Dump it Here

[Skate]

It is mind boggling how much money you can extract from the market as a retail trader, with the right amount of discipline, fortitude and conviction.

@Trendnomics makes a valid but with all-new strategies, they take time to develop.

personally worried by the markets and situation but following my systems..

There is never a good time to start trading
Luck & timing plays a significant role in the performance of any portfolio & as they say "there is never a good time to start trading". Traders need to be aware of the significance "luck & timing" will have when trading a new strategy.

Things may not go well for this strategy in the short-term
The starting date can have a big bearing on the performance of a strategy in the short term but hopefully, things will settle over the longer term. "The Platinum Strategy" will take time to develop as the markets are in turmoil at the moment, so let's be patient with the performance of my new project & hope for the best.

Follow the signals without thinking
As @qldfrog pointed out in recent posts, following your buy & sell signals consistently will be the key to the profitability of a strategy (even when you are not in agreeance with the signals).

Skate.

 

[KevinBB]

Follow the signals without thinking
As @qldfrog pointed out in recent posts, following your buy & sell signals consistently will be the key to the profitability of a strategy (even when you are not in agreeance with the signals).

The number one rule for a systematic trader.

 

[qldfrog]

The number one rule for a systematic trader.

And this is a challenge every day.last night great on NYSE..my systems still saying this morning caution, bear mode....
I think arrrgh will lose the rebound..
But no new purchase ,bear mode and Right now systems up 1.2% ,with increase cash percentage, while market down .8%
Stick to your systems indeed

 

[MovingAverage]

View attachment 132075

@Trendnomics makes a valid but with all-new strategies, they take time to develop.


There is never a good time to start trading
Luck & timing plays a significant role in the performance of any portfolio & as they say "there is never a good time to start trading". Traders need to be aware of the significance "luck & timing" will have when trading a new strategy.

Things may not go well for this strategy in the short-term
The starting date can have a big bearing on the performance of a strategy in the short term but hopefully, things will settle over the longer term. "The Platinum Strategy" will take time to develop as the markets are in turmoil at the moment, so let's be patient with the performance of my new project & hope for the best.

Follow the signals without thinking
As @qldfrog pointed out in recent posts, following your buy & sell signals consistently will be the key to the profitability of a strategy (even when you are not in agreeance with the signals).

Skate.

Spot on @Skate.

Chart below is of one of my live systems. Top green chart is the system's P&L, which includes open and closed positions.

Started trading the system in early 2015. It basically did nothing for the first 2.5 years, but really found it's momentum around mid 2017 and has really got some good traction since then. It was a real test of my patience to keep trading that system for 2.5 years and make little progress.

 

[lindsayf]

Not many could do what you have done there - great patience no doubt underpinned by well founded belief in the system

 

[MovingAverage]

Not many could do what you have done there - great patience no doubt underpinned by well founded belief in the system

Wasn't easy that's for sure--came close to pulling the pin on many occasions. The thing that kept me in there was the fact the system didn't go into serious drawdown.

If I run backtests now over that period ( Jan 2015 to Aug 2017) the real performance you see above is inline with the backtest

 

[Linus van Pelt]

Unfortunately, it's not a fix
Why? because when the next bar receives current data, Amibroker simply recalculates the "buy position" using the most recent bar that has the "opening price" for its recalculations. Trading Halts always last longer than a day & my buy positions are only "good for a day".

I admit I didn't follow all that. If you have a weekly system that trades on Monday, and you used Norgate's padding, you would have trapped for the padded bar on Monday and not taken the buy signal. So I don't see where "my buy positions are only "good for a day". " fits in, if you didn't place a buy order?

Anyway, that's not the main reason for this post.

I saw a "trick" in another forum just last night. So this isn't my original idea (not that I have that many), I'm just passing this on.

If you are using Amibroker's Pad and Align, then you can use the fact that it copies Volume to the next bar as a means of detecting a padded bar.

For example:

Padded = V==Ref(V,-1);

The chances of today's Volume being *exactly* equal to yesterday's (last bar's) Volume is statistically insignificant.

You could also say:

Padded = (V != 0) AND (V==Ref(V,-1));

to differentiate "padded" from not "traded for 2 or more days", assuming that differentiation is important to you.

This still may not address the issue you've raised, but it could be used as a proxy for Norgate's NorgatePaddingStatusTimeSeries() if you're using Amibroker's Pad and Align instead.

 

[DaveTrade]

Wasn't easy that's for sure--came close to pulling the pin on many occasions. The thing that kept me in there was the fact the system didn't go into serious drawdown.

If I run backtests now over that period ( Jan 2015 to Aug 2017) the real performance you see above is inline with the backtest

Hello MovingAverage,

I curious about the 'Max Consecutive Losses' of your system and if a good figure on this metric helped you stick with your system through this period.

 

[Skate]

Further update
@Linus van Pelt thank you for your ongoing interest. The issue that I raised was that Friday's backtest buy signals are accurate but the "additional information displayed" (shares & price) is irrelevant as it uses the previous open for its calculations. On a weekly system that's the previous Mondays open. (one week ago)

Amibroker uses the previous open for its calculations
After "Mondays open" Amibroker updates this additional information but not the buy signals. Why? because backtesting uses the most current open, the recent open is used to calculate the additional information (shares & price) being the number of shares to buy using the simple calculation: Investment $10k / share price (the opening price) equals the number of shares purchased. (after the fact)

Recalculations after Monday's open
"The Platinum Strategy" Backtest buy signals are recalculated "after" Monday's open because now it uses the last bar (Monday's bar). Because Amibroker is a programmable scientific calculator the (Pad & Align) feature fills missing data so the recalculations can be made.

Recalculations of the additional information of a buy signal
Amibroker uses one formula for this additional (number of shares & the buy price) before Mondays open & another after Mondays open. With time-shifting of time-related data, the information displayed becomes irrelevant & unusable information before the open. After Mondays open & with the positions already in the markets the additional information is also inaccurate as those calculations can only be completed when the opening price is known. All I'm saying is it's easy to come to a conclusion of the number of shares to buy after the opening price has been established.

Non-trading days
Amibrokers backtest report is a stand-alone portfolio manager. The "Portfolio Backtest Manager" buys the required number of position (in this case 10 positions) & stops generating new buy signals until one of those positions are sold. If the portfolio manager reports a buy that for one reason or another was not physically taken there is no way to delete that position. (that's my dilemma). Using the Exploration Analysis it displays all raw signals. (something that can be manipulated)

Using padding or "Buy on Monday array" isn't a fix
Whether you use Norgate's padding (that buys & recalculates the additional data using on the most recent bar with data, being Wednesday the 27th opening price) or if you stay with using the padding feature of Amibrokers it simply uses the previous Mondays data. Both of which become irrelevant when the position is not purchased). My buy condition is good only for Monday, meaning if my conditional order is not taken - the buy is purged at the end of Monday's trading.

In summary
Amibroker includes the position as a buy (using either padding system) whereas in reality the position was never purchased in the first place. Amibroker doesn't allow adjustments to be made to the Portfolio Manager to accurately display only the physical positions in the portfolio. Using my custom Exploration Analysis solves this dilemma (for me) as those signals can be manipulated.

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

Hello MovingAverage,

I curious about the 'Max Consecutive Losses' of your system and if a good figure on this metric helped you stick with your system through this period.

Very good question. For me that is a very important metric and one that drives my decision to go live or not go live with a system--even more so than % winners. It is seriously tough trading through a lot of consecutive losers and for me that messes with my head so is something I'm very sensitive to.

My backtests over 4000 historic trades have this particular system sitting at max consecutive winners of around 36 and max consecutive losers at around 20. The current figures on the live version of the system (which is shown in the graphs above) has consecutive winners at 10 and consecutive losers at 9, but that is after around 351 live trades, which is clearly far less than the 4000 trades executed in my backtests.

Definitely the max of 9 consecutive losers helped me stick to the system.

 

[Skate]

Start Date: 25th October 2021
Portfolio Capital: $100,000
Positions in the portfolio: 10
Position Size: $10,000 (no rebalancing)

Information overload
For the first week, I'll supply the relevant information & for the ongoing weekly report, I'll post only my "Equity Curve" to make the reporting simple to read & understand.

Praying didn't do me any favours
@qldfrog warning came to fruition & the strategy has started with headwinds.

"One swallow doesn't make a summer"
Meaning, a single instance of something is just that; it doesn't indicate a trend.

Weekly Report













Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Mr @Skate , as you know and repeat often, my crystal ball warning or not, one needs to stick to a well design system, and these theoretical DD could randomly arrive from the system start, a bit of luck or bad chance can influence the best of plans, and the best systems do experience DD unless they are insider trading
So i am sure your apprentices are well aware of the tumultuous times ahead;
It takes some balls (figure of style) to start a system now: kudos

 

[Skate]

No one wants to live on struggle street
My aspiration is to generate more income than I would normally spend. To me, trading isn’t about getting rich, but more about having the financial independence of being able to support myself without an income. Financial freedom has been at the very heart of all my decisions & if I could pass on one word of advice to the younger readers it would be this: "there is no better time to start creating that financial freedom than right now". If you understand the principle of paying yourself first it will set you up to achieve this freedom. Financial freedom allows you to live your life on your terms.

It takes some balls (figure of style) to start a system now: kudos

Procrastination
Many people never start trading because they’re worried about losing their money. It feels like you have to spend a lot of time & energy to get it right & if you don’t, then you might lose all of your money. This fear & self-doubt keep new traders from getting started. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

What to believe
Everybody talks about technical or fundamental analysis as they know it intimately & feed it to others with the best of intentions (most of the time). Like all skills, if you are trading for financial freedom you better make yourself comfortable as it takes an extraordinary length of time to be good at it. My point is, "there are different trading methods" that work & all you need to do is to find something that suits your lifestyle, schedule, & most of all is your personality. Your personality will ultimately decide if you can stick to a plan even when the going gets tough.

Traders who make money
Those who make money at this game all display the same trait of "always following their trading plan". They will always enter & exit a position with conviction whilst managing the trade at all times. They always keep records of every single trade & the really, really good ones, will review their trades on a regular basis.

This will be hard to imagine
Good traders are always open to new ideas as they never stop learning & even find ways to improve their trading performance. Most importantly good trader accepts there will be good times & bad times (swings & roundabouts) & how they handle themselves in difficult times will ultimately determine how successful they will be.

Skate.

 

[KevinBB]

It takes some balls (figure of style) to start a system now: kudos

There is another side to this, too.

When I trade a system, I am not trying to predict in which direction a market is going. I am merely reacting to something that has happened in the past. It is an important distinction to remember.

If a trade goes against me, then the system should get me out when it is ready to get me out. Minimising losses should be part of any good system. If a trade goes in my direction, then I'll have an extra ice cream that weekend.

KH

 

[Skate]

When I trade a system, I am not trying to predict in which direction a market is going

Really what is Technical analysis?
Technical analysis is based on the psychology of buyers & sellers, it's a game of probability where chances of success lean in your favour relying on the premise that winning trades are held longer than the losing ones as @KevinBB has just rightly pointed out.

Pattern formation & breakouts
Technical analysis is purely based on pattern formation & breakouts, as well as resistance & support levels. Traders are entering & exiting positions at different times as their analyst has a different view on the same price pattern. This is the reason why trading is so exciting.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

It's worth remembering
Trading is not easy & what makes sense is usually wrong in trading. The simple truth is "markets are not logical or reasonable" they are emotional, volatile & downright unstable most of the time. Why? because the market is nothing more than a reflection of crowd behaviour - a crowd of people that has absolutely no regard for what anyone thinks. Sometimes it's just a bunch of 'rational' people who make 'irrational' decisions.

The markets screw us
The market has the uncanny tendency to screw the most number of people "most of the time" in the shortest amount of time. One of the reasons why trading is so difficult is because "there are no rules" when it comes to trading. Anyone can buy, sell at any time for as much money as they like. It's for this very reason how others prosper by taking advantage of this. Profits are built off the back of unsuccessful traders "exiting this game" vowing never to return. Also, I should point out, losing is easy in this game.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

My current dilemma is why am I so disconnected from other traders. Market up, I go down

Self-doubt
@qldfrog at times your posts are difficult to read but it's worth remembering every dog or "frog" has its day in the sun. If your strategy has worked in the past, I'm sure it will work sometime in the future, hanging in there will be the difficult part. Until trading aligns with your methodology you could (a) pull back on the amount of position you open, (b) lower your bet size (to keep skin in the game), or (c) simply add a "Take Profit Stop" & analyse if it achieves the desired result.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Self-doubt
@qldfrog at times your posts are difficult to read but it's worth remembering every dog or "frog" has its day in the sun. If your strategy has worked in the past, I'm sure it will work sometime in the future, hanging in there will be the difficult part. Until trading aligns with your methodology you could (a) pull back on the amount of position you open, (b) lower your bet size (to keep skin in the game), or (c) simply add a "Take Profit Stop" & analyse if it achieves the desired result.

Skate.

Apologies for the posts confusion.a reflection of a confused mind i am sure?.
Later option cf trading system is something i am keen to have a look..will i be statistically ahead if i lock some of these profits. Anyway.never ending pursuit,limited time

 

[Skate]

Thinking revolves around problem-solving
Happiness is really about creating an extraordinary quality of life & living life on our terms. Living revolves around money & financial independence can have a significant effect on everything from our mental health to even our relationships. It’s so important to remember that it’s impossible to live an extraordinary life if you don’t master the game of relationships & fulfillment.

What is the point of the posts today?
Simply to condition. Everybody "knows" but few put it into practice.

What does everyone know?
How to create wealth. It's as simple as "paying yourself first" putting that money aside to trade or invest - then living off the rest.








Skate.