Dump it Here

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

I should have kept the Cat . Great results

 

[Skate]

I should have kept the Cat . Great results

Aussie Stock Forums give us an insight into how other traders think
The recent banter between @qldfrog & @ducati916 is a perfect example. When members struggle there is always a member who is willing to give their time & knowledge in the hope of helping others. I try extremely hard to keep my posts to the sheer basics.

I'm just saying
A trading system is usually most effective when "implemented consistently". One problem frequently encountered is the "difficulty" in following a system that's often difficult to maintain. A few losses & "emotions" can rule the day, second-guessing their own system.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

There are literally hundreds of ways to trade the markets
There are some much better than others but "trend following" is my all-time favourite. In saying this, you need to find an approach that you can borrow, test & then adapt to suit your own circumstances while having a deep understanding of "Risk, Trading Psychology & Emotional intelligence" as all three directly affect your trading & trading outcome. Once you have a clear understanding you can set about developing a trading strategy that will give you the confidence in trading your own structured trading system.

Education never stops
@peter2, "p2-asx-weekly-portfolio" & the "Dump it here" threads both aim to educate in their own way explaining how to capture price fluctuations by exploiting profitable repeatable patterns, whereas @Trav. thread "Amibroker Tips and Tricks" takes care of the coding education. If you do nothing more than reading these three threads you will have a sound grounding in how to trade successfully.

What I've found
One of the keys to my success is combining different strategies together. When you are able to combine less correlated strategies, it is possible to smooth drawdown, boost win rate & therefore improves your overall risk-adjusted returns. I mention ‘less correlated’ instead of ‘uncorrelated' because it's rare to find profitable strategies that are completely uncorrelated.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Having observed Mr @Skate profit graphs for some period of time, across a few systems, they all seem to display the characteristic of slowing profit prior to a drawdown of open profits. This warrants further investigation, especially as an exit tigger in-of-itself, of which the above is one way that you could play it.

Randomness of trading
The randomness of trading can fool us because most don't think probabilistically as "what we think we know" can be dangerous if not kept in perspective. Good decisions come from learning how to think well. Our return from trading is influenced by scrutiny of our systems, as-well-as controlling our emotions when the going gets tough. Also, in this game, you need "lots & lots" of luck.

Comparing to the cat is hard as mr skate has a recipe for getting in good shares that i am nowhere near finding even if he states that all the info is there in the dump it posts

Finding the next profitable trade matters
Finding the next trade comes from analysing your strategy, assessing the probability of returns & then trading it to the letter (giving yourself the best opportunity of success). It is this kind of thinking, a balance between openness to new ideas & being sceptical of everything is a fine line to tread.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I've always liked the idea of using your system's equity curve as a management tool. If your systems respond quickly to save losing open profits then you've got to accept that it will get out prematurely some times. The entry strategy of the Happy Cat is very similar to many of @Skate's systems. They're all momentum based, ie price has started to move higher. Your systems should be trading many of the same stocks that skate's systems select.

Tuning exits, stalestops, trailing stops etc for the preferred timeframe to optimize medium to long term profit/winners without losing too much open profit seems to be something Skate is particularly skilled at (and we see Peter2 do it all the time in tough times - they both make it look easy, when it obviously ain't!).

@peter2 & @Newt make some excellent points.

Equity Curve
The only way I use an "equity curve" as a tool is to keep me focused long-term. Newt's comment of not "losing too much open profit seems to be something Skate is particularly skilled at" - is an overstretch (see the graph below)

My 2-year equity curve
Traders need to endure - as there is no way to sugar coat it. Each "Blue Circle" on the chart below - hurt like a bitch. Endurance & knowing there would be better times ahead, kept me going. Persistence & endurance got me back to the green line, meaning it's taken a while but I'm back on track.



Recipe
When you combine positivity with "Patience & Persistence" it makes success achievable more quickly. Being motivated about any passion gets you started & commitment to that passion is what keeps us going. (a recipe we all should follow)

Perception & interpretation of information is always consistent with what we believe
There isn't much about the way we function that beliefs don't play a major role in as everything we perceive has a way of proving it. Simply jumping to a conclusion without bothering to assess the full range of possibilities is an inbuilt weakness we all suffer, not only as traders.

Rolling with the punches
Trading is not a smooth journey because people are the markets with their full range of emotions on display. By looking at my equity curve above you wouldn't think my strategies are consistent performers, no way. Some weeks you get punched & other weeks you take a hiding, that's just trading.

Skate.

 

[silent1a]

Hmm,


I can only see this settling back down after the meme stock craze but:

Follow your system
I was told many years ago, "Don't think you are smarter than your system"

Maybe I'm onto a winner for the February stock comp.

 

[ducati916]

There are literally hundreds of ways to trade the markets
There are some much better than others but "trend following" is my all-time favourite. In saying this, you need to find an approach that you can borrow, test & then adapt to suit your own circumstances while having a deep understanding of "Risk, Trading Psychology & Emotional intelligence" as all three directly affect your trading & trading outcome. Once you have a clear understanding you can set about developing a trading strategy that will give you the confidence in trading your own structured trading system.



What I've found
One of the keys to my success is combining different strategies together. When you are able to combine less correlated strategies, it is possible to smooth drawdown, boost win rate & therefore improves your overall risk-adjusted returns. I mention ‘less correlated’ instead of ‘uncorrelated' because it's rare to find profitable strategies that are completely uncorrelated.

Skate.

I thought that this was a very valuable post, but have only had time now to respond. Below are a list of stock based strategies. They all have their own strengths and weaknesses, but allow different psychological profiles to trade comfortably.

They also have applicability in different market environments. Some are far more defensive than a long only (mechanical/discretionary) system. Some are more aggressive. They all (obviously) have different risk/reward profiles. Some benefit from leverage, others are far too risky to leverage.

I am particularly fond of and tend to specialise in the market neutral strategies as you can (generally) go huge size w/o carrying directional risk, these are ideal to leverage, some I will comfortably go 100:1 on. Others I wouldn't dream of leveraging.

Strategies:
(a) Trend trading long;
(b) Trend trading short;
(c) Pairs trading;
(d) Event trading;
(e) Gamma scalping;
(f) Open only strategies;
(g) Close only strategies;
(h) Arbitrage;
(i) Convertible arbitrage;
(j) Earnings strategies;
(k) Carry trades;
(l) Technical trades;
(m) Fundamental trades;
(n) Mechanical trades;
(o) Convergence trades (similar, though different to pairs trades).

Time available to trade, capital, knowledge, risk tolerance, psychological profile, and what your broker can actually supply you with re. instruments, will all play a part in those strategies that you can trade successfully and those that you should probably stay away from.

jog on
duc

 

[Warr87]

I like the idea of market neutral positions. May be something I will look into later. i'm under the impression that this wouldn't be the easiest in australia though? but i'm naive on the topic.

 

[qldfrog]

I like the idea of market neutral positions. May be something I will look into later. i'm under the impression that this wouldn't be the easiest in australia though? but i'm naive on the topic.

Mr Ducati @ducati916 went into a bit of explanation about the Market neutral positions onh is Bull market thread.Very very interested but as I understood it:
- probably better suited to a bigger (US) market;
- some of the "protection" does not seem that easy /cheap to implement
That is what I took of a quick maybe misunderstood review of it.

 

[Warr87]

Yea I assume its better suited to larger markets. Even using options, while doable in aus, appears to be easier and more effective in the US. We have some bear ETFs too that add some possibilities but the great access to larger markets with more liquidity and more instruments has a greater advantage. when i eventually trade in the US, I will likely start with with long-only but want to add a shorting component to be more market neutral. But thats for the future. duc implements a lot of different ways to go about it. He is much more diverse and his flexibility is something to be admired!

 

[Skate]

trade comfortably in different market environments.

I'm often asked, "what makes a good strategy?"
A good trading strategy is not necessarily one with a high proportion of winning trades, rather it is the one that is reliably profitable & robust across a range of "market indexes".

It might come as a surprise
The entry condition is the least important aspect of designing a profitable trading system as they are a dime-a-dozen. A profitable trading strategy needs to survive during periods of adverse movements in the market. Finessing the exit is where the money is ultimately made. Selling a position too early or selling it too late is a recipe for poor performance & disappointment.

All strategies need to be tested & evaluated - that’s a given
Thoroughly evaluating a trading strategy will improve the confidence needed to trade it, while giving an insight into its behaviour. It also pays to remember that all backtests apply to past performance & there is no guarantee of the same performance going forward. Trading a well-evaluated strategy with good backtest results would most likely ensure the balance of probability would be in your favour.

Stick to the plan
If we can stick religiously to the trading rules, you could be confident of producing profitable outcomes in the future. Also, when live trading, don't be tempted to alter the strategy when the going gets tough.

Skate.

 

[TJW11]

I was wondering if anyone knew of an “investor group” that meets with a particular interest in Amibroker. Would love to participate to grow my abilities here. With the advent of Zoom into our lives, online would also be good. Possibly the participants and watchers of this thread may like to create a ‘Skate” group ?

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[DaveDaGr8]

I was wondering if anyone knew of an “investor group” that meets with a particular interest in Amibroker. Would love to participate to grow my abilities here. With the advent of Zoom into our lives, online would also be good. Possibly the participants and watchers of this thread may like to create a ‘Skate” group ?

In Melbourne the ATAA have a SIG that meets once a month. I went a few times years ago so i can't vouch for how they are now.

 

[TJW11]

In Melbourne the ATAA have a SIG that meets once a month. I went a few times years ago so i can't vouch for how they are now.

Thanks, I'm in Sydney so Melbourne for a physical meeting doesn't work. However open to online.

Basic question is whether there are "investor groups" out there that would be into systematic trading as opposed to "quasi" fundamentalists?

 

[peter2]

Newcomers to investing and trading very often don't realise the value that is offered by more experienced people in the profession. For example, beginners won't realise the immense value within the pages of @Skate's ebook for beginning traders available here at ASF.

Another recent example is @DaveDaGr8 's excellent suggestion of the ATAA meetings. The ATAA is a national association with monthly meeting in every state. During the pandemic meetings have been presented online, recorded and archived for it's members. There's now hundreds of presentations covering almost every trading style. If you can't find a trading style that appeals to you in this archive then you're not looking or you're not cut out to be a technical trader. All beginning traders should seek out this easily accessible knowledge base for their education. You can't start a journey without knowing how you're going to get to your destination.

 

[Skate]

All projects come to an end
I had planned to retire the "HappyCat Strategy" at the end of February but I have decided to pull the pin early.

The Action Strategy & the HappyCat Strategy
Both exercises were dual-layered. The first layer was to give confidence to those who were itching to have a go at trading as both strategies provided the perfect vehicle (IMHO). The second layer was for others to watch a small portfolio develop from scratch in real-time.

Minor correction
There will not be a HappyCat update next Friday as the strategy has come to its end.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Newcomers to investing and trading very often don't realise the value that is offered by more experienced people in the profession. For example, beginners won't realise the immense value within the pages of @Skate's ebook for beginning traders available here at ASF.

Kind words are always appreciated.

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

G'day Skate,
I came looking for the weekly results, didn't see the "Happy Cat" had finished up last week.

It would seem that we have come to the end of a chapter?. I hope there will be many more, or at least some.

For anyone reading this, I will say that I have learnt a large majority of what I know about trading and investing through Skates thread.

The knowledge learnt here has been applied and shaped in my own quirky discretionary manner and I have developed methods which invariably work for me and my nonuniformed brain.

I think there's a lot to be said for a coded strategy, a trading plan locked in cement.
Skate has proven that time and again.
Personally, I hope to be starting a strategy like this in the next week or 2.

Whilst it is fun trading around like a chook with no head (to a degree), returns of circa 50% are achievable with a lot less stress.

If one was to delve into and learn all the concepts mentioned in this thread, I am convinced they too would become successful at what they strive to achieve in their trading or investing future.

Thank you Skate.