Dump it Here

[rnr]

Skate made an explanation in Dollar terms between Skates exit and Willoneau exit for MGX - maybe Willoneau was implying Skate do the same for NEA which shows that perhaps a stale exit doesn't always maximise the profit outcome. . .

Skates Dollar outcome for NEA
1. A $25K position in NEA @ $0.745 buys 33,557 shares
2. 1st exit @ $0.655 results in capital of $21,980 (a loss of $3,020)
3. Using capital of $21,980, 2nd entry @ $0.92 buys 23,891 shares
4. 2nd exit @ $0.96 results in capital of $22,935 (a gain of $955)
5. Using capital of $22,935, 3rd entry @ $1.075 buys 21,334 shares
6. 3rd exit @ $1.665 results in capital of $35,521 (a gain of $12,587)
7. Using capital of $35,521, 4th entry @ $2.43 buys 14,617 shares
8. 4th exit @ $3.32 results in final capital of $48,528 (a gain of $13,009)

Skates result - $25K capital has grown to $48,528 a total gain of $23,528

Willonea Dollar outcome for NEA
1. A $25K position in NEA @0.745 buys 33,557 shares
2. No exits, his trade is still running @ $3.33 for capital of $111,744 (an unrealised gain of $86,744.

Willonea result - $25K capital has grown to $111,744 a total unrealised gain of $86,744

A difference of $63,216 and that is after only one trade.

We are all different and we all choose to trade according to different rules which produce different results.

@willy1111

Your comparison is a tad short of being valid as I would doubt that @Skate keeps his spare cash in his back pocket when he is not in a NEA trade.

 

[Skate]

@willy1111

Your comparison is a tad short of being valid as I would doubt that @Skate keeps his spare cash in his back pocket when he is not in a NEA trade.

@rnr my post has not been lost on you & you are correct - I make every dollar earns its keep, my soldiers need to be in there fighting for me not being idle hoping for the next breakout to come.

Lets talk about "Opportunity Costs"
For the benefits of others @rnr has pointed out a very important fact. @willy1111 neglected to mention "Opportunity Costs" that represent the benefits trader misses out on when choosing one alternative method of trading over another.

Not well known
"Opportunity Costs" can be easily overlooked if one is not careful. Understanding the potential of missed opportunities by choosing to ride a stale position instead of catching fast moving trends can’t be overlooked.

My example was to demonstrate a "Stale Exit" rather than debate the results of one position or infer my method of trading is better than anyone else, the 'Dump it here' thread is an educational thread for the betterment of others & everyone's input is valued.

Skate.

 

[willoneau]

Willy1111, spot on I noticed it by eye balling just not as accurate as you layed out. but was used to highlight different approaches and add some thought.

 

[willoneau]

Hi nrn, your point would only be valid if skate picked a wining trade and not a losing one with that spare cash.

 

[willy1111]

Skate provided an example of the difference in exits on MGX which one may read as implying a stale exit produces better profit.

Perhaps it was cherry picked to demonstrate this.

Willoneau raised NEA as another stock to do a comparison on.

I just did the calculation to demonstrate an alternative view and provide some perspective that a stale stop doesn’t always provide a better profit outcome.

Yes NEA was cherry picked...as was MGX

One trade does not make a system.

I'm not arguing for or against just attempting to provide balance/perspective for the reader.

The opportunity cost for Skate not staying with the trade all the way through may have been $63k, then again his capital may have been applied to another stock...so many variables so impossible to determine hence the comparison was done just on NEA for simplistic sake.

It is great people are willing to share their ideas as others may not have thought of it and can test it themselves on their own systems to see if it enhances their results.

 

[willoneau]

I agree and was making that point to try and create a discussion and get people thinking. Both skate and myself know our systems well, both good and bad points. I know my system can leave large amounts of profits on the table too.

 

[willoneau]

Skate provided an example of the difference in exits on MGX which one may read as implying a stale exit produces better profit.

Perhaps it was cherry picked to demonstrate this.

Willoneau raised NEA as another stock to do a comparison on.

I just did the calculation to demonstrate an alternative view and provide some perspective that a stale stop doesn’t always provide a better profit outcome.

Yes NEA was cherry picked...as was MGX

One trade does not make a system.

I'm not arguing for or against just attempting to provide balance/perspective for the reader.

The opportunity cost for Skate not staying with the trade all the way through may have been $63k, then again his capital may have been applied to another stock...so many variables so impossible to determine hence the comparison was done just on NEA for simplistic sake.

It is great people are willing to share their ideas as others may not have thought of it and can test it themselves on their own systems to see if it enhances their results.

I'm glad you took the time to look at it and hope to hear more of what you think.

 

[willoneau]

My example was to demonstrate a "Stale Exit" rather than debate the results of one position or infer my method of trading is better than anyone else, the 'Dump it here' thread is an educational thread for the betterment of others & everyone's input is valued.

I am very interested in your stale exit skate looking at both the positive and negative aspect of it. Finding a compromise between them can only improve the bottom line, any idea's how anyone?

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

ideas-not-advice - thread
I wish to make a comment that was raised by @lindsayf - a thought in the back of most peoples mind about what comes after working for an income.

I am looking for some ideas on how to approach finances to position myself and wife for retirement. Nothing anyone says will be construed as financial advice...I am just finding that accountants and financial advisers are limited and conservative in their offerings...at least the ones I come across.

An old hand at this game
After reading his initial post, he's doing okay, he's switched on but having a few niggling doubts as to what the next stage of his life may bring & how he'll prepare for this. As he is a seasoned member of our community & not new to trading my advice would be the same as @ducati916 has given him, as I know he has read parts of my thread already. (Please note - the advice given by @ducati916 has been condensed)

Pep talk
I feel @lindsayf just needs a pep talk to refocus his mind that he is still on the right track & re-reading the 'Dump it here' thread will do just that.

Here's a threads that will help you. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/ Probably keep you occupied for a while.
jog on
duc

T.I.N.A.
There is no alternative (TINA) at the moment where returns can be amplified on your money other than the share market 'at the moment'. Trading isn’t about getting rich, but more about one day having the financial independence of being able to support yourself without an income.

It's not easy
Profiting from the stock market is exceedingly difficult to do consistently over a long period of time because the market is irrational and emotional. It moves in a manner that has little appreciation for what we might think is reasonable which brings me to the post by @kahuna1 - a member with a wealth of experience & a writing style dissimilar to mine.

Talking Doom & Gloom

Hmmm ,....
Well ... being a trader in many ways all my adult life, an observation is that less than 1% who try, succeed. I would NOT trade, nor risk capital.

I'm posting hope & education
Trading education plus having a suite of the right tools will give any trader a fighting chance to succeed at this game. I don't have a long history in trading (4 years) but they have been very profitable so far. I posted screen shots from CommSec of my trading results a few posts back "not to big-note myself" but posted in the spirit of helping others, giving others a method of trading that I use personally, displaying proof of the results using this method.

6 months results
The screen shot shows the performance of my HYBRID strategy from January this year, a time when my portfolio was 100% in cash. The HYBRID open profits relates to the 6 month period from 14th January 2019 to the end of trade on the 20th July 2019. The second screen shot is the HYBRID performance this week. (if interested)

Before anyone asks
I have sold 3 positions this week, meaning the market value of the HYBRID strategy is stabilised around the $1m mark. There has been an increase of $13,994 profit this week.

Summary
Hybrid Strategy + the CAM Strategy = another good week.

20th July 2019 screen shot - HYBRID strategy



28th July 2019 screen shot - HYBRID strategy (one week later)


Finally
@kahuna1 has his thoughts on the markets at the moment that differ from mine. There is an old saying "Make Hay while the sun shines" which means, Trade while an opportunity exists & to take action while a situation is favourable.

Skate.

 

[Sir Burr]

@willoneau,
Selling
Successful trading is largely the art of selling. Buying a stock is easy.

Replying here because I saw your quote in the "Blunders" thread.

Just wanted to say that I find the above quote the reverse. Buying is harder - system trading.

Reason why and in my case a weekly system, it's so simple to place a trade after the market has closed on Friday and data has come in. Run a scan and enter the trade - done. No thinking at all and takes me a few minutes and don't ever look at it again.

On the other-hand a buy, I look at the list and start at #1. Open the ASX site and check for any announcements that might make me select the next one down ie: takeovers or anything that might make me bypass it.

Then, if I'm fully invested I need to wait (using IB) for a sell and capital becomes available to place the new buy between 10-10:10am. If I'm NOT fully invested then I can just place the trade any-time over the weekend.

In my case, I say buying is harder

 

[kahuna1]

Hahah ...

I am actually bullish ... S+P to 3,165 or so ... wary mind you of realities and all time highs and shall we say super profits via NO tax in the USA and NO tax paid overseas and a healthcare system in the USA being able to charge what they want at 500% of the cost, and all this supporting USA.

Perspective ... a 5% Deficit to GDP, not unseen but very unusual 10 years post a crash. Debt off the scale corporate wise USA and govt at 200k per person with average income lower 80% PRE TAX a mere 32k.

We here, different ... but ... valuation dictated to by the USA as always.

On the 1% trading making it, I mean day traders and very short term traders. Difference in terminology, sure now ... as market rises ... even a retard males money. What sorts them out, and this is of course an eventual outcome is a sideways market or god forbid downwards one.

The thing is, an IF ... is not the question but WHEN ... for say Google paying no tax to anyone anywhere and even avoiding GST, or USA drug-makers, for NOW price gouging at 400% the cost and selling in Mexico or Canada the very same drug ... identical made in the same factory for 3-,4,5 and even in some cases 50 times the price.

Big picture and ... well, perspective few have. Not suggesting a crash tomorrow and not even soon, I do however seem to dance to a different drum and beat to most. A mere 7 months ago, I felt like a bank teller ... then a magic rally, so I reduced, then another crash, and pre election I was wearing the uniform and again magic rally .... this one overnight. Again less amused and reduced drastically as valuation went from cheap to expensive.

Meanwhile underlying stuff going backwards, whilst price again hits those highs ....

Each to their own and yep my writing style, and thought process different.

 

[willoneau]

On the 1% trading making it, I mean day traders and very short term traders. Difference in terminology, sure now ... as market rises ... even a retard males money. What sorts them out, and this is of course an eventual outcome is a sideways market or god forbid downwards one.

Totally agree on this ,

 

[willoneau]

Replying here because I saw your quote in the "Blunders" thread.

Just wanted to say that I find the above quote the reverse. Buying is harder - system trading.

Reason why and in my case a weekly system, it's so simple to place a trade after the market has closed on Friday and data has come in. Run a scan and enter the trade - done. No thinking at all and takes me a few minutes and don't ever look at it again.

On the other-hand a buy, I look at the list and start at #1. Open the ASX site and check for any announcements that might make me select the next one down ie: takeovers or anything that might make me bypass it.

Then, if I'm fully invested I need to wait (using IB) for a sell and capital becomes available to place the new buy between 10-10:10am. If I'm NOT fully invested then I can just place the trade any-time over the weekend.

In my case, I say buying is harder

Hi Sir Burr, I was refering to the actual process of pushing the button to buy the stock if i remember correctly not all the reasons I would use to press that button.
Do you find it harder to open a trade or close it?
Once you make a decision to open a trade using what ever method you choose you just press the button The interesting part is how you manage that trade once your in it.

 

[ducati916]

Backtesting means JACK
I've stated before, backtest results mean "Jack" - but the backtest results do give an indication between test results using different parameters for evaluation.


Backtest Results
Are the backtest an accurate reflection of my trading results - no not really, they mean Jack - my actual trading results are a little better.

OOS Data
For others - "Out of sample data", is data that your strategy has not seen before.

Paper Trading
Running your strategy using (OOS) data (paper trading) is the only results you should take notice of when "your cash" is on the line. Paper trading measures the true worth of any strategy. All other trading results not using OOS data mean 'JACK ****' to me & I really mean this.

Skate.

This little exchange interested me.

The backtesting [and backtested results] are a hypothesis about the market. It is valuable because it is falsifiable [Popper].

The OOS is the testing of that hypothesis, using real or paper trades [no difference].

Popper's methodology is the only valid methodology for mechanical based systems which are a hypothesis on the market as it was historically, which provides the boundaries of the system [falsifiability] going forward. Which is simply to say, if its broken, you need to know its broken.

The methodology selected, should have as part of its design, the ability to protect the trader from asymmetry and skewness.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[willoneau]

Hi Skate , your dump it here is getting quite big, any thoughts about opening a new thread about your systems mainly instead of general stuff that you started dump it with?

 

[peter2]

I'm comfortable knowing that all contributions from skate are in the one thread. I also understand that if we're wanting to look for something in particular then it becomes very time consuming loading pages and scanning all the posts until we find the start of the topic of interest.

@Joe Blow Does this forum have the facility for the OP to edit the first post in a thread so that links may be placed to the start of topics?
eg.
Link to Skate's ebook download.
Link to start of discussion on the Hybrid mechanical system.
Link to backtesting results of the Hybrid system.
Link to the start of discussion on the CAM mechanical strategy.
Link to the start of the MAP mechanical strategy.
Link for important info for beginners (also in the ebook).

 

[willoneau]

Thanx peter2, I like to re read some of the points skate make referring to systems and yes I have found it frustrating to locate.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

This little exchange interested me.

The backtesting [and backtested results] are a hypothesis about the market. It is valuable because it is falsifiable [Popper].

At one level, yes. But there are invisible forces which have a far greater influence on profits than the system ever could.

[edit out qldfrog - different systems]