Dump it Here

[willoneau]

hi BlindSquirrel , not sure what you mean?

 

[willoneau]

 

[BlindSquirrel]

hi BlindSquirrel , not sure what you mean?

Al Ordinaries currently 6862.40, all time high was on 31/10/2007 @ 3873.20

I've basically just restated the previous post without so much jargon.

 

[willoneau]

Do you use it in your trading BlindSquirrel?

 

[BlindSquirrel]

No, just as a general interest on the current overall ASX market.

 

[willoneau]

OK , I'll get my crystal ball out . I have read some were that the bull run should stop in 2022 sometime so using that time frame lets look at what might happen on the chart.




PS, I don't use my crystal ball to trade with.

 

[Skate]

If you look at Skates 'Dump it here' thread you will find reference to a stale stop that he uses, which I believe is based on ROC(period)... period can be optimised for daily / weekly systems

If you're going to use stops for exits, a "stale" test makes sense. Really though, I think it's about using the right tool for the job.

I have been reading Skate's thread, it is an encyclopedia of information and food for thought. Great work from Skate and all the contributors. I haven't looked deeply into ROC (Rate Of Change) indicator but might have a look into it.

To my previous post about my "Stale Stop" exit that I have explained using the analogy of Clouds, Rain & an Umbrella.

@willoneau posted his chart of [ASX:MGX] in the “Speculative Stock Portfolio” thread of his strategy entry & exit positions. I'm using his chart as a comparison of his trailing stop verses my "Stale Stop" EXIT.

F.Y.I
The HYBRID strategy had taken the same trade.

Comparison Charts
I’m posting my HYBRID chart with the entry & exit positions. I've included the same chart with comments that explain the exit using the "Stale Stop" verses @willoneau trailing stop exit - There is a comparison between signals & profits.

@willoneau - MGX chart



HYBRID strategy "Stale Stop" Example Chart - MGX chart (Plain chart)



HYBRID strategy - MGX chart (with explanations)

Selling
Successful trading is largely the art of selling. Buying a stock is easy. It is determining when to cut our losses or when to take our profits that is hard. Because it is so hard to determine when it is the right time to sell, many just don’t do it.

Explanation in Dollar terms
1. A $25K position in MGX @ $0.65 buys 38,461 shares
2. Both @willoneau & the Hybrid Strategy enters at the same price of $0.65
3. The HYBRID strategy exits at $1.05 a profit of $15,384 whereas
4. @willoneau exits at $0.90 (by his chart) a profit of $9,614 (using a $25K position size)
5. A difference of $5,770 in profit between the two strategies & that is only after one trade.

Using a Stale Stop
A "Stale Stop" is an advantage in trading whereas adding a "Take Profit" stop is a disadvantage, which is another story for another time.

Skate.

 

[willoneau]

Hi skate , interesting analogy of MGX and something to think about.
BUT and there is always a but, what about NEA for example?
PS I added the rain.

 

[willoneau]

Explanation in Dollar terms
1. A $25K position in MGX @ $0.65 buys 38,461 shares
2. Both @willoneau & the Hybrid Strategy enters at the same price of $0.65
3. The HYBRID strategy exits at $1.05 a profit of $15,384 whereas
4. @willoneau exits at $0.90 (by his chart) a profit of $9,614 (using a $25K position size)
5. A difference of $5,770 in profit between the two strategies & that is only after one trade.

Just a minor point skate I actually closed the position at 1.20 were arrow is.

 

[Skate]

Hi skate , interesting analogy of MGX and something to think about. BUT and there is always a but, what about NEA for example?
PS I added the rain.View attachment 96389

Hi @willoneau

I'm confused by your statement in BOLD - I'm unsure what you are asking or implying. I can comment on [NEA] as its been a good money spinner for me. I kept jumping in & out of the position when there was money to be made. When [NEA] went off the boil, I put my capital to work elsewhere, apparently you didn't do the same.

It's confirmed - we are different traders
Your chart & my chart shows that we trade differently, we think about making money differently & we hold positions differently.

I'm at a loss
I can't see your reasoning why you locked up your capital when [NEA] was doing nothing, actually I'm dumbfounded.

A stumbling block
Too many seem to think that if they sell a stock, they are somehow prevented from buying it back again. "Not so". For most traders, the biggest stumbling blocks to selling are mental.



My Question
Why would you hold a position when its doing nothing? (refer to my Stumbling Block quote above)

Skate.

 

[willoneau]

Hi skate, i agree we trade differently to some extent and i am trying to learn from your way to see how different they are and maybe meld together. The point i was making was that i don't know what can happen at any time, so leaving the trade on and following my strategy is what i do. It would be interesting to see the difference in return between the two, I am still in it but not sure how much longer. I don't have a stale exit in my system and have noted that price can consolidate in sideways pattern then have an explosive move which i like to be on, just my thoughts.

 

[willoneau]

I don't think price does nothing as tech/a says it can be in accumulation mode or distribution, i know which one i would rather try to locate.
If only a small portion of capital is tied up in the trade and your capital exposure isn't high why not hold the position. Extra cream on top if stock pays dividends too

 

[investtrader]

There are plenty of trading books and blogs that just cherry pick charts. System trading is not about just one trade. A loss of momentum stop may be good for one system but also can hurt another system - the slowing of the trend may be just that and not a true exit. Different systems perform differently according to market conditions and issue traded, even given similar long term metrics.

 

[willoneau]

Hi investtrader, not sure what you are getting at referring to the discussion between skate and myself?

 

[willoneau]

investtrader, if you don't mind me asking what type of trader/ investor are you?
I learn through discussion and everyone has their take on things which may or may not be helpful to me. Quick quote i read in a book (trading)which has stuck with me for ages.
A bloke was chatting to his mate and mentioned all the ways to skin a cat, at which points his mate chirped up and said, and the cat doesn't like any of them.

 

[investtrader]

Willoneau
Yes, just commenting on different ways of trading the same charts - as you were discussing with Skate.
I trade weekly longer term trends on ASX, using my own Amibroker systems for over 10 years (missed some years due to various personal & business reasons).

 

[willoneau]

Thanx investtrader, just not sure were the cherry picking came from?

 

[willoneau]

investtrader, i would be interested in your take on things and how your weekly strategy plays out , both skate and i have weekly systems. Added interest would be thought provoking?

 

[Boggo]

...
A stumbling block
Too many seem to think that if they sell a stock, they are somehow prevented from buying it back again. "Not so". For most traders, the biggest stumbling blocks to selling are mental.

Skate.

Slightly off topic Skate but displaying how I agree entirely.
Hit them again and again if they are going the right way, RMD up over 5% today

(click to expand)

 

[willy1111]

Hi @willoneau

I'm confused by your statement in BOLD - I'm unsure what you are asking or implying.

Skate made an explanation in Dollar terms between Skates exit and Willoneau exit for MGX - maybe Willoneau was implying Skate do the same for NEA which shows that perhaps a stale exit doesn't always maximise the profit outcome. . .

Skates Dollar outcome for NEA
1. A $25K position in NEA @ $0.745 buys 33,557 shares
2. 1st exit @ $0.655 results in capital of $21,980 (a loss of $3,020)
3. Using capital of $21,980, 2nd entry @ $0.92 buys 23,891 shares
4. 2nd exit @ $0.96 results in capital of $22,935 (a gain of $955)
5. Using capital of $22,935, 3rd entry @ $1.075 buys 21,334 shares
6. 3rd exit @ $1.665 results in capital of $35,521 (a gain of $12,587)
7. Using capital of $35,521, 4th entry @ $2.43 buys 14,617 shares
8. 4th exit @ $3.32 results in final capital of $48,528 (a gain of $13,009)

Skates result - $25K capital has grown to $48,528 a total gain of $23,528

Willonea Dollar outcome for NEA
1. A $25K position in NEA @0.745 buys 33,557 shares
2. No exits, his trade is still running @ $3.33 for capital of $111,744 (an unrealised gain of $86,744.

Willonea result - $25K capital has grown to $111,744 a total unrealised gain of $86,744

A difference of $63,216 and that is after only one trade.

We are all different and we all choose to trade according to different rules which produce different results.