Dump it Here

[divs4ever]

It's the way of the world these days, I've heard some psychologists liken it to the artificial quick rewards with computer games. You see it in every industry, young people barely coming out of their diapers expecting top money equivalent to someone in the job for years.

no the short cut/quick fix has always been a desired target , but not it is better-packaged and better advertised

if people stopped looking for that short cut ( in everything ) creativity and innovation would stop to a crawl

 

[farmerge]

Unfortunately, now I must away to work on a substantial fencing quote that if I win it will be the start of a good year for us.

 

[TimeISmoney]

no the short cut/quick fix has always been a desired target , but not it is better-packaged and better advertised

if people stopped looking for that short cut ( in everything ) creativity and innovation would stop to a crawl

My parent's whole lives were built around shortcuts, and they've led a life of misery with me running around trying to fix their shortcuts after the damage was done.

Developing tech, sciences and procedures so that things can be done faster is a whole other matter though and there are definitely no short cuts to education.

 

[farmerge]

Quote completed
No doubt those of you East of the WA border will hear the screams and shouting from the insurance company over the costings.
First guess they will cry poor, then make a cash offer settlement, which I know the owner will reject in a blink of the eye.

 

[qldfrog]

Quote completed
No doubt those of you East of the WA border will hear the screams and shouting from the insurance company over the costings.
First guess they will cry poor, then make a cash offer settlement, which I know the owner will reject in a blink of the eye.

Fence destroyed by wild fire?

 

[farmerge]

Fence destroyed by wild fire?

Was all 3 rail plastic about 1200 metres all up 1/4 mil in the costings.

 

[qldfrog]

Was all 3 rail plastic about 1200 metres all up 1/4 mil in the costings.

Plastic...one of these horsey ladies with deep pockets husband?
You know the ones...
Was locating corner posts on new internal fence yesterday..can still not dig holes as even my markers stakes are creating wells..so wet...
And so far away from the investment thread...let's go back to the subject

 

[Skate]

It’s about making decisions
No matter how successful a system is or how good your rules are, consistent profits will be difficult to obtain without training yourself to be aware when your emotions start to rise to the surface taking over your decision process.

Optimism Bias and Framing Effect
Understanding the "Optimism Bias and Framing Effect" refers to the tendency for our brain to perceive and evaluate information in a way that is more favourable to us, even if the information itself is not. We concentrate on the rewards rather than the risks.

Impact on Decision-Making
In the context of an investment opportunity, individuals may find an 80% chance of success more appealing than a 20% chance of failure due to optimism bias (Daniel Kahneman Quote). Our brain focuses on the positive aspects and downplays the negative aspects. Doing so can lead to irrational decision-making, overestimate the chances of success and underestimate the chances of failure.

Unchanged Probabilities
It's crucial to recognise that regardless of how the information is framed, the actual probability of success or failure remains unchanged. The investment opportunity still carries an 80% chance of success and a 20% chance of failure. Being aware of this bias is essential, as it allows for decisions to be based on objective analysis of the facts, rather than relying solely on emotional or instinctual responses.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Trading an Investment Strategy
I'm considering a new investment strategy that involves trading an investment portfolio as a side hustle. My current investment strategy focuses on dividends and franking credits. I'm looking to complement this approach with a colour-based strategy that reacts to market sentiment with each data update.

I'm interested in using 'The Ducati Aqua Bar Strategy' as a starting point
But I will likely modify it to suit my specific needs and goals. The strategy is straightforward, involving actioning the colour-coded bars intraday or end of the day.

To understand the Charts
Buy when the chart price bars turn AQUA - 'intraday' or at the 'end-of-day' data (yet to be decided). The buy and sell signals are displayed for (ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG and WDS). While the strategy is far from perfect, it's still in the early stages of development, and I am actively working to refine and improve it.















Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

Trading an Investment Strategy
I'm considering a new investment strategy that involves trading an investment portfolio as a side hustle. My current investment strategy focuses on dividends and franking credits. I'm looking to complement this approach with a colour-based strategy that reacts to market sentiment with each data update.

I'm interested in using 'The Ducati Aqua Bar Strategy' as a starting point
But I will likely modify it to suit my specific needs and goals. The strategy is straightforward, involving actioning the colour-coded bars intraday or end of the day.

To understand the Charts
Buy when the chart price bars turn AQUA - 'intraday' or at the 'end-of-day' data (yet to be decided). The buy and sell signals are displayed for (ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG and WDS). While the strategy is far from perfect, it's still in the early stages of development, and I am actively working to refine and improve it.

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Skate.

would your 'side-hustle ' still be the same 5 'core holdings' or shares that have wider swings when they move , i suggest the latter although sacrifices might be needed elsewhere ( like relaxing the franking credit hurdle or relatively reliable divs )
for those selected stocks ( or maybe 5 of a watch-list of 10 , because some might take weeks to become attractively shifted )

good luck

 

[Skate]

would your 'side-hustle ' still be the same 5 'core holdings'

@divs4ever, thanks for taking an interest. This will be a side hustle. My investment strategy stays unchanged.

I suggest the latter although sacrifices might be needed elsewhere ( like relaxing the franking credit hurdle or relatively reliable divs )
for those selected stocks ( or maybe 5 of a watch-list of 10 , because some might take weeks to become attractively shifted )

The trading system I’ve developed is designed with simplicity in mind, requiring only minimal system resources. It utilises the widely recognised (MACD) indicator to determine optimal entry and exit points for positions on the ASX200. This indicator is not only reliable but also straightforward to implement, making it an ideal choice for this strategy. Initially, I considered adapting the ‘Ducati Aqua Bar Strategy’ for my purposes. However, to maintain clarity and ease of use, I opted to craft this strategy from the ground up. The result is a concise and efficient code that elegantly encapsulates the strategy’s essence

Here are a few examples of charts
The strategy is in the development phase









Skate.

 

[Skate]

Getting there
Based on an interim backtest report of the "(MACD) Investment Strategy" from 1st January 2024 to 8th April 2024, the initial results are promising and here’s my condensed evaluation:

Profitability
1. The strategy yielded a 10.44% net profit, translating to a gain of $10,438.75 from an initial capital of $100,000.
2. The annual return rate stands at an impressive 43.16%.

Risk Management
1. The maximum system drawdown was limited to -5.49%, indicating a controlled risk level.
2. A recovery factor of 1.75 suggests a reasonable ability to recover from losses.

Trade Performance
1. The win rate was 60%, with an average profit per trade of $521.94.
2. The profit factor of 3.94 demonstrates that the total profits significantly outweigh the total losses.

Risk-Adjusted Returns
The Sharpe ratio of 1.11 reflects a favourable risk-adjusted return on the trades.

Summary
Even though the strategy is still a work in progress the overall results is promising with good profitability, controlled risk, and efficient trade performance.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Tracking Today's Signals
The "(MACD) Investment Strategy" is designed to be highly responsive, generating signals every hour of the trading day. This can be an advantage as it allows for quick action in response to market changes. To be clear, this is a trading strategy of ASX200 companies worthy of being included in an investment portfolio. I'm trading investment-worthy companies jumping on and off at timed intervals.

Buy Signals
Eliminating short-term trades and focusing on longer-term trades will require a different approach and more strategic thinking. Remember, every trading strategy has its strengths and weaknesses, and it’s important to code a strategy that fits the storyboard of what this strategy is trying to achieve.

# This investment trading strategy should be a reflection of the goals I'm aiming for.









In conclusion
Short-term trades could potentially impede the effectiveness of this style of trading.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

i hope your long(er ) term trading strategy does better than mine

i have only a one in three success rate , now sure all three are in uncrystallized gain territory , but the key term is trading only one successful cycle does not translate to 'a trading vehicle ' to me

good luck

 

[TimeISmoney]

i hope your long(er ) term trading strategy does better than mine

i have only a one in three success rate , now sure all three are in uncrystallized gain territory , but the key term is trading only one successful cycle does not translate to 'a trading vehicle ' to me

good luck

Four of my stocks were doing well until this week, now all the gains are almost all gone.

One of the AI portfolios is holding up well considering they were bought in the peak.

 

[divs4ever]

my strategy included shaving off some capital gains , irregularly but say every year or two , adding in the dips/slides

but so far only QBE has been successful on multiple occasions

 

[Skate]

Four of my stocks were doing well until this week, now all the gains are almost all gone.

Today's Signals - The "(MACD) Investment Strategy"
Both (EMR) and (PME) are doing well but the MACD indicator reflects a short-term trade.



Skate.

 

[ducati916]

my strategy included shaving off some capital gains , irregularly but say every year or two , adding in the dips/slides

but so far only QBE has been successful on multiple occasions

Mr divs,

That should work well. Are you saying that it was less than stellar?

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

two stocks haven't returned to the target area , and unless i can 'average down' ( or the less likely rise in div. returns ) they fail to meet the div. yield i am hoping for

option B ( and still a possible choice ) is to exit both ( in a profit ) and look for other targets , they just don't bounce enough for me

i call trading a higher risk sport , therefore i am not happy with 4% ( or less ) returns

that might sound harsh , but the taxman would like some of the pie as well

 

[Skate]

Twitter holds a captivating allure, much like a light attracting a moth
I find myself intrigued by the frequent attempts to impersonate @Nick Radge. The imposters inevitably "adopt the same avatar and a similar username" to draw attention. Despite impersonation being generally discouraged, I’ve noticed this issue persisting. I’ve mentioned in previous posts how fake Twitter accounts are used purposefully.

I’ve observed a pattern
The imposter @theechartist seems to have a follower, "@ppeakey007", which doesn’t surprise me. The striking similarities lead me to suspect they might be the same entity.









Skate.