Dump it Here

[frugal.rock]

Updated cell format

I'm guessing that the cell fill and font colour for the total column changes if it gets into the black?

 

[Skate]

I'm guessing that the cell fill and font colour for the total column changes if it gets into the black?

@frugal.rock, you were nearly correct. If you change "if" to "when" your assessment will be correct.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Reporting a weekly strategy daily



Skate.

 

[ducati916]

Don't entirely agree with this. One of the major benefits of trading the weekly charts is to remove ourselves from the day to day volatility and the associated emotional ups and downs.

However, I agree that a huge daily down bar in a stock maybe an early exit signal and may save a few dollars while waiting to the EOW exit signal.

Mr Skate,

I'm with Peter on this one.

A weekly strategy (should) be a weekly strategy. That's what was tested, that's the rules. If not, then it's not a mechanical system, it's a discretionary system masquerading as a mechanical system. It might even be more dangerous than that as our trader clearly is in breach of any form of discipline whatsoever and clearly is trading on emotion alone.

Now I accept that this is a paper trading exercise. However, a paper trading exercise is to test under realistic conditions, the already tested/accepted system. Otherwise what are you doing? Developing a strategy on the fly?

The whole point of a mechanical system are that the rules are set: are inviolate: and are followed.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Mr Skate,

I'm with Peter on this one.

A weekly strategy (should) be a weekly strategy. That's what was tested, that's the rules. If not, then it's not a mechanical system, it's a discretionary system masquerading as a mechanical system. It might even be more dangerous than that as our trader clearly is in breach of any form of discipline whatsoever and clearly is trading on emotion alone.

Now I accept that this is a paper trading exercise. However, a paper trading exercise is to test under realistic conditions, the already tested/accepted system. Otherwise what are you doing? Developing a strategy on the fly?

The whole point of a mechanical system are that the rules are set: are inviolate: and are followed.

jog on
duc

@ducati916, I appreciate your perspective on the importance of adhering strictly to the rules of a mechanical system. While it's crucial to adhere to the rules of a mechanical system, it's also important to consider the potential for refinement and improvement.

By providing daily updates, I was simply aiming to offer a more comprehensive view of the weekly strategy's performance. This approach doesn't undermine the mechanical system but rather enhances the understanding of it.

Furthermore, I've been working on refining the "Dual Breakout Strategy" by adjusting the "Percentage Up" buy condition parameters, which has shown promising results. This is not a deviation from the strategy but an attempt to optimise it based on new insights. This has led to some promising improvements.

Normally, I would have closed the initial "paper" trading strategy and started anew with these changes. However, since this exercise had already commenced, I felt it was only fair to continue with it.

Another challenge that I faced was the use of faulty Norgate data, which I previously discussed in detail. Despite this limitation, I believe that the modifications I've made have improved the strategy's performance.

Skate.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Seems to me you are you arguing with an Academic
I could be wrong ?

Academics by Definition TEACH because they CANNOT DO

I ask you
Have you ever seen an Academic do anything in Real Time ?

 

[Skate]

Seems to me you are you arguing with an Academic
I could be wrong ?

@Captain_Chaza, I deeply respect the insightful contributions from @ducati916 and @peter2. Their unique experiences provide a wealth of knowledge that is truly invaluable. Their contributions to the discussion are greatly appreciated, and their experience and expertise are evident in the information they provide.

It's important to recognise that everyone brings unique perspectives and experiences to the table, and it's crucial to learn from one another. I may not have the same level of experience as these members, but I'm eager to learn from their experiences and apply their insights to my own understanding.

Skate.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

@Captain_Chaza, I deeply respect the insightful contributions from @ducati916 and @peter2. Their unique experiences provide a wealth of knowledge that is truly invaluable. Their contributions to the discussion are greatly appreciated, and their experience and expertise are evident in the information they provide.

It's important to recognise that everyone brings unique perspectives and experiences to the table, and it's crucial to learn from one another. I may not have the same level of experience as these members, but I'm eager to learn from their experiences and apply their insights to my own understanding.

Skate.

NB; Captain Peter the 2nd is not an ACADEMIC !

 

[Skate]

it's a full on bear market

YTD Update
A quick update on how my trading is progressing. After a strong July, my fortunes took a turn for the worse in August. It was a classic case of going from hero to zero, as the gains and losses of the first two months effectively neutralized each other.

September, however, was a roaring success that put me back on track, only to be followed by an uninspiring October. The month was inconsistent, with gains one week being offset by losses the next.

As we step into November, I’m crossing all my fingers and toes in anticipation. The month has kicked off on a positive note, and judging by @bigdog post today it seems likely we’re in for another up day.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Reporting a weekly strategy daily
After careful consideration of recent exchanges, I have decided to stop paper trading and weekly updates of the "Dual Breakout Strategy" and shift my focus to refining and improving the strategy for live trading.

To do this it requires a focus on ongoing improvements, rather than simply relying on the results of paper trading. While paper trading has been a valuable tool for testing and evaluating the strategy, I believe that it has reached a point where it is no longer providing sufficient educational value.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

FYI
@Captain_Chaza, the "Dual Breakout Strategy" exited to lock in profits by a take-profit stop. Monday gives another opportunity to participate in the potential further upside.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Thinking out loud
I've been thinking about how to improve and code a simple trading strategy, and I've come up with an idea that I'd like to share.

Currently, my initial idea uses a trend-following buy condition that checks if the security is in an uptrend. This works well for capturing long-term trends, but I'd like to also capture short-term trends. To do this, I'm considering adding two momentum-based conditions to check if the security's price exhibits strong upward momentum.

By combining these three conditions, I believe I can create a strategy that captures both short-term and long-term trends. The trend-following condition would help me identify the overall direction of the market, while the momentum-based conditions would help me identify when the security's price is exhibiting strong upward momentum.

Any thoughts on this idea?

Skate.

 

[DaveTrade]

Thinking out loud
I've been thinking about how to improve and code a simple trading strategy, and I've come up with an idea that I'd like to share.

Currently, my initial idea uses a trend-following buy condition that checks if the security is in an uptrend. This works well for capturing long-term trends, but I'd like to also capture short-term trends. To do this, I'm considering adding two momentum-based conditions to check if the security's price exhibits strong upward momentum.

By combining these three conditions, I believe I can create a strategy that captures both short-term and long-term trends. The trend-following condition would help me identify the overall direction of the market, while the momentum-based conditions would help me identify when the security's price is exhibiting strong upward momentum.

Any thoughts on this idea?

Skate.

@Skate if I can use the analogy of a band, the trend is the lead singer of the band but without the other instruments to provide the music, the song is not always a success. So what I'm trying to say is, long-term or short-term, you still need all the elements together that give you a high probability of success. The difference between short-term and long-term is mainly the time frame, but sometimes a short-term trade can turn into a long-term trade. I'm not sure if this is feedback that you were looking for but I just thought that I'd throw it out there.

 

[Skate]

@Skate if I can use the analogy of a band, the trend is the lead singer of the band but without the other instruments to provide the music, the song is not always a success. So what I'm trying to say is, long-term or short-term, you still need all the elements together that give you a high probability of success. The difference between short-term and long-term is mainly the time frame, but sometimes a short-term trade can turn into a long-term trade. I'm not sure if this is feedback that you were looking for but I just thought that I'd throw it out there.

@DaveTrade, thanks in advance for your input. My initial thought was to use a two-pronged approach, combining both trend and momentum analysis to help identify potential trading opportunities.

As a trend trader, I'm used to focusing on the bigger picture and identifying long-term trends. However, I'm aware that incorporating momentum to identify shorter-term opportunities might just help improve my trading.

I've managed to code such a strategy and backtests aren't too shabby.

Skate.

 

[DaveTrade]

@DaveTrade, thanks in advance for your input. My initial thought was to use a two-pronged approach, combining both trend and momentum analysis to help identify potential trading opportunities.

As a trend trader, I'm used to focusing on the bigger picture and identifying long-term trends. However, I'm aware that incorporating momentum to identify shorter-term opportunities might just help improve my trading.

I've managed to code such a strategy and backtests aren't too shabby.

Skate.

I feel like I shouldn't have made my last post as it only tells a small part of the story. The thing that makes trading so hard is the number of parts that may make up your personal form of trading and the weighting you give to each part. The time that you want to stay in the trade is one part, stock selection is another, and many other macro and micro elements to mix together and bake the particular cake that is pleasing to your pallet. It's too hard for me to find the words that describe my thoughts so I'll finish up saying that I think it's important or at least worthwhile to write out a description of the type of trading that you want to do incorporating the macro elements in the description. When the final draft has been reached then the micro elements can worked out.

 

[Skate]

I feel like I shouldn't have made my last post as it only tells a small part of the story. The thing that makes trading so hard is the number of parts that may make up your personal form of trading and the weighting you give to each part. The time that you want to stay in the trade is one part, stock selection is another, and many other macro and micro elements to mix together and bake the particular cake that is pleasing to your pallet. It's too hard for me to find the words that describe my thoughts so I'll finish up saying that I think it's important or at least worthwhile to write out a description of the type of trading that you want to do incorporating the macro elements in the description. When the final draft has been reached then the micro elements can worked out.

@DaveTrade, the "Trend Momentum Strategy" is based on a combination of technical indicators and trading rules, which are designed to identify trends and capitalise on them while managing risk through a multi-stage exit strategy.

The indicators I'm using are the Average True Range (ATR), which helps me identify the strength of the trend and the level. The trading rules are based on the concept of "PercentageUp," buy condition which ensures that we only take positions when the overall "XAO Index" is advancing.

The "Trend Momentum Strategy" also includes a multi-stage exit strategy, which involves taking profits at various levels and adjusting the stop-loss levels accordingly. This approach hopefully helps to maximise profits while minimising risk.

I've been thinking and testing this idea for a while now, and it has shown promising results. I believe that it has potential but at the same time, I want to emphasise that this strategy is not guaranteed to make a profit. It's just another tool that may help.

Skate.

 

[Sean K]

Very interesting point above about the complexity of trading for success. The most success I've had ever full time trading was simply having a sell rule. If a stock went down 5%, I sold. If it went up 10%, I sold. You could literally throw darts at the RIH dart board and win. Not sure why I'm not doing that now. I might revert to the old system next year when I inevitably fail at attempted value investing.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

This type of Comment Sinks Ships IMHO In a BIG WAY
You said
"As a trend trader, I'm used to focusing on the bigger picture and identifying long-term trends."

This has failure written ALL OVER IT as no-one has ever been able to do it in the past

I honestly hope you will be the First

From my experience "LONG TERM" is the universal "ESCAPE CLAUSE!"
Brokers hide behind it and Husbands justify their Mistakes to themselves and their wives

WE HAVE ALL BEEN THERE!

Salute and Gods' Speed

 

[DaveTrade]

Very interesting point above about the complexity of trading for success. The most success I've had ever full time trading was simply having a sell rule. If a stock went down 5%, I sold. If it went up 10%, I sold. You could literally throw darts at the RIH dart board and win. Not sure why I'm not doing that now. I might revert to the old system next year when I inevitably fail at attempted value investing.

With the safety of new traders in mind, in my opinion this approach would only work in a trending market. If the market was not trending your win/loss ratio could skew sharply towards the loss side and therefore causing your account balance to decline.

 

[farmerge]

With the safety of new traders in mind, in my opinion this approach would only work in a trending market. If the market was not trending your win/loss ratio could skew sharply towards the loss side and therefore causing your account balance to decline.

One might suggest, easy come and extremely easy gone.