Dump it Here

Skate said:

My 2022-2023 return was 21.875%
Returns in the world of trading this financial year were variable and unpredictable. In the instance of my 2022-2023 return, I began well and finished with a good 21.875% return. My euphoria, however, was short-lived, as I was slammed with a string of weekly losses around the end of January 2023.

This event emphasises the volatility and danger inherent in trading since even the most successful traders might meet unforeseen challenges. The red lines within the circle remind us that trading requires ongoing monitoring and agility. While losses are unavoidable, they also provide an opportunity to learn and improve future trading techniques.

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Skate.

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Is the %Buy a new filter? Or is it a modification/evolution?

The comparison of your results to the market would seem to suggest that the correlation is quite high. Not surprising with a long stocks strategy.

From Sept. 2022 where you had had some drawdown, you could be confident that the system was not broken due to the correlation? This really goes to my question: how do you know the system is broken as opposed to just a drawdown.

Of course the follow up question is: given that the system is not broken, what would you expect if the market had continued lower?

That is to say: could the system buck the trend of the market?

jog on
duc

Part 1


Part 2


Part 3


Part 4


jog on
duc

"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

55. Overconfidence is an inhibitor
Overconfidence can be a big impediment to success in trading. Overconfidence is frequently related to the urge to make hazardous trades with the idea that you can outwit the market. While these traits may appear adventurous and attractive, they can have fatal consequences, especially if traders face unanticipated downturns or make poor decisions.

A more careful, long-term methodical approach to trading, rather than a macho one, can provide a safer option. Traders can avoid the hazards of significant drawdowns and inconsistent decision-making by adhering to a well-defined risk management approach. This method requires a precise balance of logical analysis and emotions, as both are required for good trading.

It can be distressing for traders when things "do not go as planned". Ignoring the outcomes and doubling down on a losing trade, on the other hand, can be even more destructive. It is critical to recognise the reality of the situation and take efforts to limit losses, even if this involves cutting ties with a position that was once thought to have great potential. By selling, traders can free up capital for new opportunities with a higher chance of long-term success.

While having strong opinions and convictions can be advantageous in trading, overconfidence can lead to reckless actions and a failure to see when a plan is failing. Long-term success requires a trader's capacity to adapt to changing market conditions and recognise when a plan is not working. Being open to fresh information and willing to change one's approach can help traders avoid major losses and capitalise on new opportunities.

An effective trading plan must include risk control. A well-defined risk management strategy can assist traders in remaining disciplined and avoiding making rash decisions. At the same time, emotions can play a part in trading, and it is critical to recognise and successfully control them. Traders might increase their chances of success in the market by striking a balance between logical analysis and emotions.

To summarise, overconfidence can hamper trading performance, and a more cautious, long-term methodical strategy can be a safer bet. Recognising losses, recognising when a strategy isn't working, and reacting to changing market conditions are all critical success factors. Traders can boost their chances of success in the market by striking a balance between logical analysis and emotions and adhering to a well-defined risk management plan.

Skate.

Skate said:

"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

55. Overconfidence is an inhibitor
Overconfidence can be a big impediment to success in trading. Overconfidence is frequently related to the urge to make hazardous trades with the idea that you can outwit the market. While these traits may appear adventurous and attractive, they can have fatal consequences, especially if traders face unanticipated downturns or make poor decisions.

A more careful, long-term methodical approach to trading, rather than a macho one, can provide a safer option. Traders can avoid the hazards of significant drawdowns and inconsistent decision-making by adhering to a well-defined risk management approach. This method requires a precise balance of logical analysis and emotions, as both are required for good trading.

It can be distressing for traders when things "do not go as planned". Ignoring the outcomes and doubling down on a losing trade, on the other hand, can be even more destructive. It is critical to recognise the reality of the situation and take efforts to limit losses, even if this involves cutting ties with a position that was once thought to have great potential. By selling, traders can free up capital for new opportunities with a higher chance of long-term success.

While having strong opinions and convictions can be advantageous in trading, overconfidence can lead to reckless actions and a failure to see when a plan is failing. Long-term success requires a trader's capacity to adapt to changing market conditions and recognise when a plan is not working. Being open to fresh information and willing to change one's approach can help traders avoid major losses and capitalise on new opportunities.

An effective trading plan must include risk control. A well-defined risk management strategy can assist traders in remaining disciplined and avoiding making rash decisions. At the same time, emotions can play a part in trading, and it is critical to recognise and successfully control them. Traders might increase their chances of success in the market by striking a balance between logical analysis and emotions.

To summarise, overconfidence can hamper trading performance, and a more cautious, long-term methodical strategy can be a safer bet. Recognising losses, recognising when a strategy isn't working, and reacting to changing market conditions are all critical success factors. Traders can boost their chances of success in the market by striking a balance between logical analysis and emotions and adhering to a well-defined risk management plan.

Skate.

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This is a very well written post @Skate, their are many single sentences that can be picked out of this which traders can benefit from pondering the depth of information that is summarised by it. I recommend new traders take a copy of this post so they can re-read it frequently, that's what I'm going to do.

ducati916 said:

# 1. Is the %Buy a new filter? Or is it a modification/evolution?

# 2. The comparison of your results to the market would seem to suggest that the (# 2.1) correlation is quite high. Not surprising with a long stocks strategy.

# 3. From Sept. 2022 where you had had some drawdown, you could be confident that the system was not broken due to the correlation? This really goes to my question: how do you know the system is broken as opposed to just a drawdown.

# 4. Of course the follow up question is: given that the system is not broken, what would you expect if the market had continued lower?

# 5. That is to say: could the system buck the trend of the market?

Click to expand...

@ducati916, thank you for your questions as it allows me to make some clarifying remarks.

# 1. The "Percentage Up" indicator is a relatively new filter that is used in the SAP Strategy. I also use the "Percentage Up" filter in a few other strategies that I trade. This timing filter is not a modification or evolution of an existing filter. This indicator is a Boolean value that indicates whether a certain percentage of positions in a watchlist is in an uptrend, and it is used to confirm other technical signals employed in the SAP Strategy. The filter is nothing more than a timing filter or "simply put" it's forms part of my "buy condition" to determine the direction of the market trend to generate buy signals

# 2. Regarding the comparison of the results to the market, it's not surprising to observe a high correlation between the SAP Strategy's results and the market, especially given that it is a long-only stock strategy. Such strategies are often highly exposed to overall market trends and movements. However, it's important to note that correlation doesn't necessarily indicate causation and other factors may also affect the strategy's performance. Therefore, it's crucial to maintain ongoing monitoring and agility to adapt to any unforeseen challenges that may arise.

# 2.1 Regarding the correlation between the strategy's results and the market, a high correlation is expected for a long stocks strategy. The performance of the strategy is influenced by the overall movement and trends in the market.

# 3. During a drawdown period, it is important to assess whether the system is broken or if it is a temporary phase. A drawdown is a normal part of trading, and it does not necessarily indicate that the system is broken. Analysing the correlation between the strategy's performance and the market can provide insights into the system's resilience during drawdowns.

# 4. If the market had continued to decline after September 2022, the performance of the SAP Strategy would depend on its specific design and the filters employed.

#5. It is possible for a trading system to buck the trend of the market and generate positive returns even in a declining market. However, the ability of the system to do so would depend on various factors such as the effectiveness of the filters, risk management techniques, and market conditions.

Skate.

DaveTrade said:

This is a very well written post @Skate, their are many single sentences that can be picked out of this which traders can benefit from pondering the depth of information that is summarised by it. I recommend new traders take a copy of this post so they can re-read it frequently, that's what I'm going to do.

Click to expand...

@DaveTrade, thank you for your kind words.

Sharing knowledge with others is an outlet for me and it doesn't matter if you are a beginner or an experienced trader, there is always something new to learn or share with others, which is why I think my series of daily posts is one method to keep our trading knowledge current.

I've received useful trading insights and viewpoints from a variety of members of "The Aussie Stock Forums" and from one member in particular. These resources have aided in the development of my own trading abilities and knowledge, and I am grateful for the opportunity to learn from others.

To share my own experiences, the purpose of my daily posts is to focus on trading basics. Regardless of the level of experience, my initial goal was to have my say on a variety of topics over a "three-month period" to provide informational material that might help someone.

Over time, I've posted motivating information, cartoons, jokes, and "quotes of the day" to keep new traders inspired on their journey.
I just hope that everyone who reads my musings finds something useful, if not, it contributes to the continuation of the"Dump it here" thread.

Skate.

The saying "You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar" means that being kind and pleasant in your interactions with others is more likely to lead to success than being mean or hurtful. By using positive methods, such as being considerate and respectful, you can build better relationships and achieve your goals more effectively.

Skate.

A joke about bullsh!t

Chatting with a bull, a turkey sighed and said, "I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree, but I haven't got the energy."

"Well, why don't you nibble on some of my droppings?" replied the bull. "They're packed with nutrients."

The turkey pecked at a lump of dung and found that it actually gave him enough strength to reach the first branch of the tree. The next day, after eating some more dung, the turkey reached the second branch. Finally, after a week, there he was, proudly perched at the top of the tree.

Soon, though, the turkey was promptly spotted by a farmer, who shot the turkey from the tree.

Moral of the story:
Bullsh!t might get you to the top, but it won't keep you there!

Skate.

A very good morning Skate
Raining in the far north, some green pastures coming ... like Monday

Never a truer word (s) said....

Skate said:

View attachment 158955

The saying "You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar" means that being kind and pleasant in your interactions with others is more likely to lead to success than being mean or hurtful. By using positive methods, such as being considerate and respectful, you can build better relationships and achieve your goals more effectively.

Skate.

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and or alternatively in layman's terms, 'treat others as you would like to be treated...'

Gotta execute the rcw1 edge in punting now... ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ducks lining up nicely with selects.
Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1

rcw1 said:

or alternatively in layman's terms, 'treat others as you would like to be treated...'

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The 11th Commandment
@rcw1, In John 13:34, Jesus mentions, “A new command I give you: Love one another. As I have loved you, so you must love one another.”

Skate.

Skate said:

The 11th Commandment
@rcw1, In John 13:34, Jesus mentions, “A new command I give you: Love one another. As I have loved you, so you must love one another.”

Skate.

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and further ...

Do unto others as you would have done unto you​

Kind regards
rcw1

Skate said:

The 11th Commandment
@rcw1, In John 13:34, Jesus mentions, “A new command I give you: Love one another. As I have loved you, so you must love one another.”

Skate.

Click to expand...

rcw1 said:

Do unto others as you would have done unto you

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Sorry, @rcw1 I was making a personal joke by quoting a verse from the bible.

I know from personal experience gambling can be a religion to some people and it may sound strange to others, but there are certain aspects of gambling that can resemble religious practices.

For example, gambling can provide a sense of community and belonging, similar to the social aspects of religious gatherings. People who have a flutter may feel a sense of camaraderie with their fellow gamblers and may form friendships or even relationships within these circles.

Skate.

Skate said:

Sorry, @rcw1 I was making a personal joke by quoting a verse from the bible.

I know from personal experience gambling can be a religion to some people and it may sound strange to others, but there are certain aspects of gambling that can resemble religious practices.

For example, gambling can provide a sense of community and belonging, similar to the social aspects of religious gatherings. People who have a flutter may feel a sense of camaraderie with their fellow gamblers and may form friendships or even relationships within these circles.

Skate.

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all good rcw1 didn't pick up on it ... rcw1 not the sharpest tool in the shed ... 'football (Rugby League) has been good to me' ha ha ha ha ha
gotta concentrate on the Sunshine Coast field at the minute. Tutt ta

Kind regards
rcw1

Start Date: 1st of July 2023
Initial Portfolio Capital: $200,000
Positions in the Portfolio: 10
Initial Position size: $20,000 (subject to re-balancing)

The Sap Strategy is all systems go
In my beginner-focused daily posts, I introduce the SAP Trading Strategy, a project which was planned to start trading from the 1st of July 2023 subject to the "Percentage Up" filter being above 50% which it currently is. Buy signals have been generated, and those buy signals have already been placed in the pre-auction for Monday.

The SAP Strategy uses various filters, parameters, and exit strategies to optimise system trading. By employing trend, volatility, volume, and momentum filters, it identifies potential trading opportunities. The strategy also has optimised settings for maximum profitability and minimal risk, using multi-level trailing stops, stale exits, and position sizing.

The SAP Strategy includes numerous exit strategies to minimise losses and maximise profits. Examples include trailing stops, take-profit stops, and time-based exits. It's an excellent resource for beginners to learn about tools and strategies used in system trading.

Some key filters and parameters in the SAP Strategy are:
1. Hann Filter
2. VWMA Filter
3. Elder Impulse Filter
4. Momentum Filter
5. Price Filter
6. Turnover Filter
7. Volume Filter
8. Rate of Change Momentum Filter
9. Position Sizing
10. Maximum Number of Positions in the Portfolio
11. Ranking System
12. Commission and Slippage
13. Percentage Up Filter (conditional buy filter)

Exit strategies include:
1. Time Exit
2. GTFO Filter Exit
3. Volatility Exit
4. Ulcer Index Indicator Exit
5. Lack of momentum Filter Exit

A trading strategy using multiple filters with a strong entry condition I believe can help traders successfully navigate the markets. Employing technical indicators, parameters, and exit strategies can help you find profitable trades while minimizing risk. Always limiting risk and preserving wealth for long-term trading success, is at the very heart of the SAP Strategy.

Skate.

To avoid any confusion or suspicion of operating as a signal service, I would like to emphasise that I will maintain complete transparency in all my trading activities. As soon as a buy or sell signal is executed, the details will be made available for everyone to see within a few minutes.

My trading strategy involves only pre-auction trades to ensure that I can secure the best possible opening price on Mondays. The confirmed price and quantity of shares purchased will be openly displayed in the sales tab, allowing anyone to verify the information.

Transparency is of paramount importance to me, and I am committed to keeping everyone informed throughout the trade process. In addition to the signals, I will share price charts and equity curves to help others understand the reasoning behind each trade. This level of detail may seem overwhelming at first, but it will make the project more engaging and informative for everyone involved.

Exploration Analysis
The SAP Strategy has generated three buy signals



Orders placed
This is a copy of the signals already submitted into the pre-auction for Monday



Percentage up filter
This is a conditional buy filter. When the filter is above 50% the lower ribbon on the chart turns green and the filter displays the current percentage allowing buy signals to be generated.



Minutes per week
Trading systematically only takes minutes a week, if there is an easier, quicker method of trading, please let me know.

Skate.

"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

56. The market is not a level playing field
Trading is a complex and dynamic endeavour influenced by many elements that most traders are unaware of. The market is not a level playing field, which disadvantages individual traders. Some of the big players may have access to non-public information, specialised knowledge, and a level of expertise that enables them to make better trading decisions with lower commission costs.

Individual traders can still thrive in the market "despite the hurdles" by approaching trading with humility and acknowledging their limitations. While they may not have access to as much information as insiders or institutional traders, smaller traders can react to market developments and move quickly, which can be advantageous in some situations.

However, successful trading takes more than simply reacting to market fluctuations. Maintaining a long-term view and taking into account previous data and patterns can assist traders in making informed decisions and reducing risk. Rather than pursuing short-term returns, traders should focus on building a well-defined trading strategy that takes into consideration their risk tolerance and trading goals. This trading plan should be reviewed on a regular basis and changed as necessary to reflect changing market conditions.

The Australian market has distinct characteristics and obstacles that traders should be aware of. Commodity prices, for example, have a significant impact on the market, particularly for commodities such as iron ore and coal, which are key exports.

Furthermore, the time difference between Australia and other major financial centres might make it difficult for traders to keep up with global market developments and respond swiftly to market events.

Despite these difficulties, Australia is home to several industry leaders in areas such as mining, banking, and healthcare. Traders who are familiar with these industries and the companies that operate inside them may be able to spot trading opportunities.

Australian traders have access to a wide range of resources, including Internet trading platforms, financial news websites, and trading communities. Traders can boost their prospects of long-term success by tapping into these resources and constantly learning and updating their expertise.

To summarise, while the market is not an equal playing field, individual traders can prosper by approaching trading with humility, keeping a long-term perspective, and exercising discipline. Traders can increase their chances of market success by focusing on building a well-defined trading plan and trading strategy that can be followed even when circumstances get tough.

Skate.

ducati916 said:

Part 1


Part 2


Part 3


Part 4


jog on
duc

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I was surprised that there weren't comments from watching the four YouTube video's that @ducati916 posted as these four videos all focus on the trading psychology concept going on to explain the importance of having the appropriate mindset which is critical for trading success.

In video one "Why Normal Doesn't Make Money" the speaker, Tom Hougaard, emphasises that a "normal" trading approach that depends on intuition and emotions can be detrimental to trading success. Tom emphasises, why establishing a trading plan, controlling risk, and approaching the market with discipline, patience, and objectivity are so important.

The second video, "Pattern Recognition" addresses the significance of pattern identification in trading and how it might affect a trader's mentality. The speaker emphasises the importance of traders having a flexible attitude and being willing to adjust to changing market conditions and the significance of risk management and having a well-rounded trading strategy.

The third video, "About Tom Hougaard" introduces Tom Hougaard, an experienced trader, and author who emphasises the necessity of having a solid trading plan, managing risk, and controlling emotions. Some of Hougaard's trading tactics are highlighted in the video, including his use of price action and market structure analysis.

Finally, in video four "Learn to Think Like the 1%" emphasises the significance of having a proper trading mindset and psychology. According to Tom, the best 1% of traders have a different mindset than the others and approach trading differently. Then the video reinforces the necessity of having a solid trading plan, efficiently managing risk, and having a suitable trading attitude and psychology once again.

Overall, these four films emphasise the necessity of having a suitable trading mindset and psychology. Traders must have emotional control, avoid making rash decisions based on fear or greed, and approach the market with discipline, patience, and impartiality. Traders can boost their chances of success in the market by developing a solid trading strategy, managing risk appropriately, and constantly improving their skills and expertise.

In summary, how apt is it to watch a series of videos that reinforce not only what I have been saying over the last 56 daily posts but those of other members who have had their input. After saying this I strongly urge you to watch this series of videos, which not only corroborate my own ideas on trading psychology but also provide significant insights from another source.

Skate.

Skate said:

I was surprised that there weren't comments from watching the four YouTube video's that @ducati916 posted as these four videos all focus on the trading psychology concept going on to explain the importance of having the appropriate mindset which is critical for trading success.

...

In summary, how apt is it to watch a series of videos that reinforce not only what I have been saying over the last 56 daily posts but those of other members who have had their input. After saying this I strongly urge you to watch this series of videos, which not only corroborate my own ideas on trading psychology but also provide significant insights from another source.

Skate.

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Good morning, Skate,
Haven't had a chance yet to listen to them just yet, anyways, on the rcw1 to do list. Education is important, guaranteed, hand and hand with professional development and overall enhancement of one's skill set. 100%.

Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
rcw1

Skate said:

View attachment 158966

Some key filters and parameters in the SAP Strategy are:
1. Hann Filter
2. VWMA Filter
3. Elder Impulse Filter
4. Momentum Filter
5. Price Filter
6. Turnover Filter
7. Volume Filter
8. Rate of Change Momentum Filter
9. Position Sizing
10. Maximum Number of Positions in the Portfolio
11. Ranking System
12. Commission and Slippage
13. Percentage Up Filter (conditional buy filter)

Exit strategies include:
1. Time Exit
2. GTFO Filter Exit
3. Volatility Exit
4. Ulcer Index Indicator Exit
5. Lack of momentum Filter Exit

Click to expand...

Is that all!??? Why not include your local tidal pattern as well?

I would sure as hell not trust such an over optimised system... (System design 101: The more you optimise the less robust)

(18 criteria for one system? You can't be serious)

Trendnomics said:

Is that all!??? Why not include your local tidal pattern as well?

I would sure as hell not trust such an over optimised system... (System design 101: The more you optimise the less robust)

(18 criteria for one system? You can't be serious)

Click to expand...

@Trendnomics, thank you for taking the time to comment on the SAP System design. While it's fair to be concerned about an over-optimized system, it's crucial to remember that developing a reliable and resilient system frequently necessitates careful consideration of numerous filters, indicators, and parameters.

The suggestion to add the local tidal pattern is a fantastic one! Depending on the application, including tidal patterns may be a crucial factor to ensure accurate and reliable system operation.

The number of indicators may appear to be excessive, yet complex systems frequently require a thorough set of filters to ensure they fulfill the performance requirements. Each filter, indicator, and parameter are carefully chosen to address a specific aspect of the system's performance, and they all work together to ensure that the system is dependable and robust.

I hope my response clarifies some of the factors that go into the Sap Strategy system design, and I appreciate your interest and involvement through your participation in this conversation. Being positive, considerate, and respectful to others, whilst having a helpful attitude would hold more value to others.

Skate.