Dump it Here

[Captain_Chaza]

View attachment 158372

The SAP Strategy for me is a new approach to trading that incorporates multiple exit strategies to optimize profits and minimise losses. The strategy uses a combination of technical indicators, such as moving averages, stochastic oscillators, and the MACD, to generate signals.

The "Stale Stop" exit being part of a larger multi-stage exit strategy is also a crucial component, ensuring positions are cut loose that fail to follow through.

The "Take Profit Stop" parameter is another important feature of the SAP strategy, which locks in profits once a target is reached. The Max Profit parameter sets the take-profit target as a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR), which adjusts the target to market volatility.

It's important to note that the effectiveness of the SAP strategy will depend on the specific parameters and filters I've elected to use. But on a cautionary note, traders trying anything new should first thoroughly backtest the strategy and evaluate its performance over various market conditions to optimize profitability and minimise risks before committing real money.

Skate.

Would your Stop Loss have worked this Morning's BLACK SWAN Event on the LKE
How much of a LOSS would the Backtest Report?

Sailing the LKE ----- One Say at a Time------------&----------5 MINUTES at a Time

 

[Skate]

Would your Stop Loss have worked this Morning's BLACK SWAN Event on the LKE
How much of a LOSS would the Backtest Report?

@Captain_Chaza I wouldn't have been affected as the conditional buy filter is off.

Conditional Buy Filter
The "PercentageUp Filter" is a simple timing filter that IMHO has a high correlation to the index I trade the ASX (All Ordinaries). When the markets are bullish, the "PercentageUp Filter" is above (50%) Buy positions can be taken. When the filters turn bearish under (25%) it is annexed with an additional code as an additional exit strategy.




The PercentageUp Buy Filter in action
This chart is from March 2023 but displays why being selective about when to enter the market is critical.







Another DAILY Chart
The Ducati Aqua Bar Strategy only buys "Aqua Bars" and sells when the bars turn "Red". This strategy would not have been affected either as this strategy takes no notice of the "PercentageUP" conditional buy filter as it's driven by momentum.



Skate.

 

[ducati916]

The example above is clearly not a Black Swan. Second it is a stock already in a downtrend.

These examples are more relevant in that they are in (short) term uptrends. They are not unusual, they are 3 out of 52 entries from last Friday in the US.



All could possibly fulfil the criteria and filters applied.

This one definitely would have been a problem on multiple occasions.




A challenge for sure.

jog on
duc

 

[Captain_Chaza]

The example above is clearly not a Black Swan. Second it is a stock already in a downtrend.

These examples are more relevant in that they are in (short) term uptrends. They are not unusual, they are 3 out of 52 entries from last Friday in the US.

View attachment 158380View attachment 158381View attachment 158382

All could possibly fulfil the criteria and filters applied.

This one definitely would have been a problem on multiple occasions.

View attachment 158383


A challenge for sure.

jog on
duc

" The Challenge Here" for the Academic is to decide which one of all these hundreds of trades above is a Real Trade one would take with Real Money

Re; Your Definition of a Black Swan Event I feel is somewhat Pedantic
"Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter."

Salute and Bon Voyage When & if you ever make a move

 

[Skate]

Would your Stop Loss have worked this Morning's BLACK SWAN Event on LKE

@Captain_Chaza thank you for sharing your comments and adding your unique viewpoint to the topic. While the concept of a Black Swan occurrence is subjective, I agree that it should not detract from our main goal of protecting oneself from potential losses.

I loved the examples you gave regarding how a stop loss and how would it have handled a sharp rapid decline in (LKE) price. It is critical to explore several ideas on how we could go about dealing with volatile market situations. While there is always a range of viewpoints on what constitutes a Black Swan occurrence, I believe we can all agree on the significance of minimising losses and how we go about safeguarding ourselves in the event of something similar occurring in the future.

Having a robust discussion about terminology adds nothing of educational value in my opinion. But rather the discussion should be slanted towards determining the best method to mitigating risk and ensuring future trading success would be more effective in my opinion. Even if the vocabulary or method differs to some extent, we can come up with a solution that will benefit someone.

Skate.

 

[DaveTrade]

" The Challenge Here" for the Academic is to decide which one of all these hundreds of trades above is a Real Trade one would take with Real Money

Re; Your Definition of a Black Swan Event I feel is somewhat Pedantic
"Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter."

Salute and Bon Voyage When & if you ever make a move
View attachment 158391

@Captain_Chaza I took @ducati916's post as showing that 'black swan' was when it gapped against the trend as opposed to your example of gapping in the direction of the short term trend.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

@Captain_Chaza I took @ducati916's post as showing that 'black swan' was when it gapped against the trend as opposed to your example of gapping in the direction of the short term trend.

Why can't a 20% and > GAP / Black Swan event occur in a downtrend
Lots of Brokers use the Pump a little and Soak a little Accumulation Method whilst a share is falling "Gently "
This Must not be confused with The PUMP and DUMP in the High /Risk Speculator's Internet game of Passing the Parcel

If I look at a Chart on the Weekend I am in shock on the Monday morning with an opening price ~ MINUS 20%
That to me is a Surprise
IE: A Black Swan Event

 

[ducati916]

" The Challenge Here" for the Academic is to decide which one of all these hundreds of trades above is a Real Trade one would take with Real Money

Re; Your Definition of a Black Swan Event I feel is somewhat Pedantic
"Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter."

Salute and Bon Voyage When & if you ever make a move
View attachment 158391

So a definition of a 'Black Swan':



A 'Black Swan' is a systemic event. A single stock does not qualify for a systemic event.

Second, gaps in downtrending stocks are commonplace. Here are a number of examples from last Friday:



Logic or reasoning, is a function of language. Fuzzy language = fuzzy thinking.

As the subject is risk management, which covers both trade management and portfolio management, there is no real room for fuzzy thinking as that will cost you capital.

You employ the pejorative of pedantic. I say accuracy is in this area is a prerequisite, particularly as currently financial markets are in a period of flux and change fundamentally from the paradigm that has prevailed for the last 50yrs.

If you are primarily or exclusively a chart/technical based trader, which Mr Skate is and which dominates this thread, then your employment of risk management tools is even more critical than a trader who employs additionally macro fundamental tools. Which is to say if you are a 1 trick pony, you better ensure your pony has 4 legs, head, body and tail.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

44. Accumulating wealth
Accumulating wealth is a multifaceted endeavour that requires a comprehensive approach to achieve long-term financial security. It starts with developing a strong foundation of financial literacy, emotional intelligence, discipline, and competence. By keeping these factors in mind, we can make informed financial decisions that align with our goals and values while also considering the impact on others.

It's easy to focus entirely on the possible benefits to ourselves and our financial well-being when analysing new opportunities. However, it is critical to remember that, in accordance with our goals and values, we must also evaluate the potential influence on others.

Emotional intelligence and self-awareness are critical in developing a growth-oriented attitude that allows us to overcome obstacles, seize opportunities, to attain financial freedom, success, and prosperity. We may boost our chances of obtaining financial security and amassing long-term wealth by defining attainable goals, taking measured risks, and sticking to a financial plan.

Trading is one way to accumulate wealth, but it requires technical knowledge, emotional control, and risk management skills to succeed. Developing a trading plan, staying up-to-date on market trends and developments, and using technical analysis and trading strategies can help traders make informed decisions and manage their risk and trading capital more effectively.

In conclusion, accumulating wealth requires a balanced and holistic approach that considers emotional intelligence, competence, discipline, and knowledge. By adopting this mindset and staying focused on our goals, we can achieve financial security and build lasting wealth that benefits not only ourselves but also our community and future generations.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

As I said, the last quarter of 2018 was not kind to me & it was the first real shock when actually live trading. It was a big wake-up call.

‘Unexpectedly stagnant’: China’s massive economic problem revealed
As today's headline suggests, China’s economy is tanking. The world expected it to bounce back from the pandemic. I'm not insinuating that this is a Black Swan event or that it might turn into one but merely pointing out that economic news has the ability to shift the markets and there are some things that we can do as traders.

Read the story here

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/unexpectedly-stagnant-chinas-massive-economic-problem-revealed/news-story/f46f69ddb95ec2797b4d5ea96f56072f

When members passionately debate a point, it presents the perfect opportunity for me to express my perspective. As uncertainty in the world increases, black swan events may become more frequent, making it crucial for traders to prepare for these highly unlikely and unpredictable events. Black swan events can significantly impact financial markets, as demonstrated by the global financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

My own wake-up call occurred in the last quarter of the 2018 financial year, highlighting the importance of being prepared for unexpected events.

I believe traders can take numerous actions to mitigate the impact of a black swan event. To begin, it is critical to stay up to date on the newest news and information regarding the event and its impact on the markets. This can assist traders in making informed trade decisions going forward.

Second, traders should examine the impact of the occurrence on their positions by reviewing their portfolios. They should identify any positions that may be especially vulnerable and consider lowering exposure or hedging their portfolio to limit potential losses.

Third, traders must remain calm and avoid making rash decisions in response to market turbulence by sticking to their trading strategy and responding rather than reacting where appropriate. Responding gives you time to think.

Fourth, traders should think about other trading methods or trading techniques that can be more suited to the current market conditions. Black swan events can happen quickly but at times they have a tendency to build. Black swan events can cause significant market volatility and uncertainty, and traders may need to adjust their strategy or trading plan accordingly. I say, when in doubt "pull out".

Severe hiccups in the markets and Black Swan events can cause significant uncertainty, and this is where awareness pays dividends giving traders a range of options to consider to reduce potential losses. In this game, risk management is right up there.

To summarise, traders should be prepared for black swan events by staying aware, reviewing their portfolio, being calm, considering using alternative strategies or trading methods, and carefully managing their risk. By adopting these precautions, as I did in 2018 traders can lessen the impact of unfortunate events on their portfolios and continue to trade successfully in the aftermath.

Skate.

 

[eskys]

At a glance, he used his own meds topically.

From localised>systemic> septic?

End of story.......

 

[Skate]

At a glance, he used his own meds topically.

From localised>systemic> septic?

End of story.......

@eskys would you care to elaborate?

Skate.

 

[eskys]

‘Unexpectedly stagnant’: China’s massive economic problem revealed
As today's headline suggests, China’s economy is tanking. The world expected it to bounce back from the pandemic. I'm not insinuating that this is a Black Swan event or that it might turn into one but merely pointing out that economic news has the ability to shift the markets and there are some things that we can do as traders.

Read the story here

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/unexpectedly-stagnant-chinas-massive-economic-problem-revealed/news-story/f46f69ddb95ec2797b4d5ea96f56072f

When members passionately debate a point, it presents the perfect opportunity for me to express my perspective. As uncertainty in the world increases, black swan events may become more frequent, making it crucial for traders to prepare for these highly unlikely and unpredictable events. Black swan events can significantly impact financial markets, as demonstrated by the global financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

My own wake-up call occurred in the last quarter of the 2018 financial year, highlighting the importance of being prepared for unexpected events.

I believe traders can take numerous actions to mitigate the impact of a black swan event. To begin, it is critical to stay up to date on the newest news and information regarding the event and its impact on the markets. This can assist traders in making informed trade decisions going forward.

Second, traders should examine the impact of the occurrence on their positions by reviewing their portfolios. They should identify any positions that may be especially vulnerable and consider lowering exposure or hedging their portfolio to limit potential losses.

Third, traders must remain calm and avoid making rash decisions in response to market turbulence by sticking to their trading strategy and responding rather than reacting where appropriate. Responding gives you time to think.

Fourth, traders should think about other trading methods or trading techniques that can be more suited to the current market conditions. Black swan events can happen quickly but at times they have a tendency to build. Black swan events can cause significant market volatility and uncertainty, and traders may need to adjust their strategy or trading plan accordingly. I say, when in doubt "pull out".

Severe hiccups in the markets and Black Swan events can cause significant uncertainty, and this is where awareness pays dividends giving traders a range of options to consider to reduce potential losses. In this game, risk management is right up there.

To summarise, traders should be prepared for black swan events by staying aware, reviewing their portfolio, being calm, Y

Your link here, Skate....China's woes.

 

[Skate]

Hot off the YouTube press
I was part of a survey with 5,000 other traders/investors, and the results are in. The survey was to gain a better understanding of the current investing landscape and how investor demographics and preferences are changing. The rising interest in crypto was a real eye-opener for me as well as the increase in women's participation.

It's a small 4minute recap of the survey's findings



The full report can be found here

Australian Investor Study

www2.asx.com.au

Quick Screenshot recap












Skate.

 

[rcw1]

Hot off the YouTube press
I was part of a survey with 5,000 other traders/investors, and the results are in. The survey was to gain a better understanding of the current investing landscape and how investor demographics and preferences are changing. The rising interest in crypto was a real eye-opener for me as well as the increase in women's participation.

It's a small 4minute recap of the survey's findings



The full report can be found here

Australian Investor Study

www2.asx.com.au

Quick Screenshot recap

View attachment 158406


View attachment 158407


View attachment 158408


View attachment 158409

Skate.

Good morning Skate
Nice day in the far northern parts of Queensland, if the weather was like this 365 days a year we would have the population of Sydney … absolute beautiful weather. To good really to sit behind a computer trading … aghhh naaaaaa ha ha ha ha

Always wondered back a couple years or so ago with negligible interest rates on savings in place whether was there a shift across into share trading either with a fund and or alternatively by self.

Might read the report via link.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

Kind regards
Rcw

 

[Skate]

Always wondered back a couple years or so ago with negligible interest rates on savings in place whether was there a shift across into share trading either with a fund and or alternatively by self.

@rcw1, I'll do a short post with some relevant statistics. The report was an eye-opener for me as the numbers didn't match my expectations.

Skate.

 

[rcw1]

@rcw1, I'll do a short post with some relevant statistics. The report was an eye-opener for me as the numbers didn't match my expectations.

Skate.

Nice. Thanks so much for that.
96 pages … da report… rcw1 likes reading executive summaries …

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Skate]

96 pages … da report… rcw1 likes reading executive summaries …

@rcw1 a quick recap, just for you (on short notice)
The Australian Securities Exchange today published the finding of a survey that provides insights into the behaviour and attitudes of Australian investors and traders. Despite the economic constraints brought on by COVID-19, the survey indicated that the number of Australians investing and trading has increased, with younger generations exhibiting a stronger desire to have a go.

The survey goes on to emphasises the need and importance of financial literacy and education in assisting traders make sound investing decisions. Something that the "Dump it here" thread attempts to do.

A snapshot of trading behaviours
Australian shares remain the most popular investment to be traded (bought or sold) in the last 12 months (24%), followed by ETFs (11%) then cryptocurrency and residential property (both at 9%). Overall, the median number of share or listed investment trades made by on-exchange investors was 12, with a median value of $5,500.

A snapshot of a trader's risk appetite
In examining traders'/investors' attitudes to risk, the "preference for stability" has risen since 2020. Two-thirds of traders/investors (67%) say they "prefer stable or guaranteed returns" (up from 54% in 2020), while 33% would accept moderate or higher variability for higher returns, down from 46% in 2020. The survey shows a tendency for more risk-averse participants, which is only natural when confronted with scary events.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Accumulating wealth is a multifaceted endeavour that requires a comprehensive approach to achieve long-term financial security

Accumulating wealth
Accumulating wealth is a multifaceted endeavour that requires a comprehensive approach to achieve long-term financial security. Thinking about the topic of financial security one important item I didn't address is the financial freedom owning your own home brings. I should have included in my post today the importance of owning your home "as soon as possible" into the mix of accumulating wealth.

Having a paid-off home (PPR) can provide a sense of security and stability but it shouldn't be counted as part of a "wealth creation plan" but rather as a vehicle for estate planning as owning your own home doesn't create an income.

Wealth accumulation potentially allows you to live your life on your terms without the need to work to pay for your everyday living expenses. After saying this, your home is part of an overall wealth creation plan as an asset with a value that can open financial doors.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Timing and execution
These are two vital attributes when it comes to boxing and trading. The YouTube video is an homage to the late boxer Tommy Morrison, who most "would not" have every heard about. Tommy was a young man on a mission who was famed for his powerful punches and one-punch knockouts.

While the video doesn't directly relate to trading, it does emphasise the importance of "timing and execution" in boxing, both of which may be applied to the art of trading.

Timing is critical in boxing for hitting the opponent hard and to avoid being hit in return. Similarly, timing is critical in trading for entering and exiting trades at the precise time to maximise profits and minimise losses.

Both boxing and trading rely heavily on execution. The ability to deliver blows with precision and power is referred to as "execution in boxing". Execution in trading refers to the ability to execute trades fast and accurately in order to capitalise on market opportunities.

Overall, the video's emphasis on Tommy Morrison's punching power and one-punch knockouts serves as a reminder of the significance of timing and execution in both boxing and trading, as well as the need for ability and strategy in both.

Even if you are not a fan of boxing
The story of Tommy Morrison is one you won't forget.



Skate.