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- 28 December 2013
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Skate,
How did you get your lipstick version to turn off so quickly? I am not that presumptuous to expect an exact answer with settings etc. Is at an market filter or extreme tightening stops etc? is all I would like to know.
Thanks for the explanation. I'll look up your comments on the Ulcer Index Indicator, though I think I read your posts at the time and couldn't really grasp it.@investtrader my "stale stop" predictor helps in obtaining a sharper (quicker) exit that forms part of my overall exit strategy. The secret of the "Stale Stop" exit is that all indicator measures "bar-by-bar". Doing it this way, it's easy to measure momentum or lack thereof of. Also, the "Stale Stop Exit" is time driven. Marry the stale stop with an "UlcerUp" Indicator & wham-bam-thank-you-mam the exit is as sharp as I can get it.
Recently, I was listening to one of Nick's podcast
During one of Nick's podcasts, he remarked that a time-driven exit stifles the profitability of a strategy which is in disagreement with my research. I should also say the performance increase is from having "additional buy conditions" before someone asks.
Qualifying signals
Sure a 20-period breakout strategy is fine & those signals come along with great regularity but these breakouts needs to be qualified. Not all signals are of the same quality, some are stronger than others. Being choosy about which signals you take & which you elect to pass on can make or break any strategy, not only this one
You need indicators to know what's going on
I have made a stack of posts about my "Ulcer Index Indicator", & my "Bullish Indicator" that forms part of my version of the WTT buy condition. I should also say the strategy incorporates an Index Buy Filter. I've also made a few posts on a variety of filter that keeps you on the right side of trading.
Skate.
Following on from my question re market timing. I am sure I read about a 4% down day to exit the market ( was it Zweig?). Anyway, in March 2022 it would have saved your bacon. There is another signal recently. Ominously in Jan 2018 there was another signal before the long decline. I coded the percent weekly change as an indicator.
I haven't tried yet to incorporate in a trading strategy but it looks interesting.
Anyway, in March 2022 it would have saved your bacon.
Killing some time as I get over COVID and stuck at home.
Okay, thanks for the heads up. I did notice that you were out really. Here is the equity curve for that period for my best system. Caveat - I wasn't trading this then and it is a big improvement on what I have been doing for many years. I did crap over this period, but also stopped and started trading for a few years as I was tied up with other life stuff.
I really should declare that "lipstick on a pig" was not my own but borrowed. I can't find a link now, but 90% certain it was from a Better System Trader (or possibly Chat with Traders) podcast about the many dangers of over-improving basic trend trading logic. The essence was be careful about degrees and freedom and extra variables and code added to improve. The first one or two may well help, but iterative lipstick is likely to be very very bad.....I was looking for a new project
Heck, I am mighty impressed with the backtest results so. The pig & I are seeing Dollars.
This strategy could have legs
It might just need a few minor adjustments to get the "Lipstick" in the correct position.
I should check with @Newt where to put the lipstick
Then again, I don't think the position would make much of a difference.
Skate.
Not really my thing, but maybe for someone:
Study and Backtest Of All 75 Candlesticks – Which One Works And Which One Is Best? - QuantifiedStrategies.com
We have yet to see much quantified backtest of candlestick patterns. Practically all candlestick "analysis" is based on anecdotal evidence and some randomwww.quantifiedstrategies.com
jog on
duc
I wasted a lot of time reading many books over the years & each of those books takes a fair amount of time to read & much more time to understand what you have just read.
Hi Skate,Candlestick Pattern Training Course
I should also say that have completed a full 2-day podcast training course with Steve Nison that turned out to be a complete waste of my time. During the course, Steve couldn't even answer some of the questions put to him. But one thing I did learn, Candlestick Patterns are not to be trusted. Why, because they "don't always work".
From my perspective
Understanding "candlestick pattern setups" didn't enrich my trading life because they just didn't work for me. From my research, I should say "extensive research" & from personal experience, not one strategy was successful in making money on a "consistent" basis.
Don't spend the money
I could have said that in my first post, but I had to get a few things off my chest.
Skate.
I will just say that knowing mr Skate, I doubt he used a black box implementation on Amibroker..and so after programming the candle stick systems of interest , ended with the view that on his realm, in the time frequency and the period he ran his simulations, he could not find any statistically significant advantage.Hi Skate,
Sorry M8 but I have to challenge you on your Candlesticks Posts.
I’m only posting the following with Newbies in mind – they deserve a contra view.
To be fair M8 I feel you are a little harsh in your condemnation of Candlesticks.
I may be wrong, but I presume from your recent posts, that you used, or referred to “Amni Broker along with extensive research” to base your comments on – Using some experts formulas from within a Software Program is fraught with danger – you are presuming that the software formulas are written by someone that you hope understands Candlesticks, and that those formulas somehow produce the correct & desired results – huge mistake IMO.
Brokers, Merchant Bankers etc do not solely rely on a Software Based Candlestick Program signals to make decisions, they might, as I do, use them as something worth investigating.
Not really sure if the Mathematicians of this world have come up with the ultimate Candlesticks Software Program yet.
Over the years I have bought various Software programs that claim to have accurate Candlestick predictions, at one stage many years ago I compared 5 such programs – every time, on every scan they would produce 5 different results, hence I don’t use any of them in my daily research, the one that I do use, purely as a lead in for in depth Candlestick analysis, is “Trading View”.
Anyhow, nobody should use just Candlesticks to trade with.
Candlesticks should only form a Small Part of anyone’s TA, to be more precise, IMO, Candlesticks should rate at about 4% or 5% at best of anyone’s TA Tools.
For most TA Types, Candlestick Construction, Candlestick Addition, Candlestick Patterns, Candlestick Formations, along with - Indicators, Waves, Fibb’s, ABC’s, along with Several different Charts like P&F, etc, and a dozen other TA Tools (total of about 20) should all be used to help form an individual’s TA Arsenal.
Even then TA should, at best, only form a Max 40% of a TA Traders decision making process.
I’ve helped thousands of newbies (yourself included) over many years, they have all eventually understood how to include Candlesticks in their decision making.
I feel your condemnation should be directed to Amni Broker & other Black Box Formulas within Some Software Trading Programs – Not towards Candlesticks in general.
I might also point out that most aspects of this Share Trading Profession "Don't always work" the way we want them to.
This post will probably attract a lot of uneducated and negative comments, which is usual for me, and it will probably get me banned.
I will return to my cave now.
Sorry M8 but I have to challenge you on your Candlesticks Posts. Not really sure if the Mathematicians of this world have come up with the ultimate Candlesticks Software Program yet. Over the years I have bought various Software programs that claim to have accurate Candlestick predictions, at one stage many years ago I compared 5 such programs – every time, on every scan they would produce 5 different results, hence I don’t use any of them in my daily research. Anyhow, nobody should use just Candlesticks to trade with. Candlesticks should rate at about 4% or 5% at best of anyone’s TA Tools.
Skate, after programming the candle stick systems ended with the view that he could not find any statistically significant advantage.
DrBourse posted -
I’m only posting the following with Newbies in mind – they deserve a contra view.
For most TA Types, Candlestick Construction, Candlestick Addition, Candlestick Patterns, Candlestick Formations, along with - Indicators, Waves, Fibb’s, ABC’s, along with Several different Charts like P&F, etc, and a dozen other TA Tools (total of about 20) should all be used to help form an individual’s TA Arsenal.
I think this is completely bad advice for newbies, or anyone for that matter. The great traders don't do all of this stuff, IMHO. The actual price action is all you need, with a couple of basic indicators. Look at Guppy's work, he is the real deal. Or Minervini. No 'magical' Elliott waves or Fibonacci's needed.
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