Dump it Here

[Newt]

I loved a tweet by Radge sometime last year - along the lines of the bear market the bears have been predicting for 18months has arrived (from memory it was around the sidewise and sometimes down period 1st half of 2021 - after the market had moved up around by some a much greater % than the small down move.

I guess not dis-similar to "bears have predicted 10 of the last 5 bear markets".....

 

[MovingAverage]

I loved a tweet by Radge sometime last year - along the lines of the bear market the bears have been predicting for 18months has arrived (from memory it was around the sidewise and sometimes down period 1st half of 2021 - after the market had moved up around by some a much greater % than the small down move.

I guess not dis-similar to "bears have predicted 10 of the last 5 bear markets".....

Keep predicting a crash long enough and sooner or later you’ll be right ?

 

[MovingAverage]

Trend trading is trading with the herd
As "Trend trading" has notoriously a low strike rate (win/loss ratio) can it be reversed by swapping the buy & sell signals? (is it as simple as that?)

Skate.

The assumption is that trend trading is about chasing long positions, but that’s only half the story. There’s money to be made by shorting trends. Flip your long only system to shorts and suddenly the win/loss ratio looks pretty good.

 

[DaveDaGr8]

Keep predicting a crash long enough and sooner or later you’ll be right ?

A broken clock is still right twice a day.

 

[MovingAverage]

Tough going this week that's for sure, but my swing system still managing to close out a few positive positions.

 

[Trader X]

Keep predicting a crash long enough and sooner or later you’ll be right ?

The problem is the nebulous definition of the term crash. If you're highly leveraged or trading derivative products, a 20% move against your positions could take you out at a much greater percentage loss. The main differences between the GFC and now is the much greater amounts of leverage, debt, inflation and interest rates. The Federal funds rate in 2007, just before the GFC event, averaged 5% in contrast to now .25% - no room to maneuver. A sharp downturn in markets now will test the resolve of the Fed and RBA to raise rates to tackle inflation this year. Seriously doubt all the forecast rate hikes will be implemented.

 

[MovingAverage]

The problem is the nebulous definition of the term crash. If you're highly leveraged or trading derivative products, a 20% move against your positions could take you out at a much greater percentage loss. The main differences between the GFC and now is the much greater amounts of leverage, debt, inflation and interest rates. The Federal funds rate in 2007, just before the GFC event, averaged 5% in contrast to now .25% - no room to maneuver. A sharp downturn in markets now will test the resolve of the Fed and RBA to raise rates to tackle inflation this year. Seriously doubt all the forecast rate hikes will be implemented.

Wasn’t intending to get into a debate about the technical definition of “crash”. I just used it in the general sense as a reference to those who crawl out from under their rocks to claim the sky is falling in every time the market drops.
Anyway, that aside—yes I agree the current levels of debt and leverage are a big concern. I guess we’ll just have to see how the cards fall over the coming weeks and play the hands we’re dealt.

 

[divs4ever]

The problem is the nebulous definition of the term crash. If you're highly leveraged or trading derivative products, a 20% move against your positions could take you out at a much greater percentage loss. The main differences between the GFC and now is the much greater amounts of leverage, debt, inflation and interest rates. The Federal funds rate in 2007, just before the GFC event, averaged 5% in contrast to now .25% - no room to maneuver. A sharp downturn in markets now will test the resolve of the Fed and RBA to raise rates to tackle inflation this year. Seriously doubt all the forecast rate hikes will be implemented.

being a 'low debt person ' i had never considered that angle , i NORMALLY apply a negative percentage to a major index ( say minus 30% or worse to the XJO )

ALTHOUGH i saw an analysis on March 2020 arguing a 'crash' must also pierce the long term support levels

but yes the next confidence shaker could be very educational

 

[MovingAverage]

ALTHOUGH i saw an analysis on March 2020 arguing a 'crash' must also pierce the long term support levels

Interesting definition

 

[divs4ever]

i thought so and made an argument to support that view

i was quite happy to call March 2020 a ( not that bad ) crash up to reading that

and of course we had that K-shaped recovery to really muddy the waters

i still like the -30% ( from the cycle peak ) as an early guide though ( dirty but quick )

 

[MovingAverage]

being a 'low debt person ' i had never considered that angle , i NORMALLY apply a negative percentage to a major index ( say minus 30% or worse to the XJO )

ALTHOUGH i saw an analysis on March 2020 arguing a 'crash' must also pierce the long term support levels

but yes the next confidence shaker could be very educational

Now I'm definitely no chartist so feel free to ridicule my analysis, but here's my observation based on the XAO chart below.

A few things worry me: the price movement of XAO is now in uncertain territory. The white regression channel on the price chart clearly shows XAO price movement well within two standard deviations since July. However what worries me is this week we have now seen XAO move well and truly outside the lower two standard deviation level so interesting times ahead. Looking at the ATR we are definitely seeing an uptick in volatility relative to the longer term volatility since the start of 2021. Only thing that I'm curious about is that this week hasn't seen an increase in volume, which if you look back to the covid sell off that decline was accompanied by increased volume.

 

[divs4ever]

compare it to January 2019 as a guide to 'more usual times '

now the difficult factor is 'real inflation' to subtract from the market gains

( PS in March 2020 there was a LOT of forced selling , now will rebalances triggered by the BHP unification will that cause similar amounts of 'forced trading ' )

 

[MovingAverage]

now the difficult factor is 'real inflation' to subtract from the market gains

Easy solution to offsetting the inflationary impact on our market gains….we’ll just have to work smarter to improve our trading returns ?

 

[qldfrog]

Now I'm definitely no chartist so feel free to ridicule my analysis, but here's my observation based on the XAO chart below.

A few things worry me: the price movement of XAO is now in uncertain territory. The white regression channel on the price chart clearly shows XAO price movement well within two standard deviations since July. However what worries me is this week we have now seen XAO move well and truly outside the lower two standard deviation level so interesting times ahead. Looking at the ATR we are definitely seeing an uptick in volatility relative to the longer term volatility since the start of 2021. Only thing that I'm curious about is that this week hasn't seen an increase in volume, which if you look back to the covid sell off that decline was accompanied by increased volume.

View attachment 136629

Missing volume:
maybe the big movers and shakers have been actually out of the market..we saw huge periods of [top open, low close] which could indicate off load by manipulators aka big fishs?
Another potential cause: the Super funds and retails individuals invested in ETFs are more stable and expect a rebound.
Volume might come suddenly after 2 days+ of constant fall, or if the rebounds stop and new lows are reached here or on the NYSE.or after the week end...
Note: just ideas..I have no clues

 

[MovingAverage]

Missing volume:
maybe the big movers and shakers have been actually out of the market..we saw huge periods of [top open, low close] which could indicate off load by manipulators aka big fishs?
Another potential cause: the Super funds and retails individuals invested in ETFs are more stable and expect a rebound.
Volume might come suddenly after 2 days+ of constant fall, or if the rebounds stop and new lows are reached here or on the NYSE.or after the week end...
Note: just ideas..I have no clues

Yup…will be watching volume closely over next week. But as it stands without the increase in volume I struggle to get my head around this being a broad based sell off (but hey, what do I know). Haven’t looked at this week’s volume on DJI.

 

[qldfrog]

Tough going this week that's for sure, but my swing system still managing to close out a few positive positions.

View attachment 136626

was interested to check EOD
Before anything:
:not a bragging war or anything ..just interested in seeing if any share was flying thru intact;
not judgemental
ABR closing at 2.06 or -6.4% today;
STM flat -25% in last 5 days
GMG -3.72% today at $22.03, lost $1.5 since Monday
UWL -3.7% at $3.9 lost 20c since Monday....
So in short bloobath;
So lucky you got out..I actually missed that critical point!!!

but I did worse look at these:

Daily change	open	close
BTR	$0.063	$0.046​	-$0.021	-31.34%
WIA	$0.076​	$0.063​	-$0.012​	-16.00%​

These 2 packets were enough to make my portfolio go from positive to negative
and I forget -9% on NST

 

[divs4ever]

Yup…will be watching volume closely over next week. But as it stands without the increase in volume I struggle to get my head around this being a broad based sell off (but hey, what do I know). Haven’t looked at this week’s volume on DJI.

a Bell Direct member posts advancers/decliners most nights

Chart - Regular contributor
Posted Friday at 5:41 PM (3 Likes)

Nasty, 1118 more falling stocks than rising.

Chart - Regular contributor
Posted Monday at 6:13 PM (3 Likes)

1222 more falling stocks than rising. Big numbers here.

Chart - Regular contributor
Posted Tuesday at 6:57 PM (2 Likes)

1416 more falling stocks than rising, very nasty.

Chart - Regular contributor
Posted Today at 5:16 PM (1 Likes)

783 more falling stocks than rising, still big numbers here.


and the dollar value turned over is fairly solid as well ( for those 4 days )

7.2bn shares were traded, worth $14.5bn. ( for today )
so that estimation of $96 billion to rebalance after the BHP unification should have noteworthy moments

HOWEVER Commsec likes to focus on the XJO which often looks less scary ( only 200 stocks to choose from )

 

[MovingAverage]

So lucky you got out..I actually missed that critical point!!!

				​

There was no luck involved—my system made deliberate decisions to get me in and out of the trades so nothing to do with luck ? I’m just being flippant and don’t want to stir up that discussion again ?

 

[qldfrog]

There was no luck involved—my system made deliberate decisions to get me in and out of the trades so nothing to do with luck ? I’m just being flippant and don’t want to stir up that discussion again ?

Sorry, luck was wrong term.
What this "crisis'/crash shows is the advantages of daily vs weekly during crashes.
My wins so far this week on my hedging and currencies are just mopping up the losses on the daily systems.so instead of a killing this week, i hope to end flat.
Time will tell .
System report tonight might be delayed as the Frog is getting social: omicron times ?

 

[MovingAverage]

In a friendly way I often remind my daughter that buy and hold is for lazy folks that don't know what they're doing--she has a buy and hold approach.

Well this morning she asked me to check in on the performance of her holdings--much to our great surprise she is up almost 6% from 1 January. So today she is making me eat **** sandwiches for lunch