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Using a StaleStop as a predictor
Interweaving a "bar-by-bar" StaleStop can have predictive powers. How? - combining the RSI, StochD & MACD are all solid indicators of strength & if the strength ceases to increase over an nPeriod from the entry we will politely exit the position.

I'm needing a new project
To illustrate the StaleStop exit strategy, I will trade two strategies to demonstrate this method. @Aggitta was interested in a strategy & I suggested the WTT strategy. That will be my first strategy.

Strategy number #1
The WTT Strategy is a robust strategy but can be improved with a few modifications. Adding a StaleStop predictor to exit sharpens the returns.

Strategy number #2
@qldfrog generously allowed me to use his Flying Bat logo that I made for him so that will be the second strategy. I'll use "Skate's Flying Bat Strategy" to demonstrate the use of the StaleStop predictor.

Why post two strategies
For one simple reason, each strategy is completely different in most ways but they will both exercise the same "StaleStop" predictor to exit. By displaying the signals before the opening will keep me honest. The weekly results will be posted on a Friday evening.

Skate.
 
The WTT Strategy - overview
Some traders "but not all" are fluent with the working of the WTT Strategy. As a recap, the WTT Strategy is a simple 20-period breakout trend following system. The idea behind this strategy is solid but returns are unimpressive. With all sound strategies, improvements are difficult to find but with perseverance, it's not impossible to find some. There are those who trade a version of the WTT Strategy & my version "buy & sell" signals may hold some interest to them. The predictive "StaleStop" exit strategy is a new addition that incorporates a "strength predictor".

The Flying Bat Strategy - overview
It's a simple strategy that uses a few indicators to sharpen both the entry & exit signals. As the strength of a trend is so important in filtering out false signals, I've decided to use the "RSI, StochD & MACD" indicators in "combination" to return the best bang-for-buck. Those three indicators are at the very heart of everything this strategy hopes to achieve. The premise behind the idea is simple. Enter on a confirmed trend with strength & get out when strength fails to keep building.

Skate.
 
Hi Skate, thanks for that. I'll have a play and see if I can understand it. Much appreciated.
 


Skate's WTT Strategy signals
The strategy is designed to be traded in the pre-auction & the signals will be displayed before Monday's open.

Strategy construction
Portfolio size $100k
Positions 20
Bet size $5k



Skate.
 
I've changed my mind
For simplicity, I'll concentrate on one strategy only, "Skate's WTT Weekly Strategy" - by doing so it allows others to compare & contrast to the original.

Skate's Flying Bat Strategy
I'll start "Skate's Flying Bat Strategy" as a new project for July 2021

moXJO said:
discussion round here have been rather bland lately
Click to expand...

@moXJO, yes, I tend to agree. Without a few regular posters, there would be nothing of value to read.

Skate.
 
Hi Skate,

Since my last post I've looking at your WTT code and figuring out what it is doing. This is really helpful, so thanks very much. I really like that you have commented on the all the code so it is easy to follow. I had to change the input from Norton as I have Oracle (I did by trial and error, but got there eventually!) and I had to rem out a few lines near the bottom, but all good.

Tomorrow I'll play with some of the settings to see how it affects backtesting. Again, I really appreciate that you have let me have the code. I'll be interested to see how the Stale Stop goes.

Cheers, Aggitta
 
Aggitta said:
Tomorrow I'll play with some of the settings to see how it affects backtesting.
Click to expand...

For your information
@Aggitta, the WTT Strategy I posted was for "educational purposes ONLY" & bears no resemblance to the strategy I'll be trading.

Just so we are clear
I want to point out "no one is going to give you a good racehorse" & it's the same for strategies.

Do not trade
Under no circumstances should you trade the uploaded "WTT Strategy" - it was an exercise to explain how a strategy is constructed.

I'm just saying
If anyone wants to trade the WTT signal, they will be trading alongside me. I should also point out "I tend to lose interest over time" with all that I do. Meaning, if it's no longer challenging "I'll stop doing it"

Skate.
 
Ha, ha don't worry Skate, I'm only using it to figure out coding and ideas. I need a lot more understanding of Amibroker coding before I will be putting any money down
 
You know what really drives my a bit crazy these days TAX. Why do we all have to pay more tax for being successful? At times and yes one of the times is now it actually holds you back. If I was to sell the rest of my shares that I want ATM to take the profit and reinvest I would lose so much to tax. So I am left hanging onto what has ran its race.

I can wait for the new FY and sell but same problem I would then be holding another set of shares that I would not want to hold after the race has been run Catch 22!

I am happy to pay tax as not to pay would mean I have not made any profit but always managing it drives me nuts.

As I have aged and built wealth I start to wonder if I should go back to my parents parents and just put it under a mattress and still reap the benefits though a age pension.

Frustration lol

Well I suppose its a good problem to have.
 
bux2000 said:
are we looking at CVV ?
Of particular interest to me I hold.
Click to expand...

Periodicity
If you trade a daily strategy versus a weekly strategy the signals reflect how often you trade. As @bux2000 recently made a comment that he had an interest in the position (CVV) it's a good time to visually display the entry & exit positions of both periodicities.

peter2 said:
There is less noise on the weekly charts when compared to the daily
Click to expand...

Don't be fooled
The periodicity that allows you to sleep at night is the "time frame" you should be trading. If you think there is more profit trading a Daily versus a Weekly strategy from my experience the returns are about the same - only the workload & commission cost increase.

# Daily Strategy





# Weekly Strategy




Skate.
 
Quick Update (ESPO)
As @ducati916 had displayed an interest in (ESPO) it's worthy of a weekend update.

(ESPO) is currently still a hold
I post the "Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" because visually the strategy is easy to read & understand. When the bar turns red (the signal bar) the very next bar will be the sell bar. Buy the second buy bar & sell the second red bar. The first blue & red bars are the signal bars.

Trading the colour of price bars
There is nothing as simple a strategy that simply trades on the colour change of the price bar.



Skate.
 
Last edited:
Hi Skate,

I follow your posts with much interest.

I recently tried my hand at short term trading but found I was spending too much time in front of my computer, my day job was suffering. It was so compelling, but realised for me, the small gains I was making were more than offset by larger loss's so reverted back to the more end of day decision making.

My experience taught me alot ....about myself, my decision making and how I can talk myself into doing things that in retrospect is in no way logical.

I am not saying I will not return to more intense trading in the future but at the moment I need to keep things in perspective.

I am not saying either that I am not making gains on my capital (my portfolio) , and finding a way that works for me is constant. At this stage losing the losers and keeping the winners is working.

As I touch my wooden desk CVV and HYM have been my best performers. As my portfolio grows I am constantly reminded of what my eldest brother instilled "When it appears to too good to be true it usually is."

I have been self employed for over 45 years so I am a firm believer in the "Harder I work, the luckier I get" principle but have learnt to always be extremely open to other perspectives and views.

I will have a go at posting a chart (not as good as yours) to help show how I have approached CVV and still hold.


And thanks again for your time, I appreciate your thoughts

bux

 

My signal came on 20 May. Which might have been 1 day prior to your signal. I didn't take the trade. The reason I didn't take the trade was that the NASDAQ was still looking a little weak at that point. So essentially I won't take a trade in an ETF if the overall index looks sketchy. As it turned out, NASDAQ was only about 1 day behind.

Now that NASDAQ has bounced, the entry point for ESPO is not really what I want currently. I would need a bit of a pullback for the entry, which will happen at some point.


jog on
duc
 

Actually I have something very similar, although arrived at by a different means. Now the relevant stock that I exited on Friday (US time) on this basis was GOOG. Had I not already been in GOOG I would be looking at this as a potential entry point. I may well re-enter. At the moment however, it was an exit, based on essentially a weakening trend.

If you have time, run GOOG through your (above) filter and see if it would have also triggered an exit. It would not (I think) have triggered an exit in your 'Blue Bar' strategy (but I'd be interested in that one also).

jog on
duc
 

Again, seems very similar to my current swing trade strategy. I had entries on Friday (US time) of LPX, OPY and NFLX. Would either (any) of your systems have selected these stocks? Very curious.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
Again, seems very similar to my current swing trade strategy. I had entries on Friday (US time) of LPX, OPY and NFLX. Would either (any) of your systems have selected these stocks? Very curious.

jog on
duc
Click to expand...
Interesting, not sure Mr Skate has access/ is using US data
 
This screenshot is from Mr @peter2



I think we have both taken inspiration for the weekly time frame from your systems.

I have been thinking about this a little, amongst numerous other things. The issue (for me) entering a swing trade system on a weekly is that the SL point has to be wider. This is an ENTRY issue, which concerns you less, but me far more.

So the possible solution is: (a) enter on a daily time frame, hold the trade until an exit is triggered. If (b) the trade is still live after 1 week, look at the weekly chart. Is the trade valid on the weekly? If it is, switch the trade to the weekly.

So an example currently: GOOG. Triggered an EXIT on the daily, but an ENTRY on the weekly. Now as already stated, that exit on the daily could also have been, if confirmed, an entry on the daily, which marries up with the weekly.

Therefore, what I am expecting to happen is: a re-entry to GOOG next week on the daily. The trade will not trigger an exit on the daily for the week and I will switch it over to the weekly from that point.

This should work better with ETFs than individual stocks as a basket is going to be less volatile than an individual name. GOOG, being so massive could work well also.

The 'good' entry on the daily, gives breathing space and reduces losses if stopped out on the weekly.


jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
Indeed. But as he posted ESPO, maybe he does. Unless ESPO is also listed on the ASX with the same ticker?

jog on
duc
Click to expand...
Or completely different stock here.?
To be honest, if not looking at real time it is possible..but not easy to feed some historical us data into AB from yahoo finance, etc.so doable
I remember gme on the asx got a boost from the GameStop story in the US
 
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