Dump it Here

[Newt]

Mr Duc, I'm guessing you wouldn't swing trade ASX or NZ - preference for US is higher liquidity and much lower commissions?

 

[ducati916]

Mr Duc, I'm guessing you wouldn't swing trade ASX or NZ - preference for US is higher liquidity and much lower commissions?

Those are some of the reasons. Additionally there is no Options market to speak of. I use Options a lot. And last but not least, I work full time, so the US time zone actually works better for me.

Jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

The starting date of a new strategy
"Skate's WTT Strategy" is a strategy that I haven't traded before. The crystal ball logo is to denote that I use predictive indicators as my trading edge. Today's starting date will have a big bearing on the performance outcome going forward. Those who have not traded before need to know all strategies take time to develop & need significant "luck" starting out.

Uncertainty
None of us knows what's going to happen next when trading but what I do know is that "it's vital that we follow our trading rules consistently" otherwise it can destroy the strategy's edge.

Trading at the moment is a tough gig
Posting my trading results for May 2021 demonstrated that trading has its moments (good & bad). Trading results are secondary & not the point of the exercise. The reason for posting is to demonstrate what one has to endure to be profitable over the longer term.

Doing it again
This new strategy, starting from scratch, would be another example of how a new strategy performs over the month of June 2021 with daily & weekly updates. I'm wishing (fingers crossed) that this strategy will be profitable at the end of June 2021 & anything less will be a failure. With all-new strategies, it's normal to dip into the red early as profitability comes later once positions start to build.

Skate.

 

[Aggitta]

I've been having a bit of a fiddle around backtesting to stop 'stale stock syndrome', but with limited success. I've been trying various MA crossovers.
I know Jim Berg exits after 30 or 60 days if the stock hasn't reached its profit target and another group I'm in exits a stock after 10 days so this may be my next set of tests. Or perhaps MACD crossovers. Any other suggestions?

 

[Roller_1]

. I'm wishing (fingers crossed) that this strategy will be profitable at the end of June 2021 & anything less will be a failure.

What happens if this weekly strategy "fails" after 4 weeks? is it tossed? Harsh critic!

 

[Skate]

What happens if this weekly strategy "fails" after 4 weeks? is it tossed? Harsh critic!

@Roller_1, I never throw away good strategies. I've put an enormous amount of effort & time into this strategy & frankly, each time I trade a strategy live on this thread I'm not only putting my reputation on the line but my hard earnt funds. I'm confident this strategy will go on to make some serious coin for me, well that's the plan.

this strategy will be profitable at the end of June 2021 & anything less will be a failure.

The measure of success
I'm giving this project till the end of June to be in profit as the "measure of success" of this exercise. When new traders start out, they expect to go into profit sooner rather than later. Sometimes they'll quit after a few down days or after a losing week or two before. Heaven forbid they want to start "changing something" by fiddling "disguised as improvements". At times with beginners, if there is no quick profit, they could stop trading or exit the game entirely.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I've been having a bit of a fiddle around backtesting to stop 'stale stock syndrome', but with limited success. I've been trying various MA crossovers.
I know Jim Berg exits after 30 or 60 days if the stock hasn't reached its profit target and another group I'm in exits a stock after 10 days so this may be my next set of tests. Or perhaps MACD crossovers. Any other suggestions?

@Aggitta there are many posts about my StaleStop strategy. The search feature should be your best friend.

StaleStop
I add my "StaleStop array" in a loop so it measures bar-by-bar. Other traders simply exit a position that has not made a new high over a nPeriod of days to weeks. Personally, doing it that way is highly ineffective (IMHO).

Skate.

 

[Aggitta]

Thanks Skate, I'll do a search (my bad).
I haven't figured out loops yet (never programmed before) so another thing to learn. Plenty of time in lockdown, anyway.

 

[Skate]

It's not the ideal start
With all-new strategies, it's normal to dip into the red early as profitability comes later once positions start to build. The 5 positions entered today will have to carry the load until more positions are entered next Monday.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

I couldn't help myself
I had the funds set aside & decided yesterday not to run two projects at the same time. I believed it might be confusing for those who wanted to follow the buy & sell positions as it would be easier to concentrate on one set of signals. I just couldn't let those funds sit around till next month's new project. Besides, there is a possibility to earn a few dollars in the meantime.

To keep it simple
I'll post the daily progress of "Skate's Flying Bat Strategy" (without signals) at the same time as I post "Skate's WTT Strategy" progress.

"Skate's Flying Bat Strategy" has also started in the red
At least both strategies are in there fighting the good fight. I'm thinking out loud here "If Skate's Flying Bat Strategy fails to perform in June - let's blame @qldfrog as it's his idea"



Skate.

 

[Skate]

I was looking for an example & this is the perfect one
I started trading 4 new strategies in the month of May 2021. Two were retired strategies (The HappyCat Strategy & The BlueWren Strategy). The other two were newly coded strategies "itching to have a go". (The FreeBalling Strategy & The Rubik Cube Strategy). In each of these strategies the portfolio size $100k X 20 positions ($5k bets)

Here's the example
1. The HappyCat Strategy (red line) is struggling to gets its head above water.
2. The BlueWren Strategy (blue line) has taken 4 weeks to move into profit.
3. The FreeBalling Strategy (green line) fluctuated before going into profit.
4. The Rubik Cube Strategy (purple line) kicked into profits from the get-go.



Summary
As I mentioned to @Roller_1 - "I don't throw away a good strategy because of the results of a small sample size. Meaning, "Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater". Three of those strategies are currently in profit & one laggard. (3 out of 4 is not too bad)

Skate.

 

[AussieStockDawg]

@Aggitta there are many posts about my StaleStop strategy. The search feature should be your best friend.

StaleStop
I add my "StaleStop array" in a loop so it measures bar-by-bar. Other traders simply exit a position that has not made a new high over a nPeriod of days to weeks. Personally, doing it that way is highly ineffective (IMHO).

Skate.

Hi @Skate
Does your AFL code manage your open position stale stops / trailing stops, or do you manage this in Share Trade Tracker or elsewhere?

Thanks

 

[Skate]

Hi @Skate
Does your AFL code manage your open position stale stops / trailing stops, or do you manage this in Share Trade Tracker or elsewhere?

Thanks

#1. Norgate
Data supplier.

#2. Amibroker
Manages all my trading strategies. (Yes, Amibroker manages the open positions, stale stops/trailing stops & much, much more)

#3. Share Trade Tracker
Share Trade Tracker is my portfolio manager, keeping the record of all trades. Share Trade Tracker is also an analysis program to boot.

Skate.

 

[AussieStockDawg]

#1. Norgate
Data supplier.

#2. Amibroker
Manages all my trading strategies. (Yes, Amibroker manages the open positions, stale stops/trailing stops & much, much more)

#3. Share Trade Tracker
Share Trade Tracker is my portfolio manager, keeping the record of all trades. Share Trade Tracker is also an analysis program to boot.

Skate.

@Skate
Thanks for the heads up.

I use 1 and 3. Will investigate implementing 2 in my AFL.

 

[WilsonFisk]

Indeed. But as he posted ESPO, maybe he does. Unless ESPO is also listed on the ASX with the same ticker?

jog on
duc

Hey duc

They are both the same etf run by Van Eck. Exact same underlying holdings.

I beleive they have established it as a seperate fund here for tax efficiency instead of it just being a fund where it buys units in the US espo fund (like a lot of international equity etfs here)

 

[Skate]

If you have time, run GOOG through your (above) filter and see if it would have also triggered an exit. It would not (I think) have triggered an exit in your 'Blue Bar' strategy (but I'd be interested in that one also).

Again, seems very similar to my current swing trade strategy. I had entries on Friday (US time) of LPX, OPY and NFLX. Would either (any) of your systems have selected these stocks? Very curious.

Interesting, not sure Mr Skate has access/ is using US data

I've been busy & missed a few posts
I don't have access to US Data. ESPO is listed on the ASX as @WilsonFisk alluded to.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

New trading ideas
Going into its 6th week & with 15 positions filled I'm now wishing I had used "The Simple Strategy" to make a series of posts instead of going live straight away. The "Simple Strategy" has proven to be a real workhorse. Today is a down day for most of my strategies but after today's first update it's still powering ahead.

More on the strategy can be found here

Dump it Here

Skate's "Simple Strategy" This exercise was to develop a strategy, but not any strategy but a strategy that is built on the entire premise of buying into the strength of a confirmed trend. The name of the strategy is unremarkable but at least it fully explains what the strategy is all about...

www.aussiestockforums.com

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

the frog's bat was more like:
today
Great result for your system Mr Skate, mine were all in red today