Dump it Here

[Skate]

On the coins:

Succinctly put
@ducati916 post great screenshots in his threads & there are none better than this one on crypto.



Skate.

 

[WilsonFisk]

Is crypto a bubble?
I'm amazed at the amount of enthusiasm about cryptocurrencies. If enough believe crypto has value, I guess that's all it takes. I have trouble wrapping my head around that "the nothing" has a tradable value.

Cryptos - Hamish Douglass
# CIO Hamish Douglass at Magellan remarked that crypto is not an asset but is an illusion, imaginary & absolutely nothing. (Fair description)

Cryptos - Charlie Munger
# Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger called bitcoin “disgusting & contrary to the interests of civilization.” that's been "invented out of thin air”.

Bitcoin is built on the enthusiasm of others
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value but the adoption & investment in bitcoin shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Bitcoin is currently in unchartered territory taking a pause before the next big move.

European Union
The European Union has recently stepped in to capture & regulate all crypto. Most major countries have similar plans "so it appears" in one form or another. China has taken it one step further.

China Ban
China has banned crypto exchanges & initial coin offerings but has not barred individuals from holding cryptocurrencies. The institutions must not provide savings or services of cryptocurrency, nor issue financial products related to cryptocurrency.

HSBC Bank
HSBC chief Noel Quinn said that the bank has no plans of offering crypto to clients nor will it expand its businesses into bitcoin, citing the volatility & lack of transparency for its decision.

Skate.

Interesting comments in regards to cryptocurrencies there. Just some other food for thoughts and these are just my ideas/reasonings.

• Cryptocurrencies are hardly the first synthetic digital product for trading or investing that has no value attached to it. There are numerous instruments that have been created without any sort of asset backing it (CFD's, CDO's & other derivatives).

• Lack of transparency would indicate their isn't an understanding of how blockchain on a distributed ledger actually works. Every single transaction can be inspected by anyone. Not sure how much more transparent you can get. Sure wallet addresses may be anonymous, but in regulated countries (ie Australia, US, Canada, UK etc) all exchanges have a KYC requirement meaning that for you to purchase, sell, or withdraw crypto your identity is flagged to that transaction.

• A cryptocurrency is backed by the $$$ being poured into it via transactions, or as a store of wealth. FIAT currency is being backed by the $$$ being poured into it via tax payers (just another way of saying transactions or a store of wealth). One is regulated via government, one is not. This then becomes do you trust the government vs a bunch of randoms and Elon Musk.

• I believe a lot of people think of Cryptocurrency's as an investment rather than a medium to conduct transactions (just like FIAT dollars), and neglect the underlying technology and utility of the blockchain. This is where the 'value' sits.
  • The utility that Ether has brought to Smart Contracts and Shipping saves real FIAT $$$ in conducting transactions.
  • XRP and XLM can transmit value from one FIAT to another across the world in seconds without interruption or manipulation which is vastly cheaper, quicker and superior to the current SWIFT system in place. The $$$ value here is in time savings, and elimination of FX movement whilst funds are moving (see what it costs to send money offshore and how long it will take)
  • The ASX will use blockchain (utilising it's own proprietary cryptocurrency or derivative of another) to move to real time trades rather than t+2 or even t+1, will also eliminate naked short selling.

• There are many cryptocurrency's that have good utility and value, but there are thousands more that are rubbish though - good luck to all the DOGE holders.

• Gold does nothing for you other than look good, and has a 'value' attached to it as it is deemed a rare commodity. BTC does nothing other than looking good as a wallet balance. Many people including fundies (Fidelity, JP Morgan, Pendal to just name a few) use it as a store of 'value' as it too has a limited amount of resource available.

• At the end of the day there is some $$$ to be made from it scalping, arbitrage and short term trend following as there are people that don't understand the risks and follow the herd.

Wilsons View

Does it suit a long term investment - no/yes/maybe only time will tell and we will only see the answer in hindsight.

Some people have done well out of it and got out so there is opportunity, the same could be said for GME (Gamestop) and what happened there.

Cryptocurrency is just that, a "Currency" used to facilitate trade for most of its utility purposes, and should only be treated as such.

The trick is to know what you are doing, understand the product/strategy/instrument, know when to get in, and when to get out. It is no different to other forms of trading.

Dump over... flame suit on...

 

[WilsonFisk]

Thanks @Skate. I should have clarified. I am interested in crypto, much as I am in Forex, Shorting and Options but have never had the balls to give it a go. I probably never will.

My gut agrees very much with you.

But, Tulips are more expensive in the UK on Mothers Day than any other day of the year.

gg

GG

It is a crazy world. I think of it, as trading leveraged forex OTC directly with an unlicensed casino running inside of a McDonalds which is itself run by another unlicensed Casino, owned by a betting company run out of Nigeria whilst playing musical chairs.

You can do ok, trading/betting, but you want it to be a quick game and have cashed your chips in before the music stops.

Or you just setup a demo account with an exchange and experience that scenario without spending a sent - it is quite the rabbit hole

 

[Skate]

understand the product

Just to be clear
With cryptocurrencies there is no product.

The value of cryptocurrencies
The valuation of crypto is an illusion built on the enthusiasm of traders.

Dump over... flame suit on...

The “Dump it here” thread
The beauty of this thread is that it allows others to post an alternative view without being challenged or ridiculed.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

The value of cryptocurrencies
The valuation of crypto is an illusion built on the enthusiasm of traders.

As are fiat currencies.just a matter of perspectives.
The fall of royalty in France was preceded by a financial scandal based on the first bank notes and their collapse
https://www.citeco.fr/10000-years-h...coveries/first-paper-money-issuance-in-france
trust is all there is as backing behing a usd and an aud.
Trust that there will ever be a limited issuance.
So that the QE will one day stop ?
Do you have that trust?

 

[investtrader]

The beauty of this thread is that it allows others to post an alternative view without being challenged or ridiculed

Exactly ... unlike Hot Copper.

 

[Skate]

The next two days are critical
So close, but so far away. Two days to pull a rabbit out of the hat. I can't believe I'm so excited "hoping to break even" & knowing that I can even be up a fraction for the month, fingers crossed. Let's see what tomorrow brings.



Skate.

 

[investtrader]

View attachment 124911
The next two days are critical
So close, but so far away. Two days to pull a rabbit out of the hat. I can't believe I'm so excited "hoping to break even" & knowing that I can even be up a fraction for the month, fingers crossed. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

View attachment 124912

Skate.

Hey Skate,
Is this across all of your trading systems? How many systems? How many open positions? Apologies if you have already mentioned this.
Cheers
Gary
PS I am just ahead MTD. I only track my equity curve weekly. Too lazy to worry about daily.

 

[Skate]

Hey Skate,
Is this across all of your trading systems? How many systems? How many open positions? Apologies if you have already mentioned this.
Cheers
Gary
PS I am just ahead MTD. I only track my equity curve weekly. Too lazy to worry about daily.

@investtrader what you ask is personal & it depends on a lot of factors that I won't go into. What I can say is that the trading results I'm posting are a combination of all my trading accounts.

Posting daily results
The reason to post my daily updates was two-fold
(1) To simply show (in real-time) how my trading handled the month of May.
(2) So others can see what I have endured trying to making a few dollars out of this game.

Trading is not always peaches & cream
Last year's trading results were huge & this year is on target to be my best year ever.

COVID19 presented the gift of uncertainty
By embracing the uncertainty created by COVID presented me with an opportunity of a lifetime that I have taken full advantage of.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Hanging in the balance
The month of May is hanging in the balance. Who would have thought that the last day of trading would be the decider?

Having a nose in front
Being a little in front with one day to go means little at this stage. Fridays have been notoriously bad for me in the past, let's hope for a better tomorrow. This ending couldn't have been scripted any better.



Skate.

 

[rnr]

View attachment 124972

Hanging in the balance
The month of May is hanging in the balance. Who would have thought that the last day of trading would be the decider?

Having a nose in front
Being a little in front with one day to go means little at this stage. Fridays have been notoriously bad for me in the past, let's hope for a better tomorrow. This ending couldn't have been scripted any better.

View attachment 124973

Skate.

Hi Skate,

Have you declared Monday May 31st a Public Holiday in Australia by any chance?

Cheers, Rob

 

[Skate]

Hi Skate,

Have you declared Monday May 31st a Public Holiday in Australia by any chance?

Cheers, Rob

Hi Rob, for simplicity all my records are weekly orientated, meaning each month will contain 4 or 5 weeks ending on a Friday & not strictly a calendar month. Tomorrow ends the week as well as the month of May for my record keeping.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Summary
The month of May turned out to be a very profitable month.



Year to date
2020/2021 is still on track to be my biggest year yet.



Skate.

 

[barney]

Summary
The month of May turned out to be a very profitable.

Brilliant .... and confirmation of your systems/resilience Mr. Skate

I have not had time to read this and many other great Threads of late, but, well done @Skate

Your contribution to ASF (and for punters in general) is/has been nothing short of prolific

 

[Skate]

Your contribution to ASF (and for punters in general) is/has been nothing short of prolific

@barney, thank you for your kind words. They are appreciated.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 125047
Summary
The month of May turned out to be a very profitable month.

View attachment 125048

Year to date
2020/2021 is still on track to be my biggest year yet.

View attachment 125049

Skate.

Well done mr Skate,
Amazingly and sadly for me, i have an inverse curve, great return in first 6 month then down down down.
The fact i moved in october and just had time to work seriously on my system last week..might be a cause

 

[Aggitta]

Hi Skate, I am starting to code in Amibroker and I was wondering if you have published any of your Amibroker systems? I have tried looking through the posts, but there are a LOT of posts.
Cheers, Aggitta

 

[Skate]

Hi Skate, I am starting to code in Amibroker and I was wondering if you have published any of your Amibroker systems? I have tried looking through the posts, but there are a LOT of posts.
Cheers, Aggitta

@Aggitta the "Dump it here" thread is a combination of my posts & over that time I have supplied the code for a few systems. To get you started you can check out one of them. (The WWT Strategy)

WTT Strategy

Dump it Here

The order of construction 5. Add a sell condition Skate. Great posts @Skate . Quick question:- am I correct to assume there are two sell conditions in this system? A) when the stop is triggered; and B) the other being when the close crosses below the 25 period ma of the close?

www.aussiestockforums.com

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

So Paul Samuelson (the economist) offered a bet to a fellow economist:

On the toss of a coin: lose $100 or win $200. The bet was refused. His fellow economist however countered with, if you allow me to take the same bet x100, I'll take the bet.

With 'independence', obviously the expectancy calculation is very different and strongly favours the x100 tosses as each of the coin tosses is an independent event.

Individual stocks. Clearly variable as far as independence goes. Stocks lean far closer to 1 than 0 as far as correlation and thus independence. However it is not a 1. It can (pretty much) reach a 1 at times but it can drop far lower. Even stocks in the same sector don't display a 1.

So of our asset classes: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Gold, BTC, RE., working out the correlations can really provide some diversification, raising your overall expectancy, which is a broad framing of risk rather than a narrow framing of risk.

Risk management (I argue) has more to do with a broad framing than a narrow framing of risk. What you will find is a far tighter correlation even across different asset classes than you might have supposed. As an example FXA, FXC, FXE correlate to commodities closer to a 1 while DXY trades closer to 0. If you trade multiple assets, some of the less obvious correlations can catch you out in high vol. events.

Just recently BTC and all other coins = 1.

Just recently we have had in stocks, Growth v Value, which is possibly unwinding to an extent. Now even though in a crisis all stocks rush to 1, in a more sedate market concentrating into more highly correlated sectors can be a strategy or the opposite, depending on your risk management style.

There was a post a day or two ago re. risk management. I was sort of waiting for a discussion to develop around the SL. To my thinking discussing SL smacks of amateur hour. At this level if you cannot implement basic processes necessary to engage in financial markets, you are going to have a rough ride until you can.

Risk management is more about total (broad) exposure, correlations and hedging techniques to prevent issues when correlations go to 1 which they always do at some point.

I mention this because: (a) weekends are a factor and the inverse (b) markets that never close, but you need to sleep. I also saw Mr @aus_trader had a stock gap down recently. There will ALWAYS be negative events that cannot be managed by the overworked SL. I dispensed with the SL years ago as a waste of time. That is not to say that I won't cut a stock/whatever in an instant, I will, but the SL is a risk management tool that is overhyped. It is a risk management tool that is employed on a narrow frame risk management style, when your exposures should be broad and managed as such.

So I have placed this post in this thread mostly because the system's chaps think about these things a little harder (generally).


jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

I dispensed with the SL years ago as a waste of time but the SL is a risk management tool that is overhyped.

Getting in & getting out
As a system trader that is the essence of what we do, a place to get in & a place to get out. Getting "in" is always the easiest part of the equation. Getting out requires a tremendous amount of effort to find the "best of the worst" exit. With any trend trading strategy, it's inevitable that you have to surrender some of your open profits before a decision to exit is made for you.

Gap-downs are hard to deal with
When a price gaps-down without notice can be devastating, to say the least. But what normally happens is that the price is subjected to three variables that give a slight warning & these can be interwoven into a "StaleStop" exit strategy.

Skate.