Dump it Here

ducati916 said:

just looking at ESPO, this is close to a bottom. I would't be buying it tomorrow, it needs to build some technical structure, but this is potentially close to an excellent entry point. It's now on my watch list.

jog on
duc

Click to expand...

The 2nd blue bar
When the first daily bar turns blue that would be the signal bar. The 2nd blue would be the entry for me.

Skate

Skate said:

The 2nd blue bar
When the first daily bar turns blue that would be the signal bar. The 2nd blue would be the entry for me.

Skate

Click to expand...

See if my entry, if and when it happens, correlates to some blue bars!

jog on
duc

ducati916 said:

just looking at ESPO, needs to build some technical structure

jog on
duc

Click to expand...

Requirement to enter
Hi Duc, what technical structure is required for you to enter this position?

I'm waiting for a blue bar
For me it's easy - I'm waiting for the first blue bar (the signal bar) before placing an order in the pre-auction to snag the next day's opening price.

When will the next bar turn blue?
Frankly, I've got no idea. A single daily scan adds little to no extra work for me. For a system trader using Amibroker - the "Exploration Analysis" handles this with ease.

Micro managing positions
After @peter2 explained the work required to manage a hand full of positions, I'm sure it won't be too long before Peter rethinks system trading, changing the way his signal & position are generate. If I had to micro manage my trades it would drive me to drink. (Err, that should be "DRINK MORE")

Skate.

Skate said:

I wish to make a few comments
#1. There is nothing wrong investing in the two positions suggested by "The Motley Fool" (NDQ & ESPO) other than to say that their timing leaves a lot to be desired.

#2. The two charts (NDQ & ESPO) that I posted previously confirms (a) Technical Analysis can "time the markets" (contrary to popular beliefs) & (b) "time in the markets" has its place when it comes to investing.

#3. One of @ducati916's post allowed me to develop not only an indicator but also two complete trading strategies (a) "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" & (b) "The Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy". Meaning, Duc's idea works in all time frames.

#4. The media is not always correct.

Skate.

Click to expand...

I agree to ALL your points @Skate . I already have NDQ, from early last year, and have watched ESPO for a while and I like it, just never pulled the trigger. More money is spent by sponsors on advertising at ‘Gamers competitions’ than on the NFL, NBA, and BPL combined.’
My point was simply relating to the ‘churning of tips’ by these ‘to$$ers’.
When I was younger and greener I avidly read and believed in these publications, exactly as @Warr87 stated.
GG

Gunnerguy said:

I agree to ALL your points @Skate . I already have NDQ, from early last year, and have watched ESPO for a while and I like it, just never pulled the trigger. More money is spent by sponsors on advertising at ‘Gamers competitions’ than on the NFL, NBA, and BPL combined.’
My point was simply relating to the ‘churning of tips’ by these ‘to$$ers’.
When I was younger and greener I avidly read and believed in these publications, exactly as @Warr87 stated.
GG

Click to expand...

@Gunnerguy, journalists do make stuff up & sometimes they just rehash old stories
The media doesn't even care if the story is factual but they fail to realise that their readers will sometimes invest on "what they read" thinking its "gospel". Stories circulated by the media are either "doom & gloom" or the markets are going "gangbusters". There is never a dull moment in the markets.

When there isn't a story
They make one up & sensationalize it to the max.

The dangers of trading
(a) Can you ever recall any media outlets ever doing a story on the dangers associated with investing or trading? - I can’t. (b) Can you ever recall a humdrum story about the markets? - I can't. (The markets are always exciting)

Don't trust them
The media & advertisers (including the spam you get from this forum) only 'spruik' what’s in their best interest & not yours. Investing is worse than a zero-sum game & it’s well worth remembering that. For every winner in this game there is a corresponding loser & that loser could be you. (Trusting what you read can be dangerous to your wealth)

Skate.

Skate said:

What am I missing?
To gain exposure to the American market "The Motley Fool "website suggested 2 fantastic ETFs for ASX growth investors to buy posted by James Mickleboro 1 hour ago.

2 fantastic ETFs for ASX growth investors to buy

2 high-quality ASX 200 shares to buy
If you’re a fan of growth shares, then you might want to take a look at the exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed below. These ETFs give investors access to a collection of some of the highest quality growth shares in the world. Here’s why they could be fantastic additions to most portfolios:

#1. BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)
The first ETF to look at is the BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF. This fund gives investors exposure to some of the highest quality growth shares in the world.

View attachment 124357



VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports ETF (ASX: ESPO)
Another ETF filled with growth shares to consider is the VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports ETF. As its name indicates, the ETF gives investors exposure to a portfolio of the largest companies involved in video game development, hardware, and esports.

View attachment 124358

The Motley Fool
(a) Are these guys making stuff up or (b) just making content to stay relevant or (c) suggesting that you buy the dip (BTD)?

Skate.

Click to expand...

The constant run is over - it's still a bull market, but it's choppy and will remain so for quite some time yet. When there's swing trades on both sides of what's causing the chop (inflation fears) that are following the previous post-feb-snowstorm-pattern almost perfectly and are very clearly going to be transitory/short term (which I've spent quite some time explaining in the coronavirus thread):

Before:





After:




Then yeah, you buy the dip

over9k said:

Then yeah, you buy the dip

Click to expand...

@over9k, that was an excellent post.

Buy the dip
Buy low & sell high, buy the dip, I hear these phrases touted all the time but no one ever tells you how to do it. It’s the same with “it’s bread & butter stuff” sound great but it’s not easy for those who don’t know.

There are plenty of trading opportunities
At any given time, there are plenty of opportunities in the share market as there are some excellent quality companies performing well at the moment. The trick when trading is finding them but what we must do is stay away from "tips, rumours & the media".

Traders buy when they think the price of the stock will increase
Trading is all about buying at one price hoping someone will buy it "off them" at a higher price in the future (simple). Trading is easy, making money when trading is the difficult part. Trading consistently & successfully is even harder, which is why the majority of people who try to make money from trading fail.

No one knows if a price is high or low
With trading no one knows if a price is high or low, picking the top or the bottom even eludes the best professional so we have no chance picking the top or the bottom of any market. Buying stock that is fundamentally "cheap” is logically indisputable & on the surface sounds like a good idea but most traders really have "no idea" how to apply such principles in a manner that will make them money.

"The Dump it here" thread
I had this grand idea when starting this thread to educate those who wanted to listen about the dangers of trading. My trading was motoring along just fine & if others could replicate what I have done - I believed they could be profitable in time. I've consistently posted what has helped me with my trading & encouraged others to post in the same vein. Trading gurus are respected but practical application of their trading experience is hard to decipher & harder to put into action let alone copy.

Simple practical trading
This thread encourages others to take a sharp interest in their trading & financial future. I've shown practical ways to enter into a confirm trend & the importance of a timely exit. All one needs is to possess a (P.H.D) to be a successful trader.

P.H. D.
Persistence, Hard-work & Determination (PHD)

Joe90 said:

1. I lack a PhD in cryptography; and
2. I am not yet fully literate in the reading of Chalcatongo Mixtec or Egyptian hieroglyphics.

Click to expand...

Egyptian maths
I guess we all know about how computers & Egyptians handle mathematical equations but for those who don't know about this fundamental way of "simple calculations" might find some interest in this short YouTube video. This is a must watch. (6:28 minutes)



Skate.

Skate said:

@over9k, that was an excellent post.

Click to expand...

Thanks man. It'd be great to see you over in the virus thread as systems/technicals certainly aren't my strong suit

But yeah. If you know something like inflation fears exist, and you know there are stocks that move in pretty serious opposite directions to one another on it, then a peak sell-dip buy can make you a mint.

I posted this image over in the virus thread showing just how many opportunities (and how obvious the inverse correlation is) there were last time:



But I always like to have a bit for newbies and pointed out that even if you aren't sure what you're doing reference how to time some of this stuff, the S&P has been on a net bull run even after the 16th of feb drop despite the smashing that tech has seen:



And so you can still make some solid money just sitting on an S&P ETF until you're confident enough to have a dabble actually trading.

On the media and the need to explain and have a catchy headline - I have a great deal of admiration for Alan Kohler's approach on the ABC news. The commercial TV channels will explain every up or down, and tell you markets lost $1 billion or some other catchy phrase.

Alan puts up a couple of graphs to challenge your mindset, and if the markets move unexpectedly he isn't afraid to say no-one expected it, or no-one knows exactly what drove price on the day.

Newt said:

On the media and the need to explain and have a catchy headline - I have a great deal of admiration for Alan Kohler's approach on the ABC news. The commercial TV channels will explain every up or down, and tell you markets lost $1 billion or some other catchy phrase.

Alan puts up a couple of graphs to challenge your mindset, and if the markets move unexpectedly he isn't afraid to say no-one expected it, or no-one knows exactly what drove price on the day.

Click to expand...

I’m just saying
When the media knows, everyone knows & it’s too late to capitalize on the information.

Skate.

Oh yeah. The general public are the last to get in & the last to get out. By the time you've heard about it on the normie news, it's all over. That's basically my #1 thing I say whenever ANY of my friends hit me up with some "Hey I heard about X and I'm thinking about investing in it" type question - by the time you've heard about it on the evening news, it's already finished.

Skate said:

2. Requirement to enter
Hi Duc, what technical structure is required for you to enter this position?

Click to expand...

Skate said:

1. I'm waiting for a blue bar
For me it's easy - I'm waiting for the first blue bar (the signal bar) before placing an order in the pre-auction to snag the next day's opening price.



Skate.

Click to expand...

Speaking generally first, if (anyone) reads various threads @tech/a , @peter2 , @Skate, you will see varying entry criteria for taking trades. They are all slightly different, but do share a number of common characteristics, which are weighted to each individual's preferences.

In no particular order:

(i) Volume,
(ii) Volatility,
(iii) Time,
(iv) Open/Close,
(v) Previous High/Low,
(vi) Momentum,
(vii) News,
(viii) Fundamentals.

From that list and personal preferences, will be built an entry system. There are a variety of entries possible. Some like to pick stocks already trading in an established trend at what ever point and others like to try to trade the change of trend.

The ETF under discussion, ESPO, has been in a short term down trend, mid Feb. 2021. after a longer term uptrend, March 2020. We have therefore 2 trends in operation, which provides quantitative information. Which is: this has been in the examined total time frame (18 months) an ETF that has gone higher than it has gone lower. That information would seem prima facie, so obvious as to be worthless. But it is quantitatively different to an ETF that has gone lower over the 18 months, but is in the last 4 months moving higher. Again, obvious.

But when looking to time an entry into a trade, you have to know the parametres of your expectation of that trade. An entry into a pullback is quite different to an entry into a bounce, although both are a 'bottoming process'.

To cut this post short to a readable length, all of the listed considerations, variables or factors above, need to be thought through and built to purpose.

I'll take 1 more, fundamentals: so one might say, this is an ETF composed of many stocks. Indeed. How many stocks and what are they?



So an industrious chap will just flick through those charts and just take a quick squizzie. It has to be quick as over analysis leads to paralysis. The decision will be made on the ETF chart.

Next, you think about the industry. Growth, Value? Long term viability or a dying industry, possibly something like pet.com. Given that it is an ETF, that risk is mitigated to some extent. Popular or not? Bias: so I think computer game players are dimwits. This is potentially a bias that could keep me out of the trade. Certain industries, biotech, I simply cannot buy individual stocks. The ETF is the only way that I can participate. Cryptos. A no-go area for me. For the purpose of brevity, when you are satisfied, you move onto your technical structure.

You build your technical structure on all of the variables listed. Here you need to be a little creative. Sticking with the classics means that you will see what the general herd (those trading on a technical basis) will see. How you design this structure will (or can) emphasise whether you try to be early or late. The difference is your SL. Early it is far tighter, late and it has to be looser. Personal preference. But very different expectations.

I am always experimenting with the structure, scans, etc. to find anything that stays in sync. with the markets. Therefore there is always that tension between time frames, which will never fully resolve. What I do try to do however is keep the structure consistent across all time frames, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly.

I do not however in entering or exiting a trade, manage the trade on the same time frame. I like, where possible, to enter a trade where both the daily and weekly suggest an entry. I'll always enter on a daily, but I may well exit on a weekly. Because the only variable that is different in the structure is time, this can provide a very different trade. A current example is XLB and XLE in the trades thread. My daily entry trade has to prove itself and grow into the weekly system. If it fails early, it's managed on the daily.

My system is the polar opposite to Mr Skate. I am all about the entry, less concerned about the exit. I 'think' a great entry almost guarantees a good exit.


jog on
duc

Newt said:

On the media and the need to explain and have a catchy headline - I have a great deal of admiration for Alan Kohler's approach on the ABC news. The commercial TV channels will explain every up or down, and tell you markets lost $1 billion or some other catchy phrase.

Alan puts up a couple of graphs to challenge your mindset, and if the markets move unexpectedly he isn't afraid to say no-one expected it, or no-one knows exactly what drove price on the day.

Click to expand...

Mr Newt, have you heard the expression that the market makes the news? The news is always post hoc. The news seeks to assign a causative explanation, which ties into the philosophy of 'determinism'.

Without carrying this discussion into the realm of philosophy (however attractive that might be) and 'determinism', market participants (exercising free will) buy or sell financial instruments to satisfy their ordinal desires. Determinism or luck, (randomness) will eventually separate the winners and losers, which will be reflected in the price charts, on which the media will report, creating post hoc explanations.

The question is: can an analysis of the news, economic data, history (other than price history) or any other variable outside of price, predict winners and losers? I never say never, but the results have been pretty woeful to date taken in aggregate.

jog on
duc

Skate.

Skate said:

View attachment 124401

View attachment 124402

Skate.

Click to expand...

I share the pain, that is my usual scenario this year:
asx down .4% the frog +0.3%;
asx up 0.35, the frog down 1.4%
overall: asx 1; the frog 0 (when not -1)
tomorrow is another day

Skate said:

View attachment 124401

View attachment 124402

Skate.

Click to expand...

I know I shouldn't let it affect me - probably just letting the feel wash over me then pass - after glancing at quite a bit of red in my holdings today, really wasn't looking forward to seeing you, QF or anyone else had a strong day today Skate.

Embarrased, but somewhat relieved (and probably shallow human being ) to see that wasn't the case.

ducati916 said:

Mr Newt, have you heard the expression that the market makes the news? The news is always post hoc. The news seeks to assign a causative explanation, which ties into the philosophy of 'determinism'.

Without carrying this discussion into the realm of philosophy (however attractive that might be) and 'determinism', market participants (exercising free will) buy or sell financial instruments to satisfy their ordinal desires. Determinism or luck, (randomness) will eventually separate the winners and losers, which will be reflected in the price charts, on which the media will report, creating post hoc explanations.

The question is: can an analysis of the news, economic data, history (other than price history) or any other variable outside of price, predict winners and losers? I never say never, but the results have been pretty woeful to date taken in aggregate.

jog on
duc

Click to expand...

Great thoughts and a lot of truth in there to my mind Duc.

My younger self just accepted the news and all its strengths and weaknesses to a large extent. Do find the quantitative aspects of trading (i.e. if one profits or has losses) provides a yardstick into not just our trading, but judging/measuring other aspects of life - in this case the news media.

But know I'm getting philisophical - about the intalligible benefits of trading.....

Newt said:

I know I shouldn't let it affect me - probably just letting the feel wash over me then pass - after glancing at quite a bit of red in my holdings today, really wasn't looking forward to seeing you, QF or anyone else had a strong day today Skate.

Embarrased, but somewhat relieved (and probably shallow human being ) to see that wasn't the case.

Click to expand...

peter2 said:

(Schadenfreude) I was getting some sadistic pleasure from seeing you post like a day trader. @Flipp-Floppe-Skate

Click to expand...

It's a pity we don't have an equivalent word for Schadenfreude
Schadenfreude is a German word that means (pain & pleasure). Schadenfreude means we derive pleasure from another's misfortune. Sometimes it's self-satisfaction that comes from learning of failures or humiliation of another.

Schadenfreude is a complex emotion
The lack of "sympathy or empathy" & taking pleasure from watching someone's misfortune is an emotion displayed more in children than adults. However, adults also experience schadenfreude, although generally they conceal it.

Let's look forward to tomorrow

qldfrog said:

tomorrow is another day

Click to expand...

Skate.

Today was an up day
I nearly got back what I lost yesterday (still slightly down for the month)

qldfrog said:

tomorrow is another day

Click to expand...

Skate,

peter2 said:

I'm just thinking out aloud here for something to grab my interest enough to continue posting.

Click to expand...

Peter is always thinking of new ways to trade
Peter has got me thinking. I'm not posting as often as I should because over time, I tend to lose enthusiasm for most things I do. Just when you think you are going stale or irrelevant along comes @ducati916 talking about the "blog-a-sphere chatter" about the phrase "Sell in May & go away".

The month of May
Up until this year, the month of May has been good to me. It's still early days but as I post I'm fractionally in the red for the month.

"Sell in May"
Being disillusioned with trading I set about developing a few simple strategies that I could trade straight away to try & get my mojo back. I had two good "Parked Strategies" (HappyCat & BlueWren) & decided to bring them out of retirement & trade "two new strategies" alongside of the them.

Two new strategies
(1) The "FreeBalling" & (2) the "RubikCube" strategies were primed, ready to go. Thinking to myself, wouldn't it be good to trade them altogether. The excitement of not knowing how they would perform over the month May so I threw caution to the wind & put them straight to work.

Chart
The equity chart below displays two winning strategies & two losing strategies so far. It pays to remember that all new strategies take time to accumulate the full 20 positions. ($100k X 20 - $5k bets) & more time to develop ultimately into profit.



But they are not the strategy I wish to discuss today
I want to make a few comments about a simple strategy that I have just started to trade. It's Skate's "Simple Strategy".

More to follow.

Skate.