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DrBourse TA Help for Beginners

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Another example of the above problem.
The 2 charts below are of the the same stock - The stock name is irrelevant.
This 1st chart of from Commsec today at about 10.50am.
Take Note the last 2 Red Candles.


This 2nd chart of from Trading View today, also at about 10.50am.


The last 2 Commsec's chart candlesticks suggest caution.
BUT Trading Views last 2 candlesticks are much more positive.

Beginners need to find out why different providers show different coloured candles that are based on the same data.

Cheers.
DrB
 
HVN TA is looking interesting atm.

IV is abt $5.39, SP is now $4.99.

Candle for 3/5/22 was what’s called a “Piercing”.



HVN’s CCI has formed a “Double Bottom”, and it has just crossed up over the -100 O’Sold line.

HVN’s MFI is very similar to the CCI, a DB & both rising from O’Sold Territory.

HVN could also be on the way to forming another H&S Formation.



These are just my personal observations, they should not be interpreted as any form of recommendation – Remember to DYOR.


Cheers

DrB
 
You could also add some classic "type A" bullish divergence into the mix as well.

Cheers, Rob
 
Would HVN hit $4.50? Not Shareholder but on my watchlist. It would be interesting if it happens. $5 was the norm.
 
Hello DrBourse, greynomad99 and Rabbithop
Been a good while, hoping I find you all well.

DrBourse
Recall some TA work you had performed on LYC. Hoping you can assist rcw1 again in this regard. Be good to swap notes … again. ADR’s been kind to rcw1 … acquired heaps more knowledge; most interesting beast.

Rabbithop
Been trading LYC heavily … Suppose nothing has really changed with this stock from rcw1 perspective, other than a stronger SP
ha ha ha and more coin needed to effect that purpose, kindly conduct your own due diligence

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Hope you are keeping well row1, GN n Dr too.
I would be better once the 3 bathrooms n the kitchen complete the renovation.
LYC was good for my Trading but had since stop just keeping on watch list so is HVN hoping for a low 3.50, its hanging at 3.90plus for days or weeks. More into PLS on these shaky days.
 
HVN ?? ( i hold ) NORMALLY this faces downward pressure ( even after the div. is declared .. but not yet ex-div. ) am comfortably bulked up on that BUT if a two handle came along i might reach again from that calculator .

LYC ( i do not hold ) is currently in the mother of all storms it's major competitors and controlled by China , possibly facing an accelerated trade war ( potentially awesome for LYC ) but also a potential global meltdown where nobody in the West can afford stuff with fancy magnets ( whether it is wind turbines of expensive electronics ) AND because of past processing of REEs ( by others ) has a bad reputation by those thinking ESG .

( almost bought into this years back , but smelled the 'activist problems ' and backed away )

take care ..
 

" LYC ( i do not hold ) is currently in the mother of all storms it's major competitors and controlled by China , possibly facing an accelerated trade war ( potentially awesome for LYC ) but also a potential global meltdown where nobody in the West can afford stuff with fancy magnets ( whether it is wind turbines of expensive electronics ) AND because of past processing of REEs ( by others ) has a bad reputation by those thinking ESG" .

( almost bought into this years back , but smelled the 'activist problems ' and backed away )

I am with you..thats my reason for the emoji...
 
Good morning divs4ever,
Thanks for your response. Some matters for due consideration.

For mine, LYC is miles ahead / light years … in front of its competitors outside China.

Structure/knowledge/credibility and ability to satisfy demand - all well in front. US defence contract - About 420 kg of REE for every F-35 fighter jet and REE essential for other US military purposes. Hence a requirement to cement market independent from China.

The Malaysian ‘activist issues’ are nowhere near as problematic or of concern as in the past.

Some light reading

8 July 2022:

Rare earths in Australia must be about more than mining | The Strategist

Last week, ASPI researcher Albert Zhang shone a spotlight on a sophisticated Chinese Communist Party information campaign targeting rare earths and Australian company Lynas. This research has powerful implications for those policymakers seeking to create ...
www.aspistrategist.org.au

1 May 2022:

‘Times when I put my head on the desk’: Lynas CEO goes from hard times to boomtime

Australia-listed Lynas – the only major producer of rare earths outside China – has known more hard times than most. But now rare earths are back in hot demand amid the global push to cut carbon emissions.
www.smh.com.au

18 April 2021:

The new U.S. plan to rival China and end cornering of market in rare earth metals

The US has long relied on China for rare earth metals, but domestic supply chains are being pursued as climate and technology investments increase under Biden.
www.cnbc.com

How do we use REE: https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-do-we-use-rare-earth-elements

Have a very nice weekend.
Kind regards
rcw1
 
Hi rcw1,

I have not paid any attention to LYC since Early April 22 as it was obviously heading down from that point onwards.

LYC’s movements since 6/4/22 have been a bit hard to trade IMO.

LYC’s current IV Range is $6.66 to $5.59 (the Grey Area on my charts) – as you prob know I prefer to trade stocks when they are below their apparent IV.

LYC’s Current Trend is DOWN, I would expect a ST Uptrend to abt $8.60, followed by more Downtrend till it hits the $5.00 area.

So IMO @ $8.60 LYC is currently Overbought and is still a bit Expensive, I would put LYC back onto my watchlists when it hits abt $5.00.

Way too many External influences on Rare Earths ATM for my liking.







The next Chart shows that the CCI & MFI Indicators are still not very happy, at $8.60 they may look a little better, but not enough for me to be interested in LYC.




LYC’s Financials are due to be released late 18/7/22, if those Financials “Stack Up” then the current Downtrend may start to reverse – However, IMO LYC’s IV Range will more than likely drop even further than current Range – probably to $4.00 to $5.00- IMO most punters will be thinking the same way.



The last few Announcements from LYC on 19/1/22, 1/3/22, 12/4/22 & 14/6/22 were not well received by the LYC Faithful.

Cheers M8.
 
Thanks DrBourse, rcw1 will explore further tonight. Appreciate your comments. kind regards rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Thanks DrBourse, rcw1 will explore further tonight. Appreciate your comments. kind regards rcw1
Click to expand...
I think I stopped LYC around end of April/ begining of May. Infact had outstanding buy at $5, didn't eventuate n expired. Still keeping an eye on it. I don't intend to hold it for long term.
 
rcw.
Looks as though the LYC faithful are not too happy with this mornings "same old bland announcement".
LYC punters need some New Positive News, not just the same old rubbish they have been dishing up lately.
Time will tell where LYC goes from here onwards, prob down IMO.
B careful M8.
DrB
 
Hi Rabbit & Farm,

I posted this a few minutes ago, not sure where it went, Cyberspace I guess, so reposting it here.

Suggest Caution over the next few weeks - IMO, XJO is heading for a Double Bottom at about the 6400 region - Most stocks should follow that ST Pullback.
Best to Keep your Powder DRY in the ST.
View attachment 146063
Might also mention that IMO Most Stocks are Within or Below their IV Ranges ATM.
Cheers
DrB
 
Keeping my eye in between 7 to 8.
 
For todays “useless bit of Info”, I respectfully submit the following TA example.

Stock = PLL.

In particular I refer to 2 very important Candle Patterns – Namely “The Piercing, and The Kicking”, both of which are thankfully part of the Trading View Platform.

To elaborate





Those two are a minor part of my overall TA process, the signals are obvious, as shown in the Chart for PLL (below), both work well as Entry Points as described above, AND when Reversed they also work as Exit Signals.



Both P & K work well within ST Uptrends for Entry’s, & in ST Downtrends for Exits.

To qualify the above sentence, I will add that the degree of Uptrend/Downtrend must be applied to each “P & K” Signal, that is, a shallow or flat trend would need to be watched daily and would not carry much weight IMO, on the other hand a rapid rise in the ST Trend would probably run for a longer term (as shown in the chart above).

Then to qualify further I always take the CCI & MFI signals into the equation, note the “late Feb/early March” CCI Double Bottom, and the +ive signals on both the CCI & MFI in the days after the “P & K” were presented to us. (refer to pages 95, and 108-109, and 139-142).

That’s enough inside info from me for today – might offer some more insights in my world of TA at a later date. (had a bit of spare time today)

Hope the beginners can follow my train of thought – happy to answer Q’s when I lob here next time.

As usual, time 4 me to crawl back into the Cave.

Cheers
DrB
 
The following example shows when to be cautious with a Bullish Piercing Signal, note the CCI & MFI Signals in the few days after the "P".
 
Here is an example of a recent Bullish Piercing Signal that I IGNORED.


Can you see why I ignored the signal ?


Cheers
 
rcw1 said:
Good afternoon Rabbithop
Kinda expected worse today re LYC. Not yet anyways. Minute chart keeping rcw1 hopping (pardon the pun ha ha ha ha)

Holding

Kind regards
rcw1
Click to expand...
Hi rabbit & rcw1,
LYC approaching a ST Buy Zone - not enough signals yet - it's just a watch & wait situation atm - if and when I do enter it will only be a very ST Trade.
 
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