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DrBourse TA Help for Beginners

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DrBourse said:
Sorry bout all that M8, it's been a slack day, only one buy, no sells, that means I need several BD's to calm my nerves.... Cya's tomorra....
ps - Lucky there aint no Sheep in this paddock, an angry bull and some sheep don't mix too good....
Click to expand...
Dr B got a stray self shedder (sheep, heavy hogget by the looks of it) that walked in a few weeks ago, no body has claimed it is it is very visable from the road Now thinks its a heifer. She who is never wrong is making it into a pet, even though I keep it Lamb Chops !!!!
 
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Today is Friday 20/10/23 at abt 2.15pm….
Some Weekend Homework for Beginners....
We obviously do not know what will happen on Monday 23/10/23….

But have a look at GUD….. The current SP @ abt $10.80 is BELOW it’s Current IV $12.41...
This is a situation where we need to prepare for and be ready to enter if all goes to plan….

If Monday Mornings Candle is Green, it will, in effect, be a Bounce off the BCF (pages 197 to 199),..
And the DMI should follow the standard DMI Rules (see instructions on the chart & pages 105–107)….
The CCI Indicator has already formed a Double Bottom (pages 20, 82, 96, 97 & 109)….
The DMI Blue Line has already crossed up through the Red D- Line…. (pages 105, 106 & 107)…
So the DMI should produce the Blue Line continuing up, the Red Line Turn Down, and the Green Line turn UP….

Then we would need to watch what happens to the Blue & Green Lines – On the previous trade 13/6/23 to 18/9/23, note where the Blue & Green Lines were from 12/7/23 to 18/9/23 in relation to the actual SP…. That is, while the Blue & Green lines are above the Red Line, we stay in the Trade, even though there were a few Minor Exit Signals...

If the above does not go to plan, we revert to Plan B, and look for something else to trade....
Cheers...
DrB...
 
I Don't Get it
Trend lines IMHO need at least 2 and even 3 is better to draw a line
A trend line drawn from only ONE (1) point can be drawn to any 180 degrees
As they say
If it works for you it works for you

It doesn't work for me
 
Hi Captain C….

Yes. you are correct, AND No, you are not correct…. Allow me to explain…..
As you know, everything changes, new innovations appear….
The Rule for Trend lines used to be, to touch 2 or maybe 3 points….
Today, most “TA Types” call for a MINIMUM of 5 Points for each Trend Line…..
A Support/Resistance Trend Line should also touch at least Five O,H,L or C points (see page 35).




Next, you mention only ONE(1) point, so I assume you are referring to what’s known as a “Benchmark Candle Formation” (BCF) – And yes, it is drawn from 3 points from within a BCF….

You asked the same Question of me back on 16th March 2023 post #188 here in my General Help for Beginners Forum – you obviously missed that post… suggest that you read it ASAP….

I then followed post #188 with post #189 & 191 also in my General Help for Beginners Forum …..

Might I also suggest that you read post #198, that post explains a bit more about the BCF, as well as Commercially Published TA and Un-Published TA, also in my General Help for Beginners Forum ….

There are numerous examples of the BCF in action, such as post #166, #201, #208, #209, #215, also in my General Help for Beginners Forum ….

RIC is one of the better examples of the BCF Theory – this post is from my Forum TA Help for Beginners Post #157 dated 17/2/23:-



Now here is the current Chart – still under the influence of the 12 month old BCF….



Hope all that helps…

Cheers…
DrB
 
Hi Again Captain C....
Thought I would re-post a few old paragraphs here as they refer to the above BCF discussion.....

"A Bullish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Green Candles wholly ABOVE the Top Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all ABOVE that Top Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
AND....
A Bearish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Red Candles wholly BELOW the Bottom Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all BELOW that Bottom Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
THEN.....
If the SP re-enters the Benchmark Candle Formation the entire process begins again"....

AND

"Most of the Commercially Published TA, and to a lesser extent FA, is aimed at the Beginners of this Industry.

Most of the Un-Published TA, and to a lesser extent FA, is tightly held within Industry Ranks of Brokers, Merchant Bankers, etc. etc.

The fact that I often post the Un-Published TA is what the Professionals within the ASX World are pizzed off about".

Such as Unpublished TA about Benchmark Candles, Containment Candles (page 30), and a few others..
In other words Brokers and savvy traders know that the Mums and Dads, and the beginners use, namely the old versions, Brokers & savvy traders use the Un-Published Versions....

Everyone should be using their own Research and their own Common Sense when reading my posts....

Cheers...
DrB.
 
Anyone wanting a copy of the PDF documents (over 200 pages), should contact me via the ASF Private Conversation Facility....
 
For todays useless bit of info, I submit the following for all Beginners to consider..

VALUING GOLD, ETC AND OTHER INDICIES..
Technical Analysis (TA) and the Internet are the only real Research Tools we have for GOLD and other indicies...
There is no such thing as "Fundamental Factors or Fundamental Analysis for Gold, Silver, etc, or most Indicies".
That is, there are no Ratios, Margins of Safety, or Balance Sheet Analysis of any kind available to us that would produce what is known as Fundamental Analysis or Fundamental Factors…
There are, however, outside influences, such as Soverign Country Manipulation, Economic & Market Forces, Wars, Political Interference, Brokers Analysis, Announcements, Press Releases, Ramping, Inuendos, Speculation, Fear & FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), Chat Room Posts, and other misleading information that we can use to help evaluate the likes of Gold/Indicies etc....
(There are bound to be some others I have omitted or can't remember)...

SO, as mentioned above, remember that the only real Research Tool we have is our knowledge of Technical Analysis (TA), and other published information from trusted sources (such as the Internet)…
 
A possible ST Trade I am contemplating on BKW tomorrow 7/12/23 or the next day - beginners may wish to look at and see what they think....

I already have the CCI Entry Signal Rising Up through it's WMA....(pages108 & 109).....
Need to watch the DMI Indicator (pages 105, 106 & 107) for the following:-



Look at the previous trades to see what happens to the SP when the Blue/Green DMI Lines are above the RED...
Remember to DYOR....
DrB
 
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jog on
duc
 
WDS is in a similar position to that of BKW (see my BKW post yesterday).... WDS is almost at its long term Bottom of $29.23..... DYOR....
 
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Tuesday - 16/4/24 - 10.15am – CSL SP $276.18 – IV $252.97…

CSL performing as I expected – place your bets for the next level, will it be $286.50, $271.20, 255.78, $242.02 or 223.16 ?

For those of you interested in various forms of TA Indicators, have a look at the DMI & CCI on the attached Chart..


Note what happens to the SP when the DMI Red & Blue Lines are above the Green…
Note what happens to the SP when the DMI Green & Blue Lines are above the Red…
Note what happens to the SP when the DMI Green, Red & Blue Lines are clustered together…

ALSO

Note what happens to the SP when the CCI Blue Line Crosses Up through the Red…
Note what happens to the SP when the CCI Blue Line Crosses Down through the Red…
Note what happens to the SP when the CCI Green, Blue & Red Lines are clustered together…

Here are the simple rules for the DMI – they are usually shown on all my charts..


Also look at (pages 105, 106 & 107) for the DMI Indicator – those pages are in the Forum “DrBourse TA Help for Beginners” (post nr 28 on page 2).

Now look at (pages 108 & 109) for CCI Indicator – those pages are in the Forum “DrBourse TA Help for Beginners” (post nr 29 on page 2).

There are more DMI & CCI Quotes within the other 2 Forums, “DrBourse FA Help for Beginners” & “DrBourse General Help for Beginners”..

Cheers..
DrB.
 
Tuesday 16/4/24 11.45am...
Another one for the Beginners to consider....
Take a look at the attached TLS Cht – look at the DMI & CCI positions on 18/8/23 – look at what happened in the 7 weeks after 18/8/23…


Now look at the DMI & CCI positions today – almost identical – what do you think may happen next – We Technimentals would not even consider entering TLS till somewhere above $3.80+…

Of Course all TA is a Daily Call, things may change, but not many savvy punters are buying TLS atm..

Obviously we all use different trading tools – but most TA when you understand it, is so compelling and obvious for TA followers…
 
DrBourse said:
Tuesday - 16/4/24 - 10.15am – CSL SP $276.18 – IV $252.97…

CSL performing as I expected – place your bets for the next level, will it be $286.50, $271.20, 255.78, $242.02 or 223.16 ?


Cheers..
DrB.
Click to expand...

That is quite a spread of figures you have there.

For someone that does not trade can you explain why you have come to the conclusion that the SP will go back up to about $286.5 before plunging to those lows?

Or are you pointing out that no one knows what will happen from here, and prices are going to fluctuate in every direction?

Thanks in advance.
 
Hi JohnDe,....

Think you are assuming too much there JD,,,
I made no mention of CSL moving Up then Down,,,
I am simply showing Beginners, some of what I look for in TA....

I am simply pointing out that from a Basic TA perspective, most TA types understand, and can see, that TA is a Daily Event...
Things happen Daily that can change the public's perception of a Stocks SP...
So, in this instance, with CSL, Future information may force the SP UP to the next Resistance Level @ $286.50, at that point, if that happens, TA would need to be recalculated - OR, alternatively, force the SP down through the next 4 Support Levels, then if CSL ever reaches $223.16, I would need to recalculate CSL's TA Fate.....

Back on 17/6/23 I suggested 3 drops in the SP - most people disagreed, they were wrong....
Now I am suggesting something similar, Maybe a ST Rise this time, BUT then, more likely 3 or 4 ST SP drops...
My Call is for continued Weakness in the CSL SP...

In my case, I extensively use the Benchmark Candle Formation as one of main Tools of Trade to base my TA on....
That BCF sets its normal Support & Resistance Lines - as you will notice there is an uncanny way that the CSL SP Hits or Bounces off those BCF Lines...
Use of the BCF along with DMI, CCI & MFI Indicators have been very successful for me...

PS:- There are quite a few more past posts of mine in the CSL Forum starting on page 31, Post Nr 629.... thu to page39, post Nr 772....

Cheers...
DrB.
 
For anyone interested in the DMI Indicator (ADXR, D+ & D-), I attach an expanded Quick Reference Guide..

This was the original - I'm not using it on my charts anymore...


This is the Updated version - I will include it on any future Charts that I post...




Also refer to Pages 105, 106 & 107 in Manual Nr 1...

Cheers...
DrB.
 
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This WDS Chart is a reasonable Example...


So for WDS I need the CCI Blue Line to Cross UP through the RED WMA - Thats the 1st Buy Signal...
Then I need to see a favourable combination signal of the Blue & Green Lines ABOVE the RED..
And hopefully the MFI ABOVE the Centre Line (Water Line)..

Note what happens to the SP when the DMI Red & Blue Lines are above the Green…
Note what happens to the SP when the DMI Green & Blue Lines are above the Red…
Note what happens to the SP when the DMI Green, Red & Blue Lines are clustered together…

ALSO

Note what happens to the SP when the CCI Blue Line Crosses Up through the Red…
Note what happens to the SP when the CCI Blue Line Crosses Down through the Red…

Good Luck with all that..
 
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