DrBourse TA Help for Beginners

[DrBourse]

Hi sean...
Yep always known that Icon was there....just had no idea what is was....

So what happens to the Bookmark after you Label it etc.....is there a list of existing Bookmarks that anyone can access.

Actually I remember Skate suggesting that I put my "Snapshots & Manuals" on Bookmark (or something similar) as .pdf Documents....

 

[Sean K]

Hi sean...
Yep always known that Icon was there....just had no idea what is was....

So what happens to the Bookmark after you Label it etc.....is there a list of existing Bookmarks that anyone can access.

Good questions. One for @Joe Blow

 

[divs4ever]

Hi sean...
Yep always known that Icon was there....just had no idea what is was....

So what happens to the Bookmark after you Label it etc.....is there a list of existing Bookmarks that anyone can access.

bookmarks on other forums ( i am still clueless on ASF bookmarks ) are only available to the member who bookmarked it ( and possibly mods and sys admin in case naughty stuff has been saved there )

 

[Joe Blow]

So what happens to the Bookmark after you Label it etc.....is there a list of existing Bookmarks that anyone can access.

Bookmarks are accessible through your main user menu. Click on your User Name in the main navigation area and a menu will drop down. Click on "Bookmarks" (see below) and you can access all the posts you have bookmarked.

 

[DrBourse]

Bookmarks are accessible through your main user menu. Click on your User Name in the main navigation area and a menu will drop down. Click on "Bookmarks" (see below) and you can access all the posts you have bookmarked.

View attachment 153864

Thanks Joe.... so as I understand it, it is basically a Hyperlink directly to the selected post, and it is only visible to myself.

 

[DrBourse]

you could always try to sweet-talk Joe Blow into adding a bookmark feature to member's accounts

so folks ( especially novices and newcomers ) can find memorable posts easily

some posts deserve immortality

Hi Rabbit & Divs.....
The other option is that I email 275 (the ones I refer to most often) of the 500 Snapshots/Presentation Slides to any interested parties.....
They are in 2 separate .pdf documents....They are FREE......Just Gotta Ask......
From there it is easy for newbies & beginners to view the .pdf's on their own PC.....I have hard copies as 2 bound books on my desk all day every day.....
A lot of the old Comsuc Chatters had copies......Skate got his copies 11 years ago.......
I think a list of my posts is accessable by all via double clicking my avitar Twice, then selecting 'Latest Activity' and/or 'Postings'....

p.kronk968@gmail.com
DrB

 

[DrBourse]

Hi Rabbit & Divs.....
The other option is that I email 275 (the ones I refer to most often) of the 500 Snapshots/Presentation Slides to any interested parties.....
They are in 2 separate .pdf documents....They are FREE......Just Gotta Ask......
From there it is easy for newbies & beginners to view the .pdf's on their own PC.....I have hard copies as 2 bound books on my desk all day every day.....
A lot of the old Comsuc Chatters had copies......Skate got his copies 11 years ago.......
I think a list of my posts is accessable by all via double clicking my avitar Twice, then selecting 'Latest Activity' and/or 'Postings'....

p.kronk968@gmail.com
DrB

Sorry folks......Typo with my email addy....should have been - pkronk968@gmail.com

 

[DrBourse]

The following was a post in the PLS – Pilbara Minerals forum 15/3/23 – thought I would post it here for the benefit of Beginners & Newbies….

Hi Captain C…..

No worries M8….it's really encouraging to see someone actually asking the tough questions.....much to their detriment, most punters just brush off something they don't understand.....Congrats for asking the Q.....

I presume you are referring to the Candle on 26/1/23 (@ $3.68) on the chart below:-


It’s called a “Continuation Benchmark Candle Formation”, I have put an Ellipse (the Blue Ellipse) to highlight the actual BC formation…..it has Top, Bottom & Middle Lines that radiate out from those Top, Bottom & Middle positions.

If my assumption is correct then I will refer you to pages 197, 198 & 199 and recent XJO &WDS Charts all shown Below.…..




The Normal Published Theory that the “Sheep” use is for a Minimum 3 Points of Contact for a Trend Line….

Most Brokers & Professional Analysts (Nowdays) rely on a minimum of 5 Contact for a Trend Line….

As you suggest just relying on one contact point is pretty useless….

The Benchmark Candle Formation (Usually ONE Large Candle) AND the Continuation Benchmark Candle Formation (usually any number of Red Candles or Green Candles) states that the only points of reference are, as I mentioned above, Top, Middle & Bottom Points…..NOTE:- that there is leeway in that, a minimal nr of opposite colour candles is permitted….SO We may have, say, 10 Red candles but there may be a few Green Doji Type Candles within that BC – that is acceptable…..

The pages 197, 198 & 199 are self explanatory….

The XJO Chart shows a recurring series of BC’s….

And the WDS Chart shows TWO BC’s that combine to form one really large BC’s…..



The important aspect to this Formation is to note the Nr of times that the SP hits,and/or bounces off the 3 BC Lines......

Bit Complicated, but this is a Complicated Profession….
Hope that answers your Question - Happy to clarify any of the above…..

Cheers….
DrB.
================================================================================
As a follow-up to my above post, thought I would give another example of the Benchmark Candlestick Formation done for a M8 of mine back on 16/11/22, along with a copy of the RIC Charts for 17/2/23 & 15/3/23.......



And Todays Chart 15/3/22..........


This is a perfect example of the Benchmark Candlestick Formation...

RIC is still under the effects of this BC Formation 4 Months after it formed - and looks likely to govern RIC's SP for a bit longer,,

Cheers....
DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

Another Re-posting for Beginners & Newbies to Ponder.....

If you were in MCR late last week, you have obviously done very well, although I have no idea what would have made anybody want to buy MCR in the last 10 or 11 months – as it’s been a bit of a Pullback over that time…..

TA for MCR produces an odd Combination of a perfect Benchmark Candle Formation AND a Combination Benchmark Candle Formation that just happens to produce a Centre Line @ $1.44, that’s about where todays SP is hesitating, interesting to say the least..

The High Point of the BC reflects the maximum that punters are willing to pay for MCR over recent times, so a Sell on the CCI & MFI signals for 23/1/23 was a great move.

The Low Point of the BC reflects the minimum that punters are willing to sell MCR atm.

The Centre Point $1.44 is obviously related to the current Wyloo announcement’s.

The problem for anyone wanting to Buy in now is that they have no idea which way the MCR SP will go next.

MCR’s IV atm is about $1.16. – it’s a nightmare situation – Buy and you will prob loose – wait and you will miss the boat.

I always avoid situations like this – too many unknowns, best to move onto another stock IMO.


Cheers.
DrB

 

[DrBourse]

A lot of stocks are displaying "ST Sell Divergences" (see pages 45, 98 & 99) along with a lot more showing "Loss of Momentum" (see page 17).....
Suggest that anyone contemplating an entry this afternoon carries out Due Dilligence.....
Remember to DYOR....
Remember that I rely heavily on a CCI 10 and an MFI 30 for my basic TA.....
Way too many to mention at this time of day - BUT - Stocks in question include - NCM, SOL, TLS, WES, PRU, GEM, GUD, NUF, NWS, ORA, ORI, PLL, SHL, SUL, & TCL......
Cheers.....
DrB......

 

[DrBourse]

This post refers to “Researching Indices” (Gold in particular)…..

My Stock Selection is based on 60% Financial Analysis and 40% Technical Analysis - If a stock does not meet my FA criteria, then I do not bother with its TA (so PD’s are never on my Hit List) - Once I locate a Financially Sound Stock, I then proceed to look at its TA…..

HOWEVER….

When looking at, or researching Indices, those percentages change to 75% Technical Analysis and 25% from other sources,……

Over the years I have frequently seen Beginners saying that the TA of a particular Indices “Look OK, or, Uptrend Continuing”, the problem with those statements is that the Beginner is just taking a cursory glance at the Chart as they usually do not have a good enough knowledge of TA to be able to make a call like that….

Someone recently said that the chart below” Was still in Uptrend and looks OK”……



THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE IS THAT THE ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS NOT STILL IN AN UPTREND, IT IS CURRENTLY IN A SHORT- TERM DOWNTREND”.….

And now to explain why the ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS ACTUALLY IN A SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND”.….

Look at the XAUUSD Chart below as it highlights some of the TA Beginners must understand before committing their Hard Earned….

Note that there are so many Very Negative TA Signals that the untrained will miss….

Firstly there is the current Benchmark Candle Formation (see pages 197 to 199) where we still need to see if a breakout will occur…..

A Bullish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Green Candles wholly ABOVE the Top Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all ABOVE that Top Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
AND....
A Bearish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Red Candles wholly BELOW the Bottom Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all BELOW that Bottom Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
THEN.....
If the SP re-enters the Benchmark Candle Formation the entire process begins again....

Then there are numerous Indicator Sell Divergences (see pages 45, 82, 91, 93, 95, 97, 98, 99, 102, 104, & 109 for some examples) I’m sure you will be able to spot them……

Then you should notice that the first 5 candles (20/3/23 to 24/3/23 - 2 Red, 2 Green, then One Red) of this current BCF show ”Loss of Momentum”, and, that Sellers were in control then (see page 5)…..

Then you should note that the last 3 candles (5/4/23 to 10/4/23) show ”Loss of Momentum”, and that Sellers are currently still in control (see page 5)…..

Then you may notice what happened to the smaller Benchmark Candle Formation back in early Jan 2023 where it dropped back to the Bottom Band of the Linear Regression (see pages139 to 142) – could that happen again?….

We must wait for some type of confirmation, from whatever source, that a trend is going to continue or maybe reverse – making a wild guess at future ST direction or trend is a risky way to play the ASX….


Yes, some of the above indicators are similar, but they are also different, and they all have a different story to tell - the trick is learning to understand what each indicators story is.....
Knowledge is EVERYTHING in this profession….
TA is not an exact science – it has its limitations – so remember to DYOR.

Cheers....
DrB.

 

[Sean K]

This post refers to “Researching Indices” (Gold in particular)…..

My Stock Selection is based on 60% Financial Analysis and 40% Technical Analysis - If a stock does not meet my FA criteria, then I do not bother with its TA (so PD’s are never on my Hit List) - Once I locate a Financially Sound Stock, I then proceed to look at its TA…..

HOWEVER….

When looking at, or researching Indices, those percentages change to 75% Technical Analysis and 25% from other sources,……

Over the years I have frequently seen Beginners saying that the TA of a particular Indices “Look OK, or, Uptrend Continuing”, the problem with those statements is that the Beginner is just taking a cursory glance at the Chart as they usually do not have a good enough knowledge of TA to be able to make a call like that….

Someone recently said that the chart below” Was still in Uptrend and looks OK”……
View attachment 155569


THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE IS THAT THE ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS NOT STILL IN AN UPTREND, IT IS CURRENTLY IN A SHORT- TERM DOWNTREND”.….

And now to explain why the ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS ACTUALLY IN A SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND”.….

Look at the XAUUSD Chart below as it highlights some of the TA Beginners must understand before committing their Hard Earned….

Note that there are so many Very Negative TA Signals that the untrained will miss….

Firstly there is the current Benchmark Candle Formation (see pages 197 to 199) where we still need to see if a breakout will occur…..

A Bullish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Green Candles wholly ABOVE the Top Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all ABOVE that Top Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
AND....
A Bearish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Red Candles wholly BELOW the Bottom Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all BELOW that Bottom Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
THEN.....
If the SP re-enters the Benchmark Candle Formation the entire process begins again....

Then there are numerous Indicator Sell Divergences (see pages 45, 82, 91, 93, 95, 97, 98, 99, 102, 104, & 109 for some examples) I’m sure you will be able to spot them……

Then you should notice that the first 5 candles (20/3/23 to 24/3/23 - 2 Red, 2 Green, then One Red) of this current BCF show ”Loss of Momentum”, and, that Sellers were in control then (see page 5)…..

Then you should note that the last 3 candles (5/4/23 to 10/4/23) show ”Loss of Momentum”, and that Sellers are currently still in control (see page 5)…..

Then you may notice what happened to the smaller Benchmark Candle Formation back in early Jan 2023 where it dropped back to the Bottom Band of the Linear Regression (see pages139 to 142) – could that happen again?….

We must wait for some type of confirmation, from whatever source, that a trend is going to continue or maybe reverse – making a wild guess at future ST direction or trend is a risky way to play the ASX….

View attachment 155570
Yes, some of the above indicators are similar, but they are also different, and they all have a different story to tell - the trick is learning to understand what each indicators story is.....
Knowledge is EVERYTHING in this profession….
TA is not an exact science – it has its limitations – so remember to DYOR.

Cheers....
DrB.

Just basic TA says that USDPOG holding above the breakup from the pennant around $2K is bullish isn't it? In a medium term up trend since a triple bottom the probability is up, not down, no? Obviously breaking that short term support is a bail signal. I'm leaning towards a break down, just because it's run very hard and some people have made quite a bit of paper money since the bottoms and would like to realise some gains.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just basic TA says that USDPOG holding above the breakup from the pennant around $2K is bullish isn't it? In a medium term up trend since a triple bottom the probability is up, not down, no? Obviously breaking that short term support is a bail signal. I'm leaning towards a break down, just because it's run very hard and some people have made quite a bit of paper money since the bottoms and would like to realise some gains.

I'd agree Sean.

All Central Banks and bad actors who need Gold for next Brics meeting are set.

Any punters who bought Gold in Apr 22 and Aug 20 at these levels may now want to get out.

Question is if you are going long would you buy at the near top of a triple high, or wait.

I still reckon $USD1840 is a suitable attainable entry point again, and not too far away.



gg

 

[Sean K]

I'd agree Sean.

All Central Banks and bad actors who need Gold for next Brics meeting are set.

Any punters who bought Gold in Apr 22 and Aug 20 at these levels may now want to get out.

Question is if you are going long would you buy at the near top of a triple high, or wait.

I still reckon $USD1840 is a suitable attainable entry point again, and not too far away.

View attachment 155573

gg

It's a watch and shoot situation for me. If it holds above $2k and confidently runs through $2070 then all bets are off. I think FOMO will grip it and run hard. Otherwise, wait till it sinks back to old support to buy more. I'm only long gold and not selling till $2600 ish.

Sorry to hijack your thread @DrBourse

Will be interesting to see which way this example goes based on your multifaceted TA and my charts from a hunch.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

This post refers to “Researching Indices” (Gold in particular)…..

My Stock Selection is based on 60% Financial Analysis and 40% Technical Analysis - If a stock does not meet my FA criteria, then I do not bother with its TA (so PD’s are never on my Hit List) - Once I locate a Financially Sound Stock, I then proceed to look at its TA…..

HOWEVER….

When looking at, or researching Indices, those percentages change to 75% Technical Analysis and 25% from other sources,……

Over the years I have frequently seen Beginners saying that the TA of a particular Indices “Look OK, or, Uptrend Continuing”, the problem with those statements is that the Beginner is just taking a cursory glance at the Chart as they usually do not have a good enough knowledge of TA to be able to make a call like that….

Someone recently said that the chart below” Was still in Uptrend and looks OK”……
View attachment 155569


THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE IS THAT THE ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS NOT STILL IN AN UPTREND, IT IS CURRENTLY IN A SHORT- TERM DOWNTREND”.….

And now to explain why the ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS ACTUALLY IN A SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND”.….

Look at the XAUUSD Chart below as it highlights some of the TA Beginners must understand before committing their Hard Earned….

Note that there are so many Very Negative TA Signals that the untrained will miss….

Firstly there is the current Benchmark Candle Formation (see pages 197 to 199) where we still need to see if a breakout will occur…..

A Bullish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Green Candles wholly ABOVE the Top Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all ABOVE that Top Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
AND....
A Bearish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Red Candles wholly BELOW the Bottom Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all BELOW that Bottom Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
THEN.....
If the SP re-enters the Benchmark Candle Formation the entire process begins again....

Then there are numerous Indicator Sell Divergences (see pages 45, 82, 91, 93, 95, 97, 98, 99, 102, 104, & 109 for some examples) I’m sure you will be able to spot them……

Then you should notice that the first 5 candles (20/3/23 to 24/3/23 - 2 Red, 2 Green, then One Red) of this current BCF show ”Loss of Momentum”, and, that Sellers were in control then (see page 5)…..

Then you should note that the last 3 candles (5/4/23 to 10/4/23) show ”Loss of Momentum”, and that Sellers are currently still in control (see page 5)…..

Then you may notice what happened to the smaller Benchmark Candle Formation back in early Jan 2023 where it dropped back to the Bottom Band of the Linear Regression (see pages139 to 142) – could that happen again?….

We must wait for some type of confirmation, from whatever source, that a trend is going to continue or maybe reverse – making a wild guess at future ST direction or trend is a risky way to play the ASX….

View attachment 155570
Yes, some of the above indicators are similar, but they are also different, and they all have a different story to tell - the trick is learning to understand what each indicators story is.....
Knowledge is EVERYTHING in this profession….
TA is not an exact science – it has its limitations – so remember to DYOR.

Cheers....
DrB.

I'd agree totally with your TA @DrBourse .

As @Sean K said my apologies too for highjacking the thread.

It is a watch and wait imo with the bears ahead of the bulls on many TA interpretations both long and short term.

Wise of you to include the indicators commentary which is crucial where divergences occur for gold bugs buying.

FOMO will take hold above ( $USD2050 I believe with a break and retracement ) the mid to higher $2050's+ as @Sean K suggested above $2070.

Lousy English but you know what I mean, fatigue and some meds I'm on.

Keep up the interesting TA Ed, @DrBourse, vital for beginners.

gg

 

[ducati916]

This post refers to “Researching Indices” (Gold in particular)…..

My Stock Selection is based on 60% Financial Analysis and 40% Technical Analysis - If a stock does not meet my FA criteria, then I do not bother with its TA (so PD’s are never on my Hit List) - Once I locate a Financially Sound Stock, I then proceed to look at its TA…..

HOWEVER….

When looking at, or researching Indices, those percentages change to 75% Technical Analysis and 25% from other sources,……

Over the years I have frequently seen Beginners saying that the TA of a particular Indices “Look OK, or, Uptrend Continuing”, the problem with those statements is that the Beginner is just taking a cursory glance at the Chart as they usually do not have a good enough knowledge of TA to be able to make a call like that….

Someone recently said that the chart below” Was still in Uptrend and looks OK”……
View attachment 155569


THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE IS THAT THE ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS NOT STILL IN AN UPTREND, IT IS CURRENTLY IN A SHORT- TERM DOWNTREND”.….

And now to explain why the ABOVE CHART IS “NOT OK” AND “THAT IT IS ACTUALLY IN A SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND”.….

Look at the XAUUSD Chart below as it highlights some of the TA Beginners must understand before committing their Hard Earned….

Note that there are so many Very Negative TA Signals that the untrained will miss….

Firstly there is the current Benchmark Candle Formation (see pages 197 to 199) where we still need to see if a breakout will occur…..

A Bullish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Green Candles wholly ABOVE the Top Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all ABOVE that Top Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
AND....
A Bearish ST Breakout from a Benchmark Candle Formation is when there are 2 consecutive Red Candles wholly BELOW the Bottom Benchmark Candle Formation Line, that is, OHL&C all BELOW that Bottom Line - Then there needs to be confirmation from other Indicators, in my case I use the CCI & the MFI....
THEN.....
If the SP re-enters the Benchmark Candle Formation the entire process begins again....

Then there are numerous Indicator Sell Divergences (see pages 45, 82, 91, 93, 95, 97, 98, 99, 102, 104, & 109 for some examples) I’m sure you will be able to spot them……

Then you should notice that the first 5 candles (20/3/23 to 24/3/23 - 2 Red, 2 Green, then One Red) of this current BCF show ”Loss of Momentum”, and, that Sellers were in control then (see page 5)…..

Then you should note that the last 3 candles (5/4/23 to 10/4/23) show ”Loss of Momentum”, and that Sellers are currently still in control (see page 5)…..

Then you may notice what happened to the smaller Benchmark Candle Formation back in early Jan 2023 where it dropped back to the Bottom Band of the Linear Regression (see pages139 to 142) – could that happen again?….

We must wait for some type of confirmation, from whatever source, that a trend is going to continue or maybe reverse – making a wild guess at future ST direction or trend is a risky way to play the ASX….

View attachment 155570
Yes, some of the above indicators are similar, but they are also different, and they all have a different story to tell - the trick is learning to understand what each indicators story is.....
Knowledge is EVERYTHING in this profession….
TA is not an exact science – it has its limitations – so remember to DYOR.

Cheers....
DrB.

Morning Dr. B;

You seem to have a very odd definition of an (up) trend.

A common and reasonably accepted definition of an (up) trend being: higher highs, higher lows. Another could simply be the slope of MAs.



Certainly by those definitions (illustration) gold remains currently in an (up) trend.

Reference to derivatives turning down do not negate a trend as many of those highlighted are not true indicators of trend at all. They are momentum etc.

Relying on technicals and assigning low weight to the fundamentals or ignoring completely is an individual decision and has merit/demerit. Personally I feel the merits far outweigh the demerits, but that is me.

When you stand back and look at the big technical picture:



What do you see? A (down) trend?

jog on
duc

 

[DrBourse]

Morning Dr. B;

You seem to have a very odd definition of an (up) trend.

A common and reasonably accepted definition of an (up) trend being: higher highs, higher lows. Another could simply be the slope of MAs.

View attachment 155583

Certainly by those definitions (illustration) gold remains currently in an (up) trend.

Reference to derivatives turning down do not negate a trend as many of those highlighted are not true indicators of trend at all. They are momentum etc.

Relying on technicals and assigning low weight to the fundamentals or ignoring completely is an individual decision and has merit/demerit. Personally I feel the merits far outweigh the demerits, but that is me.

When you stand back and look at the big technical picture:

View attachment 155584

What do you see? A (down) trend?

jog on
duc

Hi ducati,

Yep I agree with everything you said…..

I guess its just a timing thing….

Those punters that have a copy of my Manual understand my Trading Rules, others don’t understand….

My Trading Timeframes are Very Short…..

I try to locate stocks that will increase in price over the course of the 5 Trading Days each week. I look to Buy on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, then Sell on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. My Exit Points are primarily dictated by what I read within Candlesticks, Indicators and Other Tools of Trade. I will only buy if/when my entry parameters are met. Some of those parameters will change hour by hour, according to market movements…..

So, I was only looking at the Short Trend for 5/4/23, 6/4/23 & 10/4/23 on the XAUUSD Chart, and for me that is a ST Downtrend….

After re-reading my post I realize that I was a bit too blunt and almost aggressive – sorry about that…

My apologies to yourself, gg & Sean….

The World would be a terrible place if we all agreed all of the time, or, if we all disagreed all of the time…

Differing opinions usually lead to constructive conversations that are amicably resolved….

Everyone’s opinion is important…

Cheers….

DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

I would like to mention that I am copping Agro from quite a few Professionals within the ASX World, people within the industry that I have worked within the past – They seem to think they have a God Given Right to some of the Educational TA that I post.



Most of the Commercially Published TA, and to a lesser extent FA, is aimed at the Beginners & Sheep of this Industry.

Most of the Un-Published TA, and to a lesser extent FA, is tightly held within Industry Ranks of Brokers, Merchant Bankers, etc. etc.

The fact that I often post the Un-Published TA is what the abovementioned Professionals within the ASX World are pizzed off about.



Just because a few ASF Punters have not heard of some of my TA approach to Trading they feel they have to criticize – they feel the need to ‘score points’ at my expense, and their criticism serves to highlight deficiencies in their own approach to Share Trading Analysis.

One Punter went so far as to suggest that I just make everything up as I go – that’s a pretty dumb thing for anyone to say unless they have the knowledge to challenge my posts.

So, I certainly don’t need the “un-educated & irritating flack” that I get from some ASF Punters.

I should just back-off and ignore the knockers – but that’s not my style.

The fact that I continually find the need to justify myself within ASF is annoying and time consuming.

Just wanted to set the record straight for any interested beginners, and remind them to use their own common-sense in relation to my posts.

Cheers..
DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

Sunday 2/1/22 7.29am

Hi Redrob,

A Happy and prosperous New Year to you too.

Not sure what your problem is M8, but you are obviously not reading my previous posts within this TA Forum.

I’m sorry that you find my NCM post confusing – happy to help you in any way I can.



Firstly – Beginners usually take things “as quoted”, like the Commsec TA I mention above, I was only highlighting the fact that the TA was not initiated by Commsec.

I made no reference to any “buy/sell recommendations”, not sure why you would mention buy/sell.

Second – We obviously have a different reading on that TA, bearing mind the SP drop, that TA was way off target.

Third – thought we had established that it was a 3rd party call, not CommSec, or do you now feel that the garbage TA call was actually commsec’s – hmmmmmmmmmm.

Using TA in the Xmas/new year period works the same as any other time of year- It’s called a Contrarian approach, it just depends on the individuals knowledge of TA.

Fourth – 200 or even 300 are quite often common levels for the CCI.

At 100 the CCI often invokes what is accepted as a “Significantly Higher High”.

Reading pages 108 & 109 may help you.

Fifth -again I suggest you read pages 95, 108 & 109, as well as those, there are other examples within this forum and other ASF forums.

The CCI/MFI tandem approach works well, particularly in 2021 – once you understand how to read the signs.

Six – I always use a 100 day Linear Regression, it does not always need to be in an uptrend, perhaps you should read pages 139 to 142.



Finally, Ahh Ha, a counter trend, now who would think that! – and how would anyone come to a conclusion like that?

Redrob, your attacks are becoming tiresome, if you are going to continue you will need to improve on your 6 point post performance.

I have no intention of explaining everything to you, the information you seek is all within the 3 DrB Forums.

However, here is one of the many tricks to the CCI/MFI combo – the CCI gives the early signal, but to proceed you need a confirming signal from the MFI.


Always happy to accept criticism from people that know what they are talking about, unfortunately you have a lot to learn.

DrB

Had a bit of spare time, so I had a look back at some old posts…..

Found something that the Beginner’s may like to research….

Noticed an interesting disagreement I had with Rederob, where I tried to help him as he was confused about some aspects of TA……

The posts I refer to were back on 1st & 2nd January 2022 Post Nr’s 57, 58, & 59 on page 3….

I know that not too many chatters will bother to look back on those post’s, but they are a great example of just how much people “Don’t Understand about Indicators”…..

In Rederob’s Fourth Point in post #58 he seemed to think that the CCI had Upper & Lower Limits…..

Then in my post #59, Fourth Point I tried to explain that the CCI is one of a few Indicators that have NO UPPER or LOWER LIMITS…..

So, just to Restate the obvious, I have attached a snapshot that gives a very short explanation on the CCI Upper & Lower Limits…..



Unfortunately Rederob has me on “Ignore”, so he will miss out on learning something useful….

Cheers…

DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

Had a bit of spare time, so I had a look back at some old posts…..

Found something that the Beginner’s may like to research….

Noticed an interesting disagreement I had with Rederob, where I tried to help him as he was confused about some aspects of TA……

The posts I refer to were back on 1st & 2nd January 2022 Post Nr’s 57, 58, & 59 on page 3….

I know that not too many chatters will bother to look back on those post’s, but they are a great example of just how much people “Don’t Understand about Indicators”…..

In Rederob’s Fourth Point in post #58 he seemed to think that the CCI had Upper & Lower Limits…..

Then in my post #59, Fourth Point I tried to explain that the CCI is one of a few Indicators that have NO UPPER or LOWER LIMITS…..

So, just to Restate the obvious, I have attached a snapshot that gives a very short explanation on the CCI Upper & Lower Limits…..

View attachment 156565

Unfortunately Rederob has me on “Ignore”, so he will miss out on learning something useful….

Cheers…

DrB.

For anyone wanting to learn a bit more about the CCI, I submit the following explanations & snapshots:- .....

https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/commoditychannelindex/ .....

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) .....

- is a fully unbounded oscillator and has no lower or upper limit......

The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis that measures an instrument's variations from its statistical mean. The CCI is a very well-known and widely-used indicator that has gained a level of popularity in no small part due to its versatility. It is a fully unbounded oscillator and has no lower or upper limit. The CCI is often used to find reversals as well as divergences. Originally, the indicator was designed to be used for identifying trends in commodities, however, it is now used on a wide range of financial instruments.


History
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was created by Donald Lambert and introduced in 1980. It first appeared in what was then known as Commodities Magazine.

Calculation​

There are several steps involved in calculating the Commodity Channel Index. The following example is for a typical 20 Period CCI:
CCI = (Typical Price - 20 Period SMA of TP) / (.015 x Mean Deviation)
Typical Price (TP) = (High + Low + Close)/3
Constant = .015
The Constant is set at .015 for scaling purposes. By including the constant, the majority of CCI values will fall within the 100 to -100 range. There are three steps to calculating the Mean Deviation.

1. Subtract the most recent 20 Period Simple Moving from each typical price (TP) for the Period.
2. Sum these numbers strictly using absolute values.
3. Divide the value generated in step 3 by the total number of Periods (20 in this case).

The basics
The Commodity Channel Index indicator takes a security's change in price and compares that to its average change in price. CCI's calculation produces positive and negative values that oscillate above and below a Zero Line. Typically a value of 100 is identified as overbought and a reading of -100 is identified as being oversold. However, it is important to note a couple of things.

1. Actual overbought and oversold thresholds can vary depending on the financial instrument being traded. For example, a more volatile instrument may have thresholds at 200 and -200.
2. Frequently, overbought/oversold conditions are seen as a precursor to a price reversal. However, when using CCI, overbought and oversold conditions can often be a sign of strength, meaning the current trend may be strengthening and continuing.

What to look for​

Overbought/Oversold​

Because The Commodity Channel Index's primary function is to identify when a security is either overbought or oversold, it makes sense that anticipating future movements of price when these levels are crossed, is crucial to getting the most out of the CCI.

• Overbought and Oversold conditions can be used in their more traditional sense to identify future reversals. Remember true overbought/oversold thresholds values can and often do vary between instruments.

When price crosses above the overbought threshold, a fall in price may occur soon afterwards.



Price crossing below oversold conditions may signify a reversal to a rise in price.

• Overbought and Oversold conditions can also be seen as a sign of strength when using the CCI. The current trend may be strengthening.

During a Bullish Trend, price crossing above the overbought threshold may indicate strong confidence in the move and price will continue to rise.



During a Bearish Trend, price crossing below the oversold threshold may indicate strong confidence in the move and price will continue to fall.


Divergence
Momentum often does precede changes in price. Therefore, as with most momentum based oscillators, divergence between price and the indicator's reading should not be ignored. The Commodity Channel Index is no different. Divergences between CCI and price action can be a signal that changes in trend may be forthcoming.

Bullish CCI Divergence occurs when price makes a lower low while CCI makes a higher low.



Bearish CCI Divergence occurs when price makes a higher high while CCI makes a lower high.


Summary
The fact that The Commodity Channel Index indicator has been in use now for over 30 years is a testament to the value placed on it within the technical analysis community. Time and time again it is demonstrated how important momentum is when analyzing the market and attempting to determine future moves. Whether you are using CCI to confirm trends or to look for reversals, its momentum quantifying prowess should not go unnoticed. Like most indicators, CCI is best used not as a stand-alone indicator but in conjunction with others.

Cheers...
DrB.