Discretionary Trading Method-----Outliers Discussion Thread

[vert]

have you noticed the large orders go through, 990000 & 1000000 @0.084. they are marked as crosstrades, would they have been buy orders?

go easy if this is obvious, im rather new at this.

 

[tech/a]

These are broker arranged.

One broker has a buyer and the other a seller.

The price is agreed and then the transaction takes place.

As they are above the market rate at the time I see them as buying confidence.

The seller however is happy to get out at a tad above market.
Cross trades are often at market.

 

[vert]

thanks tech/a, thats what i was hoping some buying confidence. sitting tight to the end

 

[tech/a]

sitting tight to the end

"The End" where might that be?

 

[nizar]

LOL! zero cents or 20cents i guess whichever one comes first!

 

[nizar]

tech if you got time id be keen to hear your thoughts on a few breakouts iv been watching:

SLA
MLS
SIM
WMT

thanks.

 

[tech/a]

WMT Im trading bought yesterday. Strong new buying.

SLA needs to settle too volatile wait for consolidation.
MLS needs to hold above .042.

SIM A bit far away from the ideal entry Id wait for a pullback to get on as I would on MLS.
The only time I wouldnt is if Volume indicates that momentum has taken hold.

Thats not the case with these.

 

[ezyTrader]

hi tech/a,
HYO has a strong climb albeit in relative lesser volume (Noticed you had that in your watchlist - from another thread).
What would your thoughts be on that? (I'm not trading it, just wondering what your entry point would be, if you enter) On breakout of 0.25 on 22/11, or, when volume(new buyers) is confirmed on 23/11 (yesterday)? Or, a different approach from above mentioned, eg, on rebound from retracement? Cheers, ezy.

 

[tech/a]

EZY

Sorry just noticed this.

The daily chart is below.
Like all good breakouts it comes from comsolidation.
This current move is a bit old if your not in yet.
So I were going to buy now then would expect a pullback so would take a smaller position.
If it continued then consolidated then I would top up that position if it broke from new consolidation.
Or if it dropped to 23c that would be my stop.I would workout parcle sizing from this equation from the buy price at the time.

Risk mitigation first then profit comes.

Its not shown any great weakness on the chart at all.

 

[tech/a]

WMT Im trading bought yesterday. Strong new buying.

WMT.

I'm having a good day for a change!!
This is an outlier move,didnt expect it to go this strongly watching carefully for any sign of prolonged weakness.

 

[ezyTrader]

I understand completely the risk mitigation strategy. But what would you advise with a small trading float (~10K) for situations like this?
Brokerage costs is significant in parcel sizes of $1-2.5K, and then if the 20% /2% position sizing rule is breached. RR is a bit top-heavy on risk.
Guess easy way out is to look for other potentials? And try to spot them earlier?

 

[ezyTrader]

WMT. I'm having a good day for a change!!

I wouldn't be grumpy with that, either!

 

[tech/a]

I understand completely the risk mitigation strategy. But what would you advise with a small trading float (~10K) for situations like this?
Brokerage costs is significant in parcel sizes of $1-2.5K, and then if the 20% /2% position sizing rule is breached. RR is a bit top-heavy on risk.
Guess easy way out is to look for other potentials? And try to spot them earlier?

EZY

This is a dilema many find themselves in. Basically what you say is correct in part.

Personally I would just buy one stock at a time.
I would be looking for low risk entries and the stock in question HYO has moved so far in the last 2 days that it is no longer a viable trade at this time.
so it goes back to the watch list.
I would only risk 2% or 3% on any one trade.
The closer you can get to a sustained move taking off the more you can buy.
There are often good moves in stocks prior to breakout which you'll have on your watchlist.
WMT I only saw just before close yesterday.

Lets have a look at one I have on my watchlist currently and see how that goes.
LEG.
You'll notice the range .085 to .083 and the odd spike below the .083.
Thats what I dont want to see.

My aim is to buy at .086 if there is consistant spiking above .085 with a stop at .082.
Id place a buy on a spike over .086 at .085 giving me a 3 tick stop if taken out. This band is the sort of consolidation which either---

Soaks up sellers or dries up buyers.The longer it goes the more violent and prolonged the move either way is likely to be.
So I'll report back on this as time goes by.

The chart is a tick chart.---every trade.

 

[tech/a]

WMT thanks for the ride out at 10c

 

[nizar]

I understand completely the risk mitigation strategy. But what would you advise with a small trading float (~10K) for situations like this?
Brokerage costs is significant in parcel sizes of $1-2.5K, and then if the 20% /2% position sizing rule is breached. RR is a bit top-heavy on risk.
Guess easy way out is to look for other potentials? And try to spot them earlier?

Agree.
I find myself in a similar situation.

See the placement of the stop is crucial. A stop, if hit, is meant to indicate to you that the reason you bought is no longer there ie. the trend has changed. But if a stock has already run so hard then it can fall a significant amount, and still be in an uptrend. In such situations, the trade is almost not worth it, because to ride the trend for as long as possible, you need a wide stop, and thus you can only buy a small parcel.

Yesterday would have been an ideal entry point for this one. Note the close at the higher part of the days trading range. Wednesday, though a close on the low, was still bullish is the wider scheme of things and the chart still looks very good on the daily and uptrend still intact.

 

[tech/a]

For anyone interested in my thoughts.
First ride .059 to 10c now they are rare indeed.

 

[tech/a]

Great finish to the week,off on a 2 day getaway.

WMT set again for next week..085c
(And they say Tech Analysis is voodoo!!).

 

[ezyTrader]

Great finish to the week,off on a 2 day getaway.

Well, have a good one, tech/a! Cheers!

 

[alankew]

Tech from the tick chart of WMT do you expect it to pullback to the support zone before taking off again(to my untrained eye if it were a longer timeframe it would look as though it is consolidating,what do you think)

 

[ezyTrader]

Hi tech/a,
Are you trading these - BLR, MLS, NLX?

Editted:
Plus a whole heap of others - MSC, MRX, etc.

How do you select which to enter??? :