Discretionary Trading Method-----Outliers Discussion Thread

[MichaelD]

WSA - I don't recall this coming up in my scans over the last few days so I won't comment on this one except to say that volume is very ordinary on the last bar so I have no interest in it.

BKP - This DID come up on my scans on breakout day, AND I had funds available to trade it, however, I chose something else to trade. I didn't like the short Stage 1 consolidation time and didn't like the look of the potential overhead resistance points it would encounter on the way up.

Thus, the best I can do is show how my EOD system would have traded BKP if I had entered it. The trade would have entered the day after breakout and would still be open and in sub 1R profit based on where the current stop would be. NOTE: I should make it very clear that this system is still very much a work in progress. I believe it is robust enough to be trial trading it at present, but am certainly interested in comments on ways to improve the exit.

 

[tech/a]

Michael.

I was thinking more of from today forward.
WSA came up on a T/T scan.
Volume is thin but personally looking longer timeframe.
Thin volume up could mean few sellers.
Just as thin volume down (more common) shows no buyers.
Both are in the Buy high sell higher thought train.

Just a point on close by consolidation (something from steidlmayer)
Price tends to fall back to ares of "Value" or consolidation.You see this very often in tick charts or futures charts which are 5 min or so bars.
Ill post some chart examples when I find some.
Something to watch for.

 

[MichaelD]

I was thinking more of from today forward.

BKP triggered again in my EOD breakout scan overnight. As an initial entry, I'd reject it since I see lots and lots of close overhead resistance from people who will be wanting to get out at breakeven for them. *If* I had entered on the first breakout, I would be happy with what's showing now - a second breakout trigger is generally a very positive sign for my system, and I'd be waiting to see from here whether it will push through the resistance (very good) or the move exhaust itself. For my system, this says HOLD, but not BUY.

WSA came up on a T/T scan.

WSA would trigger a buy in my long term trend following system as well based on the current chart. Coincidentally, I'm actually closing a position today so will have money to spend (but am putting it all towards further pyramiding of existing positions, not opening new positions).

 

[ezyTrader]

Really appreciate your candid sharing of your discretionary method.
Using your technique, AUZ looked as though it is ready for another rally after from last Friday's activity.

Applying your techniques, I would have bought either EOD Friday before close, or, at opening today, and trail a stop just below close Friday.

Will post later on my exercise.

 

[tech/a]

Watching myself (not in) nothing wrong with that ezy will watch with interst your trading on this one.
My feelings at this time 9.46 adelaide time.
Is that having missed the open a buy would be at .9c with a stop at .86 half a position.
Would add (If filled) to a full position over .096 which is current resistance.

Dont like chasing can be costly in these runners.

 

[tech/a]

AUZ strong will let you know what I do. If anything.

 

[ezyTrader]

Am not in this rally myself. Just applying your technique though... :

 

[ezyTrader]

Forgot to add, trail stop now at 0.094, just below last resistance/support line on 1-min tick chart.

 

[tech/a]

When these reach 10c and if they break through can be very profitable as support comes in a .05c levels instead of .01c levels.

Something to watch.
Ah just done on 1/2 parcel at .096 this was the original 2nd buy level.
As it was so strong I placed an order at breakout of .096 and it came back to it. Stop is at .094c top up at .099c

Ill shut up now and let you eze take it from here I'll tell my story AFTER yours sorry to butt in.

 

[ezyTrader]

Any sage words regarding CVN languishing in the 10s threshold?
Buy before/on 10cents, hold, or, after? Looks like it may be breaking resistance...only time will tell...
NB: Not in CVN at this stage.

 

[ezyTrader]

I'd appreciate your running commentary, tech/a, actually...

Would appreciate following your 'half-parcel' approach, which of course, the rationale of 'averaging' the risks, right, am I not?

 

[tech/a]

Yes (re averaging risk),Im very edgy until it settles and i have some lea way.

Im all in at .097 average.
Ill place stop at .094 This could well end up one of those we look for.
Nicely sighted ezy.

 

[ezyTrader]

Ah ha! touched 0.10...
Trail stop raised to 0.096 - just below a soft support/resistance line of 0.097.

 

[ezyTrader]

The excruciating waiting time... Leading up to general lunch time....
What's in store for after lunch?

 

[tech/a]

Here is realtime tick chart and current depth.

As you can see 10c was a strong resistance and now becomes strong support
next support if broken and this is weaker is .98.
You can now see where Im coming from buy having traded in the prices to 10c being in incements of .01 and as such closer supprt and less risk to now .05c with wider support and resistance an no firm base yet found (other than 10c).
However my 250,000 units now fall and rise $1250 a tick not $250.
If one of these runs then this is what finding these is all about.
Time will tell. Feast or Famine.

Cheers.

 

[ezyTrader]

That's what I thought too - .098 is a much weaker S/R line. For the time that it is, 1pm Brizzie time, I'll stay with the loose .097 trail stop for the moment, to give it some room to move...

 

[Bobby]

Auz now at .11 , Nice $2500 plus for you Tech so-far today

 

[tech/a]

Yes Bobby nice to see it running well.

Support now 10.5 and resistance at 11c will get an idea how strong this is towards close.
If 10.5 holds at close this will be prime for the EOD traders to jump on in the morning---and a strong overnight close in the US would make it all the more plum.

 

[tech/a]

One of the members Alan asked me to run through the Shark bar I think its similar to Larry Williams Oops bar.As it may play a part in AUZ here is some info.

From experience highest probability is an oops on a positive day or an inside day if a negative DJIA. Continued and sustainable rising is unlikely.(Hope Im wrong!). A slow tight counter trend is also a good sign for longer term holders like the small correction just passed.

 

[ezyTrader]

Gotcha, tech/a. Thanks for that warning.
If I have faith in the stock, I would probably depart the trade with enough free-carry plus profits, for future stakes. What would your opinion be on that?

As I mentioned before, still a novice at this sort of thing.