DH7 Trades the Bond Futures

[darkhorse70]

Went long 2 x @ 10.5 I believe. Scaled out of the first position 1 point up and the other position, 3 points up.

I was challenging myself to hold on with two lots for a little longer as I felt CL was selling off plus equities were going to sell off short term. But I had slight doubt plus the notes looked slightly offered for a moment.

Regardless total profit = $125

 

[darkhorse70]

Been in a long position for a while now.

Averaged in 2 lots. Just sold one lot and hoping oil keeps selling off plus hoping equities keep moving lower. Looking to get out soon.

 

[darkhorse70]

Total profit for that trade = $170

Total profit for todays session = $435

 

[darkhorse70]

Sell off seen in the equity markets yesterday.
The catalyst for this was the sell off in oil which is going to retest the lows seen lately.
The markets are nervous, Government bonds have been rising since last night making yearly highs. Money flowing into safer securities.
Need to wait and see if any buyers will step in to buy the lows.
We have Non Farm Employment Change ADP Tonight.
NFP will be on Friday night. I expect their to be a lot of volatility on those figures. Markets could be taking risk off the table till those figures come out.

 

[darkhorse70]

Looks like oil might be selling off. I missed the ride since I woke up late today. Need to wait for a chance to see if markets will slow down or look for a reversal. 1:30PM BOJ gov speaks so possible volatility.

I have a feeling that markets are positioning themselves for a huge rebound on nfp figures. All about manipulation...

 

[CanOz]

I have a feeling that markets are positioning themselves for a huge rebound on nfp figures. All about manipulation...

So, would that be a bad number, meaning not to raise rates again for a longer period...? Or a good number, with a backdrop of Global sell offs, meaning the jobs scenario is still ok, even though corp profits are sliding off, so economy is hanging on but no rate rise, because of the Global situation...?

Either way i tend to agree as we're pretty over sold now, so there must be a huge amount short that could get caught in the hole...

 

[darkhorse70]

So, would that be a bad number, meaning not to raise rates again for a longer period...? Or a good number, with a backdrop of Global sell offs, meaning the jobs scenario is still ok, even though corp profits are sliding off, so economy is hanging on but no rate rise, because of the Global situation...?

Either way i tend to agree as we're pretty over sold now, so there must be a huge amount short that could get caught in the hole...

Youve got me there Can, not really sure. I guess a figure thats maybe slightly better than expected is ideal but again markets do the complete opposite of what theyre suppose to do and the media always has an excuse for that.

As soon as figures drop, I just look at where markets were in terms of setup and if theyre going strongly bid or offered. If neither Ill wait and take my time to plan an entry. If theyre going aggressively one way ill tend to jump on that direction given it makes sense to me.

 

[darkhorse70]

Went 2 x short an hour ago or so. Timed this with what I thought was the small rally of oil plus the emini with what appeared to be a small sell off in the notes.

Scaled out 1 lot and the other lot slightly below the first lot.

1st lot = +$62.50
2nd lot = +$109

 

[darkhorse70]

Sold 1 x @ 6.5

Bought 1 x @ 5.5

 

[darkhorse70]

Long 2 x @ 0.5

Sold 2 x @ 1.5

Easy trade, so I took it.

 

[Modest]

I feel so naughty averaging into a trade that's against me (I rarely do it) but wondering what your opinion is on this matter.

When do you know to NOT average into a position that you're currently taking on heat?

What do you look for to ADD to a position you're already taking heat on? ...What gives you that conviction to add to it?

Thanks

 

[darkhorse70]

Hey modest, well firstly i could be completely wrong and it might be a bad strategy. Every book and apparent expert says dont average losing trades but the first time I ever heard that averaging losers was ok was buy guy bower from propex. Then I learnt it wasnt such a bad thing atleast in spread trading.

I think its important to challenge the rules which weve been taught all along. Atleast when we are a little passed the green stage and know a little or two about trading.

Most of my trades for now are mean reversion. With that being said and as TH mentioned on your thread, being the early bird isnt always the worst thing. The longer you wait, the market demands a premium for more info and that comes in the form of prices being more expensive.

Now to the point. Depending on my conviction will depend on my trading size. If im confident that the markets should turn around and if my entry is close to where I know my trade is wrong (stop loss level even though I dont really use one in that way) then I might decide to trade with 2 lots.

If im not to sure that the markets have bottomed out, Ill only go in 1 lot and hope to buy another lot at a cheaper price. That way im not missing out on the potential move and I also have the chance to buy cheaper later on.

I never want to load up to my max size straight away because:

a) If my timing is wrong, I need to average down later to allow me to reach B/E and my profit target quicker after being offside

b)It's my most powerful tool to get out of a bad trade, if I can get the timing right.


The only down side to averaging down losers is the potential to do a lot of damage if your wrong about the trade. That doesn't take much, it only takes a strong trending market with possible false reversals.

What makes a good trader?

Its all these little tools that we have at our disposal and knowing how and when to use them.

 

[darkhorse70]

Trading, well atleast to me is all about intuition and knowing what works for you.

Same thing for lot size. After a while, you get the feel for when you should go big, go small, wait, average down slowly or aggressively.



By the way, Im just a noob and im writing as if I know a thing or two. The fact is I dont and I need to start trading live so I can get some credit for what I say. For now, I feel like a quack when I try to give advice. So take my advice with a grain of salt.

 

[Modest]

Thanks mate

 

[darkhorse70]

No worries man.

I screwed up.

My mate owes me 3k so hopefully that + possibly selling some of my assets will fund my account again.

Unfortunately we went to the RSL a few too many times. There was this stunning employee and I was just in a state of trance and my friend was just losing money on the pokies. I kept funding him and he had a full time job so a few small consistent payments would have cleared the debt.

Unfortunately the debt went out of hand over a few too many visits and now hes having trouble paying....

LOLLLL, note - next time dont chat to hot employees haha

 

[Modest]

No worries man.

I screwed up.

My mate owes me 3k so hopefully that + possibly selling some of my assets will fund my account again.

Call in that debt mate you're lucky you're a nice guy and don't charge no interest! :axt:

 

[darkhorse70]

I'm trying.

It's a tricky situation as hes a really close friend and I don't want to compromise our friendship over some small amount of cash. He's been to the psychiatric ward twice and when it comes to a rational person, i'd be less lenient but this guy operates on a slightly skewed ethical view lol.

The reality is I need to get a part time job but I feel like its de constructive to my trading. Ill find a way. Patting down my sim trading is my priority at the moment.

 

[Modest]

Yeah that can be tough but once you're fully committed to trading you're not going to have any friends anyway... Haha

I think a Part Time job would be the real sweet spot getting going. If once I go live I can trade like I do in the sim I will be looking to reduce my hours to part time and start trading an asian market.

 

[darkhorse70]

haha, well friends are over rated in someways haha.

Yeah part time is great. I use to work in a kitchen part time and my aunties sister was the manager. My mum,uncle, 2 x aunties worked there.

I left when I went to go to Aliom. Ill have to formulate a new plan.

A CV would be ideal haha.

 

[darkhorse70]

Slightly disappointing with myself last night. After the ADP figures, the notes felt bid although they were initially going down. I got in on the move, but with the way oil was rallying and the potential for the equities to move up, I sold out. I wasn't prepared to sit behind the comp for a few more hours. When I woke up, notes had made a huge rally before selling off.

My ego is slightly satisfied though...


ADP NFP Results were better than expected out of the US.
Notes still managed to make all new highs before selling off.
Equities sold off prior to making a recovery and closing slightly hgher.
The real mover was oil, making strong gains and pushing higher.
At this point, ill say oil is a really big indicator in terms of risk and volatility.
Equity markets are trying to hold up but are still hesitant and waiting for oil. US Treasuries and other bonds around the world are staying strong for now. Again, NFP figures will be out this week so expect some volatility.