The ASF Futures Playbook - A collection of plays to develop on your own

[captain black]

Closed 2 out at 164.28 and the other 2 contracts at 164.27. Waiting for another setup now.

 

[tech/a]

Yeh like it.
Looks normal at the moment
let us know how you go.
out to tea---not trading.

I see you've closed.

Can you please post or send me a chart of the next 30 min in 2 min Timeframe please---want to have a look.

 

[captain black]

Will post one just before the cash open for equities (6:30 our time). It's too chaotic after then to post much.

 

[captain black]

Ok, here's the 2-minute. The weak bar is at 18:00 (strong signals on the 1-minute as well). I've had a couple of scalps off the 1-minute chart in this mess for a few ticks. Currently short from the red line. If it's a quiet night I'll post another one later.

 

[captain black]

A quick note while the cash open settles down. The weak signal at 18:00 is the controlling bar. 4 attempts (18:02, 18:04, 18:10 and 18:12) were made to push prices higher. All were on weak volume. The push lower at 18:08 with high volume signalled a short bias to me. I like taking trades with tight stops in those consolidation ranges before price breaks out.

Oops gotta go, I'm long and this train has a head of steam

 

[captain black]

I'll also add that one thing you'll notice with my charts is the lack of MA's, MACD's, RSI's etc.

I have some signals on the bars that are part of the statistical analysis I've done that form part of the code (sorry, but I've switched them off before posting, I'm happy to share general ideas but not specific code) but apart from that I'm interested in only what the closing price is doing and what the volume is showing on each bar and in the context of things like controlling bars etc.

Too much stuff on charts tends to confuse the decision making process and with day trading decisions need to be made and acted on in a matter of seconds on some occasions.

Gee the Bund is a breath of fresh air after trading the FESX CanOz. I think I'll owe you a few slabs/bottles of your favourite beverages for pointing it out if it keeps trading like it has been in the last couple of weeks I've watched it

 

[captain black]

Here's another nice setup. High volume reversal bar at 19:36. Entry at 164.49. Exit at 164.61 after weakness on the 19:46 bar. Bread and butter trade.

 

[captain black]

The setups I've posted on the SPI and Bund should be fairly easy to replicate on any decent charting software. Setups like high volume reversal bars, stopping volume, reading volume and control bars in consolidation zones don't require any special coding skills. I've done a lot of analysis that's in my code but it isn't necessary to trade these types of basic setups. I'm glad tech mentioned T/H's comment about spotting your mother in the crowd because these types of setups really stand out after spending a bit of screen time.

The money is made in how these setups are managed. My long term win/loss is 50/50. I'm happy to keep banging away taking these trades and cutting them quickly if they don't go my way because I know that the other 50% of the time they will go my way and if managed properly will give me a positive expectancy.

Keep it simple. It's all in the maths.

 

[captain black]

For a bit of balance, here's a losing trade

Took a short at 164.80 after the high volume down bar at 21:00. Perfect high volume reversal bar on the 1-minute chart. I'll take that trade every time if I can get on board.

Price didn't go my way and pushed past my initial stop at 164.81 and I closed it out at 164.82.

Calling it a night now. Hopefully these setups might help someone with their own trading plan.

 

[jjbinks]

thanks for the posts
what charting software are you using captain

 

[captain black]

thanks for the posts
what charting software are you using captain

I use Amibroker for charting. I've been using Amibroker for trading mechanical systems on the ASX etc. for well over a decade so decided to use it for futures testing/charting as well rather than learn another coding language.

If you're starting out in futures then something like Ninjatrader or Multicharts might be a better choice with integrated DOM and trade reports etc. Apart from the DOM I use my own scripts for reports etc. but it's probably easier to start with a package that has that stuff integrated.

I use Zeroline Trader for the DOM with Interactive Brokers and the Multicharts DOM when I'm trading with AMP.

 

[CanOz]

Jigsaw now has a stand alone version of the thier DOM. It's just into beta now and will eventually incorporate the auction Vista feature. Something for those happy with their charts but not with thier dom....

 

[captain black]

Took a short at 164.80 after the high volume down bar at 21:00. Perfect high volume reversal bar on the 1-minute chart. I'll take that trade every time if I can get on board.

This blow-off top bar at 21:00 set the high for the session on the Bund, these types of bars/setups quite often do.

Holding a trade overnight with a wide stop isn't part of my trading plan but for someone looking to trade that way then the type of setup at 21:00 might be worth investigating further.

 

[captain black]

Jigsaw now has a stand alone version of the thier DOM. It's just into beta now and will eventually incorporate the auction Vista feature. Something for those happy with their charts but not with thier dom....

Cheers for that, will take a look

 

[jjbinks]

do you right your own code to get that VSA type chart on amibroker

 

[captain black]

do you right your own code to get that VSA type chart on amibroker

The original code that I've modified is from Karthik's VPA code which is based on the work done by Richard Wyckoff.

 

[captain black]

Here's Karthik's blog with versions of his VPA code plus a heap of his other Amibroker code:

http://karthikmarar.blogspot.com.au/

Here's his VPA Facebook page with analysis of the Indian market using his VPA code and other code:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Tatechnics/231721820202451?ref=hl

Like most traders I've taken an idea and modified it to suit my trading style. One of the tools I use to manage trades is based on the 3-bar countback line I read in my first trading book by Daryl Guppy.

 

[captain black]

Big moves on the Bund in the last hour so I wont have time to post any setups tonight. The way I trade this type of volatility is different to how I trade normal market moves. The Bund up until an hour ago was a different market to how it's now trading, so I need to trade it in a different way. Tight stops don't work but the range is now wide enough that the trades that go my way are large enough for me to trade with a wider stop.

Recognising changes in trading conditions is probably the toughest thing to get used to with day trading but also one of the most important elements to making expectancy work.

 

[captain black]

For those that have followed Peter2's trading threads you'll notice how he adjusts risk etc. depending on market conditions. With discretionary based day trading we need to do the same thing, just on a more compressed time scale. The market I traded in the last hour needs to be managed in a different way to take advantage of the volatility and manage it in a way to take full advantage of it while still managing downside risk.

 

[CanOz]

Nice balance retest play with a GAP fill twist to play out in the next hours/days....watch 467