David Hunter Market Collapse Prophecy

Few pedictions come to pass and the gurus that do get it right keep on with the same prediction for a long time till it actually happens and then say "I told you so", but their timing is poor.
I suspect the markets will re test the lows again and my own cycle work suggests 2022 for a meaningful low, but my gut says that market conditions might be similar to the 1968 to 82 net sideways period in the US.
This is actually worse than full blown extended crash because that usually finishes quite quickly and it's back to buy & hold bull market business. But if markets are sideways for quite a few years it 1/.Confuses the hell out of most participants and 2/ Buy and hold strategy does not work unless you are willing to hold for a very long time.
In that sort of market timing is the key and it's no wonder that the best early cycle technicians first came on the scene during the late 60s and 70s...

gartley said:

my own cycle work suggests 2022 for a meaningful low,

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That seems in rough agreement actually. Dave Hunter is saying 12-18 months from Sept 2020 peak to major low then lift-off into a central bank fuelled ~6 year bull market in stocks and commodities, industrially not consumer driven.

finicky said:

That seems in rough agreement actually. Dave Hunter is saying 12-18 months from Sept 2020 peak to major low then lift-off into a central bank fuelled ~6 year bull market in stocks and commodities, industrially not consumer driven.

Click to expand...

The following chart has been a great roadmap in terms of cycles and time for me the last 15 years. This one is the 19 year cycle and the other one I use in terms of fixed term cycles is the 4 year cycle. Anything else under that timefame I have found not as good.
The red cycle points are points in time, thus we only use the x axis for this analysis not the y axis so disregard the position of the cycle points in terms of points position. Clearly it can be seen the position of cycle point 13 relative to the green and red horizontal lines has been confirmed and it's at approx the same position plus or minus a some bars that the high 19 years ago ( the last red cycle point 13) in 2011 was made. The next cycle point 14( which is a low) is due in 2022 and the last time that formed was the 2003 low when President Bush sent US troops in the Iraq war.
So taking this chart at face value, the down cycle has not bottomed yet. Even if cycle point comes early like just before the red line, that time has not been reached.

[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian
12h[/URL]
I know many are seeing the recent sell-off in gold & silver as the beginning of a much bigger move down. I disagree. I think both metals are poised for higher with gold headed over $2000 & ultimately $2300 this summer & silver to $21 next on its way to $35.

Ok, so accepted this is one voice among many contradictory voices out there and I am being selective quoting him = confirmation bias. Also he's a 'sell side analyst' with a commercial interest in a buoyant market, but when I spotted this Market Watch article I was struck by how similar his near term outlook is to the seer, the visionary, the prophet, Dave Hunter @DaveHcontrarian twitter. He even uses the term 'melt-up'. Check out the excerpt from his bio: among other accomplishments he's a published and well reviewed 'Fed Watcher'

From the article:
the bull is back and fresh highs are coming soon, says longtime strategist

"He added that, as long as no second wave slams the economy, he sees a V-shaped rebound, at least initially, driving the S&P 500 to record highs over the next couple months. Specifically, he’s looking for the S&P to breach 3,500 sooner rather than later, which is about 300 points higher from here.

“Not too long ago we were in the midst of a terrible meltdown in the stock market. But it turned out to be a 33-day bear market lasting from Feb. 19 to March 23,” Yardeni said. “Ever since then, we’ve had a melt-up that’s all related to the Fed coming in with what I call QE4-ever.”"
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/81C7ED58-A908-11EA-A7A9-74C2BC06B896

From his self published bio:
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global
investment strategy and asset allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank’s US equities division in New York City. He was also the Chief Economist of CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bache Securities, and EF Hutton. He taught at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C.

In 2020, Dr. Ed published Fed Watching for Fun & Profit, which is rated 5.0/5.0 by five reviewers. In this guide, Dr. Ed, one of the world’s most experienced and widely followed “Fed watchers,” helps investors to understand the FOMC’s decision-making process, anticipate its moves, and profit from those insights.

Dr. Ed is one of LinkedIn's 2019 Top Voices in economy & finance.

Weekly S&P500 chart buoyant - getting a bit more optimistic that the timing of @DaveHcontrarian won't be askew and I won't regret delaying through a nail biting month of June to sell a chunk of shares in the new financial year.
Taken just as a chart I can't see anything wrong with this at all for bulls yet, on the contrary.
@DaveHcontrarian allows for possible 200-250 point pullback soon but that will be a short interruption of the bungee shot to over 4,000 possibly 4,500

S&P500 2YR WEEKLY

[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
15h

Replying to[/URL]
@TheBitcoinFreak
Druckenmiller has already admitted he was wrong. You are welcome to sit this bull leg out. Just know that you will have missed what i expect to be the biggest 6 month move in history

InsvestoBoy said:

Imagine being a serious macro strategist with more than 40 years of experience on Wall Street and people put you on some kind of f***ed up pedestal, calling you a prophet.

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I would only be willing to do 5 years on Wall Street , if the offer was made in the next few months and it was financially worth my while.

DaveHcontrarian has refined his target a little for Gold in the 'melt-up' stage and now puts it at $2300 USD. His downside target in the bust to follow now is a likely $1700 USD. Hardly calamitous for Australian Gold or Australian Gold miners since that would put the Australian Gold price at around $2,400 AUD if the pair rate is sustained, but should be more favourable to Australia if the USD becomes last resort for many? Contrary to fundamentals the Oz gold stocks should still be sold down though because of pessimism and liquidity needs, just as happened in March 2020 and in 2008 GFC - my view.

He remains adamant that a melt-up still lies ahead for the S&P500



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
5h
"I think there's a good chance that we just had a successful test of yesterday's sell-off & that we've seen the lows for this sharp, short pullback. If so, it will be onward & upward from here with a melt-up on its way as investors grow more confident with reopening of the economy."

"I'm expecting gold to rally to $2300 & silver $35 this year, then sell-off in the second stage of the bust. I don't think gold goes down to $1000, maybe $1700. Silver maybe $25. In the inflation driven recovery cycle that follows I expect gold to rise to $10,000+ & silver $300+."

@swadeep_c
Replying to
@DaveHcontrarian
"Great call David. I think you’ve been spot on with clear narratives. Saw this chart earlier today and one of the comments was... this could mean SP500 to 4500! Thought of you!"




David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·6h
Replying to
@swadeep_c

"And still a lot more liquidity to come"

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
2h
"You missed the first half of the rally but at least you are onboard for the second half. S&P should be above 4000 within two months. Melt-up just getting started.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
12h
"I think the bond market had its rally. With the economy in recovery mode & the stock market headed for a parabolic melt-up,we likely see rates rise here & bonds sell off. I think the 10yr yield heads back up to 1.40%-1.50% & the 30yr back toward 2%. After this correction 10yr to 0%.

"I don't expect further stalling. I expect the metals to trade up with the stock market this summer."

The Fed unlimited + retail 'investors'. Stocks being overvalued doesn't matter ..

I agree, fed reserves going through QE with digital currency seem to be avoiding inflation in cpi.

Japan's central bank over the past 10yrs has been buying up its bonds. To the tune of 7 trillion last I checked. (1-2)yrs ago Still no real inflation.

Fed reserve for US is churning out cash.

Where is the inflation hiding?
Financial instruments

Lead3r said:

I agree, fed reserves going through QE with digital currency seem to be avoiding inflation in cpi.

Japan's central bank over the past 10yrs has been buying up its bonds. To the tune of 7 trillion last I checked. (1-2)yrs ago Still no real inflation.

Fed reserve for US is churning out cash.

Where is the inflation hiding?
Financial instruments

Click to expand...

Inflation will come. It will be stagflation.
We really want to concentrate on getting debt down while we can.

Knobby22 said:

Inflation will come. It will be stagflation.
We really want to concentrate on getting debt down while we can.

Click to expand...

Bad start for governments all over the world this year....

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·12m
This small correction has done its job. Sentiment has turned very negative & once again we have a big wall of worry to climb. Market should emerge from its correction this week & head for my summer target of S&P 4200-4500. Tech leadership will resume as well. Miners look good too

[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
12h[/URL]
Gotta love the metals & miners here. They are coming alive & are poised for their best runs in a decade. Gold to $2300, silver to $35, GDX to $55, GDXJ to $100, SIL to $75, SILJ to $30. Should be quite a ride.

Out today!

This webinar segment apparently went to air March 16 2020 with say a week to go before the U.S market pivots into a V reversal. We know that now, but listen to the casual confidence with which @DaveHcontrarian says from 4m27s that he believes that this March crash is not the final bust and the C.Bs will step in, end the crash and direct the market into a final bull leg. In the midst of that mayhem, cool as a cucumber and right.

I thought this series of response tweets from @DaveHcontrarian was interesting because they bear on the inflationary recovery cycle that he predicts post the 2021 bust.

The drivers of this recovery are predicted to be a commodities inflation and an industrial surge deriving from massive money creation. But why those - why commodities and industry? Why not consumerism and financial and land assets inflation? I don't really get it but the twitter exchange includes a number of reasons, including notably to me "the commodity cycle".

Also below I've put a Commodities Index vs S&P500 long term chart that is a bit outdated (May 2019) but reminds us of the secular low of this ratio.

Also, fwiw, take this opportunity to say that I have already begun my sell down to 30% cash and am halfway to my goal. I will largely miss out on the 2 months 'melt-up' ahead but it's a relaxed feeling cashing up here in July. I have so far sold down: IRI, DTL, CDA, ADH, TRS - all stocks that I would have normally kept if not for the dire situation that I believe lies ahead. Soon I will pare back even my gold stocks. I infrequently sell stocks. Obviously not advice, I'm just following someone else's views and putting my bets on the table.

The twitter exchange:


[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
Jul 4[/URL]
We are headed for the first deflationary downturn in over 80 years & the worst downturn (bust) since the Great Depression so the CBs won't prevent it. However, their massive monetary response will eventually lead to a big industrial-driven recovery 2022-2028/29.



[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/XuXuelian']Xuelian Xu
@XuXuelia·[/URL]
Jul 5

Thanks Dave ! In the industrial driven recovery period, what will be the best investment? Technology and or precious metals ?


[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
July 5[/URL]
New cycles bring new leadership.This cycle has been all about social media & other technology, healthcare, consumer,both staples & discretionary, and utilities. Next cycle will be led by commodities including energy, industrials & precious metals. Indexes will lag.Bonds will lag.



[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/jybacle']jean yves bacle
@jybacle
July 5[/URL]
This commodity based reflation will be driven and compounded by the IOT & 5G digitation , robotics + AI + 4th industrial revolution phase of the New Industrial Age morphing into a newly built 21st century hyper productive and efficient infrastructure



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

Replying to
@jybacle
@XuXuelian
and 2 others

No doubt that will be part of the story as well as capacity coming back from China, fiscal appropriations for infrastructure upgrade, military build-up, commodity cycle & massive monetary expansion.