CSL - CSL Limited

[Dona Ferentes]

earnings up, dividend up, a few questions over Vifor. In a slowing economy, some investors will gain succour the pathway is discernable and some will fret that future growth could be clipped.

CSL said that on the same basis, 2023-24 underlying profit was up by 15% to US$3.01 billion. And looking to the coming year, the company said it expects underlying profit of between US$3.2 billion and US$3.3 billion at constant currency in 2024-25, which would be a rise of between 10% and 13%. That will be on slower revenue growth, with CSL estimating it will grow by “approximately 5-7% over FY24 at constant currency”. And that appears to be what investors didn’t like.

CSL has been saying for a while now that it expects annualised double-digit earnings growth over the medium term.

 

[qldfrog]

earnings up, dividend up, a few questions over Vifor. In a slowing economy, some investors will gain succour the pathway is discernable and some will fret that future growth could be clipped.

CSL said that on the same basis, 2023-24 underlying profit was up by 15% to US$3.01 billion. And looking to the coming year, the company said it expects underlying profit of between US$3.2 billion and US$3.3 billion at constant currency in 2024-25, which would be a rise of between 10% and 13%. That will be on slower revenue growth, with CSL estimating it will grow by “approximately 5-7% over FY24 at constant currency”. And that appears to be what investors didn’t like.

CSL has been saying for a while now that it expects annualised double-digit earnings growth over the medium term.

Easier with double digit inflation as well so quite doable imho

 

[Value Collector]

Easier with double digit inflation as well so quite doable imho

Yet, you think Term deposits are a good idea

 

[Knobby22]

Didn't drop for long, now over $303.
Personally, as a long term shareholder since the float I know they under promise.
When they give advance estimates, I assume its based on worst case.

 

[Bellcose]

Didn't drop for long, now over $303.
Personally, as a long term shareholder since the float I know they under promise.
When they give advance estimates, I assume its based on worst case.

As with most in this sector, many investors focus on the immediate. Do you know what CSL's R&D spend is by any chance?

 

[qldfrog]

We had a debate about csl PE
And lack of return via dividends in my view
If we agree that we can get a td at 5 %
And sp is 303 aud today.easy number
Div is the past but let's suppose it carries on
Dividend being 1.5%
In the next 12 month csl would underscore by 3.5% or roughly $10$ per share
I put a calendar reminder
If csl is above 313 post dividends in a year, csl beat a td, otherwise you should have sold today , put your money in a td and then buy again in 12 months if you want to
Note that a td at 5% with current inflation is pathetic but let's do a simple test.
Calendar entry done

 

[Dona Ferentes]

As with most in this sector, many investors focus on the immediate. Do you know what CSL's R&D spend is by any chance?

dear Dorothy Dix ?!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

As with most in this sector, many investors focus on the immediate. Do you know what CSL's R&D spend is by any chance?

$1.4 billion. 2500+ employees in 10 locations.

CSL’s R&D pipeline
CSL’s strong R&D pipeline includes potential new treatments that use these platforms in alignment with its leading-edge scientific expertise and commercial capabilities across CSL’s six therapeutic areas: immunology; haematology; cardiovascular and metabolic; respiratory; nephrology and transplant; and vaccines.

In 2023/24 CSL invested US$1.4 billion in R&D for its three businesses. Looking towards 2030, R&D continues to strive to deliver on the current portfolio of prospective medicines and vaccines and build a comprehensive and innovative pipeline with the potential to meaningfully impact the lives of patients and to public health.

 

[dyna]

Term deposits are a good idea

They're brilliant if your marginal tax rate ain't like mine .
( 47 % ) So , lose half of the interest rate to Treasury plus inflation gone with the wind at end of the term .

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I didn't know CSL was into term deposits. I must investigate further. this site has such a wealth of contextual information

 

[qldfrog]

They're brilliant if your marginal tax rate ain't like mine .
( 47 % ) So , lose half of the interest rate to Treasury plus inflation gone with the wind at end of the term .

sure but still better than net capital loss

 

[qldfrog]

I didn't know CSL was into term deposits. I must investigate further. this site has such a wealth of contextual information

I will make sure I will tag you in 12 months, whatever the results.
If by any luck I lose my calendar and miss the deadline, remind me

 

[Value Collector]

I didn't know CSL was into term deposits. I must investigate further. this site has such a wealth of contextual information

I think they have about $1.5 Billion that’s probably sitting in short term interest bearing deposits.

 

[Bellcose]

$1.4 billion.

Thanks. May seem a lot but a portion of that will be burnt on research which will likely not even make it to clinical trial stage. Not unusual.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CSL has recovered most of the drop seen on 13 August when results came out. Now $307.50

the last 3-4 months has seen the shares rally ahead of the index (of which it is a not insignificant contributor)
.

 

[Knobby22]

CSL has recovered most of the drop seen on 13 August when results came out. Now $307.50

the last 3-4 months has seen the shares rally ahead of the index (of which it is a not insignificant contributor)
.
View attachment 182792

$309.75 as I speak.
I read an article recently about overly reactive investors doing more poorly than your typical investor. This CSL thread and that short share market dip are a great example of where this is true. The computerised traders are too fast.

 

[Iggy_Pop]

One of my picks for the CY24 tipping comp. No movement this month but up 8% for the year.

Iggy

 

[Dona Ferentes]

one view .. James Gruber

CSL: a big boat proving harder to move​

After IPO’ing at $2.40 in 1994, CSL (ASX: CSL) has been a wonderful Australian success story. It’s one of the few Australian companies that’s become a global leader in its field. And shareholders have benefited mightily, with the stock price up a cool 126x over the past 30 years (excluding dividends)*.

Source: Morningstar

With a market capitalization of $148 billion, though, size is becoming more of an issue. Growth is proving more difficult to come by, and acquisitions harder to find. This is best illustrated by the following chart.

The chart shows that returns of capital have plummeted since 2015. In that year, CSL acquired the flu vaccine business of Novartis. Despite the success of this business, returns have declined. That trend has accelerated following the 2022 purchase of Vifor.

This doesn’t rule out that returns may improve from here, but I’d suggest that the glory days of CSL are behind it, and tougher times may lay ahead.

(* actually higher than that, given a share split )

 

[qldfrog]

one view .. James Gruber

CSL: a big boat proving harder to move​

After IPO’ing at $2.40 in 1994, CSL (ASX: CSL) has been a wonderful Australian success story. It’s one of the few Australian companies that’s become a global leader in its field. And shareholders have benefited mightily, with the stock price up a cool 126x over the past 30 years (excluding dividends)*.

View attachment 184124
Source: Morningstar

With a market capitalization of $148 billion, though, size is becoming more of an issue. Growth is proving more difficult to come by, and acquisitions harder to find. This is best illustrated by the following chart.

View attachment 184125

The chart shows that returns of capital have plummeted since 2015. In that year, CSL acquired the flu vaccine business of Novartis. Despite the success of this business, returns have declined. That trend has accelerated following the 2022 purchase of Vifor.

This doesn’t rule out that returns may improve from here, but I’d suggest that the glory days of CSL are behind it, and tougher times may lay ahead.

(* actually higher than that, given a share split )

It is not good for shareholders but good for the company, not a bad thing to be too big to grow much more/faster

 

[UMike]

Maybe they should accept this and be a higher dividend stock!!!!