CSL - CSL Limited

[finicky]

• CSL Raised to Buy at Citi; PT A$335

 

[UMike]

Hmm Wonder if I should raise my target price??????

Too often is gets close only to then retrace.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Hmm Wonder if I should raise my target price??????
Too often is gets close only to then retrace.

pulling ahead of ASX200 in the last month, and closing on $300 a share (again)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

pulling ahead of ASX200 in the last month, and closing on $300 a share (again)

and the 3-handle is back

 

[Iggy_Pop]

One of my picks for the yearly tipping comp. After seven months up even after todays correction. Waiting for some positive news to push the share along

Iggy

 

[Dona Ferentes]

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Revenue $14.8 billion, up 11% at CC
• NPAT $2.64 billion, up 20%
- NPAT $2.75 billion at CC, up 25%
• NPATA $2.91 billion, up 11%
• NPATA $3.01 billion, at CC, up 15%
• NPATA earnings per share $6.02, up 11%
• Final dividend of US$1.45 per share
- Total full year dividend US$2.64, up 12%
- Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$4.00 per share, up 10%
• NPATA for FY25 anticipated to be in the range of approximately $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion at CC, up approximately 10-13%.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

FY2025 Outlook

CSL Behring
• Underlying patient demand for Ig in core indications remains strong
• Positive reimbursement decisions support HEMGENIX® growth
• Preparing for Garadacimab regulatory outcome and launch
• Complete roll-out Rika and I-Nomogram
• Horizon 1 and 2 yield initiatives ongoing
• Improving gross margin

CSL Seqirus
• Continued market outperformance from differentiated portfolio
• sa-mRNA COVID vaccine development
• Commercialisation of KOSTAIVE® in Japan
• Preparation for EU and US submissions
• H5N8 avian influenza preparedness

CSL Vifor
• Well positioned for iron competition
• Maintain nephrology launch momentum
• Collaboration activities across CSL commercial and operations
• Continue to advance Patient Blood Management with CSL Behring

 

[Knobby22]

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Revenue $14.8 billion, up 11% at CC
• NPAT $2.64 billion, up 20%
- NPAT $2.75 billion at CC, up 25%
• NPATA $2.91 billion, up 11%
• NPATA $3.01 billion, at CC, up 15%
• NPATA earnings per share $6.02, up 11%
• Final dividend of US$1.45 per share
- Total full year dividend US$2.64, up 12%
- Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$4.00 per share, up 10%
• NPATA for FY25 anticipated to be in the range of approximately $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion at CC, up approximately 10-13%.

I am pleased with this. Keen to delve into the detail when I get a chance.
Dividend in $A will be about $2.20.

 

[bigdog]

This morning, the ASX healthcare share reported its latest earnings, covering the full 2024 financial year. As we went through at the time, most of CSL's metrics were impressive. These included an 11% hike in full-year revenues to US$14.8 billion, as well as an 11% bump in net profits to US$2.91 billion.

The company also revealed its highest-ever final dividend.

But it seems that CSL's guidance for FY2025 is what has spooked investors. The ASX healthcare share told shareholders to expect 10-13% growth in net profits next year, which is below what some analysts were expecting.

So, it seems that CSL stock is responsible for the woes of many ASX healthcare shares today and, by extension, the muted performance of the entire market. At least compared to what it could have been without its third-largest constituent.



Today finished at:

 

[JohnDe]

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Revenue $14.8 billion, up 11% at CC
• NPAT $2.64 billion, up 20%
- NPAT $2.75 billion at CC, up 25%
• NPATA $2.91 billion, up 11%
• NPATA $3.01 billion, at CC, up 15%
• NPATA earnings per share $6.02, up 11%
• Final dividend of US$1.45 per share
- Total full year dividend US$2.64, up 12%
- Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$4.00 per share, up 10%
• NPATA for FY25 anticipated to be in the range of approximately $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion at CC, up approximately 10-13%.

CSL is on track for its worst day since February after its FY25 guidance fell short of analyst expectations.

 

[qldfrog]

Looking just at numbers: forget name, history, efc
Div at $4 or below 1.5% vs share price, when TD return 5%
A mature company, not digital so not likely to do stellar growth.
And was at ath a few weeks ago and now down....
Yes it is/was a bubble

 

[Dona Ferentes]

a view
.

CSL FY24 Earnings Call Highlights

CSL shares have dipped lower after its FY25 guidance missed market expectations. Here's what management have to say.

www.marketindex.com.au

.
The FY24 numbers were largely in-line with analyst expectations. However, FY25 guidance fell short of $3.38 billion consensus or a 3.8% miss at the midpoint.

....​

...
..
.

Analyst Q&A Highlights​

Lyanne Harrison from Bank of America said CSL is forecasting 5-7% revenue growth but what about Vifor: "We're being very realistic on our overall revenue. The Behring is back, will be high single digits. We expect Seqirus to be above market, but probably in the flattish area given the dynamic of the marketplace itself. And Vifor to your question will be flattish."
Follow-up question re Vifor gross margins: "So we've done a lot of work on the cost side of Vifor, and you can clearly see that in the numbers. There is more to do. Some of it Vifor, some of it is more broadly across the enterprise as we continue to drive cost efficiency and it's a big focus for us. So yes, there's probably some more to come."
Gretel Janu at Evans & Partners on RIKA rollout and lower collection times: "We received FDA clearance to RIKA for the individualized nomogram, but there's a second part of the validation of that when you put it into beneficial use in the centers. So, we've received it, and we're now working through the validation process across all the centers."
Andrew Goodsall of MST Marquee asked about plasma collection trends: "The cost overall CPL at the second half of the year kind of stabilized, but we've derisked significant opportunities, the RIKA rollout, the I-Nomogram. So we see a continued decrease in the CPL while we continue to bring in the appropriate donors as needed for our demand."
Follow up question re avian flu opportunity set: "Some of those countries, for example, the UK and the US have taken steps to explore with us and other manufacturers the potential to supply vaccine in this period now where the risk of human-to-human transmission is causing some concern. Those processes still have some way to play out. And so we're engaged in those discussions. And when we have more to report, we will do so."
David Low at JPMorgan asked about albumin sales in China and growth for the region: "Albumin has done very well. It grew 12% year-on-year, which was a great result. And that growth was across all markets, U.S., EU, and China. In China, we continue to see high single-digit growth, which is great. The demand is very strong, and we believe it will continue over the midterm."

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Looking just at numbers: forget name, history, etc
Div at $4

bought at $30. three way split so cost base = $10.... then a $4 dividend (and up 10 per cent) is a 40 per cent yield on my invested cash.

...if I sell, can you suggest something else with similar return?

 

[qldfrog]

bought at $30. three way split so cost base = $10.... then a $4 dividend (up 10 per cent) is a 40 per cent yield on my invested cash.

...if I sell, can you suggest something else with similar return?

wrong thinking:
we are 13/08/2024: not walloping in the past
if you sell today and invest in your run of the mill TD, it will bring you 5% or 3 times what you get with CSL:

using your very analogy, 120% yield on your invested cash of eons ago
so yes selling and taking a TD will beat your CSL return by a factor of 3 with negligible risk.....
Once again we are august 24 not decades ago

 

[Value Collector]

Looking just at numbers: forget name, history, efc
Div at $4 or below 1.5% vs share price, when TD return 5%
A mature company, not digital so not likely to do stellar growth.
And was at ath a few weeks ago and now down....
Yes it is/was a bubble

Come of @qldfrog, you should know better than that, but let me run you through some basics.

1, The interest earned on a term deposit represents 100% of that term deposits earnings.
How ever the CSL dividend is only 25% of CSL’s earnings they other 75% will be used to grow the company and buy back shares, increasing you holdings.

2, The term deposit interest comes with no tax credits, where as the CSL dividends come with a little bit of franking credits.

3, 100% of the capital in a term deposit is subject to inflation, where as many of the assets owned by CSL will provide natural inflation hedges over time.

If you are just comparing dividends to bank interest you are going to be pretty wrong about the future returns, for example some companies pay no dividends, but provide huge total share holder returns.

 

[Value Collector]

wrong thinking:
we are 13/08/2024: not walloping in the past
if you sell today and invest in your run of the mill TD, it will bring you 5% or 3 times what you get with CSL:

using your very analogy, 120% yield on your invested cash of eons ago
so yes selling and taking a TD will beat your CSL return by a factor of 3 with negligible risk.....
Once again we are august 24 not decades ago

When he bought at $30, the Term Deposit would have been still earning more, but it would have been silly to choose the Term deposit.

So given what you are saying, you are saying he should have chosen a term deposit instead of buying the CSL shares… That is “wrong thinking”

You need to factor in retained earnings, if a company is only paying out part of its earnings, and reinvesting the rest at 25% return on capital, simply comparing the dividends to interest is stupid.

 

[mullokintyre]

When he bought at $30, the Term Deposit would have been still earning more, but it would have been silly to choose the Term deposit.

So given what you are saying, you are saying he should have chosen a term deposit instead of buying the CSL shares… That is “wrong thinking”

You need to factor in retained earnings, if a company is only paying out part of its earnings, and reinvesting the rest at 25% return on capital, simply comparing the dividends to interest is stupid.

Its a risk /reward thing.
There is a small risk that the institute holding your term deposit goes bust and you lose your principal, but then it may be covered by a deposit protection scheme if it is one of the big banks.
Your share price on the other hand, may go significantly higher, or it may go down, or as has happened to a few companies in the past, it may go broke altogether and you get nothing back.
There are no guarantees, just risk management.
Whats an acceptable risk for person A, may not be such for person B.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

Its a risk /reward thing.
There is a small risk that the institute holding your term deposit goes bust and you lose your principal, but then it may be covered by a deposit protection scheme if it is one of the big banks.
Your share price on the other hand, may go significantly higher, or it may go down, or as has happened to a few companies in the past, it may go broke altogether and you get nothing back.
There are no guarantees, just risk management.
Whats an acceptable risk for person A, may not be such for person B.
Mick

True, but here I try to have people understand that past is not always reflection of future, that the PE on csl is not able to be justified in term of growth due to the fact csl is actually moving things, not a digital company where you can double sold items at near zero cost.
The same people will argue that they made a great decision sticking to fmg at $30 whereas they could have sold then and buy back why not at 18ish yesterday..
But they are right because it was worth a few dollars only 5y ago..i know....
Or why sell and pay CGT...true, a bit more wait and your cgt could half again.... wonderful
To each his her own..some got market lucky and talk a lot, most lost big and disappear from talks
Csl is a good company, i truly believe it but not today at this price

 

[Value Collector]

Its a risk /reward thing.
There is a small risk that the institute holding your term deposit goes bust and you lose your principal, but then it may be covered by a deposit protection scheme if it is one of the big banks.
Your share price on the other hand, may go significantly higher, or it may go down, or as has happened to a few companies in the past, it may go broke altogether and you get nothing back.
There are no guarantees, just risk management.
Whats an acceptable risk for person A, may not be such for person B.
Mick

Yeah, but your Term deposit is also guaranteed to lose purchasing power over time, due to inflation, but thanks for

But yeah, that’s the whole job of an investor is to weigh up all the relevant facts, make a risk vs reward judgement and deploy capital, simply looong at dividend vs TD interest as oldfrog did is highly flawed.

 

[Value Collector]

True, but here I try to have people understand that past is not always reflection of future, that the PE on csl is not able to be justified in term of growth due to the fact csl is actually moving things, not a digital company where you can double sold items at near zero cost.

CSL grew their profits by 25% last year, what PE would you expect a company with such large growth to be on?

In Regards to FMG, if you knew FMG was going from $30 to $18 why didn’t you sell it short? Because you didn’t really know, and you are only good at looking at the past. The fact is you didn’t buy it at $18 and sell at $30 and you didn’t short at $30 and buy at $18, you are all talk, please step aside and let the real players continue making real money while you play with yourself.

Ps I don’t own CSL, but have made a lot of cash selling out options on it, and currently hold a short put $280