CSL - CSL Limited

[Dona Ferentes]

CSL has won a multi-million dollar contract from the US Department of Health and Human Services to increase America’s stockpile of bird flu vaccines.

CSL stated that the contract is worth US$121.4 million (AU$178 million) and will expand the reserve for this vaccine to 40 million doses.

Under the multi-year contract, CSL will deliver its MF59 adjuvant, an ingredient that can be used to manufacture vaccines against the H5 avian influenza virus.

"This decision will further support the US government's pandemic preparedness efforts," CSL said.

The funding is part of a partnership with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). As a part of HHS, BARDA helps companies develop medical supplies to address public health threats.

This is the fifth award CSL has received from BARDA in response to the bird flu outbreak. Under its previous contract, CSL delivered about 4.8 million doses of the vaccine.

 

[Iggy_Pop]

One of my tips for the CY tipping comp. Been a steady year for the share price. Hoping for a boost leding into
Christmas.

Iggy

 

[Value Hunter]

CSL is one of the perennially overvalued growth stocks on the ASX. In Australia because genuine mid and large cap growth stocks are so few they tend to sell at astronomical p.e. ratios often more than double the p.e. ratios of comparable companies in the U.S.A. or other markets.

 

[Sean K]

CSL has been on pause for 4 years now. Would have been very nice to have bought in the 2010s, but been treading water since 2020.

Is the growth story all over, or can it go into hypergrowth again?

Interesting long term flag on the chart.

 

[UMike]

WOW... Just looked back and I have had it for 3 years.

Lucky I bought low and sold (some) highish. Always wanted to totally sell it all but never got to my desired price.
..... Maybe this time.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning,

CSL is holding its 2024 Research & Development Investor Briefing today commencing at 9.00am Australian Eastern Daylight Time. The PDF document is to big to upload but is an announcement today (22/10/24).

It has been reported that analysts at Bell Potter declared the stock ‘looks undervalued’. Yesterday (21/10/24), Bell Potter analyst Thomas Wakim initiated coverage with a buy recommendation and a price target of $345. “The price target is a 15 per cent premium to the current share price and combined with the expected dividend yield of 1.5 per cent, results in a total expected return of 16 per cent,” Mr Wakim said in his note.


“In our view the stock looks undervalued on a PE ratio 18 per cent/8 per cent below 5yr/10yr historical averages and is set for double-digit earnings growth driven by the core Behring division. Short-term catalysts include the R&D investor update on 22 October and potential garadacimab HAE approval in the current quarter.”

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CSL is holding its 2024 Research & Development Investor Briefing today commencing at 9.00am Australian Eastern Daylight Time. The PDF document is to big to upload but is an announcement today (22/10/24).

and how was it received ?

CSL has pulled studies or trials on three therapies and says US regulators have raised manufacturing concerns about a key new treatment in rare late-stage setbacks..

CSL told investors on Tuesday that the Food and Drug Administration had raised concerns about the manufacturing of its highly anticipated Garadacimab antibody used to treat hereditary angioedema, a type of severe swelling – but still hoped to release the product in the first half of next year.

The company also said it would discontinue studies or trials into the use of three other products – an anticoagulant called Kcentra for the treatment of trauma, a muscle inflammation treatment called Hizentra and a treatment targeting kidney transplant recipients, Clazakizumab.

“That’s the nature of R&D. I think we sometimes at CSL have gotten a little complacent thinking that wouldn’t happen to us. When you take risks, and you’re going to make a meaningful difference, this is what happens,” CSL’s head of research and development Bill Mezzanotte said.

 

[Iggy_Pop]

One of my picks for the CY 2024 stock tipping comp. Marginally up for the calendar year but hoping for a boost with the R and D investor breifing this week as mentioned by rcw1. Hoping for a a rise in share price til the end of the year

Iggy

 

[JohnDe]

Do your own research.

it might be time to buy.

There are now a large number of Australian stocks with a direct exposure to the US election result including CSL, ResMed, Cochlear, Austal, Reece, QBE Insurance, Ansell, Aristocrat, Worley, Treasury Wine Estates, Flight Centre, Computershare and James Hardie.​

​

Macquarie analysts say a Trump Presidency would be more positive for those trading in the US because of Trump’s promises to cut the corporate tax rate from the current 21 per cent to 15 to 20 per cent.​

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-likely-winners-and-losers-from-a-revolutionary-us-election/news-story/4c93876530ecc09141f8704726ae94a4

 

[Knobby22]

Do your own research.

it might be time to buy.

There are now a large number of Australian stocks with a direct exposure to the US election result including CSL, ResMed, Cochlear, Austal, Reece, QBE Insurance, Ansell, Aristocrat, Worley, Treasury Wine Estates, Flight Centre, Computershare and James Hardie.​

​

Macquarie analysts say a Trump Presidency would be more positive for those trading in the US because of Trump’s promises to cut the corporate tax rate from the current 21 per cent to 15 to 20 per cent.​

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-likely-winners-and-losers-from-a-revolutionary-us-election/news-story/4c93876530ecc09141f8704726ae94a4

No, its the Australian Newspaper, biased, always pushing a line and sloppy.

Never good for Aussie companies when these things happen.
CSL is an Australian company and though they manufacture in the USA a lot of elements come from other parts of the world.
Also as a foreign company there will probably be special taxes.

DJ U.S. Tariffs Could Force Moves by Australian Med-Techs -- Market Talk	CSL $285.80 $2.41 (0.9%) $285.75$285.83
07 Nov 2024 14:53:15
22 Views 0 comments
0353 GMT - Australia-listed drug and device makers may have to consider moving production due to potential tariffs by the incoming Trump administration, UBS analysts write in a note. They say that the likes of vaccine giant CSL, hearing-implant maker Cochlear, breath-tech provider ResMed and radiopharmaceutical developer Telix may have to consider the origin of various inputs and the location of production. Tariffs could motivate relocation of facilities to the U.S. but result in lower profitability for companies, they say. Protective-garment maker Ansell could benefit from tariffs on Chinese gloves, they add. (stuart.condie@wsj.com) (END) Dow Jones Newswires November 06, 2024 22:53 ET (03:53 GMT)

 

[qldfrog]

No, its the Australian Newspaper, biased, always pushing a line and sloppy.

Never good for Aussie companies when these things happen.
CSL is an Australian company and though they manufacture in the USA a lot of elements come from other parts of the world.
Also as a foreign company there will probably be special taxes.

DJ U.S. Tariffs Could Force Moves by Australian Med-Techs -- Market Talk	CSL $285.80 $2.41 (0.9%) $285.75$285.83
07 Nov 2024 14:53:15
22 Views View attachment 187566 0 comments
0353 GMT - Australia-listed drug and device makers may have to consider moving production due to potential tariffs by the incoming Trump administration, UBS analysts write in a note. They say that the likes of vaccine giant CSL, hearing-implant maker Cochlear, breath-tech provider ResMed and radiopharmaceutical developer Telix may have to consider the origin of various inputs and the location of production. Tariffs could motivate relocation of facilities to the U.S. but result in lower profitability for companies, they say. Protective-garment maker Ansell could benefit from tariffs on Chinese gloves, they add. (stuart.condie@wsj.com) (END) Dow Jones Newswires November 06, 2024 22:53 ET (03:53 GMT)

Plus Trump is not the guy to be keen on bloodsuckers...bleeding poor neighbourhoods for a sandwich and make mega profits to share among woke 0.01% is only appealing to Fauci and Democrats .
Oops..not PC,?
Ps i have owned CSL too...

 

[Value Collector]

CSL is one of the perennially overvalued growth stocks on the ASX. In Australia because genuine mid and large cap growth stocks are so few they tend to sell at astronomical p.e. ratios often more than double the p.e. ratios of comparable companies in the U.S.A. or other markets.

An interesting test of that theory would be to go back to a year (say 5 years ago), where it’s pe at the time would have made you think it was over valued. Then look at the actual growth that occurred between then and now and see whether it actually was over valued or whether the price was actually good value based on the growth that occurred.

Genuine growth companies are not over valued just because the PE is high based on its current earnings, just like a low PE doesn’t mean a dying company is good value.

A companies growth possibility is part of its value.

 

[Value Hunter]

An interesting test of that theory would be to go back to a year (say 5 years ago), where it’s pe at the time would have made you think it was over valued. Then look at the actual growth that occurred between then and now and see whether it actually was over valued or whether the price was actually good value based on the growth that occurred.

Genuine growth companies are not over valued just because the PE is high based on its current earnings, just like a low PE doesn’t mean a dying company is good value.

A companies growth possibility is part of its value.

$5.47 USD was the EPS for CSL in FY2024. in FY 2014 CSL generated EPS of $2.70 USD. It slightly more than doubled its EPS in 10 years. That is a EPS CAGR of around 7.5% per annum.

A respectable growth rate to be sure but its not the type of growth rate that can justify such a high p.e. ratio. CSL is currently trading on a trailing p.e. ratio of around 35. A 7.5% growth rate doesn't justify that. I do not follow the company closely so maybe the next 10 years will generate more growth than the last 10 years so who knows. But just on the surface level it just does not seem attractive. I would say the valuation is to do with the fact that in Australia we have huge money flows due to compulsory superannuation etc but we have a limited pool of large cap growth companies and hence why the large cap growth stocks in Australia tend to trade at a premium to their international peers. Large cap growth stocks in Australia typically trade on higher multiples than large growth companies in the USA or Europe.

By the way CSL's share price has hardly moved in the last 5 years. 5 years ago it was around $261 today its around $285. It will likely be another 3 to 5 years of share price stagnation from now until the earnings finally catch up with the valuation. And yes to answer your question 5 years ago it was even more overvalued than today hence why the share price barely moved in 5 years.

 

[Value Collector]

$5.47 USD was the EPS for CSL in FY2024. in FY 2014 CSL generated EPS of $2.70 USD. It slightly more than doubled its EPS in 10 years. That is a EPS CAGR of around 7.5% per annum.

A respectable growth rate to be sure but its not the type of growth rate that can justify such a high p.e. ratio. CSL is currently trading on a trailing p.e. ratio of around 35. A 7.5% growth rate doesn't justify that. I do not follow the company closely so maybe the next 10 years will generate more growth than the last 10 years so who knows. But just on the surface level it just does not seem attractive. I would say the valuation is to do with the fact that in Australia we have huge money flows due to compulsory superannuation etc but we have a limited pool of large cap growth companies and hence why the large cap growth stocks in Australia tend to trade at a premium to their international peers. Large cap growth stocks in Australia typically trade on higher multiples than large growth companies in the USA or Europe.

By the way CSL's share price has hardly moved in the last 5 years. 5 years ago it was around $261 today its around $285. It will likely be another 3 to 5 years of share price stagnation from now until the earnings finally catch up with the valuation. And yes to answer your question 5 years ago it was even more overvalued than today hence why the share price barely moved in 5 years.

It also is the type of company that many believe to be “recession proof”, some people would be willing to pay a much higher than normal PE for a company that does have decent growth, while also being “recession proof”.

I don’t follow it closely either, these are just random thoughts.

 

[Value Hunter]

It also is the type of company that many believe to be “recession proof”, some people would be willing to pay a much higher than normal PE for a company that does have decent growth, while also being “recession proof”.

I don’t follow it closely either, these are just random thoughts.

While its not overly affected by a recession it still has various factors that cause it to have some level of earnings volatility (competition, regulation, product cycles, government health sector expenditure levels, etc). If you look at its history it does have occasional years when earnings decline.

But yes in general I would agree with your point in general that it has a higher level of earnings consistency/predictability/stability than most companies and many are willing to pay a premium for that.

 

[JohnDe]

My financial advisor has notched up my confidence. We officially started our SMSF 3 weeks ago, my wife's and my compulsory super was cashed in and transferred to our new super. The advisor is wary of the market and we're just dipping our toes with small buys, keeping our powder dry.

I have the final say on the suggested buy.

Last week I mentioned CSL as an alternative. I was advised against it, for now, due to certain circumstances, it still has a way to go down before being ready to buy.

look at the price today.

 

[Rabbithop]

My financial advisor has notched up my confidence. We officially started our SMSF 3 weeks ago, my wife's and my compulsory super was cashed in and transferred to our new super. The advisor is wary of the market and we're just dipping our toes with small buys, keeping our powder dry.

I have the final say on the suggested buy.

Last week I mentioned CSL as an alternative. I was advised against it, for now, due to certain circumstances, it still has a way to go down before being ready to buy.

look at the price today.

View attachment 188013

Ouch! not a holder but on the side line.

 

[JohnDe]

Ouch! not a holder but on the side line.

Same. I sold my CSL near the peak a few months ago, with the aim of buying near the low.

Is today the low? I'm waiting a bit longer.

 

[Knobby22]

Same. I sold my CSL near the peak a few months ago, with the aim of buying near the low.

Is today the low? I'm waiting a bit longer.

I couldn't sell mine, would be up for too much tax.
Very wary.

 

[JohnDe]

I couldn't sell mine, would be up for too much tax.
Very wary.

We all have to contribute to the tax system, sharing is caring