Bloomberg in their announcement boast that the half year results beat the experts expectations.
CSL reported the failure of the AEGIS-II trial, which impacted the share price. Follwed up with a positive annaul report but share price still down for the month.
Iggy
Bingo - CSL Down to the 2nd Level Drop...The following is a post I made a few hours ago in another Chat Room - thought some CSL tragics here may be interested....
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Crawling back into The Cave now..
The risk of not taking risk
Just as markets have started to get bumpy on rising Middle East stresses and the shifting outlook for interest rates, billionaire investor Howard Marks has issued an important reminder. Going backward is part and parcel of moving forward. Or more bluntly: no pain no gain.
Marks, the co-founder and co-chairman of hedge fund Oaktree Capital with nearly $300bn under management - remember local fund giant Australian Super has a little over $315bn under management.
For decades, Marks has consistently spoken to his clients about the path to achieving investment outperformance. This has often involved changing positions, such as recently coming around to a view that bitcoin can be likened to gold or art - assets with no intrinsic value but hold significant value.
In his latest memo sent to investors, Marks says he was inspired by an article that appeared this month under the sports section in the Wall Street Journal: Chess Teaches the Power of Sacrifice.
As the title suggests, the piece written by chess grandmaster Maurice Ashley underscores the role that sacrifice plays in chess where most positions can’t be won or saved without giving another piece away. Intentionally losing a piece – the sacrifice – becomes part of the game plan, Marks says.
This can be in the form of “sham” sacrifices, where the trade-off is something tangible of value in return. Then there’s “real” sacrifices that involve a bigger leap of faith given gains are neither immediate nor tangible - however they may result in gaining ground or launching a bigger attack.
The analogy to investing becomes obvious pretty quickly, Marks says.
Buying a 10-year US bond might be “sham” sacrifice because while you give up your money for a decade, the same decision comes with the certainty of income. However, most other investments involve “real” sacrifice because often the risk of loss borne in pursuit of gains that are neither immediate nor tangible. Whatever the path of risk, not being willing to take risks is an extremely risky strategy. Marks puts this another way - the indispensability of risk. Or there’s the better known phrase: No pain, no gain.
Marks breaks this up into three choices for investors: The first is to avoid risk and have little or no return. Secondly, they can opt for modest risk and settle for modest return.
But the third path, earning high returns, requires that you bear meaningful risk - either in the possibility of loss in the chase for gains, or in professional investor terms underperformance in the pursuit of outperformance.
Most investors are capable of accomplishing the first and most of the second, Marks says.
But the challenge in investing lies in the pursuit of some version of the third point.
“Earning high returns – in absolute terms or relative to other investors in a market – requires that you bear meaningful risk”.
This is either “the possibility of loss in the pursuit of absolute gain or the possibility of underperformance in the pursuit of outperformance,” Marks says.
“There’s such a thing as the risk of taking too little risk. Most people understand this intellectually, but human nature makes it hard for many to accept the idea that the willingness to live with some losses is an essential ingredient in investment success,” he adds.
Applying this strategy, Marks says, investors must accept that success is likely to stem from making many investments, and they have to also accept there will be a portion of these investments that won’t succeed.
“You have to put it all out there. You have to take a shot. Not every effort will be rewarded with high returns, but hopefully enough will do so to produce success over the long term”.
The bottom line on the quest for superior investment returns is clear, Marks says. “You shouldn’t expect to make money without bearing risk, but you shouldn’t expect to make money just for taking risk. You have to sacrifice certainty, but it has to be done skilfully and intelligently, and with emotion under control,” Marks concludes.
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