CSL - CSL Limited

Dona Ferentes · 15 August 2023

CSL results out. I'll leave it to market to price.. now $263.

FY23 reported NPATA US$2.61 billion
Up 20% at constant currency
Strong Ig growth
Record level of plasma collections
CSL Vifor integration well advanced
Successful launch of gene therapy HEMGENIX®

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Revenue $13.31 billion, up 31% at CC
• NPAT $2.19 billion, down 3%
• NPAT $2.44 billion at CC, up 8%
• NPATA $2.61 billion, up 10%
• NPATA $2.86 billion at CC, up 20%
• NPATA earnings per share $5.412, up 6%
• NPATA earnings per share $5.92 at CC up 17%
• Final dividend of US$1.29 per share
o Total full year dividend US$2.36, up 6%
o Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$3.59 per share, up 13%
• NPATA for FY24 is anticipated to be in the range of approximately $2.9 billion to $3.0 billion at CC

Knobby22 · 15 August 2023

Dona Ferentes said:
CSL results out. I'll leave it to market to price.. now $263.

FY23 reported NPATA US$2.61 billion

Up 20% at constant currency

Strong Ig growth

Record level of plasma collections

CSL Vifor integration well advanced

Successful launch of gene therapy HEMGENIX®

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Revenue $13.31 billion, up 31% at CC
• NPAT $2.19 billion, down 3%
• NPAT $2.44 billion at CC, up 8%
• NPATA $2.61 billion, up 10%
• NPATA $2.86 billion at CC, up 20%
• NPATA earnings per share $5.412, up 6%
• NPATA earnings per share $5.92 at CC up 17%
• Final dividend of US$1.29 per share
o Total full year dividend US$2.36, up 6%
o Converted to Australian currency, the total full year dividend is approximately A$3.59 per share, up 13%
• NPATA for FY24 is anticipated to be in the range of approximately $2.9 billion to $3.0 billion at CC

Looks pretty good to me.

Dona Ferentes · 15 August 2023

Underpromise and (slightly) over deliver

Miner · 15 August 2023

With the good outcome from CSL published today, I think @DrBourse is just smiling to get his earlier prediction to be validated soon

DrBourse · 17 August 2023

DrBourse said:
In my post dated 17/6/23 I suggested 2 more 10% drops were ahead for CSL… That call was close enough to be correct….

Today (8/8/23 @ 11am), CSL SP is $262, their IV is just a bit lower @ between $225 to $258, that IV is nearly at the end if its tenure – Up-coming Financials may paint a different IV picture….. Need to Wait’n’see…..

CSL’s 2/9/23 Financials should give us some guidance, but we must remember to ignore any Analyst Guesstimates, as they are usually wrong every year….

A properly constructed Balance Sheet along with believable guidance from CSL should see their SP stabilise…..

An incorrectly structured Balance Sheet and Lack of Guidance could see the IV & SP drop to believable levels…. Remember CSL has been ‘ramped up’ to ridiculously overbought levels by analysts for years now…..

CSL’s overnight ADR’s on the OTC & FWB suggests more ST downside for our CSL…..

ST Inds on CSL are still not happy…..

View attachment 160675
View attachment 160676
View attachment 160677

St Bottom is unpredictable at this stage….

Gotta go polish my crystal ????s…..

Cheers…

DrB.

FWIW – Just checked around the traps to see how Brokers TA looked – 7 Buy, 9 Hold & 10 Sell…..

Then, on the other hand we have the Brokers Guesstimates that look like this – 35 Buy, 5 Hold, & 1 Sell….. some Brokers are spruiking a TP of $350.00 – and unfortunately most Sheep will push the SP up to that crazy price….

The combined Brokers Calls = 42 Buy, 14 hold & 11 Sell…..

Then we have the actual Financial Analysis that looks like the snapshot below….. followed by my TA….

Cheers....
DrB.

peter2 · 31 August 2023

Looks like price is going up from here. Thought it may go lower to 250 - 255, but it seems not. High volume bullish bar today.

dyna · 1 September 2023

Yeah , I've given up , trying to outsmart the market.
Ah , you learn .

DrBourse · 1 September 2023

Refer to my post dated 17/6/23 where I called for further pullbacks on CSL…. Those pullbacks occurred as predicted…. I have made subsequent posts between then and now, the CSL situation has now changed a bit, in that the CSL IV is now $257.21, so looking at my chart below, CSL is still Overbought, and should re-test $256.02 in the near future….. All ST FA & TA suggests continued weakness in CSL… So any upturn in the CSL SP will be by Ramping or misguided Sheep action....

DYOR...

DrBourse · 1 September 2023

DrBourse said:
Refer to my post dated 17/6/23 where I called for further pullbacks on CSL…. Those pullbacks occurred as predicted…. I have made subsequent posts between then and now, the CSL situation has now changed a bit, in that the CSL IV is now $257.21, so looking at my chart below, CSL is still Overbought, and should re-test $256.02 in the near future….. All ST FA & TA suggests continued weakness in CSL… So any upturn in the CSL SP will be by Ramping or misguided Sheep action....
View attachment 161781
DYOR...

AS I mentioned above, IMO, All ST FA & TA suggests continued weakness in CSL… So any upturn in the CSL SP will be by Ramping or misguided Sheep action.... So here I list the TA infulences in play atm.....
Bearish Red Candle today, Benchmark Candle Formation is still in play, The Linear Regression is still falling, the recent Double Top Candle Formation also suggests further pullback, most ST Indicators also suggest ST Downtrend, and the are other minor signals too numerous to mention.....
DYOR

UMike · 1 September 2023

Journy aint over yet.
Still think 290 is more likely than 250

Dona Ferentes · 1 September 2023

A$1.99 dividend, goes ex on 11 Sept

DrBourse · 1 September 2023

UMike said:
Journy aint over yet.
Still think 290 is more likely than 250

C’mon UMike that’s just fodder for the Sheep – where’s the evidence to back up the opinion that you “Still think 290 is more likely than 250” ?....
You may very well be right, But, As everyone knows I only deal in Facts...

UMike · 1 September 2023

DrBourse said:
C’mon UMike that’s just fodder for the Sheep – where’s the evidence to back up the opinion that you “Still think 290 is more likely than 250” ?....
You may very well be right, But, As everyone knows I only deal in Facts...

Sheep and facts do not often correlate and move in two different ways.

DrBourse · 1 September 2023

Dona Ferentes said:
A$1.99 dividend, goes ex on 11 Sept

Hi Dona, yep, and the drop after last years Div was abt $20.00, so that should happen again this year...
That would place the CSL SP @ abt $256. 00 if the divvy went through today....

Dona Ferentes · 1 September 2023

DrBourse said:
yep, and the drop after last years Div was abt $20.00, so that should happen again this year...

i reckon it will drop about $2, possibly a bit more.

last 2 distributions; let's see. A year ago, it actually rose and 6 months ago, it fell over a period of several days. Plotted against the ASX200 index, the moves were in keeping with general trend, a bit amified but nothing dramatic.
CSL's revised outlook, in June, brought about a much more significant dispersion.

UMike · 1 September 2023

UMike said:
Sheep and facts do not often correlate and move in two different ways.

May I add that markets move on sentiment as well as facts. That is what TA generally relies on.
In a way I still reckon CSL is too big to rely on TA and Mums and Dads speculation.
However “experts” public speculation is a guide to be taken into consideration when judging where and how much the shepherd will guide the sheep on the hill or valley

DrBourse · 21 September 2023

DrBourse said:
Refer to my post dated 17/6/23 where I called for further pullbacks on CSL…. Those pullbacks occurred as predicted…. I have made subsequent posts between then and now, the CSL situation has now changed a bit, in that the CSL IV is now $257.21, so looking at my chart below, CSL is still Overbought, and should re-test $256.02 in the near future….. All ST FA & TA suggests continued weakness in CSL… So any upturn in the CSL SP will be by Ramping or misguided Sheep action....
View attachment 161781
DYOR...

Bingo !!!!!.....

CSL Opened $259.01

CSL now just above my 17/6/23, $256.02 call……

Option action is always difficult to predict….

Need a couple of days to work out which way CSL might go next, $200 or $300…

Dona Ferentes · 21 September 2023

sellers still in control... big lick through, this morning

mullokintyre · 21 September 2023

I have some bids in at 240.
More than happy for it to get to that figure.
Mick

DrBourse · 21 September 2023

BINGO Again !!!!!
$256.02...
Not a bad call to make on 17/6/23 when CSL was @ $284.44 - CSL actually hit the magical $256.02 on 17/7/23 and again today 21/9/23....

Anyone wonder where to next for CSL, I've already worked it out - very interesting - just a pitty "The Duck" is not around, He might have learnt something abt TA....
Crawling back into my Cave now.....

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