CSL - CSL Limited

[Econinvestor]

Thank you, nomore4s, for saving me the trouble of pointing out what you have here.
Probably unproductive to engage in discussion with Ecoinvestor.

Probably unproductive to engage in discussions when your arguments are bereft of logic or reason, you mean. What was it you said about CBA? Its now around $37 just as I predicted based on fundamentals. You said to post in six months, but I think it only took 2 months for it to get to that level.

Put your money where your mouth is, and tell us where you think things are headed and why. That's what this forum is about, not sniping.

And I'd be perfectly happy if you didn't comment on my posts as you have so far little to contribute but attacks based on your imagination about others motives.

 

[nomore4s]

Probably unproductive to engage in discussions when your arguments are bereft of logic or reason, you mean. What was it you said about CBA? Its now around $37 just as I predicted based on fundamentals. You said to post in six months, but I think it only took 2 months for it to get to that level.

Put your money where your mouth is, and tell us where you think things are headed and why. That's what this forum is about, not sniping.

And I'd be perfectly happy if you didn't comment on my posts as you have so far little to contribute but attacks based on your imagination about others motives.

Um, whos imagination is getting away from them? I suggest you go back and read the CBA thread - it wasn't Julia that told you to post in six months it was juw177.

If you are going to get on your high horse at least get your facts straight.

 

[Econinvestor]

Um, whos imagination is getting away from them? I suggest you go back and read the CBA thread - it wasn't Julia that told you to post in six months it was juw177.

If you are going to get on your high horse at least get your facts straight.

Thanks for the information. I'll remind juw177 instead. But I think facts about posters with the same name are pretty trivial compared with facts about the market, which is whole reason for this forum.

 

[rcm617]

the reason for the price deline is due to CSL's major share holder selling its holding from about 11% now about 4.8%. FLC stopped selling in Jan which resulted CSL price increased from 30 to 38. Recently, it started to reduce its holding again. Well, if FLC keep selling at the current speed, its 4.6% holding will disappear in about 2.5 months.
Can someone analyses their short term view on CSL? the price has been around 31-32 for more than a week now ...where will it heading? up or down ?
any comment on this!? pls plsplsplsplslpslpslpslpslsplspslpsl

Agree with you bleach that FLR selling out is the main reason for CSL being in this price range. CSL is one of the few true growth stocks in the ASX, having grown EPS at 50 and 34 % in the last two financial years. It is bound to slow down a little in this sort of climate, but even half this growth would more than justify present prices. IVIG prices in the USA are still firming and this provides 43% of CSL's revenue. Top notch management. Certainly a lot more risky to be in the banks if our house prices start taking more of a dive with rising unemployment.

 

[Prospector]

A quick read back through this thread will indicate my interest in CSL from a number of years ago. In 2005 primarily because of the 'upside' for CSL in developing a bird flu vaccine. I bought 100 for $39. The share price stayed constant for a while, until at its peak climbing to $90; it was a race to see which share - RIO, MBL, CSL and Incitec Pivot would reach $100. Eventually however, the share was spilt into 3; taking us back to $30 a share, but now owning three times the number.

I sat on CSL, enjoying the ride, until December last year. When I sold for a tidy profit. Why? The excitement over the Gardasil had waned, Bird Flu was off the Agenda and the SP had just started trailing down. For no other particular reason. I didnt, and still dont, see any upside for quite some time. I believe it has run its course.

Just my

 

[rhen]

the reason for the price deline is due to CSL's major share holder selling its holding from about 11% now about 4.8%. FLC stopped selling in Jan which resulted CSL price increased from 30 to 38. Recently, it started to reduce its holding again. Well, if FLC keep selling at the current speed, its 4.6% holding will disappear in about 2.5 months.
Can someone analyses their short term view on CSL? the price has been around 31-32 for more than a week now ...where will it heading? up or down ?

Looking at a monthly chart (and considering indicators not shown), I am not overly optimistic on CSL making new highs over time. For instance, look at the volume and the price movements of late.
The daily chart however looks better suggesting short trades may be positive...though I think I can find better shares to do so.
I hope everybody remains cautious in this potential boomlet.

 

[Sean K]

I think facts about posters with the same name are pretty trivial compared with facts about the market, which is whole reason for this forum.

Huh?

Anyone get the gist of this?

Which posters have the same name?

And what facts about the market?

That CSL was $XX once, so it should go back there? That's the fundamental analysis?



And I think you should properly appologise to Julia for accusing her of something she did not say regarding CBA.

Thanks.

 

[Prospector]

Huh?
Anyone get the gist of this? Which posters have the same name? And what facts about the market?
That CSL was $XX once, so it should go back there? That's the fundamental analysis?
And I think you should properly appologise to Julia for accusing her of something she did not say regarding CBA.
Thanks.

Hear Hear Kennas. I think Econinvestor has not only provided insufficent analysis of his claims, but then bags those who have. Let alone accuse Julia of something she didnt even say as a support to their claims, then refuse to properly apologise for their accusation when it is pointed out to them. Julia has her dog as her Avatar; get the names mixed? Well maybe, but actually, the names arent even close! Avatars tend to stick! Probably not a great way to start as a new Poster.

 

[bleach8]

Will the new swine flu have any positive impact on CSL?

I thought they had something about the bird flu...

 

[Prospector]

Possibly, and BTA as well. Both are involved; CSL has a flu vaccine, BTA has the treatment drug. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. The impact of this latest issue, and the human to human transmission, along with the Global Financial Crisis is actually really scary.

 

[drlog]

Possibly, and BTA as well. Both are involved; CSL has a flu vaccine, BTA has the treatment drug. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. The impact of this latest issue, and the human to human transmission, along with the Global Financial Crisis is actually really scary.

Add in global warming, Somali pirates and the Taliban taking control of Pakistan. YAY, now we are all afraid!

Anyway, back to CSL. From what I can see, they have been growing consistently in the past few years. They have good forecast growth, their fundamentals look good (Quick ratio, current ratio). Their PEG is 0.64 at the moment!

It doesn't make sense? The company is worth more than the current share price! They are currently growing so why isn't the share price growing as well? I am holding for sure. If I had any money lying around, I would buy more at the current bargain price

Cool

 

[waz]

Massive price fall today on pretty big volume.
Ive seen spreads as wide as 60c this morning.

Its now fallen 10% in a few days.
Since Im expecting the Au to fall in the next few days, Im going long again on this one. May get myself a nice spread.

oops. just got closed, 50c movment in about 10 mins. horay for volatility.

I better do some charting before getting on it again. It hit a low of 31.11 this morning.

EDIT:
Now suspended, someone knows something, nothing official yet.

 

[Prospector]

I received this alert today:
"Proposed Acquisition of Talecris" I know nothing more but it is considered as price sensitive. Received it at 10.32

 

[carmen]

This one is looking like a very juicy short. I am looking to put the short on at about the red dot. (after failed rally to $33) $32.10-$31.90. What do you think?

 

[skc]

This one is looking like a very juicy short. I am looking to put the short on at about the red dot. (after failed rally to $33) $32.10-$31.90. What do you think?

View attachment 30304

Is it going to get to your price? Where would you place your stop loss? Would you add to your position on break below $30? What would be a profit target, or you would just trail a stop?

Just something to consider. Good luck with the trade.

 

[bleach8]

You are very brave to go short for CSL. The price of CSL is under pressure as a result of the potential FTC’s decision on the acquisition of Talecris. 75% of experts expect the deal will go through some ways, as a matter of how and when. The price for CSL(At current price of 31.5) will go up regardless of the decision from FTC.

If the deal get approve, the target price will be above $40.
If the deal get rejected, CSL will conduct a share buyback using its 1.6billion cash reserve. The buyback will increase CSL’s EPS by about 6% even at a price of $36 per share.

Either way the price will go up. I got the above info from some articles of RBS. I am not saying I am right, but all other institutional investors can obvious see this logic. Soon or later, they will start to buy CSL.

Also, from today’s chart, reasonable large volumes are appeared to push the price up 1 hour before the market close which can be a positive sign for Monday. Maybe there are reasons to go short from technical point of view, but overall I think it will be too risky to go short.

 

[Aussiest]

Maybe there are reasons to go short from technical point of view

Good point about technicals. If you had taken any long position this week based on technicals alone, you would have been stopped out (if had tight stops). Why? News and sentiment.

I am short CSL, but also long. Price looked shakey. Should have closed out my short, but i think possiblity for down still there. Not too worried about going long as i think it will rise in time.

 

[skc]

I am short CSL, but also long. Price looked shakey. Should have closed out my short, but i think possiblity for down still there. Not too worried about going long as i think it will rise in time.

Please explain *With Paulin Hanson tone*

Do you have a separate long investment holding vs a trading short?

 

[Nero64]

CSL is a defensive stock. It will usually hold its ground in a down market. It did well to come of its low on Friday and held up well the day before when the market fell 3%

Good luck with the short but I think your barking up the wrong tree. Then again QBE fell $6-7 a few months ago and sometime the best trades are against the consensus. However sell the weak and buy the strong come to mind when I think of CSL. Just to note PRY, HSP, COH and SHL did well last week and CSL only lost 6c. What bleach8 said is probably correct. The market dislikes uncertainty.

 

[Knobby22]

I agree with Nero and bleach but however am hoping CSL will drop with the continuation of the bear market. In fact I have set aside some money to buy when this occurs.
I'm not game to short them though.