Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
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that was the rationale, the songbook of Globalisation. And, if not the sole factor, certainly a significant element of what got us into this mess.
COVID-19: How Not To Kill an Economy
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More information please DF ...
Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
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Was a thought bubble (sort of) ,,, but when China joined the World Trade Organisation and it was signed into law on October 10, 2000 by United States President Bill Clinton, I distinctly remember the triumphalism and the use of "WIN WIN" to basically silence the naysayers.
And here we are 20 years on, with a total trade imbalance. Some economic benefits have accrued, millions may have been 'lifted out of poverty' but problem not solved. Situation is precarious; maybe the next reset could swing the pendulum t'other way.
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yes
If you notice: in China indeed mask plus glasses
sunglasses covering sides are sufficient
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While millions have been lifted from poverty in Asia,quite a few millions have been thrown into poverty in the west, and the middle class here has been annihilated.
It was never a win win but a
**** them initiative
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I think there's still denial going on at all levels - government, population, business and so on.
Between you, me and everyone else here we could probably compile a list of the biggest disasters and incidents we've personally been in some way involved with or at least affected by. We'll come up with the usual fires, floods, transport accidents, Smurf will say something about power system incidents, someone else will say something about an industrial accident somewhere, someone else will question whether going broke or getting divorced counts. etc.
Bottom line is this problem with COVID-19 is far, far bigger than all of those put together. It's not 20 small towns razed to the ground but where we can ultimately rebuild. It's not people standing on the roof waiting for the helicopter to come and pick them out of the flood waters. It's not having the entire state in the dark and trying to restart. It's not a ship sinking or a train derailment.
This virus is several orders of magnitude bigger than any of that and I think that as a society we're still in denial about the sheer scale of the problem.
Bunkering down whilst the storm passes or until the lights come back on is one thing, it's a nuisance but that's all really, it's nothing compared to this. Once that reality sets in, once people realise that this isn't just a few days or weeks, well then I think we'll see the approach shift to one of desperation and a willingness to try anything that has a chance of working no matter how convoluted and held together with string and duct tape it happens to be.
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CV19 is special.
MERS and SARS as some are aware was hard to spread, via one showed symptoms to be able to.
As such a perfectly normal person walked around and when ill, and only ill was infectious.
CV19 whilst WHO some may think dropped the ball, or China, reality is by 30 Dec 2019 weeks after first infection WHO despite being lobotomized by USA and cuts, issued its first warning then again 8th Jan and for the 5th time ever .... 30th Jan 2020 a full emergency.
Whilst having opinions.... facts verses actions and science dictates.
Why WHO declared an emergency was contained in the 30th Jan release. CV19 was twice as infectious as SARS and MERS ... and spread when no sign of infection was evident via symptoms making it whilst less life threatening than its closest relations, 10 times more deadly via diabolical spread rates.
I would agree, we have NOT even started, we are in act1 science one in relation to the impacts and ending of this event.
Each nation chose to act. Australia acted accordingly and whilst not berserk like others like South Korea even our March 1 total tests was 100 times USA response. they had done 2,000 tests for 329 million people, Canada and other similar.
With a vaccine a long way off, longer than I thought at 9 months till meaningful deployment and likely 12 or more, we go into hibernation for a long while. Globally still DENIAL is the common theme. Being locked up for 6 weeks will NOT stop outbreaks popping up again and again till a vaccine is out there. A Prophylactic or Antiviral agent that works if infected or the former protects from getting infected, is NOT going to occur sooner than a vaccine.
MERS and SARS were a massive hit to Asia but quite different animals. In the end via testing people who developed symptoms and only then became contagious the two closest relations die out on their own.
SARS did get a vaccine. SARS1, and not one spoken about much because despite an awful mortality rate the vaccine was WORSE than the virus itself so to be blunt that's bloody hard when it already was deadly. Of course we are 2020 and not 2003, still without time and to see side effects and all of them via new vaccine or therapy, its clear any shortcuts will and likely will be a mistake.
The world is in two camps, economically and socially with developed nations. A displayed indifference for the welfare of the masses and those who are NOT. At this time. already strained relations are going bust. Stealing masks of one nation off the Tarmac or hijacking, paying 300% in cash for something already paid for is NOT going to help. Attacking China and we all have faults, their system and choice of goverment did as best one might expect being rational in sharing the new bug .... WHO releases show that and the timeline.
What we did and other nations did and cope is sadly displayed, with living horror in one case. Social norms of kissing on the cheek and CV19, early cases via large populations can even under normal rates see 1 person at them infecting 3 every 5 days ... in 50 days that's 59,000 infections.
We love om a word where science is denied. In fact if it doesn't suit us, attacked. CV19 really does have no political party and really cares not at all about BS.
It lives happily inside us at 37C and lives well at much greater temps. So expecting it to go away or be defeated is an absurdity. Shut up peasants BACK to work for $10 an hour !!
I am happy not to live in such a place. Of course most will deny till their face turns blue and not about to waste time of effort with them. Canada right next door to the USA, first infection 4 days after USA acted quite differently and society and tax much like our own. If one multiplies their population by say 10 you have the USA. USA magically claimed it knew, actions speak far louder as do now even crries to get back to work peasants.
This virus is a game changer globally. We will emerge, low debt to GDP adding 50% MORE will still leave us at HALF m0st nations totals and overall including tax we collect from rich and poor a total with super of around 38% tax. NZ our bestie similar .... EU nations same but mush higher Debt levels. They however took the effort to REDUCE post GFC, face ugly choices as did we, higher contributions for many latter retirement age and slashing payouts on some pensions.'
Eu same thing and our budget was to balance this year ... EU has been doing so for 8 years.. USA well ... a 5% Deficit 10 years post GFC ? and tax not slightly rising but tax cuts that went 92% to the top 10%.
Golly gee ,,,, they like all others .. will take a hit. Will the peasants go back to work ? Will the world endure a nation likely to be 30 trillion in debt over a much lower GDP size than now so likely 160% Debt to GDP and a mere 12% likely being collected in tax ?
Who will nations lend to ? An EU one average at 135% debt to GDP and 40% tax .... or one with $160- and $12 income but wanting to spend $20-
Trump and he is no different than Obama and Bush or Clinton just wall street investment bank types of a different color. They DEMAND you lend to them
I am sure the French region hardest hit will forget 20 million masks taken from the Tarmac as will Germany and Canada .... having expected supplies ... stopped.
In the GFc 3 banks came clean and declared they were in effect broke .... late 2007. Same assets identical bonds on every banks books and ... as such if one was marking them to market and the the rest ... were also broke. Market reported 5% plus GDP growth that week ... really ? Market did fall ... 15% only to recover as all is well was trumpeted to 3% off all time highs. On and on and ON it went. The problem was in plain sight at the start. Amusing to get a billion into AMBC the bond insurer when it had 10 billion in losses it had already ... it got an AAA rating just like Australia which had NO federal debt not a cent and AMBAC was broke 9 months latter.
Expect the same, in fact, WORSE. China relations were poor with USA and so too every other nation either bullied or stolen from by USA sponsored tax theft. Australia did better than most and got about 20% of the tax Google took via 472 million settlement. The USA tax cuts halving USA tax paid is the sole reason why USA stock rose above all others. NO other reason ... or other than state protected tax theft that saw USA threaten 100% tax on French wines if they god forbid got Google or Facebook to pay tax.
Oh the world is changing and post CV19 ... all with HIGHER debt to GDP over a decade as in the past by prudent management it will be reduced. NO longer will the gloves be feather filled when discussing state sponsored and protected global tax theft. France will, nor will Germany ... tolerate it. Being polite and tolerating USA laughing at the Trumpist who really is not different from Obama who also was just a Treasury controlled by Goldman Sachs, so too Clinton Bush and on and on.
I have disgust and extreme regret for the common USA people and what their leaders and imbecile has done to them. Sadly with not much functioning free media and basically FOx news on every channel, even glancing at an adjoining country Canada and their CV19 results will not enter their minds.
Market for now, USA will deny ... dispute and well ... I am sure funding another 25% of the GDP via a slush fund to support non global tax payers will go down like Dick Smith float in future years.
Governments and good ones, and nations have billionaires and rich. Some inherit and some make it by brilliance. What defines and differentiates EU and UK and NZ and virtually all others is that they get taxed at a HIGHER rate and not a lower one. Not to penalize brilliance or punishment ... they pay their fair share. Some of our own billionaires I like, some I despise as the self serving people they are. BUT ... they PAY tax contribute to society and NOT play god and spend $876 million USD with a sole goal and thats to STOP tax to the rich. Bloomberg didn't even get a Tshirt for that.
Things, often take generations or events to change.
We have one that, well ... is unique and relationships globally already frayed are now I suspect shredded. No amount of apology will change recent events and even more racist comments via chief troll.
I cry for the lack of any comprehension or caring whilst denying CV19, doing NOT a thing, 2,000 tests and Canada compared did 100 times that adjusted ... its too late ... TOO LATE ... to advert.
Now its a victory if 100,000 die ? I like and respect and love Yanks, most with about 5,000 on the nose and likely more, a tiny fraction now rule.
Other nations, the NEEDS of the many outweigh the needs or need of the one or few.
We are, in not in denial, its often when inside an abusive relationship the awful becomes normal. Its like a dream, did someone just assassinate a leader flying to another nation ? Or did a nation politely ask and other with a spy plane over its soil, rather than shooting it down, to leave ? Did the worlds richest man never pay a dividend, never pay tax anywhere ?
Times they are a changing. Of course, resistance as the Borg say, is FUTILE. of course with every billion they possess they will sadly in the case of the USA expect and demand the rest of the world fund their debt, not ask even for pennies form their profits overseas and BOW ... and then fund their slush fund to bail out tax criminals.
Its going to be FUN to watch. TAKE THE PAIN NOW ... early and well ... a vaccine is not possible inside 12 months. As such, the impacts I gave are an AT best, and an at best impact in the stock market is not anywhere near current levels.
I note now the USA oil industry is to be bailed out via Tariffs and all oil at $60- a barrel because USA break even is that. Wonder who will bear the brunt and who will bear the benifits ? We and EU and most others already have petrol with massive inbuilt tariffs and stuff. Then again we have a functioning healthcare system ... we have decent roads, good education and good support if you get sick via income or loose your job.
GET BACK TO WORK .... NOW ... PEASANT ... I need my burgers .. the virus I defeated it at 15 cases and the rest is fake news.
See Donald when he announced 100,000 deaths likely, he spent 15 minutes talking about his ratings.
What a caring fellow he is. Amusing 7 minutes about how we love his wife Mealaiananan .. whoops Ivanka. Oh boy ... they started with a C grade movie guy Regan and now a game show host and slum lord running the effort Ivankas pretend Husband JJJJAaaarod,
NOW .... clean my boots ... BOY !! and that racists term is for anyone non Trump like of any background race and creed even white dumb folks called Kiwi's whoops ,,, Ozzies ...
Find a rock and HIDE in a financial sense. What is left standing in 12 months will not resemble o matter the governments efforts what is standing today. As yet to be reflected in stocks let alone eventual mayhem from overseas and peasants refusing to serve Trump his burger and his tantrum.
Upside ? well we just had the dead cat bounce !!
My worst case, outlook is NOW my best case result 14 days latter. Of course we are miles away from a best case low and worst case ... is well .... I dont want to think that far ahead.
Doomsday preppers seem sane right now so ... well if that's true even for an instant, golly !!
MERS and SARS as some are aware was hard to spread, via one showed symptoms to be able to.
As such a perfectly normal person walked around and when ill, and only ill was infectious.
CV19 whilst WHO some may think dropped the ball, or China, reality is by 30 Dec 2019 weeks after first infection WHO despite being lobotomized by USA and cuts, issued its first warning then again 8th Jan and for the 5th time ever .... 30th Jan 2020 a full emergency.
Whilst having opinions.... facts verses actions and science dictates.
Why WHO declared an emergency was contained in the 30th Jan release. CV19 was twice as infectious as SARS and MERS ... and spread when no sign of infection was evident via symptoms making it whilst less life threatening than its closest relations, 10 times more deadly via diabolical spread rates.
I would agree, we have NOT even started, we are in act1 science one in relation to the impacts and ending of this event.
Each nation chose to act. Australia acted accordingly and whilst not berserk like others like South Korea even our March 1 total tests was 100 times USA response. they had done 2,000 tests for 329 million people, Canada and other similar.
With a vaccine a long way off, longer than I thought at 9 months till meaningful deployment and likely 12 or more, we go into hibernation for a long while. Globally still DENIAL is the common theme. Being locked up for 6 weeks will NOT stop outbreaks popping up again and again till a vaccine is out there. A Prophylactic or Antiviral agent that works if infected or the former protects from getting infected, is NOT going to occur sooner than a vaccine.
MERS and SARS were a massive hit to Asia but quite different animals. In the end via testing people who developed symptoms and only then became contagious the two closest relations die out on their own.
SARS did get a vaccine. SARS1, and not one spoken about much because despite an awful mortality rate the vaccine was WORSE than the virus itself so to be blunt that's bloody hard when it already was deadly. Of course we are 2020 and not 2003, still without time and to see side effects and all of them via new vaccine or therapy, its clear any shortcuts will and likely will be a mistake.
The world is in two camps, economically and socially with developed nations. A displayed indifference for the welfare of the masses and those who are NOT. At this time. already strained relations are going bust. Stealing masks of one nation off the Tarmac or hijacking, paying 300% in cash for something already paid for is NOT going to help. Attacking China and we all have faults, their system and choice of goverment did as best one might expect being rational in sharing the new bug .... WHO releases show that and the timeline.
What we did and other nations did and cope is sadly displayed, with living horror in one case. Social norms of kissing on the cheek and CV19, early cases via large populations can even under normal rates see 1 person at them infecting 3 every 5 days ... in 50 days that's 59,000 infections.
We love om a word where science is denied. In fact if it doesn't suit us, attacked. CV19 really does have no political party and really cares not at all about BS.
It lives happily inside us at 37C and lives well at much greater temps. So expecting it to go away or be defeated is an absurdity. Shut up peasants BACK to work for $10 an hour !!
I am happy not to live in such a place. Of course most will deny till their face turns blue and not about to waste time of effort with them. Canada right next door to the USA, first infection 4 days after USA acted quite differently and society and tax much like our own. If one multiplies their population by say 10 you have the USA. USA magically claimed it knew, actions speak far louder as do now even crries to get back to work peasants.
This virus is a game changer globally. We will emerge, low debt to GDP adding 50% MORE will still leave us at HALF m0st nations totals and overall including tax we collect from rich and poor a total with super of around 38% tax. NZ our bestie similar .... EU nations same but mush higher Debt levels. They however took the effort to REDUCE post GFC, face ugly choices as did we, higher contributions for many latter retirement age and slashing payouts on some pensions.'
Eu same thing and our budget was to balance this year ... EU has been doing so for 8 years.. USA well ... a 5% Deficit 10 years post GFC ? and tax not slightly rising but tax cuts that went 92% to the top 10%.
Golly gee ,,,, they like all others .. will take a hit. Will the peasants go back to work ? Will the world endure a nation likely to be 30 trillion in debt over a much lower GDP size than now so likely 160% Debt to GDP and a mere 12% likely being collected in tax ?
Who will nations lend to ? An EU one average at 135% debt to GDP and 40% tax .... or one with $160- and $12 income but wanting to spend $20-
Trump and he is no different than Obama and Bush or Clinton just wall street investment bank types of a different color. They DEMAND you lend to them
I am sure the French region hardest hit will forget 20 million masks taken from the Tarmac as will Germany and Canada .... having expected supplies ... stopped.
In the GFc 3 banks came clean and declared they were in effect broke .... late 2007. Same assets identical bonds on every banks books and ... as such if one was marking them to market and the the rest ... were also broke. Market reported 5% plus GDP growth that week ... really ? Market did fall ... 15% only to recover as all is well was trumpeted to 3% off all time highs. On and on and ON it went. The problem was in plain sight at the start. Amusing to get a billion into AMBC the bond insurer when it had 10 billion in losses it had already ... it got an AAA rating just like Australia which had NO federal debt not a cent and AMBAC was broke 9 months latter.
Expect the same, in fact, WORSE. China relations were poor with USA and so too every other nation either bullied or stolen from by USA sponsored tax theft. Australia did better than most and got about 20% of the tax Google took via 472 million settlement. The USA tax cuts halving USA tax paid is the sole reason why USA stock rose above all others. NO other reason ... or other than state protected tax theft that saw USA threaten 100% tax on French wines if they god forbid got Google or Facebook to pay tax.
Oh the world is changing and post CV19 ... all with HIGHER debt to GDP over a decade as in the past by prudent management it will be reduced. NO longer will the gloves be feather filled when discussing state sponsored and protected global tax theft. France will, nor will Germany ... tolerate it. Being polite and tolerating USA laughing at the Trumpist who really is not different from Obama who also was just a Treasury controlled by Goldman Sachs, so too Clinton Bush and on and on.
I have disgust and extreme regret for the common USA people and what their leaders and imbecile has done to them. Sadly with not much functioning free media and basically FOx news on every channel, even glancing at an adjoining country Canada and their CV19 results will not enter their minds.
Market for now, USA will deny ... dispute and well ... I am sure funding another 25% of the GDP via a slush fund to support non global tax payers will go down like Dick Smith float in future years.
Governments and good ones, and nations have billionaires and rich. Some inherit and some make it by brilliance. What defines and differentiates EU and UK and NZ and virtually all others is that they get taxed at a HIGHER rate and not a lower one. Not to penalize brilliance or punishment ... they pay their fair share. Some of our own billionaires I like, some I despise as the self serving people they are. BUT ... they PAY tax contribute to society and NOT play god and spend $876 million USD with a sole goal and thats to STOP tax to the rich. Bloomberg didn't even get a Tshirt for that.
Things, often take generations or events to change.
We have one that, well ... is unique and relationships globally already frayed are now I suspect shredded. No amount of apology will change recent events and even more racist comments via chief troll.
I cry for the lack of any comprehension or caring whilst denying CV19, doing NOT a thing, 2,000 tests and Canada compared did 100 times that adjusted ... its too late ... TOO LATE ... to advert.
Now its a victory if 100,000 die ? I like and respect and love Yanks, most with about 5,000 on the nose and likely more, a tiny fraction now rule.
Other nations, the NEEDS of the many outweigh the needs or need of the one or few.
We are, in not in denial, its often when inside an abusive relationship the awful becomes normal. Its like a dream, did someone just assassinate a leader flying to another nation ? Or did a nation politely ask and other with a spy plane over its soil, rather than shooting it down, to leave ? Did the worlds richest man never pay a dividend, never pay tax anywhere ?
Times they are a changing. Of course, resistance as the Borg say, is FUTILE. of course with every billion they possess they will sadly in the case of the USA expect and demand the rest of the world fund their debt, not ask even for pennies form their profits overseas and BOW ... and then fund their slush fund to bail out tax criminals.
Its going to be FUN to watch. TAKE THE PAIN NOW ... early and well ... a vaccine is not possible inside 12 months. As such, the impacts I gave are an AT best, and an at best impact in the stock market is not anywhere near current levels.
I note now the USA oil industry is to be bailed out via Tariffs and all oil at $60- a barrel because USA break even is that. Wonder who will bear the brunt and who will bear the benifits ? We and EU and most others already have petrol with massive inbuilt tariffs and stuff. Then again we have a functioning healthcare system ... we have decent roads, good education and good support if you get sick via income or loose your job.
GET BACK TO WORK .... NOW ... PEASANT ... I need my burgers .. the virus I defeated it at 15 cases and the rest is fake news.
See Donald when he announced 100,000 deaths likely, he spent 15 minutes talking about his ratings.
What a caring fellow he is. Amusing 7 minutes about how we love his wife Mealaiananan .. whoops Ivanka. Oh boy ... they started with a C grade movie guy Regan and now a game show host and slum lord running the effort Ivankas pretend Husband JJJJAaaarod,
NOW .... clean my boots ... BOY !! and that racists term is for anyone non Trump like of any background race and creed even white dumb folks called Kiwi's whoops ,,, Ozzies ...
Find a rock and HIDE in a financial sense. What is left standing in 12 months will not resemble o matter the governments efforts what is standing today. As yet to be reflected in stocks let alone eventual mayhem from overseas and peasants refusing to serve Trump his burger and his tantrum.
Upside ? well we just had the dead cat bounce !!
My worst case, outlook is NOW my best case result 14 days latter. Of course we are miles away from a best case low and worst case ... is well .... I dont want to think that far ahead.
Doomsday preppers seem sane right now so ... well if that's true even for an instant, golly !!
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Sadly this seems to be following the usual state by state pattern when it comes to the law, Victoria just has to restrict things for the sake of it.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...on-with-her-mum-20200406-p54hhe.html#comments
How on earth can learning to drive not fit into the category of education that can't be done from home, a specifically permitted activity?
More to the point, given both people in the car live together the risk is ??? Before anyone says accidents - statistically learners are among the safest drivers on the road so that doesn't stack up either.
Sadly it's nothing new - Victoria has always been heavy handed with the law. In this case though, well it's one way to erode public support for the lockdown to be giving people a message that something, education, is specifically permitted and then fining them for it. Hmm....
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...on-with-her-mum-20200406-p54hhe.html#comments
How on earth can learning to drive not fit into the category of education that can't be done from home, a specifically permitted activity?
More to the point, given both people in the car live together the risk is ??? Before anyone says accidents - statistically learners are among the safest drivers on the road so that doesn't stack up either.
Sadly it's nothing new - Victoria has always been heavy handed with the law. In this case though, well it's one way to erode public support for the lockdown to be giving people a message that something, education, is specifically permitted and then fining them for it. Hmm....
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While we see billions of dollars flying around to protect so many things, we have not seen and ideas for job creation.
In south eastern States in particular we have an opportunity to restimulate the renewables sector by immediately implementing the proposed system upgrades which have hampered electricity transmission.
At the same time subsidies for battery/solar packages could be enhanced, along with removing the 5Kw feed-in limit so that household could install larger systems if their rooftops allowed.
There are numerous initiatives, such as microgrids, which can be now commenced that can prevent load shedding next summer. In other words, rather than subsidise large energy generators, put more control over electricity costs in the hands of consumers.
In south eastern States in particular we have an opportunity to restimulate the renewables sector by immediately implementing the proposed system upgrades which have hampered electricity transmission.
At the same time subsidies for battery/solar packages could be enhanced, along with removing the 5Kw feed-in limit so that household could install larger systems if their rooftops allowed.
There are numerous initiatives, such as microgrids, which can be now commenced that can prevent load shedding next summer. In other words, rather than subsidise large energy generators, put more control over electricity costs in the hands of consumers.
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Amongst all the current throwing money around to save our communities from economic decimation … (Hundreds of Billions of dollars!!)
I still cannot understand why the most effective way (pre- vaccine) to stop this thing in its tracks has not been pursued with more vigour by our intelligent leaders and number crunchers
I'm an average guy but I like to think I'm a fair problem solver. It occurred to me over 3 weeks ago (I posted my suggestion back then before we went into partial lock down), that the infection could be well curtailed quite easily … IF we had access to extensive TESTING.
How is this possible?
1) Lets assume for a moment that Australia has access to "Unlimited" testing facilities to ascertain who is carrying the virus (whether they are showing symptoms or not!)
Assuming 1) is available, the process is simple and effective.
a) Total Lock down of each Town/City/Community for 14 days (Not the current partial lock down which could linger for 6 or 12 months with potentially minimal advantage)
b) Test EVERYONE for the Virus after the 14 day 'incubation' period. Everyone remains in lock down UNTIL all results are received (lets say 2 weeks instead of the normal 3-5 days to cover the volume of work) … So a total of 1 month for what would be some very effective statistics in dealing with future spreading of the V.
c) Those testing Positive are immediately QUARANTINED (Not simply isolated .. Quarantined for at least a month)
Infections are therefore isolated and treated with no further contact with others until they are "cleared" of the virus.
Lets go a step or two further and suggest that if the above was done 2 or 3 times in succession ie. Lets say 3 months of TOTAL LOCK DOWN to ascertain who were infected and who weren't ...
I ask the question … Would this 3 months of "pro-actively" curtailing the spread of the V cost more, or less than our current "re-active" measures which will likely plunge our economy into years of hardship??
Australia has some of the best Medical personnel in the world … Our Government needs to get PRO-active and pump a portion of the Billions of dollars they are intending to spend for the next decade just to keep Australia afloat …. and spend it on funding Manufacturing TEST KITS which could effectively slow infection rates to near zero in 3 months!!
Please ... can anyone tell me why my concept is not possible or flawed because it just looks like common sense to me ...
Apologies if I sound frustrated … I have a close family member who is 'close to the action' and it annoys me that their well-being is currently being jeopardized. Cheers, and stay well.
I still cannot understand why the most effective way (pre- vaccine) to stop this thing in its tracks has not been pursued with more vigour by our intelligent leaders and number crunchers
I'm an average guy but I like to think I'm a fair problem solver. It occurred to me over 3 weeks ago (I posted my suggestion back then before we went into partial lock down), that the infection could be well curtailed quite easily … IF we had access to extensive TESTING.
How is this possible?
1) Lets assume for a moment that Australia has access to "Unlimited" testing facilities to ascertain who is carrying the virus (whether they are showing symptoms or not!)
Assuming 1) is available, the process is simple and effective.
a) Total Lock down of each Town/City/Community for 14 days (Not the current partial lock down which could linger for 6 or 12 months with potentially minimal advantage
)b) Test EVERYONE for the Virus after the 14 day 'incubation' period. Everyone remains in lock down UNTIL all results are received (lets say 2 weeks instead of the normal 3-5 days to cover the volume of work) … So a total of 1 month for what would be some very effective statistics in dealing with future spreading of the V.
c) Those testing Positive are immediately QUARANTINED (Not simply isolated .. Quarantined for at least a month)
Infections are therefore isolated and treated with no further contact with others until they are "cleared" of the virus.
Lets go a step or two further and suggest that if the above was done 2 or 3 times in succession ie. Lets say 3 months of TOTAL LOCK DOWN to ascertain who were infected and who weren't ...
I ask the question … Would this 3 months of "pro-actively" curtailing the spread of the V cost more, or less than our current "re-active" measures which will likely plunge our economy into years of hardship??
Australia has some of the best Medical personnel in the world … Our Government needs to get PRO-active and pump a portion of the Billions of dollars they are intending to spend for the next decade just to keep Australia afloat …. and spend it on funding Manufacturing TEST KITS which could effectively slow infection rates to near zero in 3 months!!
Please ... can anyone tell me why my concept is not possible or flawed because it just looks like common sense to me
... Apologies if I sound frustrated … I have a close family member who is 'close to the action' and it annoys me that their well-being is currently being jeopardized. Cheers, and stay well.
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IMO nothing wrong with your thinking Barney, just from the bits and pieces I've read, it all seems to boil down to a lack of test kits and lack of materials to make them.
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Even without any testing in mass, lockdown.. enforced of everyone for 3 weeks, then full release except for households units displaying any symptom or having displayed during lockdown.. ideally tested
Repeat quarantine only with these
Bob is your uncle
Obviously, there is always the odds for a family of 3 or above going transmission asymptomatic from one to the others but odds are low and we can then go to a test and track policy targetting new cases
This means no external entry into Australia without quarantine.. mandatory..
The great unknown are can you be contaminated twice?, once healed, can you still transmit?
And why do we have so few cases here compared to europe with a lockdown which is not applied strictly by many..?
Still missing something,
this week cold weather in Victoria could help us see if temperature is a factor.
Will we see a Victoria specific bounce in cases in the next 3 weeks.?..
Repeat quarantine only with these
Bob is your uncle
Obviously, there is always the odds for a family of 3 or above going transmission asymptomatic from one to the others but odds are low and we can then go to a test and track policy targetting new cases
This means no external entry into Australia without quarantine.. mandatory..
The great unknown are can you be contaminated twice?, once healed, can you still transmit?
And why do we have so few cases here compared to europe with a lockdown which is not applied strictly by many..?
Still missing something,
this week cold weather in Victoria could help us see if temperature is a factor.
Will we see a Victoria specific bounce in cases in the next 3 weeks.?..
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I would add mask wearing pressure on restart.
And please please do not be as our favorite qld PM who tell us lockdown until vaccine, a bit like saying no more power plant until fusion
A dream is not a policy
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Agreed with your broad point but feed-in limits are much like speed limits. There for a good reason which has nothing to do with the economy.
Remove them and the result is the same, it leads to survival of the fittest.
In the case of solar it would simply increase the problem that some systems on households work just fine whilst others are heavily curtailed. Those further down the line will see even bigger curtailment, in some cases to the point of making the system largely pointless, if enough people add high capacity systems.
The idea was certainly around in the power industry, just leave the solar industry to do whatever it likes without limit, but it was considered that the non-solar parts of the industry would probably end up copping the flak when someone's 3 year old solar system is rendered obsolete and effectively useless by someone else installing a large system in a network position (location) which naturally gives it an advantage and pushes out someone else. Etc.
At a personal level well my house just happens to be at a strong point on the distribution network. That actually is a coincidence by the way, it wasn't why I bought the place, although I'll probably struggle to convince anyone of that.
It actually is true though. For those down the end of the line though, well they'd have reasons to be unhappy.I do agree with the concept though that energy, both on the supply side and the demand side, is an area where otherwise unemployed labour could be put to use.
Here in SA an obvious one would be reprogramming all the Type 5 meters with controlled load (electric hot water) to operate during the 10am - 3pm period which is one thing needed in order to get around the network constraints obstructing further solar deployment. Those meters don't communicate, they all need a physical site visit, but the task isn't rocket science. Only reason it hasn't happened thus far is nobody can work out who pays.
Another one in this area which comes to mind is building a network of EV fast chargers nationally.
Plus of course it must be said that if the aim is to put people to work well then there's a reason Tasmania pretty much did bet the house on hydro development during the Great Depression. The approach today would be different but ultimately if we're going to build pumped hydro well then it does create a lot of man hours of work to build it and has lasting value once it's built.
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Absolutely Frog ….. As you say … even if we dont currently have the ability to test en-masse, at least testing the most likely cases after an appropriate "short term" lock down is the next best option.
I just can't understand why the big honchos are not pushing for ways to expedite mandatory testing across the board
… Testing is acknowledged as our best defence strategy against the V yet I don't recall any high profile politicians advocating a process whereby Australia pro-actively addresses the shortage of test kits as a priority …
Rather we seem to hear a view of acceptance that … "we don't have enough test kits so we must use them where most appropriate
… or, we are hoping to receive more kits from OS when they become available! Surely fabricating a plan to manufacture our own kits in house (given our medical expertise) would be a far better short to mid term plan for all Australians than throwing billions of dollars at what will possibly become a failing economy , while we hope for a vaccine which may in reality never eventuate.
I know I'm ranting ... apologies to all ... but it seems a solution (not a cure I know) is readily available if certain steps are taken. Its time to be the windscreen and not the bug!!
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I understand those issues @Smurf1976 , and it's why I suggested the battery/solar option. It would make more sense for this new cohort to "store" energy when at the same time the solar feed-in merchants are doing the exact opposite. In combination with microgrids it may enable (and please correct me if I am wrong) the feed-in merchants to be diverted to batteries within the microgrid and completely avoid curtailment.Agreed with your broad point but feed-in limits are much like speed limits. There for a good reason which has nothing to do with the economy.
Remove them and the result is the same, it leads to survival of the fittest.
In the case of solar it would simply increase the problem that some systems on households work just fine whilst others are heavily curtailed. Those further down the line will see even bigger curtailment, in some cases to the point of making the system largely pointless, if enough people add high capacity systems.
The idea was certainly around in the power industry, just leave the solar industry to do whatever it likes without limit, but it was considered that the non-solar parts of the industry would probably end up copping the flak when someone's 3 year old solar system is rendered obsolete and effectively useless by someone else installing a large system in a network position (location) which naturally gives it an advantage and pushes out someone else. Etc.
At a personal level well my house just happens to be at a strong point on the distribution network. That actually is a coincidence by the way, it wasn't why I bought the place, although I'll probably struggle to convince anyone of that.
I do agree with the concept though that energy, both on the supply side and the demand side, is an area where otherwise unemployed labour could be put to use.
Here in SA an obvious one would be reprogramming all the Type 5 meters with controlled load (electric hot water) to operate during the 10am - 3pm period which is one thing needed in order to get around the network constraints obstructing further solar deployment. Those meters don't communicate, they all need a physical site visit, but the task isn't rocket science. Only reason it hasn't happened thus far is nobody can work out who pays.
Another one in this area which comes to mind is building a network of EV fast chargers nationally.
Plus of course it must be said that if the aim is to put people to work well then there's a reason Tasmania pretty much did bet the house on hydro development during the Great Depression. The approach today would be different but ultimately if we're going to build pumped hydro well then it does create a lot of man hours of work to build it and has lasting value once it's built.
I guess my point is that there is an opportunity to create jobs and induce spending into an area where down the track savings can be realised. A smart State government could work out how subsidy offsets could be later recouped.
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In a fashion this occurred in Wuhan.Amongst all the current throwing money around to save our communities from economic decimation … (Hundreds of Billions of dollars!!)
I still cannot understand why the most effective way (pre- vaccine) to stop this thing in its tracks has not been pursued with more vigour by our intelligent leaders and number crunchers
I'm an average guy but I like to think I'm a fair problem solver. It occurred to me over 3 weeks ago (I posted my suggestion back then before we went into partial lock down), that the infection could be well curtailed quite easily … IF we had access to extensive TESTING.
How is this possible?
1) Lets assume for a moment that Australia has access to "Unlimited" testing facilities to ascertain who is carrying the virus (whether they are showing symptoms or not!)
Assuming 1) is available, the process is simple and effective.
a) Total Lock down of each Town/City/Community for 14 days (Not the current partial lock down which could linger for 6 or 12 months with potentially minimal advantage
b) Test EVERYONE for the Virus after the 14 day 'incubation' period. Everyone remains in lock down UNTIL all results are received (lets say 2 weeks instead of the normal 3-5 days to cover the volume of work) … So a total of 1 month for what would be some very effective statistics in dealing with future spreading of the V.
c) Those testing Positive are immediately QUARANTINED (Not simply isolated .. Quarantined for at least a month)
Infections are therefore isolated and treated with no further contact with others until they are "cleared" of the virus.
Lets go a step or two further and suggest that if the above was done 2 or 3 times in succession ie. Lets say 3 months of TOTAL LOCK DOWN to ascertain who were infected and who weren't ...
I ask the question … Would this 3 months of "pro-actively" curtailing the spread of the V cost more, or less than our current "re-active" measures which will likely plunge our economy into years of hardship??
Australia has some of the best Medical personnel in the world … Our Government needs to get PRO-active and pump a portion of the Billions of dollars they are intending to spend for the next decade just to keep Australia afloat …. and spend it on funding Manufacturing TEST KITS which could effectively slow infection rates to near zero in 3 months!!
Please ... can anyone tell me why my concept is not possible or flawed because it just looks like common sense to me
Apologies if I sound frustrated … I have a close family member who is 'close to the action' and it annoys me that their well-being is currently being jeopardized. Cheers, and stay well.
Soon after lockdown occurred on 23 January, every positively tested person was transferred to the newly built hospitals and isolation centres (a dozen all up from memory). If you tested positive you did not have the option to stay at home like we prefer happens here!
In coming months it is likely that many other nations will have access to self testing kits, but not Australia. We will have the TGA to thank for that.
However, what's the use of testing if there is no means to recognise it?
Again, China has solved that via an app. It's not a perfect solution, but it's pretty clever and better than nothing at all.
The IPA put out a paper today, and while I usually don't think they are progressive, they made some good points. I might review it in the morning and post back as their ideas were along the lines of what motivated me to add this new thread.
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I misread an article about the IPA - they have a long podcast instead.
Aside from the IPA's concern about the legal restraints on civil liberties, they suggest that we have done the nation no favours by restricting business to the extent it has.
Anyway, we don't have the masks available (they need not be N95 type), nor the hand sanitiser, necessary for individuals to adequately protect themselves when going out in public or going to places of work.
WRT to face masks, the point health experts have consistently overlooked is that if you wear a mask then you cannot put your infected fingers in your mouth or nose. The other avenue of the virus into your body is your eyes - so those wearing glasses win the trifecta.
Social distancing is all good and well, but if you come back from the supermarket after touching a contaminated product and you had no hand sanitiser, then it was a useless measure.
My view is that if we can make the necessary basics available for people to safely venture out, and train them to sanitise their hands after every contact with any surface, then the only restrictions needing to remain in place would relate to public gatherings which crammed people into seats/spaces for long periods.
That's where Wuhan is right now, while other Chinese cities took their foot off the accelerator some weeks back.
The difference we have in Australia is that we do not have a large infection base to begin with, so our crackdowns needn't be as aggressive as those in Wuhan.
We would, however, have to run other health initiatives in tandem. These would include mandatory isolation of all positively tested cases so there was no opportunity for the Ruby Princess syndrome to promulgate, plus increased rates of official COVID-19 testing supplemented by "antibody" self testing kits.
Aside from the IPA's concern about the legal restraints on civil liberties, they suggest that we have done the nation no favours by restricting business to the extent it has.
Anyway, we don't have the masks available (they need not be N95 type), nor the hand sanitiser, necessary for individuals to adequately protect themselves when going out in public or going to places of work.
WRT to face masks, the point health experts have consistently overlooked is that if you wear a mask then you cannot put your infected fingers in your mouth or nose. The other avenue of the virus into your body is your eyes - so those wearing glasses win the trifecta.
Social distancing is all good and well, but if you come back from the supermarket after touching a contaminated product and you had no hand sanitiser, then it was a useless measure.
My view is that if we can make the necessary basics available for people to safely venture out, and train them to sanitise their hands after every contact with any surface, then the only restrictions needing to remain in place would relate to public gatherings which crammed people into seats/spaces for long periods.
That's where Wuhan is right now, while other Chinese cities took their foot off the accelerator some weeks back.
The difference we have in Australia is that we do not have a large infection base to begin with, so our crackdowns needn't be as aggressive as those in Wuhan.
We would, however, have to run other health initiatives in tandem. These would include mandatory isolation of all positively tested cases so there was no opportunity for the Ruby Princess syndrome to promulgate, plus increased rates of official COVID-19 testing supplemented by "antibody" self testing kits.
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How good was the $130b measure that went through Parliament last night in protecting jobs?
Well, it was good for about 6 million workers, but not for about 2 million workers who will miss out. Nevertheless, 75% is a good pass mark. The question then is what were the other options.
First, the intent of JobKeeper is to enable employers to maintain a connection with their staff who could no longer be gainfully employed. While it's a great idea, an option was to use compulsory superannuation payments as the link, rather than the more expensive wage subsidy that mostly pays people not to work. I would have set the government contribution at $75/week, which is about 10% of the minimum wage.
Next, I would have created a new social security category for displaced employees so that it would be possible to properly determine who was being affected, plus capture other data from them that would enable better targeted assistance in the event a similar virus hits the planet in future.
Finally, I would have ensured that displaced workers received a livable benefit rather than the standard rate received by previously unemployed.
Well, it was good for about 6 million workers, but not for about 2 million workers who will miss out. Nevertheless, 75% is a good pass mark. The question then is what were the other options.
First, the intent of JobKeeper is to enable employers to maintain a connection with their staff who could no longer be gainfully employed. While it's a great idea, an option was to use compulsory superannuation payments as the link, rather than the more expensive wage subsidy that mostly pays people not to work. I would have set the government contribution at $75/week, which is about 10% of the minimum wage.
Next, I would have created a new social security category for displaced employees so that it would be possible to properly determine who was being affected, plus capture other data from them that would enable better targeted assistance in the event a similar virus hits the planet in future.
Finally, I would have ensured that displaced workers received a livable benefit rather than the standard rate received by previously unemployed.
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Evidence that our government is out of ideas about actually stimulating job creation are found all across the country.
This project in WA should have been jumped on. Not just ultra-low risk, but high return in that much needed medical supplies could be brought back on return flights.
At the local level, fruit & vegetable growers in eastern Australia are still hamstrung by an inability to have fruit pickers cross State borders unless they go into 14 days quarantine. And that's aside from the issue of finding accommodation as they go, because often their group size would prevent the usual sharing arrangements.
Building and construction projects should have been fast tracked as these activities are low risk for virus transmission. We could have had a lot of State Housing underway, and we could have ramped up infrastructure projects.
We don't have any visionary projects to launch into, so that remains a major failure of Morrison. He's so focused on steering us off the rocks that he's lost the map to our destination.
This project in WA should have been jumped on. Not just ultra-low risk, but high return in that much needed medical supplies could be brought back on return flights.
At the local level, fruit & vegetable growers in eastern Australia are still hamstrung by an inability to have fruit pickers cross State borders unless they go into 14 days quarantine. And that's aside from the issue of finding accommodation as they go, because often their group size would prevent the usual sharing arrangements.
Building and construction projects should have been fast tracked as these activities are low risk for virus transmission. We could have had a lot of State Housing underway, and we could have ramped up infrastructure projects.
We don't have any visionary projects to launch into, so that remains a major failure of Morrison. He's so focused on steering us off the rocks that he's lost the map to our destination.
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