Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[divs4ever]

i was thinking of Australia , primarily

from memory BPT has several capped wells waiting ... ( as opposed to abandoned ) , i am guessing they are lacking the plant and infrastructure needed to make them producers ( and maybe they need a higher oil price to be profitable )

although with current prices bouncing around $US 100 a barrel , what sort of baseline oil price do they need ( some Ozzie wells in a small producer had a break-even of $US 35 a barrel about 2 years back ) , surely they can't expect a stable baseline of $US 120 plus , that would almost signal a collapsed global economy ( by my reckoning )

 

[over9k]

View attachment 140843

Alright close eyes on these numbers and their trend, if they keep increasing going into the weekend then we can expect the slaughter to continue into next week, if they look like rolling over a cheeky buy on friday might be on the cards.

17,000 cases reported, chinese stocks hitting yet another low below where they were on 15 march

 

[over9k]

I want deep discounts. 50% off on all the stocks I want to buy.

Low enough yet?

 

[moXJO]

View attachment 141086View attachment 141085

Low enough yet?

P/E and peg stopped looking like it's a crypto valuation yet?

Well maybe I'll just do some short term swings.

 

[sptrawler]

Well who would have guessed.

This Perth family signed a contract to build their dream home 75 weeks ago. They are still waiting to move in

The Kirtisingham family expect to wait another year before they can move into their home as the building industry struggles to keep up with demand created by stimulus grant payments, which experts say have had "unintended consequences".

www.abc.net.au

It's been 75 weeks since Perth couple Cassie and Julian Kirtisingham signed a contract to build a five-bedroom, two-bathroom house in the city's southern suburbs.
Like many new home buyers, the couple signed up in late 2020 so they could take advantage of $20,000 WA government and $25,000 federal government stimulus grants designed to keep the construction industry alive during the pandemic.

The slab was laid in September last year, allowing them to qualify for the grants, and this was followed by the lower level of bricks in December.
"Sadly, even though our timber has been sitting there for six weeks, we are at nearly 72 weeks and no work has been done since early December," she posted in early April.
Yet since they signed their contract, the couple said their builder had given them two price increases, two contract extensions and had notified them of another.
Theirs is not an unusual story in Perth's overheated residential construction market, where the inflation rate is the highest of any capital city in the nation and the cost of building a new home rose by almost 16 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
Since many contracts were signed to qualify for the 2020 stimulus grants, the costs of building houses has risen sharply and is pushing many builders and new home buyers to the financial brink.

 

[over9k]

P/E and peg stopped looking like it's a crypto valuation yet?

Well maybe I'll just do some short term swings.

As if not just buy NRGU and SQQQ...

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and a pertinent view from a foreign resident inside what is quickly re-establishing itself as the Hermit Kingdom.

China's Leadership Is Prisoner of Its Own Narrative

For now, China is not getting out of the corner the president has maneuvered the country into. They are prisoners of their own narrative. It’s rather tragic: China was the first to get into the pandemic, and it’s the last to get out. And in the meantime, they’ve been telling the whole world that they’re the best.

«China's Leadership Is Prisoner of Its Own Narrative» | The Market

Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, is concerned about the state of the world’s second largest economy. The Zero Covid policy has led the country into a dead end.

themarket.ch

Lockdowns, logged ports, shrinking GDP numbers, fear of sanctions over Russia, paralysis until Xi gets his third term

 

[Dona Ferentes]

China's Leadership Is Prisoner of Its Own Narrative

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Quanta Shanghai Manufacturing City would seem like an ideal site to implement China's "closed-loop" management system to prevent the spread of COVID that requires staff to live and work on-site in a secure bubble.

Sprawled over land the size of 20 football fields, the campus houses factories, living quarters for 40,000 workers, some living 12 per room, and even a supermarket.

But as COVID-19 breeched Quanta's defences, the system broke down into chaos on Thursday.

Videos posted online showed more than a hundred Quanta workers physically overwhelming security guards in hazmat suits and vaulting over factory gates to escape being trapped inside the factory amid rumours that workers on the floor that day tested positive for COVID.

The turmoil at Quanta underscores the struggles Shanghai faces to get its factories, many of them key links in global supply chains, back up to speed even as much of the city of 25 million remains locked down under China's "dynamic-zero" COVID policy.

Taiwan-based Quanta puts together about three-quarters of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s global MacBook production and also manufactures computer circuit boards for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). ....

Chaos at Apple supplier Quanta shows strains of Shanghai COVID lockdown By Reuters

Chaos at Apple supplier Quanta shows strains of Shanghai COVID lockdown

au.investing.com

...... it was never going to work. As the story ends "What a mess".

 

[moXJO]

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Quanta Shanghai Manufacturing City would seem like an ideal site to implement China's "closed-loop" management system to prevent the spread of COVID that requires staff to live and work on-site in a secure bubble.

Sprawled over land the size of 20 football fields, the campus houses factories, living quarters for 40,000 workers, some living 12 per room, and even a supermarket.

But as COVID-19 breeched Quanta's defences, the system broke down into chaos on Thursday.

Videos posted online showed more than a hundred Quanta workers physically overwhelming security guards in hazmat suits and vaulting over factory gates to escape being trapped inside the factory amid rumours that workers on the floor that day tested positive for COVID.

The turmoil at Quanta underscores the struggles Shanghai faces to get its factories, many of them key links in global supply chains, back up to speed even as much of the city of 25 million remains locked down under China's "dynamic-zero" COVID policy.

Taiwan-based Quanta puts together about three-quarters of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s global MacBook production and also manufactures computer circuit boards for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). ....

Chaos at Apple supplier Quanta shows strains of Shanghai COVID lockdown By Reuters

Chaos at Apple supplier Quanta shows strains of Shanghai COVID lockdown

au.investing.com

...... it was never going to work. As the story ends "What a mess".

It's funnier with video:

 

[over9k]

Alright so we've had some news about lockdowns lifting in china so we see everything back into the green with NDX and R2K running the hardest in anticipation of a supply lift, so the barbell spread is back in play assuming things keep on their path back to normal. Also seen energy plummet and then run on the lockdowns and then lifting of them accordingly.

So everything old is new again.

 

[over9k]

This is also an encouraging sign.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

the Shanghai Automobile Sales Association came out with updated numbers.

“It is estimated that the sales volumes of new cars in the Shanghai auto market in April is about 0 units.”

such exactitude, yet hedging their bets?

 

[qldfrog]

There is no lack of irony with most commentators here in Australia booing the covid 0 policy in China, and recent lockdowns in Shanghai etc.
It seems commonly assumed that all the shortages we have everywhere are due to a sudden fall of oroduction from China.
Well that is the story but may not hold that much truth:
Total exports from China are reaching records, and that's not oil or gas?

 

[qldfrog]

One of the consequences of covid engineered economic crisis is supply of urea
Adding the west embargo with Russia and we are lacking fertilizer and AdBlue worldwide.
Ipl soon to close its factory in brisbane,the situation is critical to say the least with millions starving now,and Sri Lanka collapsed after day dreaming of organic farming
And we ensure,helped with their anc that we do our part

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07...t-construction-pause-rock-art-fears/101258864

 

[qldfrog]

Following an exchange with @rcw1 who was mentioning and i quote:
"Built resilience and loyalty to unprecedented levels btw employer and employee - image that ... most employees stayed and did the job to this day increasing productivity and performance, a united front to this very day;" i have a VERY different experience.
We have the great resignation movement still going on https://panatimes.com/why-workers-just-won-t-stop-quitting
and i learnt today about quiet quiting..

3 millennials on their experience of quiet quitting: ‘I'm not going to overwork myself anymore’

Quiet quitting, a term newly in the zeitgeist of the American work lingo, describes the experience of doing your job without going above and beyond.

www.cnbc.com

 

[againsthegrain]

Following an exchange with @rcw1 who was mentioning and i quote:
"Built resilience and loyalty to unprecedented levels btw employer and employee - image that ... most employees stayed and did the job to this day increasing productivity and performance, a united front to this very day;" i have a VERY different experience.
We have the great resignation movement still going on https://panatimes.com/why-workers-just-won-t-stop-quitting
and i learnt today about quiet quiting..

3 millennials on their experience of quiet quitting: ‘I'm not going to overwork myself anymore’

Quiet quitting, a term newly in the zeitgeist of the American work lingo, describes the experience of doing your job without going above and beyond.

www.cnbc.com

I think this is a result of a totally inefficient system, its been happening for years the bucket is literally ready to burst and spill the fat. We need to stop patching it up. Let them all quit and starve, let the fake businesses go bust and the strong emerge from the ashes

 

[divs4ever]

Following an exchange with @rcw1 who was mentioning and i quote:
"Built resilience and loyalty to unprecedented levels btw employer and employee - image that ... most employees stayed and did the job to this day increasing productivity and performance, a united front to this very day;" i have a VERY different experience.
We have the great resignation movement still going on https://panatimes.com/why-workers-just-won-t-stop-quitting
and i learnt today about quiet quiting..

3 millennials on their experience of quiet quitting: ‘I'm not going to overwork myself anymore’

Quiet quitting, a term newly in the zeitgeist of the American work lingo, describes the experience of doing your job without going above and beyond.

www.cnbc.com

from my ( limited ) interactions with the working people many are actively engaged in 'side-hustles' ( 'cos the main job doesn't fully cover the bills ) OR are pursuing extra educational qualifications ( and once qualified looking to move on to a better career )

considering my experiences in the workplace ( when i was still working ) i find it laughable that SOME businesses expect any loyalty at all ( please note that excludes the very small businesses where the boss/owner turns up to work everyday beside you )

 

[divs4ever]

I think this is a result of a totally inefficient system, its been happening for years the bucket is literally ready to burst and spill the fat. We need to stop patching it up. Let them all quit and starve, let the fake businesses go bust and the strong emerge from the ashes

that would have a large number of 'megacorps ' implode

now that would suit me fine ( despite the hit to the portfolio value )

but the disruption resulting would cause other issues , are there enough ( mentally ) tough people willing to take on the needed tasks left in this society

 

[qldfrog]

Obviously, the west has built resilience, and brought manufacturing back , shorten distribution chains, etc etc..that is what we are told
Well guess what, worse now than pre COVID..who would have guessed?
I see a replay of the EU gas debacle when China put the CCP flag on Taipei...

 

[Smurf1976]

Obviously, the west has built resilience, and brought manufacturing back , shorten distribution chains, etc etc..that is what we are told

To actually achieve that is a generational thing.

Even just building this sort of thing can take 5 years, and that's after all the finances and so on are in place and it's ready to start physical work on site.

Then there's the reality that to set up manufacturing of x, you first need to have set up manufacturing of y and to set up y you first need need to set up z.

It took ~40 years to dismantle and it'll take much the same time to rebuild realistically.