Coronavirus vaccine news

[Knobby22]

Analyst Casey Briggs has had a fascinating discussion with the ABC that's worth watching. Sorry, no way to link but look under https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08...-conference-nsw-victoria-queensland/100400652 and scroll down.

If NSW gets to 50% vaccination in the western suburbs then, with the lockdown measures, we should see a downturn and thanks to the residents they are getting there quickly. Good on them. Today was looking better.

Also of interest in the interview was the States that doing well, Tazzy and Canberra. NSW is catching up. Victoria now lagging. SA next, Queensland next and WA by far the lowest as everyone is pretty safe there at present.

I am really with the Prime Minister that we open up completely at 80% and partially open at 70% vaccination.
I understand QLD and WA state Premiers being cautious due to the levels in NSW and keeping the border up and maybe they have a point, particularly if they are lagging in the vaccination rates.

Maybe at 70% we can have a relaxed lockdown where there are certain rules to prevent the spread, such as theatres open to the vaccinated.
At 80% it should be no rules whatsoever. I think it can be seen from the UK experience that once you have substantial vaccination, especially of the older population, then deaths become much less of an issue and are generally among the older (60+)anti-vaxers who in the main are for opening up anyway and seeing how it goes. About 1/3 of 20-30 year olds remain unvaccinated in the UK. Vaccination rates in older age groups are very high befitting the risk.

 

[sptrawler]

Those early up takers, can get into some really new tech.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

From the article:
A world-first trial on a possible “next-generation” Covid-19 vaccine will soon begin in Queensland, with scientists hoping they will be able to provide better protection against the virus.
The University of Sunshine Coast clinical trials of the virus-like particle vaccine produced by American company Icosavax will be the first in the world.

If effective, this type of vaccine could be used to treat new coronavirus strains as they emerge.
Unlike the vaccines used in Australia at the moment, this potential new type of vaccine contains no genetic material; rather the virus-like particles display multiple copies of the protective antigens in a manner that closely resembles the virus.
The study aims to assess the safety and ability of the VLP vaccine to generate good immune response in two groups – the first group who have never had Covid-19 nor received a Covid-19 vaccine, while the second group will be made up of participants who have been fully vaccinated.

The study, to be conducted at Sippy Downs and Morayfield locations, requires healthy participants aged between 18 and 69.

 

[rederob]

My point is as I said, the media is presenting "expert" data as "facts", when they are omitting where the data is derived from, is the data derived from overseas information, if so which country?

Expert data are facts - so it really does not matter who presents them.
I have no idea what else you mean because you have been consistently confused about opinions and facts,

But let's be honest, don't let the truth get in the way of media "facts", or a good story.

Facts are always facts, and you just can't work that out

Why were they so hesitant and only applied recently?

They applied in May and June and I know a few checked last week to see if there was any change.

Your opinion, many are still trying to get back to Australia and many have come to Australia, to ride out the virus, due to our excellent record.

Given that Scomo has botched covid quarantine responsibilities - the view of many State Premiers - and failed to achieve stated rollout targets, it's most likely hospitalisations and deaths would be lower had a more competent person been in charge. From the outset in 2020 there was a massive spat between the feds and NSW government followed by an inquiry into the release of cruise line passengers at Sydney who were suffering covid.
Aged Care, which has always been a federal responsibility, contributes most deaths to date.
Scomo's track record with State Premiers has been a remarkable failure: yes, it's my opinion but widely shared:
"The vaccination rollout had a 57-40 dissatisfied rating (50-46 satisfied in late June, 53-43 satisfied in April)."

 

[moXJO]

Pfizer passed fda approval.
It has been rigorously tested and short term effects are now known.

 

[sptrawler]

It is good to see Bill Shorten is supporting Morrisons call, on the 80% target, despite the expert suggesting 100' s of thousands will die.

 

[sptrawler]

Expert data are facts - so it really does not matter who presents them.
I have no idea what else you mean because you have been consistently confused about opinions and facts,

Well that's it then, somewhere between 25,000 and 30,000 deaths coming up, according to the economist's facts.

Facts are always facts, and you just can't work that out

I never said facts weren't facts, I said facts are included or omitted, to suit the presenters agenda.

They applied in May and June and I know a few checked last week to see if there was any change.

Well my wife and I applied in July, at our local suburban doctors and received the vaccine a few days later. Obviously you now people who have difficulties. I can only go off personal experience, only one of my four children have had the vaccine, but that is due to personal choice.

Given that Scomo has botched covid quarantine responsibilities - the view of many State Premiers - and failed to achieve stated rollout targets, it's most likely hospitalisations and deaths would be lower had a more competent person been in charge. From the outset in 2020 there was a massive spat between the feds and NSW government followed by an inquiry into the release of cruise line passengers at Sydney who were suffering covid.
Aged Care, which has always been a federal responsibility, contributes most deaths to date.
Scomo's track record with State Premiers has been a remarkable failure: yes, it's my opinion but widely shared:
"The vaccination rollout had a 57-40 dissatisfied rating (50-46 satisfied in late June, 53-43 satisfied in April)."

Well going by the "facts" as you see them, the death toll is going to spiral out of control soon.

 

[IFocus]

Analyst Casey Briggs has had a fascinating discussion with the ABC that's worth watching. Sorry, no way to link but look under https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08...-conference-nsw-victoria-queensland/100400652 and scroll down.

If NSW gets to 50% vaccination in the western suburbs then, with the lockdown measures, we should see a downturn and thanks to the residents they are getting there quickly. Good on them. Today was looking better.

Also of interest in the interview was the States that doing well, Tazzy and Canberra. NSW is catching up. Victoria now lagging. SA next, Queensland next and WA by far the lowest as everyone is pretty safe there at present.

I am really with the Prime Minister that we open up completely at 80% and partially open at 70% vaccination.
I understand QLD and WA state Premiers being cautious due to the levels in NSW and keeping the border up and maybe they have a point, particularly if they are lagging in the vaccination rates.

Maybe at 70% we can have a relaxed lockdown where there are certain rules to prevent the spread, such as theatres open to the vaccinated.
At 80% it should be no rules whatsoever. I think it can be seen from the UK experience that once you have substantial vaccination, especially of the older population, then deaths become much less of an issue and are generally among the older (60+)anti-vaxers who in the main are for opening up anyway and seeing how it goes. About 1/3 of 20-30 year olds remain unvaccinated in the UK. Vaccination rates in older age groups are very high befitting the risk.

View attachment 129379

Morrison is to a degree quoting dogma and being selective with the modelling in the end the state premiers will wear the COVID train should it all go pear shape as in the current situation in NSW.

It will I suspect just come down to the hospitalization rates and I am not sure they have a real handle on what that looks like once you let COVID run through the population.

What will the variant be at the time, speed of infections through the population, what age groups remain un vaccinated, will it damage children more so (new variant s )what the numbers are for long COVID.

Resections will remain what they are who knows?

 

[sptrawler]

Morrison is to a degree quoting dogma and being selective with the modelling in the end the state premiers will wear the COVID train should it all go pear shape as in the current situation in NSW.

It will I suspect just come down to the hospitalization rates and I am not sure they have a real handle on what that looks like once you let COVID run through the population.

What will the variant be at the time, speed of infections through the population, what age groups remain un vaccinated, will it damage children more so (new variant s )what the numbers are for long COVID.

Resections will remain what they are who knows?

They could very well reverse the decision, if as you say another strain eventuates or numbers sky rocket, as McGowan says the States will have the final say.
Morrison is just worried about the monetary support, that the Feds have to stump up, when the States close down.
I don't think anything will be set in stone, the amount of money that has been thrown at this, would make it silly to undo it all now.

 

[sptrawler]

The Prime Minister’s plan to reopen the country at a 70-80 per cent vaccination rate and treat the Delta variant “like the flu” has been slammed as dangerous and reckless by some of the nation’s top health and economic researchers.
According to modelling from the Australian National University, if Scott Morrison’s current coronavirus plan proceeds, tens of thousands Australians will likely die and hundreds of thousands will likely develop cases of long Covid.

“We found substantial morbidity and mortality is likely to occur if the Australian government sticks to the national plan,” ANU economics professor and study co-author Quentin Grafton said.

If Australia reopens with 70 per cent of Australians aged over 16 fully vaccinated, there could eventually be 6.9 million cases of Covid-19, 154,000 hospitalisations, and 29,000 fatalities, Professor Grafton said.

“We simply can’t afford to do that, both in terms of lives and long-term illness from Covid,” he said.
And even if the PM waits until 80 per cent of the adult population are vaccinated to open up, thousands of lives will still be destroyed, according to the modelling.

“Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the national plan, there could be approximately 25,000 fatalities and some 270,000 cases of long Covid,” Professor Grafton said.
“The consequences of prematurely and fully relaxing public health measures to suppress Covid-19, even after vaccinating 80 per cent of adults, would likely be irreversible, and unacceptable to many Australians,” study co-author and University of Western Australia senior research officer Zoë Hyde echoed.

“It’s simply too dangerous to treat Covid-19 like the flu,” Dr Hyde said.

Well fortunately for us, in another paper, on the same day, we have a group of different experts saying the "facts" support the 80% position.
Is there any wonder people are confused, there are more experts than you can poke a stick at, saying opposite things.
So many "facts", so much data, it does your head in.?

‘Living with COVID’ could end up two very different ways

When we try to imagine what “living with COVID” will look like, we need to realise that there are two very different “living with COVID” worlds.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:
A recent Grattan Institute report showed that, with more than 80 per cent of the whole population vaccinated, we could open up our borders and live with COVID without lockdowns.
(Grattan modelling shows that once 80 per cent of the population is vaccinated – and 95 per cent of the most vulnerable, including the over-70s – Australia can safety begin to ‘live with COVID’.

At 80 per cent, COVID would be in the community but severe cases would be rare.)

Living in this world would essentially involve a return to a pre-COVID life – stranded Australians could return, state borders would always be open, and vaccinated tourists and international students would be able to fly into Australia without quarantine.

In this world, even if the virus spread into the population, it would peter out naturally. The virus would still infect people, but the vaccine would protect them from hospitalisation and death.
This is a world of living with COVID safely.

 

[IFocus]

Norman Swan went through the numbers today, 80% vaccination rate that they are talking about isn't the whole population, its more like 60% (I think he said) leaving 40% unvaccinated (kids etc).

Given 50% infection rate among the vaccinated (Delta) but low hospitalisation rates however still infections' and passing it on that leaves unvaccinated totally exposed to disease.

I think this is where the argument starts as to what happens then?

 

[moXJO]

Norman Swan went through the numbers today, 80% vaccination rate that they are talking about isn't the whole population, its more like 60% (I think he said) leaving 40% unvaccinated (kids etc).

Given 50% infection rate among the vaccinated (Delta) but low hospitalisation rates however still infections' and passing it on that leaves unvaccinated totally exposed to disease.

I think this is where the argument starts as to what happens then?

Kids have very low rates of hospitalisation and lower rates of death. Not sure they need a jab at this stage.

 

[Knobby22]

Norman Swan went through the numbers today, 80% vaccination rate that they are talking about isn't the whole population, its more like 60% (I think he said) leaving 40% unvaccinated (kids etc).

Given 50% infection rate among the vaccinated (Delta) but low hospitalisation rates however still infections' and passing it on that leaves unvaccinated totally exposed to disease.

I think this is where the argument starts as to what happens then?

Yes, I think the plan at present is not to immunise (or count) below 15 years old at present.
Truth is all we can achieve is offering some protection to those who want it and let the virus become endemic. We have to strike a balance. I think we need to see more information about who is getting sick.

At least we can take heart with what has happened in the UK. I would like to see a 90% rate for those over 30 and maybe 75% for those between 15 and 30 before we opened up. Even kids though are getting quite sick now. Some are in hospital so if we get this wrong we will be overwhelmed.

We even have an infant in hospital in Victoria.

Infant among COVID-19 cases hospitalised in Melbourne

Victorian health authorities have revealed almost one fifth of the active coronavirus cases in the state are aged under 10 and a baby is among the COVID-19 patients receiving care in hospital.

www.skynews.com.au

 

[rederob]

Well fortunately for us, in another paper, on the same day, we have a group of different experts saying the "facts" support the 80% position.
Is there any wonder people are confused, there are more experts than you can poke a stick at, saying opposite things.
So many "facts", so much data, it does your head in.?

‘Living with COVID’ could end up two very different ways

When we try to imagine what “living with COVID” will look like, we need to realise that there are two very different “living with COVID” worlds.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:
A recent Grattan Institute report showed that, with more than 80 per cent of the whole population vaccinated, we could open up our borders and live with COVID without lockdowns.
(Grattan modelling shows that once 80 per cent of the population is vaccinated – and 95 per cent of the most vulnerable, including the over-70s – Australia can safety begin to ‘live with COVID’.

At 80 per cent, COVID would be in the community but severe cases would be rare.)

Living in this world would essentially involve a return to a pre-COVID life – stranded Australians could return, state borders would always be open, and vaccinated tourists and international students would be able to fly into Australia without quarantine.

In this world, even if the virus spread into the population, it would peter out naturally. The virus would still infect people, but the vaccine would protect them from hospitalisation and death.
This is a world of living with COVID safely.

Models are not facts!
However, they are consistent with everything we know about herd immunity and have been reworked to account for targeted rollout strategies, treatment regimes (hospital capacity), infection rates (variants) and death rates.
The real world has examples of what's possible.
China controlled the virus after the initial outbreak and, through mass testing any outbreaks plus extensive use of technology, has been largely covid free since. China's vaccination rate was modest until April 2021 before ramping up.
England fluffed initial mitigation but through its NHS managed by Sir Simon Stevens put in place an exemplary vaccination strategy which was also aided by low hesitancy. And, like Israel which ran an early vaccination race, these nations have been returning to the new normal.
Australia is a bit like China except over 4 months behind.

Note that the above percentages are based on total population, so actually understate the share of those who are eligible for vaccination.
BTW, we could holiday in the Seychelles if our government let us travel. So parts of the world that got in early with vaccines are now reaping the benefits.

 

[SirRumpole]

And the only way to ensure that the population moves in the right direction health wise would be to implement draconian measures to push them to be healthier. Perhaps banning fast foods, forcing participation in sports in schools, banning cigarettes completely and increasing the cost of alcohol so that it becomes prohibitively expensive.

Could you imagine the outcry from people of your ilk who call forced mask wearing in certain locations a form of tyranny.

Sugar and fat taxes ?

I wouldn't call that 'draconian' , people still have a choice, only they pay more for bad choices.

 

[IFocus]

Yes, I think the plan at present is not to immunise (or count) below 15 years old at present.
Truth is all we can achieve is offering some protection to those who want it and let the virus become endemic. We have to strike a balance. I think we need to see more information about who is getting sick.

At least we can take heart with what has happened in the UK. I would like to see a 90% rate for those over 30 and maybe 75% for those between 15 and 30 before we opened up. Even kids though are getting quite sick now. Some are in hospital so if we get this wrong we will be overwhelmed.

We even have an infant in hospital in Victoria.

Infant among COVID-19 cases hospitalised in Melbourne

Victorian health authorities have revealed almost one fifth of the active coronavirus cases in the state are aged under 10 and a baby is among the COVID-19 patients receiving care in hospital.

www.skynews.com.au

It is going to be a difficult time for politicians all round, Federal Government wanting to stop the out going cash flow (lucky they passed those tax cuts) international boarder openings (when) and will the new quarantine facilities be big enough (no where near) and an election looming.

State Premiers, NT/ACT Ministers, (this is where dead bodies hit the morgue) have to managed over taxed hospitals already in over flow and explain the new normal is restrictions and masks for ever.

Note in the US it looking like millions may not work again due to long COVID.

All this and I know some one who stills says its just the flu and a massive power grab to tell us all what to do?

 

[Knobby22]

It is going to be a difficult time for politicians all round, Federal Government wanting to stop the out going cash flow (lucky they passed those tax cuts) international boarder openings (when) and will the new quarantine facilities be big enough (no where near) and an election looming.

State Premiers, NT/ACT Ministers, (this is where dead bodies hit the morgue) have to managed over taxed hospitals already in over flow and explain the new normal is restrictions and masks for ever.

Note in the US it looking like millions may not work again due to long COVID.

All this and I know some one who stills says its just the flu and a massive power grab to tell us all what to do?

I am with you
It isn't going to be easy for any politician.

It is upsetting that some people are so gullible, so easily led and willing to believe in nonsense.

Some will be led, like the sheep they are, to their death or suffer long covid for the rest of their lifetimes.

I take heart that 87% of Australians support lockdowns as the only realistic response to the pandemic.

Most people have good critical faculties.

I am tired of the lockdowns in Melbourne and my youngest is in his final year of school has missed much in sport, socials etc.
Can't wait to get through this.

 

[rederob]

To help @sptrawler understand what modelling is about, I thought this might help.
First, Doherty Modelling is the basis as it has been endorsed by National Cabinet.
It's a 4 phase plan:

The modelling is based on specified assumptions and a wide range of scenarios, all having independent margins of error.
Key to it is the starting point (onset), which is zero infections at day one, and a nominated percentage of the eligible population being vaccinated at that date, with vaccinations continuing thereafter in order to increase the population share.
Below are some charts that map out possible death outcomes:

It's impossible to derive a most probable number of deaths from this modelling as there are too many variables. The most important of these is that we simply do not know how many will die before onset against any of the scenarios.
What the modelling makes clear is that without the mitigation strategies presently in place (particularly lockdowns) Delta has the potential wreak havoc.

 

[IFocus]

I am tired of the lockdowns in Melbourne and my youngest is in his final year of school has missed much in sport, socials etc.
Can't wait to get through this.

Over 200 hundred days of lock down and counting... cannot image how hard that is for the highly social Melbourianins, Malborne is far and away my favorited Australian city to hang out in, place just hums.

Hoping the young bloke goes OK at least he's not alone, must hard to keep him focused on the future.

 

[sptrawler]

To help @sptrawler understand what modelling is about,
It's impossible to derive a most probable number of deaths from this modelling as there are too many variables. The most important of these is that we simply do not know how many will die before onset against any of the scenarios.
What the modelling makes clear is that without the mitigation strategies presently in place (particularly lockdowns) Delta has the potential wreak havoc.

Which is what I alluded to in #998 below. When I was explaining why the article which predicted numbers of deaths, was just sensationalism by the media. An extract below.

If Australia reopens with 70 per cent of Australians aged over 16 fully vaccinated, there could eventually be 6.9 million cases of Covid-19, 154,000 hospitalisations, and 29,000 fatalities, Professor Grafton said.

“We simply can’t afford to do that, both in terms of lives and long-term illness from Covid,” he said.
And even if the PM waits until 80 per cent of the adult population are vaccinated to open up, thousands of lives will still be destroyed, according to the modelling.

“Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the national plan, there could be approximately 25,000 fatalities and some 270,000 cases of long Covid,” Professor Grafton said.

To which I replied"

My point is as I said, the media is presenting "expert" data as "facts", when they are omitting where the data is derived from, is the data derived from overseas information, if so which country? Is their climate the same as ours? As that effects likely outcomes.
Is the general health of the population, where the data is obtained, from similar to ours?
There are a multitude of reference points that need to be compared to ours to derive likely consequences.
Will 70% and 80% vaccination rates be achieved before summer, or mid winter, that will have a bearing, on the "facts".
Or is the article a worst possible scenario? Derived by Professor Grafton, a professor of economics?

Quentin Grafton

researchprofiles.anu.edu.au

But let's be honest, don't let the truth get in the way of media "facts", or a good story. ?

At last you agree. I knew you would finally come round.
Modelling is based on assumptions derived from available data aka facts, as you said.
Quote:
Models use real world data (aka "facts") about covid to derive likely consequences.

 

[wayneL]

FYI