Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

bellenuit said:

That is not the issue Bas. Yes, they took drastic action while simultaneously encouraging other countries to be lax about their response to the crisis when it came to international travel. There is no way one could justify them locking down Wuhan (and some other cities) with almost no contact allowed with others not in their unit because of the danger it posed, while denouncing other countries from not allowing the free movement of Chinese citizens in and out of their country. At that point in time they knew the virus was highly infectious and dangerous.

One possible reason touted was that having being too late to respond themselves to the initial outbreak, they decided to intentionally cause it to spread to other countries so that the CCP could obfuscate the origins of the virus (and we know that they tried to blame the US). Also being in a better position to control their own population due to their political system, they would also be able to show how much better they were in controlling the virus that the West. This was all about protecting the CCP.

But you still haven't answered the question I posed. Why did they condemn other countries from stopping travel to and from China while at the same time imposing the most stringent isolation regime on its own people?

Their initial responses were not mistakes, but an attempted cover up. This is well documented, as moXJO has shown. When they condemned other countries from stopping China travel, the severity of the virus was well known by them, hence their lockdown.

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rederob said:

You don't do much checking do you!
He lifted his article from here, and it was under the unbiased heading of:
The Comprehensive Timeline of China’s COVID-19 Lies

So I will look at another claim it made given it stuffed up the very first point:

"December 25: Chinese medical staff in two hospitals in Wuhan are suspected of contracting viral pneumonia and are quarantined. This is additional strong evidence of human-to-human transmission."
​

And here's the evidence it relied on:

"Around December 25, 2019 , I heard that two hospitals in Wuhan had medical personnel suspected of being infected with unexplained viral pneumonia , and were isolated, including those in the respiratory department. I realized at the time that the situation might not be simple."​

While it is not impossible this happened, especially the quarantining of other patients, given we know a doctor had diagnosed a SARS-like virus, it remains hearsay. To claim hearsay is "additional strong evidence of human-to-human transmission" is ambitious.

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China Youth Daily, China Youth Daily reporter Wang Jiaxing This is a self-report by a first-line doctor who is committed to fighting new pneumonia. She experienced the panic of the hospital where she was at the beginning of the epidemic, and the most extraordinary New Year's Eve in her 31 years of medical treatment. In her story, we can see the harsh truth of that special period, and we can also see the adherence of the frontline medical staff to professional responsibility. These are worth remembering. With her consent, we disclosed her real name: Director Lu Xiaohong, Department of Gastroenterology, Wuhan Fifth Hospital. I wish her and her colleagues health and safety, and wish the hospital's order and guarantee to be on track as soon as possible. She said that on December 25, 2019, she heard that there were suspected infections by medical staff; On January 2, 2020, she suggested that the hospital set up a fever clinic; From January 6th, her hospital received many suspected cases; On January 20th, she sent a text message to the principal of a nearby high school to leave the senior high school students who planned to make up classes; She also said that the video of doctors crying in the office on New Year's Eve was true. Her colleague, an old director in her 70s, sent a text message saying that she would come back to work at any time if necessary. 1 Around December 25, 2019, I heard that two hospitals in Wuhan had medical personnel suspected of being infected with unexplained viral pneumonia, and were isolated, including those in the respiratory department. I realized at the time that the situation might not be simple. In internal medicine, especially in the respiratory department, it is impossible not to know how to protect against viral pneumonia. They themselves are the most cautious and most protective of the medical staff. Even they are infected, indicating that the contagion may be very strong. Viral pneumonia occurs every year, but when I found out about it with my colleagues, I found that the virus was different this time. Some people did not cough or have a fever. Routine symptoms were all good, but the condition of lung CT films was very bad. At that time, I made my colleagues pay attention and joked that I should buy a mask. Later, the more I thought about it, the more I felt that something was wrong. When I participated in the hospital work report on the afternoon of January 2, 2020, I couldn't help but make suggestions with the hospital leaders. Should I formally open the hot clinic and establish standardized quarantine and guided procedures . Originally, the flu season also arrived, and the emergency department was under great pressure. The leader agreed on the spot. Previously, the fever clinic was attached to the outpatient clinic, and there was a possibility of cross-infection between patients. As far as I know, there are not a few hospitals in Wuhan that do not open hot clinics alone, because there is no profit for hot clinics and outpatient clinics. The next afternoon, the hospital received a request from the superior to not only set up a fever clinic, but also set up a fever ward to treat patients with unknown pneumonia. At 3 pm on January 28, the outpatient hall of Wuhan Fifth Hospital Our hospital is not a hospital for infectious diseases and does not have the conditions for isolation. At that time, a floor was freed up and we worked overnight to renovate for isolation. Around January 6th, we received two or three cases of suspected infection from the referral and a family of many suspected cases. In fact, from January 6th, our outpatient and emergency departments have received many suspected cases. On the 10th, we can no longer see the emergency department; the respiratory ward is also full, I estimate that two-thirds of them are viruses In order to avoid cross infection, non-viral pneumonia is no longer sent to the respiratory ward. In addition, there are many patients with unexplained fever who enter the gastroenterology, nephrology, cardiovascular department. After January 10, the suspected patient can only be admitted to other wards. But during this period, only the medical staff in the fever wards now wear protective clothing, and other departments, including the respiratory department, only wear white coats and general medical masks. In retrospect, it may be because the protection is not in place, and these patients can move around, resulting in the spread of the epidemic. Later, the news released by the disease control departments of various regions showed that many of the later diagnosed patients were active in Wuhan around January 10th. But at the time, the patients, medical staff, and even the medical profession did not think that this was a very serious matter, and they did not expect a blowout to happen. Around January 18th, I heard that the medical staff at the Wuhan Union Hospital had started to wear protective clothing, and they also vacated a building to treat fever patients. I realized that the situation may be severe. I urge everyone not to go around, suggest zone management and open electronic meetings, but at that time, everyone did not take it seriously. Medical staff guiding the order Monday, January 20, at 7 a.m. that morning, I sent a text message to the principal of a nearby high school to inform me that the situation was wrong and quickly took a holiday. The students in the third year of the school originally planned to continue to make up classes, and the principal listened to my words and immediately went on vacation. That night, CCTV broadcasted an interview with Zhong Nanshan, and we were convinced that the virus could be passed on from person to person. I realized that we underestimated the enemy. 2 In fact, I understand that this disease is not earlier than everyone, and I also see the confirmed information from the news. We started training for viral pneumonia on January 3rd, but no one said it was new, but just told everyone to note that this pneumonia may be a different disease than before, but at that time I did not know it was a new coronavirus pneumonia. All along, our supplies are in short supply, with less than 100 sets of protective clothing in stock. On January 21, we received a notice that the hospital should be emptied before 6 pm on the 23rd, and only fever patients would be accepted. As a frontline doctor, I was involved in the prevention and control of SARS in 2003, bird flu in 2009, and influenza A in 2012. I have experience in the prevention and treatment of respiratory infectious diseases, so I also participated in the transformation of hospital wards. We are really too short of equipment. Normally every winter flu season, heart monitors, ventilators, and oxygen oximeters are very nervous, and now it is not enough. We don't even have hooks for infusion. At 5:30 in the evening on the 22nd, the leader suddenly asked us to be consulted in advance. But at this time, the contaminated area, semi-contaminated area, and clean area are only designed, and the entire system has not yet had time to debug. Moreover, we do not have protective clothing, N95 masks and goggles. I vehemently rejected leadership. I said that if the protective equipment was not in place, you wouldn't be allowed to work, otherwise it would mean "stunning" in front of the virus. Later, a head nurse helped us borrow 7 sets of protective clothing from other departments before we started working, but there is still no N95 mask. We can only wear double or triple medical surgical masks. It stands to reason that this does not meet the specifications, but we have no way. After starting the consultation, the black crowd rushed into the outpatient department. The entire outpatient department is as messy as a vegetable market. The patients whispered to each other, many of them brought their families, and some people recorded videos, blaming us for not isolating them, and feeling that we were infected with us. In the emergency department, 10 infusions were transferred at a time, but everyone asked to call themselves first. This batch has not been processed, and the next batch comes again. Throughout the night, the nurse did not stop the injection. When one was done, the patient took the bottle to find a stool. As a result, some patients were still dissatisfied and scolded, and asked the nurse to take them to their seats. Because the goggles are a bit foggy, the nurse should remove the goggles during the injection. The nurse should have worn a mask so that she could see clearly. But we still don't have a mask. On the second day, the outpatient department was directly packed with people, and there was no place for the station. How many cross-infections would be necessary. The hospital does not have the power to manage the order, these patients go around. According to rough statistics, it takes 4 hours to see a doctor and 4 hours to wait for a CT scan of the lungs. I am very afraid of trouble. Some patients are really pitiful, some are very serious, family members cry for help, but we have no hospital beds and cannot be admitted. A doctor told me that almost all she sent to the infusions that day were "viral lungs." In the CT film, the lungs are like cotton wool, and the youngest is only 30 years old. But we really have no capacity for admission. Waiting for them to go home after injections will cause more infections. A CT scan of the lungs of a suspected patient, the lungs are basically "white" I learned later that on the evening of January 22, two thirds of the patients had been seen in other hospitals. However, many hospitals no longer send and receive fever patients, and guide patients to our designated hospitals for treatment. There were also designated hospitals who received a request from their superiors to start the consultation in advance on the evening of January 22, but the hospital's leaders refused on the grounds that they were not fully prepared. Many doctors are not prepared, have not experienced the treatment of infectious diseases, and have no experience. For example, a surgeon in a very good hospital in Wuhan did not take this patient seriously. He went to the hospital's internal medicine and emergency department. He didn't inform his colleagues about the illness in time, and everyone else followed him. Even the doctors were not alert, and the whole situation was completely passively beaten. 3 When I received our hospital's intention to switch to a designated hospital for fever patients on January 21, a doctor said that the child was still very young and he was very scared and wanted to resign. I understand her very well, and I am also afraid. But for my consideration of her career development, I still advise her to stick to it. I said, I can approve your resignation, but this will leave you a "smudge". In the future, if you go to any unit, you will be regarded as a "destroyer". She did not resign and also experienced the most chaotic scene in the hospital on the evening of January 22 as a first-line doctor. Unexpectedly, after returning home early in the morning, she began to show symptoms of infection. After returning to the hospital for examination, she was considered to be a suspected patient, but the diagnosis was not confirmed because she did not have a kit. I asked her to go home and rest quickly, but she said, "Director, I will find a place to check it. If not, I would like to come back and fight with everyone." I thought at the time, if she was cured, it would only be a pity; She is only in her 20s. In case something goes wrong, how can I survive as her director? How can I compensate a daughter and a mother in this family. This thing made me sad. I was afraid of affecting the military's heart. I hid outside and cried for a long time. We have a doctor, the child is only 7 and a half months old, and could have been home for the Chinese New Year. But after the outbreak, she forcibly cut off the baby's breast milk. Another doctor asked relatives to bring their two children back to their hometown. Her husband, who is also a doctor, had been on the front line for a long time. One night the staff was particularly scarce, and she spent the night in the front line. Considering her health, I did not schedule her class the day after. As a result, after seeing the schedule, she came to me and said that she was on call at any time, and that she should work as often as she wanted. An old director who has retired in his 70s has sent me a text message saying that he can come back to work at any time if necessary. We do not ask for praise, we just ask the patient to be safe, and only ask ourselves to be safe. This is not a pretty word, it is the basic morality of a doctor. To be honest, there is nothing that people here are not afraid of, and they are all afraid of being fake. We know that it is a big polluted area, but they are all on the front line. Everyone chooses to stay in the hotel together and stay in the hospital, just to be courageous and comfort each other. In the last half month, I can only sleep 2 or 3 hours a day because there are too many things to coordinate. I will return as soon as there is news of doctors and nurses on my phone. I just want to let them know that even if I am temporarily out of the hospital, I will be with them. Many people are afraid of infecting their family members and stay in hotels arranged by the hospital in order to stay on call. However, the canteen of the hospital only provides food for the staff on duty, and the medical staff resting in the hotel eats instant noodles and snacks. My home is near the hospital. When I am free after work, I will cook and send them to them. Because I am a high-risk group, I let my son go out to live, but my relatives are not willing to let his son go to their house because they are afraid of getting infected. But my son doesn't know how to cook, he orders noodles every day, or eats instant noodles. On New Year's Eve, I called my relatives and asked her to fry a dish and put it downstairs in the son's residence. The son went down to pick it up, at least for him to have a good meal for the Chinese New Year. I cook food for my doctor at home, but no one cooks food for my son, do you say my heart doesn't hurt? A 4 On New Year's Eve, several videos of doctors crashing and crying in the office circulated online. This is true, there is a doctor in a video from our hospital. In another video, the emotionally calling male doctor is also from our hospital. In fact, due to excessive tension and fatigue, the doctors in each department did not know how many times they cried. Death made me cry. I took over a patient whose lungs were completely fibrotic. I watched her blood oxygen drop from 80 to 70, 60, and fell a little bit. She grabbed your hand and said that the doctor begged you to save me. You said who can bear it when you see this scene as a doctor. We are willing to work hard, but the basic guarantees must be resolved. After taking off the protective clothing, everyone sweats, but the hospital has hot water only for two periods. Once the time is missed, there is no way to take a shower. In the hotel arranged by the hospital, there are only two rooms in one department, which is not enough to sleep at all, and only two people can be packed in one bed. Some medical personnel do not have protective clothing and N95 masks, but can only wear isolation clothing and multi-layer masks There are too many patients, we can't keep our peace of mind, but we must want to let the patients survive. Everyone is racing against Grim Reaper. An emergency doctor asked the equipment department to provide another ventilator, because the previous one had been sent to the ICU after resuscitating a patient. There are too many patients and the scene is chaotic. I once suggested that you can make a questionnaire to tick the patient, set up several sets of prescriptions, and let the doctor check it, which can improve efficiency; there are two doors in the clinic, you can arrange a door to enter, and a door to exit, just like security ; Fever is divided into two areas, one area looks at light heat, the other looks at high fever. But everyone has given up on vacation to get on the front line, and their opinions are too late to be accepted. I understand. In the past few days, the situation has eased a lot. The city ’s new pneumonia prevention and control headquarters has arranged categorical diagnosis and treatment. Some feverish citizens went to the community health service center for screening. The number of outpatients in the hospital decreased a few days ago. At 3 pm on January 28, the patient went to the clinic and took CT scans, which were arranged for one to two hours, but the infusion still had to be arranged for three or four hours. Now the security and cleaning staff are also wearing blue isolation suits, and the hospital is in good order. But we still have no idea. N95 masks are still missing. I don't know if the materials behind can keep up. I started working as a doctor at the age of 21 and became one of the youngest directors of the hospital at the age of 34. I will be 52 years old this year. I sincerely hope that there will be no such experience again, and hope that the hospital management will be better in the future and the prevention and control of infectious diseases will be better. One day before going to work, I told my colleagues that we were going to fight and take care of ourselves. We killed a blood and survived. When the epidemic has passed, we will travel abroad collectively, and I will pay for it alone. I said, as long as I live, it counts. (Mu Hongju also contributed to this article) This article was independently produced by China Youth Daily, first published in China Youth Daily client and headline, and joined the tree project. PS: We are looking for interviewees! Whether you are in Hubei or other areas, whether you are in an urban or rural area, as long as you are a medical worker, patient, patient's family member, public official, medical protection equipment manufacturer who is fighting the epidemic ... as long as you notice and learn something about us Please contact us for clues and situations that are very important in responding to the epidemic. Please let the information flow, not "isolate"! The contact number of the reporter is as follows (WeChat same number, the reporter may be interviewing, yes

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Directly from The Lancet's reference which you linked to it says:
"The symptom onset date of the first patientidentified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases."
So this makes it clear that the first patient admitted with symptoms cannot be the same as the patient who died because it goes on to say:
"The first fatal case, who had continuous exposure to the market, was admitted to hospital because of a 7-day history of fever, cough, and dyspnoea. 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalised in the isolation ward."

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basilio said:

You don't have to be a CCP shrill to recognise that while China made serious mistakes in the first weeks of the CV Virus it very quickly realised how bad the situation was and took drastic steps to bring it under control.
And every country in the world had the opportunity to see how quickly this virus could spread unless stopped in its tracks.

Some countries took the required actions - Taiwan, Singarpre, Korea. Others like the US under Donald Trump invoked magical thinking and routine denial and refused to either prepare its facilities or take serious preventative action.

The result has been a totally foreseeable disaster.

The response by Donald Trump to blame everyone else is also totally foreseeable. He never ever tales teh blame. He always looks for another scapegoat.

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NTD News on March 29, 2020 Beijing time] Why did the CCP virus (Wuhan pneumonia) epidemic out of control? During the two sessions of Hubei and Wuhan, why was the epidemic information that should be released according to law interrupted? During the interruption, what is the epidemic information in Wuhan? Han Fuzheng, a lawyer from Hebei Shuning Law Firm, submitted a “Government Information Disclosure Application” to the National Health and Welfare Committee of the Communist Party of China on February 18 for the above-mentioned doubts, applying for the disclosure of “unexplained pneumonia” (ie, CCP pneumonia) testing Daily newspapers and other content. Recently, the National Health Commission of the Communist Party of China replied to the above-mentioned application, arguing that the information it requested to disclose was "process information." Before the epidemic prevention and control work was completed, information that had not been verified or not finalized was not disclosed. . According to "Southern Metropolis Daily", Han Fuzheng submitted the "Application for Government Information Disclosure" to six departments of the Communist Party of China in February, including the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, the Wuhan Municipal Center for Disease Control, the Hubei Provincial Health Commission, and the Hubei Provincial Control Center, National Health and Health Commission, National Disease Control Center. The content of the application for disclosure includes: from the beginning of December 2019 to January 20, 2020, the Wuhan Municipal Committee received "an unexplained group disease or unexplained pneumonia" or "unknown pneumonia" or "crown" "Virus pneumonia" test daily report and special report and other content and report time; the results of the research and judgments obtained by the three batches of expert groups; the epidemic prevention and control recommendations put forward by the National Disease Control Center of the Communist Party of China and other five contents. Han Fuzheng said that the basis for his mention of government information disclosure is Article 27 of the “Regulations on the Disclosure of Government Information of the People ’s Republic of China”: In addition to government information proactively disclosed by administrative agencies, citizens, legal persons or other organizations may 1. Foreign government departments at or above the county level who perform administrative functions in their own names apply for relevant government information. He said, "Based on the right to know and supervision, citizens can apply to the government for information disclosure, and the government should also respond to social concerns." On March 9, the National Health Commission of the Communist Party of China responded to Han Fuzheng ’s application, arguing that the information it requested to be disclosed “was process information such as the exchange of opinions between various departments during the epidemic prevention and control period, and request reports, etc. Before the completion of the control work, unverified or non-final conclusion information will not be disclosed; the application of the specific time is a petition consultation, and will not be processed as a government information disclosure application. " Regarding this reply, Han Fuzheng said, "the statement that" unverified or non-final conclusion information will not be published "is not valid." He emphasized that the information he requested to be disclosed was not "procedural." information". "None of the information I applied for is open for discussion or approval, but has already been formed and cannot be changed. For example, the content reported by Hubei Province to the National Health and Safety Commission is part or all of the facts that have occurred. It is recorded that what has been reported cannot be withdrawn and re-examined and verified again. " Therefore, Han Fuzheng is prepared to file an administrative lawsuit in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Administrative Procedure Law, requesting the authorities to cancel the previous reply and give a new reply, and disclose relevant government information on the content of the application. (Reporter Xiao Jing comprehensive report / responsible editor: Ming Xuan)

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Macquack said:

You have to be joking Frog?

If only, the head of the World Health Organisation was white, he could have saved the world!

What about the white guy who is Health Minister in NSW, and let a ship full of Corona Virus infected passengers just disperse into the night in NSW and then the rest of Australia. Did not hear anyone question his skin colour.

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moXJO said:

It was lifted, I don't have hours to compile a post. Here's the link to the article for December 25 that Rob left out.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IzzCnz4Yr2jEIYZePiu_ow

translated:





These were two separate cases. Not sure if it was a copy and paste error, or the publication error. It looks like publishing error. As they assumed the date of infection of the first guy that died, was around the same time as the first infection.
Regardless, the wet market was shut 1st of Jan. So the date this guy was admitted to hospital is in question for a clearer picture and this is a case already in the spotlight and harder to hide. Unfortunately any data on the date or name is hard to find.
Just found this:
He was taken to Wuhan Puren Hospital on 26 December with a fever and difficulty breathing, and died on 9 January.

His name was Mr Zeng
https://www.nchrd.org/2020/02/what-do-we-know-about-the-coronavirus-victims/
Wei Guixian (possibly patient zero) also caught it early on. And recovered early January. Her family members also caught it.

Now as for the argument. Mine is China hid data and lied. Realistically WHO could do very little at the start but then completely botched it going forward. So they dropped the ball.

Shilling for CCP while good doctors or people of China sacrifice themselves and risk guaranteed punishment deserves contempt.
So yes you lot are CCP shills.

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1. patients with fever as a result of the flu - common this time of year - attend various hospitals for treatment
2. some patients do not respond to antibiotics - the conventional treatment, which can happen, but does not immediately set off alarm bells - you need about a week to be sure of a non-response
3. by mid December at best this number would have been about half a dozen
4. other treatment options would be tried and allowed to run their course
5. we are now talking about the third week of December and a handful of new new cases of non-response would be noticed
6. we know that a doctor noted in his medical records on 25 December that SARS-like symptoms were diagnosed
7. we know that District Health Authorities became aware of a viral pneumonia of unknown cause on 27 December
8. we know that on 28 December these concerns were passed on to Municipal and Provincial Health Authorities and their respective Health Commissions - we are talking about multiple layers of bureaucracy all acting within 24 hours
9. we know that by 29 December field investigations from local Centres of Disease Control (CDC) were being undertaken, leading to the wet market closure a few days later
10. we know that on 30 December the Wuhan CDC advised the China CDC
11. we know that on 31 December China CDC advised the WHO
12. we know on that day the Chinese public were also made aware via 2 reports aired on CCTV and a public accessible web page link to the Wuhan Health Commissions advisory
13. we know this advisory was reported by international media that day and that Taiwan apparently contacted the WHO on the basis of media reports and not the advisory - very strange way of going about it!
14. we know that the WHO took immediate action to learn more and report to member nations
15. we know that on 3 January the US health Department was in direct contact with Chinese health officials about the virus and remained in contact while Trump was making false statements in regard to what was actually being advised to his country

Logique said:

The WHO has real questions to answer:
- Re-opening of the China wet markets - is fine by the WHO
- Blocking of Taiwan's membership on China's say so - is fine by the WHO
- Initial (false) denial of human-to-human transmission - was fine by the WHO

Is it a competent UN agency, or just a China quisling?

4BC 1116: https://www.4bc.com.au/world-health-organisation-supports-reopening-of-chinese-wet-markets/
Exotic animal ‘wet markets’, believed to be the origin of the coronavirus, are reopening in China with the World Health Organisation’s blessing.
The WHO’s decision to support the reopening of wet markets has bolstered speculation the Chinese government has undue influence over the United Nations agency....

CNBC Markets: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-taiwan-lashes-out-at-china-for-blocking-who-access.html
Taipei lashes out at China for blocking Taiwan’s access to the World Health Organization
@HUILENG_TAN ; 6 Feb 2020
Due to Beijing’s objections, Taiwan has been denied [one of the most successful international responses] membership to most international organizations including the WHO — a United Nations agency. Beijing considers Taiwan as part of its territory that must one day be reunified with the mainland and should have no right to participate in international diplomacy...

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• doctors can't find a cure to an unidentifiable viral pneumonia
• they immediately tell the authorities
• the authorities tell the WHO
• the WHO tells the rest of the world there is going to be a pandemic and says all countries should go into a lockdown

sptrawler said:

you wouldn't say he was William Shakespeare.

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The university hopes its creation can aid the state government and influence policy making and ultimately the lifting of restrictions in certain areas earlier than others.

The map provides information on the socio-economic status of people as well as what percentage of the residents of that area are aged over 60.

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rederob said:

So China had no way of knowing about human to human transmission when you claimed it would have.
And all your points are pure speculation, apart from difficult to make sense from.
And because you actually have no evidence you call me a shill.

Your case is that "China hid data and lied" and not once have you shown this is true.
Here are some process steps that make sense of what happened:

1. patients with fever as a result of the flu - common this time of year - attend various hospitals for treatment
2. some patients do not respond to antibiotics - the conventional treatment, which can happen, but does not immediately set off alarm bells - you need about a week to be sure of a non-response
3. by mid December at best this number would have been about half a dozen
4. other treatment options would be tried and allowed to run their course
5. we are now talking about the third week of December and a handful of new new cases of non-response would be noticed
6. we know that a doctor noted in his medical records on 25 December that SARS-like symptoms were diagnosed
7. we know that District Health Authorities became aware of a viral pneumonia of unknown cause on 27 December
8. we know that on 28 December these concerns were passed on to Municipal and Provincial Health Authorities and their respective Health Commissions - we are talking about multiple layers of bureaucracy all acting within 24 hours
9. we know that by 29 December field investigations from local Centres of Disease Control (CDC) were being undertaken, leading to the wet market closure a few days later
10. we know that on 30 December the Wuhan CDC advised the China CDC
11. we know that on 31 December China CDC advised the WHO
12. we know on that day the Chinese public were also made aware via 2 reports aired on CCTV and a public accessible web page link to the Wuhan Health Commissions advisory
13. we know this advisory was reported by international media that day and that Taiwan apparently contacted the WHO on the basis of media reports and not the advisory - very strange way of going about it!
14. we know that the WHO took immediate action to learn more and report to member nations
15. we know that on 3 January the US health Department was in direct contact with Chinese health officials about the virus and remained in contact while Trump was making false statements in regard to what was actually being advised to his country

Much of the diatribe against China is based on hindsight inference and assumes China had perfect knowledge of a new virus from the first time a patient presented. That's not the real world, but makes for a good retrospective kicking of the country, as many here are indulging in.

Medically speaking it would have been difficult for doctors early on to consider that a brand new virus was at play as viral pneumonia cases were an annual problem that time of year. For those who ever watched the TV series House, starring Hugh Laurie, you would have some idea of what needed to happen to know in the first place that this disease was in fact novel. It's not an assessment that comes easy nor quickly. Egos are at play and mistakes happen. And as in House, getting hospital administrators to believe you is not a simple process.

So it took hospital administrators less than a week to be certain their doctors had discovered a virus of unknown etiology, and that needed to act.

Where is data being hidden at this stage, and who is lying?

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As early as Dec. 27, a Guangzhou-based genomics company had sequenced most of the virus from fluid samples from the lung of a 65-year old deliveryman who worked at the seafood market where many of the first cases emerged. The results showed an alarming similarity to the deadly SARS coronavirus that killed nearly 800 people between 2002 and 2003.

Around that time, local doctors sent at least eight other patient samples from hospitals around Wuhan to multiple Chinese genomics companies, including industry heavyweight BGI, as they worked to determine what was behind a growing number of cases of unexplained respiratory disease. The results all pointed to a dangerous SARS-like virus.

That was days before China notified the World Health Organization (WHO) on Dec. 31 about the emergence of an unidentified infectious disease, two weeks before it shared the virus’s genome sequence with the world, and crucially, more than three weeks before Chinese authorities confirmed publicly that the virus was spreading between people.

Concerns about the new disease were initially kept within a small group of medical workers, researchers and officials. On Dec. 30, Dr. Li Wenliang was one of several in Wuhan who sounded the first alarms and released initial evidence online. Li, who was punished for releasing the information, would perish from the disease five weeks later, after contracting it from a patient.

On Jan. 1, after several batches of genome sequence results had been returned to hospitals and submitted to health authorities, an employee of one genomics company received a phone call from an official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission, ordering the company to stop testing samples from Wuhan related to the new disease and destroy all existing samples. The employee spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were told to immediately cease releasing test results and information about the tests, and report any future results to authorities.

Then on Jan. 3, China’s National Health Commission (NHC), the nation’s top health authority, ordered institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing institutions, or to destroy them. The order, which Caixin has seen, did not specify any designated testing institutions.

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China Created a Fail-Safe System to Track Contagions. It Failed.
After SARS, Chinese health officials built an infectious disease reporting system to evade political meddling. But when the coronavirus emerged, so did fears of upsetting Beijing.

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Medical staff checking on a coronavirus patient at the Red Cross hospital in Wuhan, China, in early March.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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By Steven Lee Myers

• March 29, 2020

The alarm system was ready. Scarred by the SARS epidemic that erupted in 2002, China had created an infectious disease reporting system that officials said was world-class: fast, thorough and, just as important, immune from meddling.

Hospitals could input patients’ details into a computer and instantly notify government health authorities in Beijing, where officers are trained to spot and smother contagious outbreaks before they spread.

It didn’t work.

After doctors in Wuhan began treating clusters of patients stricken with a mysterious pneumonia in December, the reporting was supposed to have been automatic. Instead, hospitals deferred to local health officials who, over a political aversion to sharing bad news, withheld information about cases from the national reporting system — keeping Beijing in the dark and delaying the response.

The central health authorities first learned about the outbreak not from the reporting system but after unknown whistle-blowers leaked two internal documents online.
Even after Beijing got involved, local officials set narrow criteria for confirming cases, leaving out information that could have provided clues that the virus was spreading among humans.

Hospitals were ordered to count only patients with a known connection to the source of the outbreak, the seafood market. Doctors also had to have their cases confirmed by bureaucrats before they were reported to higher-ups.

As the United States, Europe and the rest of the world struggle to contain the coronavirus pandemic, China has cast itself as a model, bringing down a raging outbreak to the point where the country has begun to lift the kinds of onerous restrictions on life that are now imposed around the world.

This triumphant narrative obscures the early failures in reporting cases, squandered time that could have been used to slow infections in China before they exploded into a pandemic.

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“According to the rules, this of course should have been reported,” Yang Gonghuan, a retired health care official involved in establishing the direct reporting system, said in an interview. “Of course they should have seized on it, found it, gone to understand it.”

Aggressive action just a week earlier in mid-January could have cut the number of infections by two-thirds, according to a recent study whose authors include an expert from Wuhan’s municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Another study found that if China had moved to control the outbreak three weeks earlier, it might have prevented 95 percent of the country’s cases.


“I regret that back then I didn’t keep screaming out at the top of my voice,” Ai Fen, one of the doctors at Wuhan Central Hospital who spotted cases in December, said in an interview with a Chinese magazine. “I’ve often thought to myself what would have happened if I could wind back time.”

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has sought to move quickly past the early failings and shift attention to the country’s drive to end the outbreak. The Chinese government has been widely castigated for its initial mistakes, which have become a top talking point of President Trump

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rederob said:

For those who have a semblance of sense and read these threads, here's the logic that would be applied to what has happened if you think China and the WHO got it wrong:

• doctors can't find a cure to an unidentifiable viral pneumonia
• they immediately tell the authorities
• the authorities tell the WHO
• the WHO tells the rest of the world there is going to be a pandemic and says all countries should go into a lockdown

That makes sense.
So lets roll this out....
Someone thinks to ask the WHO, "what is the nature of the virus?" and is told they do not know.
Then they ask about transmission and they are told there are not even 50 cases so they don't know.
Then they ask how they know there will be a pandemic and the response is "we need to assume the worst."
Major economies buck up and say "we can't close our borders if you don't know what we need to know."
And WHO say, "what if we are right?"
And they are told "what if you are wrong? You want us to destroy our economies because it's like SARS, and we controlled SARS?"
And then the WHO is told in no uncertain terms that without incontrovertible evidence nations will do nothing.

So, back to the real world.
When China was certain of something, it told the WHO. The WHO did not take the advice as gospel and took action to satisfy itself that the information was reliable.
The WHO bases it's advice on evidence they are able to verify or they are in breach of their charter.
In this matter the WHO have been operating at two distinct levels. The public level lets us hear what they are saying in lay terms. The operational level (the level that Trump has now withdrawn funding from) gets into the nitty gritty of response mechanisms, information and resource sharing.

Rather than focus on solving the problems now facing us, the media and uninformed elements are instead indulging in a retrospective attempt to apportion blame. It was not done when the USA completely mishandled the swine flu in 2009 and hundreds of thousands died across the world. But it's become de rigueur to find a reason to blame China nowadays because there is reshaping of the world order and we remain afraid of the "yellow peril."

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moXJO said:

Regardless, you skipped over a lot. The 1st patient to die and human to human transfer were still well before any announcements was made.

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moXJO said:

You discredited a doctor above account as hearsay.

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moXJO said:

This only makes sense if you ignore everything else that went on. You would have to be blind.
Taiwan acted December. It took to mid to late Jan for anything to be acknowledge from China and WHO.

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rederob said:

You said they knew by mid-December.
It was a blatant lie.
The WHO announced before the first patient died that human to human transfer was possible.
Stop making up stuff as it's tedious dealing with your poorly based claims.
Not only was it hearsay, it was post fact and second hand at that!

"Around December 25, 2019 , I heard that two hospitals in Wuhan had medical personnel suspected of being infected with unexplained viral pneumonia."​

In retrospect this it's easy to make vague claims, and I don't even deny that it could be true - it was 25 December after all!
I reckon quarantining steps would have commenced at least a week earlier as the infectious disease team stays alive by implementing strict safety protocols.
The issue is that at this time they clearly had no idea what they were dealing with as patients were non-responsive to proven treatment regimes.
Rather than indulge in speculation, add some perspective to how real world events occur rather than let baseless assumptions cascade into the world of conspiracy.
I have no doubt that prior to the WHO being notified there would have been administrative missteps made as doctors were conjecturing over and ruling out the nature of possible viral infections causing symptoms that were atypical. But "hindsight" was not a luxury being afforded at that time.
It's one thing to be "unsure" the virus was "unknown" and another to "prove it" to a standard that gave administrators the confidence to pass this knowledge to the highest authorities in the country.

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