Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[rederob]

Next:

December 21: Wuhan doctors begin to notice a “cluster of pneumonia cases with an unknown cause.”

This claim is retrospectively based.

There is a particular way that doctors determine if the nature of pneumonia is not standard. It requires an antibiotic treatment regime to have run its course and be found to be ineffective. At 21 December a maximum of 5 patients met that criteria.

 

[moXJO]

I said I would deal with one thing at a time, so I will look at your first point:Are you serious?
Please take the time to read what was actually written as this claim is definitively wrong.
The Lancet made clear that "No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases."
The person referred to as "his wife, a 53-year-old woman" was actually the wife of the first person to die, not the first person identified on 1 December.

Will the rest be as poorly based?

The first fatal case, who had continuous exposure to the market, was admitted to hospital because of a 7-day history of fever, cough, and dyspnoea. 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalised in the isolation ward.

 

[rederob]

The first fatal case, who had continuous exposure to the market, was admitted to hospital because of a 7-day history of fever, cough, and dyspnoea. 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalised in the isolation ward.

This person died on 10 January. What was the date of wife’s admission?

 

[moXJO]

This person died on 10 January. What was the date of wife’s admission?

5 days after the husband's.

 

[moXJO]

The first case of someone in China suffering from
Covid-19
, the disease caused by the novel
coronavirus
, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point.

By the final day of 2019, the number of confirmed cases had risen to 266, On the first day of 2020 it stood at 381.


Interesting if true. They didn't publish the docs so not really verifiable. But obviously looking at the spread rate over time in other countries it would line up. China is densely populated and no precautions at the time.
Have to remember we have been working of China's figures for most of the above.

 

[bellenuit]

The real pandemic starts the day lockdown ends.

https://centerforinquiry.org/blog/its-the-math-stupid/

 

[Smurf1976]

The real pandemic starts the day lockdown ends.

The scenario they've suggested as one possible outcome is the one I've had in mind for a while now.

A few cases > a lot more cases > panic > lockdowns > number of new cases declines dramatically > a few cases > lockdowns end > a lot more cases...... rinse and repeat.

That's not a good approach in my view but I can see it happening for the reasons stated in your link.

 

[rederob]

The first case of someone in China suffering from
Covid-19
, the disease caused by the novel
coronavirus
, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point.

By the final day of 2019, the number of confirmed cases had risen to 266, On the first day of 2020 it stood at 381.


Interesting if true. They didn't publish the docs so not really verifiable. But obviously looking at the spread rate over time in other countries it would line up. China is densely populated and no precautions at the time.
Have to remember we have been working of China's figures for most of the above.

There is no evidence this is true.
So far I have found nothing credible from four separate points examined.
Please offer a point you believe credible from the dozens posted.

 

[qldfrog]

No point getting involved between the little red book waving minion and common sense.
French is expected to relax lockdown on the 11/05 if slowdown of new sicks is carrying on
nearly 16000 death so far
On restart, masks wearing mandatory in public, and doubtvon school
The French medecine board is opposed to school reopening....
Compare this to Australia....
Masks wearing no school. When you actually face the issue...
Do your own research...

 

[moXJO]

There is no evidence this is true.
So far I have found nothing credible from four separate points examined.
Please offer a point you believe credible from the dozens posted.

The numbers are more credible then the supposed 40-60 China offered up. Look at the first fatality case. He coughed and germed up 7 days before going to hospital. Given that you have a period before symptoms show and you are still infectious. And that he was working in a market.
What would you put the R value at in a completely unprotected situation. The average is R2.2. The first case presented to hospital was November 17. And that's just the one that actually went to hospital.
That's a long time out in public.

 

[rederob]

The numbers are more credible then the supposed 40-60 China offered up. Look at the first fatality case. He coughed and germed up 7 days before going to hospital. Given that you have a period before symptoms show and you are still infectious. And that he was working in a market.
What would you put the R value at in a completely unprotected situation. The average is R2.2. The first case presented to hospital was November 17. And that's just the one that actually went to hospital.
That's a long time out in public.

It seems your case relies on a lot of speculation about what was possible, but remained unproven.
If you want to show that the Chinese lied, then you need to offer substantive evidence.
It is no small matter for any nation to advise the WHO that you know something that you cannot substantiate, and then for the WHO to tell the rest of the world that based on speculation we think "x".
Lay people seem to forget that the very idea of viral pneumonia that does not respond to accepted antibiotic treatment is a huge RED flag, irrespective of where such an event occurred. It was also known to Wuhan Hospital administrators at least by 25 December that a doctor had written on a record that the virus was SARS-like.
I can imagine Wuhan's infectious disease experts were very active beyond anything we will ever read as there are life saving protocols that must be enacted when dealing with unknown viral diseases. I can also imagine that hospital staff seeing these protocols being enacted would be very concerned. It is also natural in our new world of social media that "news" of these precautions could leak out. However none of these aspects of what may have been occurring confirms that the Chinese were hiding definitive evidence of the claims you and others are making.
Based on China's previous attempt to hide SARS for as long as possible and internal repercussions of that event, a lot was now on the line for government officials failing to act transparently.
The one significant failing that I am sure will lead to heads rolling relates to changes in how patients with fever were being assessed, as from January it was (for over a week) reliant on exposure to the Wuhan wet market. That blunder does not change what China was able to definitively prove in their official advice to the WHO.

 

[moXJO]

It seems your case relies on a lot of speculation about what was possible, but remained unproven.
If you want to show that the Chinese lied, then you need to offer substantive evidence.
It is no small matter for any nation to advise the WHO that you know something that you cannot substantiate, and then for the WHO to tell the rest of the world that based on speculation we think "x".
Lay people seem to forget that the very idea of viral pneumonia that does not respond to accepted antibiotic treatment is a huge RED flag, irrespective of where such an event occurred. It was also known to Wuhan Hospital administrators at least by 25 December that a doctor had written on a record that the virus was SARS-like.
I can imagine Wuhan's infectious disease experts were very active beyond anything we will ever read as there are life saving protocols that must be enacted when dealing with unknown viral diseases. I can also imagine that hospital staff seeing these protocols being enacted would be very concerned. It is also natural in our new world of social media that "news" of these precautions could leak out. However none of these aspects of what may have been occurring confirms that the Chinese were hiding definitive evidence of the claims you and others are making.
Based on China's previous attempt to hide SARS for as long as possible and internal repercussions of that event, a lot was now on the line for government officials failing to act transparently.
The one significant failing that I am sure will lead to heads rolling relates to changes in how patients with fever were being assessed, as from January it was (for over a week) reliant on exposure to the Wuhan wet market. That blunder does not change what China was able to definitively prove in their official advice to the WHO.

This argument gets tossed out once doctors are silenced/jailed and tests are halted.
Very little of what I said is speculation. It either happened or the numbers point that way.
If you do the basic numbers a lot of what China says does not add up.

 

[rederob]

Very little of what I said is speculation. It either happened or the numbers point that way.

Almost every claim you have made is speculative.
Please point to one which is rock solid and supports your contentions.
You are not offering substantive evidence.
I keep asking you for it and you link to stuff that is rock bottom.

 

[moXJO]

Almost every claim you have made is speculative.
Please point to one which is rock solid and supports your contentions.
You are not offering substantive evidence.
I keep asking you for it and you link to stuff that is rock bottom.

I even provided supposed non existent letters. Times, dates, studies, modelling.

You on the other hand messed up debunking the first point. And once again the goalposts are shifting.

Let's talk about Tedros. I doubt most posters would know his history.

 

[rederob]

I even provided supposed non existent letters.

I had not seen the letter, but it simply asks about what has been reported.
I showed in this thread why the very first claim in your timeline was absolutely in error.
I responded to a few more points in this thread and there was nothing to hang your hat on.
I checked most of your other points and they were more speculation.
I repeat, you have offered zero definitive evidence to show that China has lied or that the WHO has been complicit.
This will be my last reply to you on this topic unless you have hard evidence rather than the speculation you continue to sprout.

 

[moXJO]

I had not seen the letter, but it simply asks about what has been reported.
I showed in this thread why the very first claim in your timeline was absolutely in error.
I responded to a few more points in this thread and there was nothing to hang your hat on.
I checked most of your other points and they were more speculation.
I repeat, you have offered zero definitive evidence to show that China has lied or that the WHO has been complicit.
This will be my last reply to you on this topic unless you have hard evidence rather than the speculation you continue to sprout.

You cannot in all seriousness say China hasn't lied.
I even showed their track record in previous posts of them fudging figures.

And you didn't show anything. You were guessing dates of infection.

 

[rederob]

You cannot in all seriousness say China hasn't lied.
And you didn't show anything.

You have proved nothing, apart from being good at speculation, and you now deny that the first point in your timeline was wrong!
At least I know why I put you on ignore.

 

[bellenuit]

Ok
Lets start with a timeline:

December 6: According to a study in The Lancet, the symptom onset date of the first patient identified was “Dec 1, 2019 . . . 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalized in the isolation ward.” In other words, as early as the second week of December, Wuhan doctors were finding cases that indicated the virus was spreading from one human to another.

December 21: Wuhan doctors begin to notice a “cluster of pneumonia cases with an unknown cause.”

December 25: Chinese medical staff in two hospitals in Wuhan are suspected of contracting viral pneumonia and are quarantined. This is additional strong evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Sometime in “Late December”:Wuhan hospitals notice “an exponential increase” in the number of cases that cannot be linked back to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, according to the New England Journal of Medicine.

December 30: Dr. Li Wenliang sent a message to a group of other doctorswarning them about a possible outbreak of an illness that resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), urging them to take protective measures against infection.

December 31: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission declares, “The investigation so far has not found any obvious human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infection.” This is the opposite of the belief of the doctors working on patients in Wuhan, and two doctors were already suspected of contracting the virus.

Three weeks after doctors first started noticing the cases, China contacts the World Health Organization.
Tao Lina, a public-health expert and former official with Shanghai’s center for disease control and prevention, tells the South China Morning Post, “I think we are [now] quite capable of killing it in the beginning phase, given China’s disease control system, emergency handling capacity and clinical medicine support.”

January 1: The Wuhan Public Security Bureau issued summons to Dr. Li Wenliang, accusing him of “spreading rumors.” Two days later, at a police station, Dr. Li signed a statement acknowledging his “misdemeanor” and promising not to commit further “unlawful acts.” Seven other people are arrested on similar charges and their fate is unknown.

Also that day, “after several batches of genome sequence results had been returned to hospitals and submitted to health authorities, an employee of one genomics company received a phone call from an official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission, ordering the company to stop testing samples from Wuhan related to the new disease and destroy all existing samples.”

According to a New York Times study of cellphone data from China, 175,000 people leave Wuhan that day. According to global travel data research firm OAG, 21 countries have direct flights to Wuhan. In the first quarter of 2019 for comparison, 13,267 air passengers traveled from Wuhan, China, to destinations in the United States, or about 4,422 per month. The U.S. government would not bar foreign nationals who had traveled to China from entering the country for another month.

January 2: One study of patients in Wuhan can only connect 27 of 41 infected patients to exposure to the Huanan seafood market — indicating human-to-human transmission away from the market. A report written later that month concludes, “evidence so far indicates human transmission for 2019-nCoV. We are concerned that 2019-nCoV could have acquired the ability for efficient human transmission.”

Also on this day, the Wuhan Institute of Virology completed mapped the genome of the virus. The Chinese government would not announce that breakthrough for another week.

January 3: The Chinese government continued efforts to suppress all information about the virus: “China’s National Health Commission, the nation’s top health authority, ordered institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing institutions, or to destroy them.”

Roughly one month after the first cases in Wuhan, the United States government is notified. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, gets initial reports about a new coronavirus from Chinese colleagues, according to Health and Human Services secretary Alex Azar. Azar, who helped manage the response at HHS to earlier SARS and anthrax outbreaks, told his chief of staff to make sure the National Security Council was informed.

Also on this day, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission released another statement, repeating, “As of now, preliminary investigations have shown no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infections.”

January 4: While Chinese authorities continued to insist that the virus could not spread from one person to another, doctors outside that country weren’t so convinced. The head of the University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Infection, Ho Pak-leung, warned that “the city should implement the strictest possible monitoring system for a mystery new viral pneumonia that has infected dozens of people on the mainland, as it is highly possible that the illness is spreading from human to human.”

January 5: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission put out a statement with updated numbers of cases but repeated, “preliminary investigations have shown no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infections.”

January 6: The New York Timespublishes its first report about the virus, declaring that “59 people in the central city of Wuhan have been sickened by a pneumonia-like illness.” That first report included these comments:

Wang Linfa, an expert on emerging infectious diseases at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, said he was frustrated that scientists in China were not allowed to speak to him about the outbreak. Dr. Wang said, however, that he thought the virus was likely not spreading from humans to humans because health workers had not contracted the disease. “We should not go into panic mode,” he said.

Don’t get too mad at Wang Linfa; he was making that assessment based upon the inaccurate information Chinese government was telling the world.

Also that day, the CDC “issued a level 1 travel watch — the lowest of its three levels — for China’s outbreak. It said the cause and the transmission mode aren’t yet known, and it advised travelers to Wuhan to avoid living or dead animals, animal markets, and contact with sick people.”
Also that day, the CDC offered to send a team to China to assist with the investigation. The Chinese government declined, but a WHO team that included two Americans would visit February 16.

January 8: Chinese medical authorities claim to have identified the virus. Those authorities claim and Western media continue to repeat, “there is no evidence that the new virus is readily spread by humans, which would make it particularly dangerous, and it has not been tied to any deaths.”

The official statement from the World Health Organization declares, “Preliminary identification of a novel virus in a short period of time is a notable achievement and demonstrates China’s increased capacity to manage new outbreaks . . . WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travelers. WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the information currently available.”

January 10: After unknowingly treating a patient with the Wuhan coronavirus, Dr. Li Wenliang started coughing and developed a fever. He was hospitalized on January 12. In the following days, Li’s condition deteriorated so badly that he was admitted to the intensive care unit and given oxygen support.

The New York Times quotes the Wuhan City Health Commission’s declaration that “there is no evidence the virus can spread among humans.” Chinese doctors continued to find transmission among family members, contradicting the official statements from the city health commission.

January 11: The Wuhan City Health Commission issues an update declaring, “All 739 close contacts, including 419 medical staff, have undergone medical observation and no related cases have been found . . . No new cases have been detected since January 3, 2020. At present, no medical staff infections have been found, and no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission has been found.” They issue a Q&A sheet later that day reemphasizing that “most of the unexplained viral pneumonia cases in Wuhan this time have a history of exposure to the South China seafood market. No clear evidence of human-to-human transmission has been found.”
Also on this day, political leaders in Hubei province, which includes Wuhan, began their regional meeting. The coronavirus was not mentioned over four days of meetings.

January 13: Authorities in Thailand detected the virus in a 61-year-old Chinese woman who was visiting from Wuhan, the first case outside of China.“Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health, said the woman had not visited the Wuhan seafood market, and had come down with a fever on Jan. 5. However, the doctor said, the woman had visited a different, smaller market in Wuhan, in which live and freshly slaughtered animals were also sold.”

January 14: Wuhan city health authorities release another statement declaring, “Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.” Wuhan doctors have known this was false since early December, from the first victim and his wife, who did not visit the market.

The World Health Organization echoes China’s assessment: “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.”

This is five or six weeks after the first evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan.

January 15: Japan reported its first case of coronavirus. Japan’s Health Ministry said the patient had not visited any seafood markets in China, adding that “it is possible that the patient had close contact with an unknown patient with lung inflammation while in China.”

The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission begins to change its statements, now declaring, “Existing survey results show that clear human-to-human evidence has not been found,and the possibility of limited human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, but the risk of continued human-to-human transmission is low.” Recall Wuhan hospitals concluded human-to-human transmission was occurring three weeks earlier. A statement the next day backtracks on the possibility of human transmission, saying only, “Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.”

January 17: The CDC and the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection announce that travelers from Wuhan to the United States will undergo entry screening for symptoms associated with 2019-nCoV at three U.S. airports that receive most of the travelers from Wuhan, China: San Francisco, New York (JFK), and Los Angeles airports.

The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission’s daily update declares, “A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 665 medical observations have been lifted, and 98 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.”

January 18: HHS Secretary Azar has his first discussion about the virus with President Trump. Unnamed “senior administration officials” told the Washington Post that “the president interjected to ask about vaping and when flavored vaping products would be back on the market.”

Despite the fact that Wuhan doctors know the virus is contagious, city authorities allow 40,000 families to gather and share home-cooked food in a Lunar New Year banquet.

January 19: The Chinese National Health Commission declares the virus “still preventable and controllable.” The World Health Organization updates its statement, declaring, “Not enough is known to draw definitive conclusions about how it is transmitted, the clinical features of the disease, the extent to which it has spread, or its source, which remains unknown.”

January 20: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission declares for the last time in its daily bulletin, “no related cases were found among the close contacts.”

That day, the head of China’s national health commission team investigating the outbreak, confirmed that two cases of infection in China’s Guangdong province had been caused by human-to-human transmission and medical staff had been infected.

Also on this date, the Wuhan Evening News newspaper, the largest newspaper in the city, mentions the virus on the front page for the first time since January 5.

January 21: The CDC announced the first U.S. case of a the coronavirus in a Snohomish County, Wash., resident who returning from China six days earlier.

By this point, millions of people have left Wuhan, carrying the virus all around China and into other countries.

January 22: WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continued to praise China’s handling of the outbreak. “I was very impressed by the detail and depth of China’s presentation. I also appreciate the cooperation of China’s Minister of Health, who I have spoken with directly during the last few days and weeks. His leadership and the intervention of President Xi and Premier Li have been invaluable, and all the measures they have taken to respond to the outbreak.”

In the preceding days, a WHO delegation conducted a field visit to Wuhan. They concluded, “deployment of the new test kit nationally suggests that human-to-human transmission is taking place in Wuhan.” The delegation reports, “their counterparts agreed close attention should be paid to hand and respiratory hygiene, food safety and avoiding mass gatherings where possible.”

At a meeting of the WHO Emergency Committee, panel members express “divergent views on whether this event constitutes a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ or not. At that time, the advice was that the event did not constitute a PHEIC.”

President Trump, in an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, declared, “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

January 23: Chinese authorities announce their first steps for a quarantine of Wuhan. By this point, millions have already visited the city and left it during the Lunar New Year celebrations. Singapore and Vietnam report their first cases, and by now an unknown but significant number of Chinese citizens have traveled abroad as asymptomatic, oblivious carriers.

January 24: Vietnam reports person-to-person transmission, and Japan, South Korea, and the U.S report their second cases. The second case is in Chicago. Within two days, new cases are reported in Los Angeles, Orange County, and Arizona. The virus is in now in several locations in the United States, and the odds of preventing an outbreak are dwindling to zero.

On February 1, Dr. Li Wenliang tested positive for coronavirus. He died from it six days later.

One final note: On February 4, Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella urged residents to hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus. Meanwhile, a member of Associazione Unione Giovani Italo Cinesi, a Chinese society in Italy aimed at promoting friendship between people in the two countries, called for respect for novel coronavirus patients during a street demonstration. “I’m not a virus. I’m a human. Eradicate the prejudice.”


Anything yet?

moXJO,

Thanks you for putting that together. It corroborates information I have seen from many sources now. Everyone on this forum, whether they agree with moXJO's political views or not, should read it to fully understand the extent that the CCP went to cover up the original outbreak and obfuscate the nature of the virus and in so doing endangering human life and well being on the planet.

Only CCP sycophants or trolls would try to argue against those damning facts. And using arguments that there is no official CCP or WHO information to support those allegations is on a par with saying the Tiananmen Square massacre never happened because there is no mention of it in the official Chinese press.

It begs the question that I have asked several times. Why did the CCP admonish Western nations for imposing travel bans from China while at the same time it was putting its own citizens under the most stringent lockdown in modern times?

 

[rederob]

moXJO,

Thanks you for putting that together. It corroborates information I have seen from many sources now. Everyone on this forum, whether they agree with moXJO's political views or not, should read it to fully understand the extent that the CCP went to cover up the original outbreak and obfuscate the nature of the virus and in so doing endangering human life and well being on the planet.

Really!
The very first point in the timeline is completely false.
Most of the rest relies on speculation.
This has nothing to do with political views and everything to do with what is credible.
Little wonder there are so many conspiracy theorists here.

It begs the question that I have asked several times. Why did the CCP admonish Western nations for imposing travel bans from China while at the same time it was putting its own citizens under the most stringent lockdown in modern times?

Every country reacts to bans so what would make China different? It went the diplomatic route that is usually taken and pretty much left it at that. At the same time China was allowing travel openly everywhere except for the province it quarantined (and in respect of those it was actively contact tracing).
Turning this into another conspiracy theory shows a shallow level of thinking.

 

[moXJO]

Really!
The very first point in the timeline is completely false.
.

Umm no it wasn't I quoted what it said in the following post. You messed up.