Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
Jump to new
Smurf1976 said:
Data for the 3rd of April shows 140 new cases in Australia. That's the lowest since 17 March so perhaps we're seeing some benefits from all the action being taken?
Click to expand...
Excellent. I suspect however that if/when repatriate the thousands of people who are currently stranded on cruise ships and overseas this figure will jump again.

I hope the authorities can be sophisticated enough to differentiate between increased infection from local transmission and bringing back people who already have the virus.
 
The chilling reality of an epidemic is the potential exponential growth in new cases. Each new infection can produce a couple more.
There is a mathematical example of doubling grains of rice on each position on a chess board . Some pretty fancy numbers come up with those maths.

But the critical problem happens in the second half of the chess board.
1, 2, 4, 8, 16 ,32 ,64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 just looks interesting but not that significant

The next 11 doublings take you into atmospheric territory and when we translate that into infection rates across the world many countries are at the 1,000, 2000, 4000 levels. The US for example jumped from 74 cases to 188,000 in March - and that has been blown away in the past few days

The exponential growth of coronavirus can be explained by rice on a chessboard. And we should be worried
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...th-explained-by-rice-on-a-chessboard/12122214
 
basilio said:
The chilling reality of an epidemic is the potential exponential growth in new cases. Each new infection can produce a couple more.
There is a mathematical example of doubling grains of rice on each position on a chess board . Some pretty fancy numbers come up with those maths.

But the critical problem happens in the second half of the chess board.
1, 2, 4, 8, 16 ,32 ,64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 just looks interesting but not that significant

The next 11 doublings take you into atmospheric territory and when we translate that into infection rates across the world many countries are at the 1,000, 2000, 4000 levels. The US for example jumped from 74 cases to 188,000 in March - and that has been blown away in the past few days

The exponential growth of coronavirus can be explained by rice on a chessboard. And we should be worried
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...th-explained-by-rice-on-a-chessboard/12122214
Click to expand...
As Yul Brynner used to say: whatever you do, don't breathe.

yul-brynner-just-dont-smoke-1.jpg
 
COVID 19 hitting Brazils super rich.

Brazil's super-rich and the exclusive club at the heart of a coronavirus hotspot
It is Brazil’s most exclusive club – a beachside sanctuary of privilege and power to which just 0.00041% of the country’s citizens have the keys.
But the Rio de Janeiro Country Club – founded by British executives in 1916 and frequented since by the crème de la crème of carioca society – has been thrown into mourning by the coronavirus pandemic, sparking a nationwide debate about class and inequality in one of the most economically lopsided societies on earth.
At least 60 of the club’s 850 globe-trotting members have reportedly been struck down with Covid-19, while one – the septuagenarian businesswoman Mirna Bandeira de Mello – has died and been laid to rest during a funeral attended by no one but her son.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ve-club-at-the-heart-of-a-coronavirus-hotspot
 
basilio said:
A look at COVID 19 and the suburbs. Is this you ?

Coronavirus and the suburbs — how we're dealing with social isolation in the suburbs
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...-in-suburbs-how-to-deal-with-covid19/12115386
Click to expand...

How typically Aussie, there he is on national news and he is mowing the grass in bare feet, without shoes or boots for safety.

That is the attitude that most have to the virus, we have never had a problem so we do not know how to act

Sheila B Wright Mate !!
 
macca said:
How typically Aussie, there he is on national news and he is mowing the grass in bare feet, without shoes or boots for safety.

That is the attitude that most have to the virus, we have never had a problem so we do not know how to act

Sheila B Wright Mate !!
Click to expand...
Yep though I haven't noticed it around the supermarkets recently.
Maybe they're more scared of dropping large bundles of toilet paper on their feet.

This is how they might have queued up to get into the shops tomorrow but with a little more spacing.

JU85TTI.jpg



No worries mate
 
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s confirmed coronavirus infections rose by 3,677 in the past 24 hours to 95,391 on Monday, the fourth straight drop in the daily rate of new cases, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases.

The number of new cases was lower than the 5,936 new infections reported on Sunday.

The reported death toll rose by 92 to 1,434.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...tent&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

https://www.tradingview.com/covid19/
select "worldwide"
 
qldfrog said:
Ok link dead:-(
Here is the abstract before it get removed
Abstract
The 2019-nCoV has caused an epidemic of 28,060 laboratory-confirmed infections in human including 564 deaths in China by February 6, 2020. Two descriptions of the virus published on Nature this week indicated that the genome sequences from patients were almost identical to the Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. It was critical to study where the pathogen came from and how it passed onto human. An article published on The Lancet reported that 27 of 41 infected patients were found to have contact with the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 meters from the seafood market. We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory. Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host.
Click to expand...
Your link is a typical example of where conspiracy theories are born as it was just an "opinion" and not actual research of the genetic origins of the virus.
I have as much evidence about the fact that Boris and Donald are twins.
 
rederob said:
Your link is a typical example of where conspiracy theories are born as it was just an "opinion" and not actual research of the genetic origins of the virus.
I have as much evidence about the fact that Boris and Donald are twins.
Click to expand...
Not that you are not the kind of person who put opinions as facts as so numerous posts can demonstrate it
Yes it is my opinion that it come from that laboratory, no i do not have any proof nor will we ever as China will not allow them to surface if it is the case.we can live in lala land, nothing new for some here and swallow it came from the bats meat from a market not selling bats..
The mystery virus..
Conspiracy theories are born due to absence of open information, still looking for patient 0 it seems. batman
yeap just found it batman
 
qldfrog said:
Not that you are not the kind of person who put opinions as facts as so numerous posts can demonstrate it
Yes it is my opinion that it come from that laboratory, no i do not have any proof nor will we ever as China will not allow them to surface if it is the case.we can live in lala land, nothing new for some here and swallow it came from the bats meat from a market not selling bats..
The mystery virus..
Conspiracy theories are born due to absence of open information, still looking for patient 0 it seems. batman
yeap just found it batman
Click to expand...
I previously linked a scientific paper explaining why it was almost impossible for a lab to create the virus.
You are not citing credible sources.
Anyone wanting to learn more about the genetic basis of COVID-19 can search google scholar and find many peer reviewed papers.
 
rederob said:
I previously linked a scientific paper explaining why it was almost impossible for a lab to create the virus.
You are not citing credible sources.
Anyone wanting to learn more about the genetic basis of COVID-19 can search google scholar and find many peer reviewed papers.
Click to expand...
A lab studying the virus is different to creating it.
Dr. Richard H. Ebright has a differing opinion.

Ebright thinks that it is possible the COVID-19 pandemic started as an accidental release from a laboratory such as one of the two in Wuhan that are known to have been studying bat coronaviruses.

Except for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, two deadly viruses that have caused outbreaks in the past, coronaviruses have been studied at laboratories that are labelled as operating at a moderate biosafety level known as BSL-2, Ebright says. And, he says, bat coronaviruses have been studied at such labs in and around Wuhan, China, where the new coronavirus first emerged. “As a result,” Ebright says, “bat coronaviruses at Wuhan [Center for Disease Control] and Wuhan Institute of Virology routinely were collected and studied at BSL-2, which provides only minimal protections against infection of lab workers.”

Higher safety-level labs would be appropriate for a virus with the characteristics of the new coronavirus causing the current pandemic. “Virus collection, culture, isolation, or animal infection at BSL-2 with a virus having the transmission characteristics of the outbreak virus would pose substantial risk of infection of a lab worker, and from the lab worker, the public,” Ebright says.

Ebright points out that scientists in Wuhan have collected and publicized a bat coronavirus called RaTG13, one that is 96 percent genetically similar to SARS-CoV-2. The Nature Medicine authors are arguing “against the hypothesis that the published, lab-collected, lab-stored bat coronavirus RaTG13 could be a proximal progenitor of the outbreak virus.” But, Ebright says, the authors relied on assumptions about when the viral ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 jumped to humans; how fast it evolved before that; how fast it evolved as it adapted to humans; and the possibility that that the virus may have mutated in cell cultures or experimental animals inside a lab.

The Nature Medicine authors “leave us where we were before: with a basis to rule out [a coronavirus that is] a lab construct, but no basis to rule out a lab accident,” Ebright says.

Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently wrote an article for Foreign Affairsthat is dismissive of conspiracy theories about the origins of the pandemic but also mentions circumstantial evidence that supports the possibility that a lab release was involved. That evidence includes a study “conducted by the South China University of Technology, [that] concluded that the coronavirus ‘probably’ originated in the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,” located just 280 meters from the Hunan Seafood Market often cited as the source of the original outbreak.

“The paper was later removed from ResearchGate, a commercial social-networking site for scientists and researchers to share papers,” Huang wrote. “Thus far, no scientists have confirmed or refuted the paper’s findings.”
Click to expand...

https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/exp...her-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/

So it's in the realms of possibility.
 
moXJO said:
A lab studying the virus is different to creating it.
Dr. Richard H. Ebright has a differing opinion.

https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/exp...her-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/

So it's in the realms of possibility.
Click to expand...
How rapid and radical the response has been Worldwide, would suggest that strain was recognised very quickly, which in turn would indicate there was prior knowledge of it.
The SARS,MERS and swine fever outbreaks, didn't cause the immediate and universal panic this did. Nor did they have unique properties that this does
I guess either everyone new about the problem, or were given a hell of a heads up as soon as it surfaced in Wuhan, because the reaction has been nothing short of amazing.
It isn't as though the Governments aren't taking it ten times more serious, than what they did when SARS or ebola broke out, they knew or were told how bad this was and the big red button was pushed.
That has never happened before, why? We have had cross species viruses before.
Just my thoughts.
 
Mo they are talking about accidental release not that the lab created the virus.

"The Nature Medicine authors “leave us where we were before: with a basis to rule out [a coronavirus that is] a lab construct, but no basis to rule out a lab accident,” Ebright says."
 
Interesting the focus is down to individual areas already.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/eight-areas-where-you-are-urged-get-tested-coronavirus-011330708.html
From the article:
“We take this opportunity to encourage people to come forward for testing if they've got symptoms in the areas Waverley, Woollahra, Dee Why, Lake Macquarie, Manning Point, Nowra, Byron Bay and Port Macquarie,” Dr Chant said.

“In those areas, we have seen a case, or cases, of local transmission where we haven't been able to find the source.

“It is important at this time as we try and suppress the numbers of COVID-19 in the community that we basically elevate and raise testing levels in the vicinity of those areas, geographical areas, and we assure ourselves that we're not missing more broad-based transmission in those communities.”
The eight areas in NSW concerning officials
  • Waverley

  • Woollahra

  • Dee Why

  • Lake Macquarie

  • Manning Point

  • Nowra

  • Byron Bay

  • Port Macquarie
 
Top