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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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datasum said:
I can see what you're saying and smoking may well be a contributing factor but not the main one as Russia has an even higher smoking rate than China and the UK and USA have a lower one. Interesting article on Vitamin D's protective effect on respiratory infections:
https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583
Click to expand...

Vitamin D has helped me to avoid flu/colds for years now
 
macca said:
Vitamin D has helped me to avoid flu/colds for years now
Click to expand...
From unsure memory, vitamin D produced by skin under sunlight, so could our blue sky be the difference, is there any study about skin colour effect..on the same line..
In winter, no sun, low vit D especially in clouded sky countries..but Italy and Spain are very sunny..
There is a missing link somewhere
 
Hydroxychloroquine rated most effective Coronavirus therapy by doctors - global survey
Friday, 03 April 2020
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/20...navirus-therapy-by-doctors-global-survey.html

"An international poll of more than 6,000 doctors released Thursday found that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was the most highly rated treatment for the novel coronavirus.
The survey conducted by Sermo, a global health care polling company, of 6,227 physicians in 30 countries found that 37% of those treating COVID-19 patients rated hydroxychloroquine as the “most effective therapy” from a list of 15 options..."
 
qldfrog said:
From unsure memory, vitamin D produced by skin under sunlight, so could our blue sky be the difference, is there any study about skin colour effect..on the same line..
In winter, no sun, low vit D especially in clouded sky countries..but Italy and Spain are very sunny..
There is a missing link somewhere
Click to expand...

It is interesting, I have to avoid the sun because of skin cancers and I was lacking until a blood test (at my request) found it.

People with dark or olive skin need more exposure than those with pale skin, people who mainly live inside need extra Vitamin D as do females of Islam who are rarely exposed to the sun.

I have read that rickets (Vit D) deficiency is a lot more common in Islamic society than in normal Oz lifestyle, understandable really.

In Italy and Spain, do people actually go out in the sun or is siesta and a long lunch taken indoors ?

Research in USA old folks homes shows that virtually everyone is Vit D deficient and the flu danger is substantially reduced if given a Vit D supplement as well as the flu shot.

Some were given just the flu shot, others both, extremely large variation in protection for those with both.

Legal reasons meant no one was game to just try Vit D
 
I have very fair skin which is limiting but I do deliberately lie in the sun for about 10 minutes on sunny autumn and spring days to get vitamin D. Really works.
 
Knobby22 said:
I have very fair skin which is limiting but I do deliberately lie in the sun for about 10 minutes on sunny autumn and spring days to get vitamin D. Really works.
Click to expand...

Reminds me of Motorway who was telling us all this years ago.

Joe, it seems MW no longer posts here
 
There are 193 countries which are members of the United Nations.
As of 2 April, 18 countries had not reported a Covid-19 case, according to a BBC tally using data from Johns Hopkins University.

The 18 countries without Covid-19
Comoros; Kiribati; Lesotho; Marshall Islands; Micronesia; Nauru; North Korea; Palau; Samoa; Sao Tome and Principe; Solomon Islands; South Sudan; Tajikistan; Tonga; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Vanuatu, Yemen
(bbc.com)

- some of the remote island nations, maybe, but we've got a credibility issue with a few obvious ones?
(and incidentally Solomon Islands have just been hit by a cyclone TC Harold; large loss of life from a ferry sinking, it is reported)
 
qldfrog said:
Or maybe the smoking rate in the currently contaminated group is actually low in Australia?
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One observation is that whilst it was different historically, there are not many heavy smokers in Australia these days. Smokers yes, but not heavy ones going through a pack a day or more.

Considering cigarettes are now seriously expensive and that smoking is banned in pretty much all workplaces apart from truck drivers and the odd small business outdoor situation, there's a practical limit to how much someone can actually smoke these days in Australia. Those who are rich and don't work don't have that problem but that group tend to not be heavy smokers anyway.

So whilst many people still do smoke, there wouldn't be too many heavy smokers in Australia these days surely. It's just too impractical to be one for there to be many of them.
 
qldfrog said:
I get the feeling we (aka the world) are still missing something big?
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If weather has anything to do with Australia's lower death rate then we're about to put that to a partial test.

Melbourne's maximum temperature is forecast to be 16 for the next 4 days with no day over 18 during the coming week and minimums around 10 each night.

That's not proper winter weather but it's a clear, firm departure from the summer weather pattern. So if we see the situation deteriorate in Melbourne, but it does not deteriorate in Brisbane which is still experiencing summer-like weather, then that would possibly be of some relevance.:2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
If weather has anything to do with Australia's lower death rate then we're about to put that to a partial test.

Melbourne's maximum temperature is forecast to be 16 for the next 4 days with no day over 18 during the coming week and minimums around 10 each night.

That's not proper winter weather but it's a clear, firm departure from the summer weather pattern. So if we see the situation deteriorate in Melbourne, but it does not deteriorate in Brisbane which is still experiencing summer-like weather, then that would possibly be of some relevance.:2twocents
Click to expand...
If heat really plays a role, we are going to be in very deep shxt as it will get worse and worse here, coming from a large base..
Good point about real live test happening now in Melbourne.
So lets compare vic vs nsw in a fortnight
 
Is anyone else noticing any change in behaviour of others?

Anything really but the specific one I've noticed is the roads seem to have turned into a race track.

At a purely personal level I'm seeing that as a bigger danger to me than the virus at this stage. Only a matter of time until these idiots with their foot to the floor run of the road and hit something. :(
 
Ok link dead:-(
Here is the abstract before it get removed
Abstract
The 2019-nCoV has caused an epidemic of 28,060 laboratory-confirmed infections in human including 564 deaths in China by February 6, 2020. Two descriptions of the virus published on Nature this week indicated that the genome sequences from patients were almost identical to the Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. It was critical to study where the pathogen came from and how it passed onto human. An article published on The Lancet reported that 27 of 41 infected patients were found to have contact with the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 meters from the seafood market. We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory. Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host.
 
Hum probably wrong place for my 2 posts.got tricked @Joe Blow if and when you have the time, could you please move these 2 posts to the coronovirus thread
As a note, you will soon get a donation from me : i think i am losing the bet with @SirRumpole
This is good news
 
Smurf1976 said:
Is anyone else noticing any change in behaviour of others?

Anything really but the specific one I've noticed is the roads seem to have turned into a race track.

At a purely personal level I'm seeing that as a bigger danger to me than the virus at this stage. Only a matter of time until these idiots with their foot to the floor run of the road and hit something. :(
Click to expand...
I mentioned a similar thing the other day, so yes, definitely noticed more shxthead behaviour on the roads.... And more general rudeness.

I'm thinking this... well, the government response to this, is going to have a profound and lasting negative impact on social order.

My own switch has definitely been flipped by the brownshirts this weekend.
 
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