Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
Jump to new
sptrawler said:
W.A numbers still falling, not out of the woods, but worst case scenario seems to be diminishing. The problem will be keeping new infections out of the State, while it is still active over East. Still, even if we tighten the noose State by State, eventually we will stop it IMO.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...n-western-australia-increase-by-nine/12105922

Initially we were talking about running out of ICU beds by 8th April, so it is certainly looking better than that, thankfully.
Click to expand...

One big advantage of the states more or less quarantining from each other is that if a particular state, like WA say, manages to get things under control, they can start to remove the restrictions on business and get many back to work, benefiting all of Australia.
 
bellenuit said:
One big advantage of the states more or less quarantining from each other is that if a particular state, like WA say, manages to get things under control, they can start to remove the restrictions on business and get many back to work, benefiting all of Australia.
Click to expand...
The other thing is the resources, like test kits , ventilators, medical equipment, can then be focused where the main problems are.
It becomes a win/win situation, it does look as though the combined efforts Federal and State are producing positive results.
These are trying times for everyone, I know with the grand kids home 24/7, it is amazing how many things they can break and expect grandad to fix.:eek:
 
So much for the press lambasting the Government, for not following New Zealand and locking down.
It sounds to me as the one size fits all, isn't the correct method, obviously New Zealand's action plan needed to be different to ours.
This probably explains why a central think tank, that oversees the steps to be taken is imperative and also why the media should really zip it. IMO
It is opinion pieces that keep telling us what to do, but why do the media have to give them front page(web) space?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lia-s-confidential-plans-20200331-p54fmv.html
From the article:

In a worst-case scenario - if not enough had been done to slow the virus - more than two-thirds of New Zealand’s population would get sick, 146,000 would be hospitalised, 36,600 would need an ICU bed and 27,600 people would die.

The six declassified modelling reports released on Tuesday offer clues about Australia’s simulated scenarios, with the modellers in New Zealand thanking their Australian counterparts for providing their “valuable work" and including a reference to one of the federal government's key advisers.
 
Last edited:
bellenuit said:
One big advantage of the states more or less quarantining from each other is that if a particular state manages to get things under control,...
Click to expand...
states each have a Health Department. A logical and probably only point of control.
 
spooly74 said:
Another French Trial Update re: hydroxychloroquine
1291 treated with 1 death
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/
Click to expand...
There was some press on an Australian trial last night. It will target >2,000 patients with Covid symptoms, and starts next week. A rep said they should be able to report results "fairly quickly".

Hydroxychloroquine was described as an "arthritis medicine". Melbourne businessman Anthony Pratt has donated a $million dollars towards this study
 
Have just seen this. Info about three Australian trials. I'll probably get a kicking from the site 'Commissars' for quoting from this source, too bad:

VIRUS HOPE: BIG TEST OF DRUGS ON AUSTRALIAN PATIENTS
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/...s/news-story/e3dda0727e7b1f06af81bd99ab041ba8
Herald Sun - April 1, 2020

There are now three Australian trials of treatments for the CIVID-19 coronavirus. One will start on Monday, and eventually involve 2400 people sick enough to go to hospital...

...The third trial is by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute. This will test an anti-tuberculosis drug, BCG , to see if it works as a vaccine against COVID-19. This will be the largest,involving 4000 healthcare workers around Australia.
 
sptrawler said:
W.A numbers still falling, not out of the woods, but worst case scenario seems to be diminishing. The problem will be keeping new infections out of the State, while it is still active over East. Still, even if we tighten the noose State by State, eventually we will stop it IMO.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...n-western-australia-increase-by-nine/12105922

Initially we were talking about running out of ICU beds by 8th April, so it is certainly looking better than that, thankfully.
Click to expand...
Todays news report explains the problem W.A has, it is worth a read and explains what is happening regarding controlling the spread.
It looks as though we are still going for herd immunity at a controlled rate, so the elderly will have to be extremely carefull for a long time to come.
Just my opinion.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...ll-as-wa-begins-to-flatten-the-curve/12107326
From the article:
Mr Cook said the numbers were encouraging, but he cautioned against complacency.

He said the welcome figures showed the state was merely "putting the brakes on" so the health system could prepare for the inevitable arrival of more widespread COVID-19 infections.

He was resolute that WA could not avoid coronavirus and that he remained committed to the national goal of "flattening the curve".

The aim of this is not to stop transmission of the virus altogether, but to slow it to a manageable level so hospitals do not become overwhelmed.

"What we are trying to do is manage the spread of the disease, so it doesn't overwhelm our health system as you've seen in New York and Italy," Mr Cook said.
WA can't be a COVID-free island
Despite the low number of new cases, a New Zealand-style elimination approach towards the virus is not on the table for WA.

Such an approach could see WA eradicate the virus locally but then be forced to keep the state's borders locked down until the nation rode out the pandemic.

"Ultimately Western Australia cannot become an island in a global community which has COVID-19," Mr Cook said.

EMBED: Coronavirus cases: WA vs national numbers


A vaccine is considered too distant in the future and the approach could see Western Australia forced to maintain "draconian" public health measures for much longer than the rest of the nation.

It could lead to a scenario where, before a vaccine becomes available, enough people have been infected and then recovered from the virus in the eastern states for effective herd immunity.

As the eastern states resumed normal functioning, WA would be forced to maintain border controls and locked-down conditions as West Australians would still be vulnerable to the virus due to lack of exposure.

It is considered states such as NSW and Victoria have well passed the point where eliminating the virus would be achievable, and despite the single digit growth rate it is thought WA has too.
If WA maintained just nine new cases each day, in the long term, "the curve" would likely become too flat and the length of time the state would need to spend under tough restrictions would be untenable.

Dr Robertson did not rule out the possibility some of those restrictions would need to be relaxed in coming months if WA maintained very low rates of new cases.
Dr Robertson said whether restrictions might need to be increased or eased would not become clear until more testing had been conducted, as it depended entirely on how much previously undetected community transmission was taking place in WA.

"Then we will provide advice as to what measures we might be able to roll back to a degree, or, if things deteriorate, whether further measures are required," he said.

"But we also have to be very cognisant that we are part of Australia and that we have to work nationally to ensure that we can minimise the spread for all Australians right across the country."

Still prepping for battle
Extremely low rates may not be perfect in the long term for building immunity among the community, but for the time being it is a good problem for WA to have.
Keeping the rates low for now is essentially buying time for the State Government until it can ensure the health system is "battle ready" for coronavirus.

"When the storm hits, we'll be ready," Mr Cook said.

Yesterday he detailed more than $15 million worth of additional medical equipment the State Government has ordered, which included 301 ventilators, 201 humidifiers and 200 ICU beds.
 
sptrawler said:
Todays news report explains the problem W.A has, it is worth a read and explains what is happening regarding controlling the spread.
It looks as though we are still going for herd immunity at a controlled rate, so the elderly will have to be extremely carefull for a long time to come.
Just my opinion.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...ll-as-wa-begins-to-flatten-the-curve/12107326
From the article:
Mr Cook said the numbers were encouraging, but he cautioned against complacency.

He said the welcome figures showed the state was merely "putting the brakes on" so the health system could prepare for the inevitable arrival of more widespread COVID-19 infections.

He was resolute that WA could not avoid coronavirus and that he remained committed to the national goal of "flattening the curve".

The aim of this is not to stop transmission of the virus altogether, but to slow it to a manageable level so hospitals do not become overwhelmed.

"What we are trying to do is manage the spread of the disease, so it doesn't overwhelm our health system as you've seen in New York and Italy," Mr Cook said.
WA can't be a COVID-free island
Despite the low number of new cases, a New Zealand-style elimination approach towards the virus is not on the table for WA.

Such an approach could see WA eradicate the virus locally but then be forced to keep the state's borders locked down until the nation rode out the pandemic.

"Ultimately Western Australia cannot become an island in a global community which has COVID-19," Mr Cook said.

EMBED: Coronavirus cases: WA vs national numbers


A vaccine is considered too distant in the future and the approach could see Western Australia forced to maintain "draconian" public health measures for much longer than the rest of the nation.

It could lead to a scenario where, before a vaccine becomes available, enough people have been infected and then recovered from the virus in the eastern states for effective herd immunity.

As the eastern states resumed normal functioning, WA would be forced to maintain border controls and locked-down conditions as West Australians would still be vulnerable to the virus due to lack of exposure.

It is considered states such as NSW and Victoria have well passed the point where eliminating the virus would be achievable, and despite the single digit growth rate it is thought WA has too.
If WA maintained just nine new cases each day, in the long term, "the curve" would likely become too flat and the length of time the state would need to spend under tough restrictions would be untenable.

Dr Robertson did not rule out the possibility some of those restrictions would need to be relaxed in coming months if WA maintained very low rates of new cases.
Dr Robertson said whether restrictions might need to be increased or eased would not become clear until more testing had been conducted, as it depended entirely on how much previously undetected community transmission was taking place in WA.

"Then we will provide advice as to what measures we might be able to roll back to a degree, or, if things deteriorate, whether further measures are required," he said.

"But we also have to be very cognisant that we are part of Australia and that we have to work nationally to ensure that we can minimise the spread for all Australians right across the country."

Still prepping for battle
Extremely low rates may not be perfect in the long term for building immunity among the community, but for the time being it is a good problem for WA to have.
Keeping the rates low for now is essentially buying time for the State Government until it can ensure the health system is "battle ready" for coronavirus.

"When the storm hits, we'll be ready," Mr Cook said.

Yesterday he detailed more than $15 million worth of additional medical equipment the State Government has ordered, which included 301 ventilators, 201 humidifiers and 200 ICU beds.
Click to expand...
Well they all say WA means Wait Awhile. I am happy to have that till we have a better way out of all this. I would be happy to see that we control the numbers in hospitalisations and increase the rate of survival and recovery. I think to add to the answer is EARLY detection and immediate isolation, this requires a massive uplift in detection and then testing. Get those heat guns (Temperature detectors) out everywhere as we start slowly to filter out from lockdown and then start working and living normally.
 
jbocker said:
Well they all say WA means Wait Awhile. I am happy to have that till we have a better way out of all this. I would be happy to see that we control the numbers in hospitalisations and increase the rate of survival and recovery. I think to add to the answer is EARLY detection and immediate isolation, this requires a massive uplift in detection and then testing. Get those heat guns (Temperature detectors) out everywhere as we start slowly to filter out from lockdown and then start working and living normally.
Click to expand...
We will just have to take care jbocker, I will have to tell my mother and the MIL to be vigilant, even if they lift some restrictions, this obviously isn't going away in a hurry. IMO
 
I'll let the numbers do the talking but I question the inconsistencies here:

Using data from the following site and looking at the % of cases recovered there's a large gap. This has been the case for some time now such that an error in data entry seems an unlikely explanation.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Victoria = 31.7%
WA = 11.3%
Tasmania = 7.2%
ACT = 3.8%
SA = 1.8%
Queensland = 1.1%
NSW = 0.2%

For the smaller states it could possibly be explained by differences in age profile, sample size and so on but it's rather hard to explain the difference between Victoria and NSW unless there's either vastly superior medical treatment in Victoria or a major difference in the way patients are being tested and/or the data reported.:2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
I'll let the numbers do the talking but I question the inconsistencies here:

Using data from the following site and looking at the % of cases recovered there's a large gap. This has been the case for some time now such that an error in data entry seems an unlikely explanation.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Victoria = 31.7%
WA = 11.3%
Tasmania = 7.2%
ACT = 3.8%
SA = 1.8%
Queensland = 1.1%
NSW = 0.2%

For the smaller states it could possibly be explained by differences in age profile, sample size and so on but it's rather hard to explain the difference between Victoria and NSW unless there's either vastly superior medical treatment in Victoria or a major difference in the way patients are being tested and/or the data reported.:2twocents
Click to expand...
Noticed that, too.
Thought it might have only been patients admitted to ICU, who, after recovery might get another test.

A young person testing positive would be told to go home and rest/isolate. May never be tested again.
The main focus now is on testing probable cases but I've heard there's a shortage of the reagent needed.

SA had only 6 new cases on Monday but they only tested 500 people, usually around the 1000-1200 mark, I think.
 
There was a note about the BCG vaccine
According to the reports of french team involved, this would not be a virus vaccine but it seems that following injection of this vaccine inc repeat shot, the body raises it guards and more effectively contract the virus quickly potentially avoiding infection
The best application would be a BCG shot for nurses etc to ensure they stay operational.it is NOT a virus vaccine
But a nice advance, as well as the antimalarial drug:xyxthumbs
 
Was looking at the John Hopkins Uni dashboard outlining the spread of the virus. US figures were stark

Feb 1st ............................ 8 cases
Feb 15th........................ . 13 cases
March 1 ........................ 74 cases
March 15th................... 3500 cases
March 31st.................. 188,200 cases (4076 deaths )

If this sort of growth continues one can see an absolute disaster in the US.

If this is an indication of what can happen in places like India, African countries where ever then holy hell.:(
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
 
jbocker said:
Wont return to Europe, could you blame them? … and the weather is much more pleasant here too.
Click to expand...
The reason is to do with the health and safety of those on board. If they get sick on the return leg then their medivac arrangements would be contingent on some nation's navy having helicopters aboard. Germany is not very close to Perth!
If they get sick off the coast it's quick trip to shore.
 
rederob said:
The reason is to do with the health and safety of those on board. If they get sick on the return leg then their medivac arrangements would be contingent on some nation's navy having helicopters aboard. Germany is not very close to Perth!
If they get sick off the coast it's quick trip to shore.
Click to expand...
Remotest city in the world, it is loooong way before you get to another port. Maybe they are waiting for their Covid-19 passengers onshore to recover and return aboard and then go home. They apparently are saying that the remaining 450 crew are not feeling well too. But I hear that messages from them have been difficult, changing and unclear. Premiere says communication has been extremely difficult.
We had the health officials on board early and the Commonwealth are dealing with the sick in a separate hospital/facility.
 
basilio said:
Was looking at the John Hopkins Uni dashboard outlining the spread of the virus. US figures were stark

Feb 1st ............................ 8 cases
Feb 15th........................ . 13 cases
March 1 ........................ 74 cases
March 15th................... 3500 cases
March 31st.................. 188,200 cases (4076 deaths )

If this sort of growth continues one can see an absolute disaster in the US.

If this is an indication of what can happen in places like India, African countries where ever then holy hell.:(
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Click to expand...
I have been watching Brazil, where leader Bolsanaro apparently has been 'Trump'eting about economy also. Till very recently they had been jostling in position with us, Australia in case numbers, but today are starting to pull away significantly. With a population of 200+Million, it is going to get horrendous. Bolsanaro apparently was very flippant about the deaths.
 
Top