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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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qldfrog said:
We are in a delaying tactic allowing the refinement of treatment and a vaccine within a year and a half.don't think more can be done.
i expect to have it or its mutated version within 2 y.
will it become seasonal as the "common" flu or will it just spread over the world and die?
I noticed that qantas is reaching highs whereas all airlines are offering killing deals... literally?
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I have noticed the price of flights I monitor from Japan to NZ/Aus have dropped 10-15% since this started getting media attention.
 
bluekelah said:
They will be unable to contain it as it spreads like flu. Historically quarantine procedures dont work for flu so no reason why it would work for COVID19. Might slow down the spread though.
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We can see this happening in Japan right now. It doesn't help when the authorities are totally incompetent either. Big numbers will be printed in Japan very soon they have dropped ball in a big way letting passengers off the cruise ship to early and failing to use proper procedure whilst onboard said ship. I have heard reports of guys in Haz-suites eating rice balls whilst on board.

The FX markets are pricing it in also. USDJPY has had a very strong break out to the upside. This was caused by the over reliance on the supply chain with china which has now been disrupted. I suspect it is also because of the exponential rate the virus is spreading here and the toll it will take on the economy in the near to medium term. Japans economy, which is on the verge of recession anyway, will be a major casualty of this "pandemic".
 
This isn't good news...:(

Fears coronavirus quarantine regime is compromised as 27 day incubation period detected in man in China's Hubei Province

Key points:
  • Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days
  • The Australian Department of Health says they are watching overseas developments closely and their emergency response plans are flexible and scalable
  • A second patient has died of the infection in Italy, as an outbreak spread in the north of the country

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-22/27-day-incubation-period-coronavirus-china-covid-19/11991604
 
basilio said:
This isn't good news...:(

Fears coronavirus quarantine regime is compromised as 27 day incubation period detected in man in China's Hubei Province

Key points:



    • Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China's Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days
    • The Australian Department of Health says they are watching overseas developments closely and their emergency response plans are flexible and scalable
    • A second patient has died of the infection in Italy, as an outbreak spread in the north of the country
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-22/27-day-incubation-period-coronavirus-china-covid-19/11991604
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If this isn't an outlier, or erroneous assessment, then the whole model of control is out the window.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
If this isn't an outlier, or erroneous assessment, then the whole model of control is out the window.
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And even as an outliner, we would then be selecting these trends as a result of the quarantines.
But i think genuinely as much as possible has been done, now we can see it spreading thru pilgrims.. Islam/Christian imagine the spread on theJerusalem wall or in Mecca
Luckily it seems confirmed as relatively benign for most so will give an economic shock and a surge in death for a year or 2 but not a civilization ending pandemic.just hoping few of my loved ones inc myself will be among the casualties
 
qldfrog said:
And even as an outliner..
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most observed incubation data was 2-14 days. If it can lurk undetected for longer, then the sheer mathematics of contact might render existing measures ineffective
qldfrog said:
But i think genuinely as much as possible has been done...
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According to the manual. But like generals, fighting the last war?
qldfrog said:
.. it seems confirmed as relatively benign for most so will give an economic shock and a surge in death for a year or 2 but not a civilization ending pandemic...
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...seems to be taking out the older ones and those with pre-existing compromised systems (often the same cohort). But the fear is if it manifests in young and healthy and of reproductive age. then the demographics get skewed.

Actually, "rapid respiratory failure because your lungs being unable to transport enough oxygen to the rest of your body" isn't a bad way to go (IMHO).
 
sptrawler said:
If it gets into Africa, there could be problems, HIV is still pretty rampant there from what I've read.
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I
If you look at it from a unbiased and unemotional view
it is like a body cleansing itself of weak and diseased cells to create new healthy ones. We keep banging on overpopulation and how we can't sustain it and nature might just have presented a way through the lottery of life to curb our problem
 
sptrawler said:
If it gets into Africa, there could be problems, HIV is still pretty rampant there from what I've read.
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Not just Africa, any country that does not have good medical services is a potential bomb.

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Korea, Mongolia, Siberia and most of Africa are potential epidemic locations.

Rural China could also lose millions of people, their are just sooo many people in China the numbers could be horrific.

A terrible thing that could either become like the common cold or could kill millions of people who are malnourished or lacking medical help
 
macca said:
Not just Africa, any country that does not have good medical services is a potential bomb.

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Korea, Mongolia, Siberia and most of Africa are potential epidemic locations.

Rural China could also lose millions of people, their are just sooo many people in China the numbers could be horrific.

A terrible thing that could either become like the common cold or could kill millions of people who are malnourished or lacking medical help
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As you say, there are plenty of places where it will wreak havoc.
 
And what makes the US or UK or Australia so special we could avoid or handle an epidemic ?
How many additional serious illnesses cases could our hospital system handle before it cracked up ? Hundreds ? Thousands ? Consider a city like Melbourne/Sydney with 50,000 infections of which 10,000 require hospitalization. Do you seriously think we can handle it ?

What will happen in the US where single medical incident is enough to bankrupt more than half the population ? Perhaps people who come down with a severe case of coronavirus will be taken straight to a special mortuary because sure as hell they won't be seen in a hospital

South Korea looks awfully like China about a month ago.
 
basilio said:
And what makes the US or UK or Australia so special we could avoid or handle an epidemic ?
How many additional serious illnesses cases could our hospital system handle before it cracked up ? Hundreds ? Thousands ? Consider a city like Melbourne/Sydney with 50,000 infections of which 10,000 require hospitalization. Do you seriously think we can handle it ?

What will happen in the US where single medical incident is enough to bankrupt more than half the population ? Perhaps people who come down with a severe case of coronavirus will be taken straight to a special mortuary because sure as hell they won't be seen in a hospital

South Korea looks awfully like China about a month ago.
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Agreed, Oz has had so little experience in this situation.

We do have an advantage in that most people are well fed if they choose to be. Plenty of healthy food available at ridiculously cheap prices when compared with other countries.

I do not know what they treat it with, I read that it is common cold related so we have a problem because we cannot cure that.

Perhaps 2 pills and go to bed will be the recommendation
 
The good news is that according to the statistics, almost a third of those infected have now recovered. 78,823 infected and 23,380 recovered.

The bad news is there have now been 602 cases in South Korea, 135 in Japan and it seems now 22 in Australia. The number of cases outside China is now escalating it seems:

More than 100 each in South Korea and Japan.

50 - 99 each in Singapore, Italy, Hong Kong

10 - 49 each in Thailand, USA, Iran, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, Vietnam, United Arab Emirates, France, Macau

1 - 9 cases each in Canada, UK, Philippines, India, Russia, Spain, Lebanon, Nepal, Cambodia, Israel, Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Egypt, Sri Lanka

Total outside China is now 1887.

Concerning is that looking at that list, well there's quite a few places which either have a huge population themselves, are major tourist destinations or major transit points. So the possibility of further rapid spread would seem at least plausible. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
The good news is that according to the statistics, almost a third of those infected have now recovered. 78,823 infected and 23,380 recovered.

The bad news is there have now been 602 cases in South Korea, 135 in Japan and it seems now 22 in Australia. The number of cases outside China is now escalating it seems:

More than 100 each in South Korea and Japan.

50 - 99 each in Singapore, Italy, Hong Kong

10 - 49 each in Thailand, USA, Iran, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, Vietnam, United Arab Emirates, France, Macau

1 - 9 cases each in Canada, UK, Philippines, India, Russia, Spain, Lebanon, Nepal, Cambodia, Israel, Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Egypt, Sri Lanka

Total outside China is now 1887.

Concerning is that looking at that list, well there's quite a few places which either have a huge population themselves, are major tourist destinations or major transit points. So the possibility of further rapid spread would seem at least plausible. :2twocents
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On Jan 23rd a month ago China had recognised 615 cases. Where is it now?


Spread of virus in China.png


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
 
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