Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[sptrawler]

Two people in their 20s die with Covid as 'final surge begins'

The two people in their 20s who died in NSW and Queensland were both vaccinated. Read about the latest updates here.

au.news.yahoo.com

From the article:
The man died at Albury Base Hospital and had received two doses of the Covid vaccine and had "serious underlying health conditions", NSW Health said.

Of those who died, three people were aged in their 50s, one person was aged in their 60s, four people were in their 70s, nine people were in their 80s and two people were in their 90s.

Sixteen people were vaccinated and four people were not vaccinated.
A person in their 20s is among six patients who have died with Covid in Queensland.

Health Minister Yvette D'Ath made the announcement alongside 19,709 new daily cases on Saturday.

Chief Health Officer John Gerrard added one person who died was in their 70s, two in their 80s and two in their 90s.

"All of these people had received the vaccine," he said.

"It is a reminder even the vaccinated can get severe disease, particularly if you have underlying medical issues.

"All of these individuals had significant underlying medical problems."

 

[barney]

You don't seem to understand how to use data to come to valid conclusions as demonstrated by your comment on unadjusted data.
I suggest you use correct ratios related to vaccinated individuals in age groups, as you continue to make gross errors in interpretation.

I accept that criticism because I am unfamiliar how to calculate unadjusted data. (I did intimate that in the post to be fair)

I realised after the posts that doing a broad 70% / 30% split across all data was not accurate across the age groups. (too late to change)

With that in mind it is important to state that some of the conclusions I came to in my previous posts, although well intentioned, and while drawing from "real/factual" data, will likely be inaccurate.

Apologies to all for that; definitely not my intention.

Will try and have a look at the data again with appropriate percentages to age group, so transparency is maintained.

 

[mullokintyre]

meanwhile, here in Victoria, according to The Australian

Around 100,000 Victorians waiting for test results for more than a week have been told their samples are no longer valid due to a backlog.

Channel Ten reported on Friday the text messages were sent by clinics Melbourne Pathology, Australian Clinical Labs and Dorevitch Pathology to Victorians awaiting their results.

"Your Covid-19 PCR sample is no longer suitable to be tested and no result can be provided," the text message read.

My Son and his partner were two of those.
They had spent the last weekend with a group of friends , one of whom ended up having symptoms and had a positve RAT test, so got a PCR test which came back back positive.
So, son and his partner both had PCR tests as last Monday RAT tests could not be found.
neither has had PCR results back yet.
Son feels ordinary , but his partner feels fine.
I suspect he has the rona, partner may have also, but would be symptomatic as she feels just dandy.
Just a matter of time before I get as well I presume.
So many people I know have been close contacts or had it themselves.
Mick

 

[rederob]

I accept that criticism because I am unfamiliar how to calculate unadjusted data. (I did intimate that in the post to be fair)

You don't calculate unadjusted data!
The data is of the same quality as it's per 100k for each of the columns.
If you read the disclaimer at the bottom of the chat it makes clear that as most people are vaccinated, most cases will be from that group.

I realised after the posts that doing a broad 70% / 30% split across all data was not accurate across the age groups. (too late to change)
With that in mind it is important to state that some of the conclusions I came to in my previous posts, although well intentioned, and while drawing from "real/factual" data, will likely be inaccurate.

For a start over 83% of UK adults are double vaxxed.
For the over 70-79 year age group over 95% are double vaxxed, so the rough equivalence (based on 20:1 ratio) in deaths of unvaxxed to vaxxed is 7000 to 975. (I didn't use the over 80 group because a large number of these people die with covid rather than from covid.)

 

[DB008]

​

Study: Omicron associated with 91% reduction in risk of death compared to Delta​

Omicron infections are associated with a 91% reduction in risk of death compared to the Delta variant, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday, citing a new Kaiser Permanente Southern California study.​

The big picture: The study also showed that Omicron infections were also associated with a 74% reduction in risk of going to the ICU, as well as a 53% reduction in risk of being hospitalized, Rochelle Walensky said.​

Details: The study, which is yet to be peer reviewed, looked at 52,297 Omicron cases and 16,982 Delta cases. Those involved tested positive in Southern California between Nov. 30, 2021 and Jan. 1, 2022.​

• It was also done with CDC collaboration and funding, Walensky said.
• No patients with Omicron in the study required mechanical ventilation.
• Additionally, those with Omicron had a shorter duration in hospital stay when compared to Delta patients: "The duration of hospital stays was approximately 70% shorter, with the median of stays being 1.5 days for Omicron, compared to about five days for Delta," Walensky said.
• "Looking at all hospital admissions for Omicron, 90% of patients were expected to be discharged from the hospital in three days or less," she added.

Yes, but: "While we are seeing early evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta, and that those infected are less likely to require hospitalization, it's important to note that Omicron continues to be much more transmissible than Delta," Walensky said.​

https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-d...vid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html​

Kaiser Permanente Southern California study

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full.pdf

.​

 

[sptrawler]

It looks as though the NSW Gov may have been right about the sharp peak and fall off, hopefully the trend remains.

Sharp drop in NSW Covid cases as officials 'hope' outbreak has peaked

Another 20 Covid-related deaths were also reported in NSW, with officials hoping the outbreak has peaked. But Western Australia 'is another story'. Read more.

au.news.yahoo.com

From the article:

NSW has recorded a sharp drop in Covid cases and another 20 deaths as Australia's top health officials "hope" the latest outbreak has reached its peak in several states and territories.
In the 24-hour reporting period, the state had 34,660 new infections, with 13,682 from rapid antigen tests (RAT) and 20,978 from polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests in numbers released on Sunday.
Hospitalisations saw a slight jump to 2650 but cases in the ICU dropped off to 191.

Of the 13,682 positive RAT results, 11,204 of these positive tests were from the previous seven days.

More than 95 per cent of people aged 16 and over had had one dose of the vaccine, while almost 94 per cent have had two.

Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said on Sunday of the 20 people who died "two were in aged care in their 50s, six people were aged in the 70s, seven people were aged in their 80s, four people were in the 90s and one person was 100 plus".

 

[Belli]

In the 24-hour reporting period, the state had 34,660 new infections, with 13,682 from rapid antigen tests (RAT) and 20,978 from polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests in numbers released on Sunday.

We can but watch the numbers. However, it may not include those who didn't report a positive reading from RAT as their symptoms may have been extremely benign so they didn't bother - or they they didn't want to isolate. We simply don't know but it's looking good so far.

 

[sptrawler]

We can but watch the numbers. However, it may not include those who didn't report a positive reading from RAT as their symptoms may have been extremely benign so they didn't bother - or they they didn't want to isolate. We simply don't know but it's looking good so far.

It is a whole lot better than the doom and gloom the media have been reporting, it must be depressing living in NSW and reading the media reports and projections.
I certainly hope the W.A media doesn't take such a negative scare campaign when our borders open, my mother and MIL are $hitting bricks already, I just think the media should have a glass half full approach and support the authorities stance.
This constant negative and counter productive reporting must be wearing down those most at risk and vulnerable IMO.

 

[Belli]

It is a whole lot better than the doom and gloom the media have been reporting, it must be depressing living in NSW and reading the media reports and projections.
I certainly hope the W.A media doesn't take such a negative scare campaign when our borders open, my mother and MIL are $hitting bricks already, I just think the media should have a glass half full approach and support the authorities stance.
This constant negative and counter productive reporting must be wearing down the most vulnerable IMO>

Some encouraging information in this study albeit it's from late December last year.

Report 50 - Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

Report 50 - Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

www.imperial.ac.uk

However, as always, there is the usual caveat of don't assume. One of the aspects I've noticed, and it bemuses me, is news articles, and most people who follow those outlets, are looking for a definitive yes/no answer. Quite understandable.. Yet if the person providing the information for the article is, for example, an infectious disease specialist, they generally give the qualification "but..." which is overlooked.

However, I gather the bottom line they don't say out-loud but try to subtly imply is we are a species subject to infections and if a virus infects us it can severely debilitate or kill us. It may not but it can and there are no guarantees which one will apply to a specific individual.

Happy times, eh?

 

[DB008]

Hmm, Trump was right (again). Do you get the feeling that Covid-19 has something more sinister involved than 'bats' and a narrative that using any vaccine other than Pfizfer/Moderna/J&J is conspiracy theory...???

Lab leak for sure. Wuhan involvement confirmed.

Ivermectin works. Doesn't fit the narrative.

Joe Rogan was ridiculed on CNN for taking Ivermectin, which was prescribed to him by a doctor.
Lets not forget how CNN changed his skin colour to make him look sicker than he was.....

And the MSM (Mainstream Media) are scratching their heads as to why their viewing numbers are dropping to never before seen numbers and people are seeking alternative outlets? Because they lie to you 24/7 and have their own agenda.

​

​

​

​

NEW - Peer-reviewed, large PSM study from Brazil finds, "regular use of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates." ​

​

​

The study was published in the Cureus Journal of Medical Science today:​

​

Of the 113,845 prophylaxed subjects from the city of Itajaí, 4,197 had a positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (3.7% infection rate), while 3,034 of the 37,027 untreated subjects had positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (6.6% infection rate), a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001). An addition of 114 subjects who used ivermectin and were infected were originally from other cities but were registered as part of the program, in a total of 4,311 positive cases among ivermectin users. For the present analysis, the 4,311 positive cases among subjects that used ivermectin and 3,034 cases among subjects that did not use ivermectin were considered. After PSM, two cohorts of 3,034 subjects were created.​

​

Baseline characteristics of the 7,345 subjects included prior to PSM and the baseline characteristics of the 6,068 subjects in the matched groups are shown in Table 1. Prior to PSM, ivermectin users had a higher percentage of subjects over 50 years old (p < 0.0001), higher prevalence of T2D (p = 0.0004), hypertension (p < 0.0001), and CVD (p = 0.03), and a higher percentage of Caucasians (p = 0.004), than non-users. After PSM, all baseline parameters were similar between groups. Figure 2 summarizes the main findings of this study.​

https://www.cureus.com/articles/821...3128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching


.​

 

[barney]

she feels just dandy.
Just a matter of time before I get as well I presume.
So many people I know have been close contacts or had it themselves. Mick

Hopefully if you do get it Mick, it will be mild and bearable as most seem to be (touch wood)

(Dare I mention Quercetin/Zinc/ Vitamin D3/C just in case) Not to underplay nebulizing with a bit of "Iodine" etc!



It does seem odd how some people are "taken out" by the Virus but others are "untouched"

Doing studies on why that happens, seems an important "question" (I believe there may be some studies on that track??)


One of my mates who caught the big -C a week and a bit ago is now doing ok after a few days of **** as he described it

He lives in a small house in "very close" proximity to his wife/family .... Only he caught it (so far)

Some people obviously seem to have a "better" immunity to initial contraction of the disease

The science behind that (ie blood tests, and whatever else scientists do to work stuff out) seems a good place to initiate study??

ps All Family fully vaxxed for the record.

 

[barney]

Lab leak for sure. Wuhan involvement confirmed.
Ivermectin works. Doesn't fit the narrative=

Great post /content @DB008 you may need to prepare for some confrontation however


I wonder, if documentation which has been hidden and is then consequently presented, puts the "hiders" of said information ....

1) Under suspicion

2) Or even worse, "implicates" them in something inappropriate/nefarious


It would seem prudent/sensible/advisable/sagacious

To follow said paper trail and work out "why" they deemed it necessary to hide the information in the first place!

Is this not logical? Or should we all bow down to "Team Tony" (Fauci for those unfamiliar)

History has already decreed, "He's not the messiah, he's just a very naughty boy!"

 

[rederob]

Lab leak for sure. Wuhan involvement confirmed.

Zero evidence, for the umteenth time.

Ivermectin works. Doesn't fit the narrative.

It's not proven to be effective, unlike many other drugs.

NEW - Peer-reviewed, large PSM study from Brazil finds, "regular use of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates."

https://www.cureus.com/articles/821...3128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching​

Here's the lead author:

A dentist!

And here are the co-authors:

 

[Humid]

Zero evidence, for the umteenth time.

It's not proven to be effective, unlike many other drugs.


Here's the lead author:
View attachment 135917
A dentist!

And here are the co-authors:
View attachment 135918

no vets.....dissapointing

 

[Humid]

Hmm, Trump was right (again). Do you get the feeling that Covid-19 has something more sinister involved than 'bats' and a narrative that using any vaccine other than Pfizfer/Moderna/J&J is conspiracy theory...???

Lab leak for sure. Wuhan involvement confirmed.

View attachment 135895​

Ivermectin works. Doesn't fit the narrative.


View attachment 135896


Joe Rogan was ridiculed on CNN for taking Ivermectin, which was prescribed to him by a doctor.
Lets not forget how CNN changed his skin colour to make him look sicker than he was.....

View attachment 135894​

And the MSM (Mainstream Media) are scratching their heads as to why their viewing numbers are dropping to never before seen numbers and people are seeking alternative outlets? Because they lie to you 24/7 and have their own agenda.

View attachment 135897





​

​

​

​

NEW - Peer-reviewed, large PSM study from Brazil finds, "regular use of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates." ​

​

​

The study was published in the Cureus Journal of Medical Science today:​

View attachment 135892​

​

Of the 113,845 prophylaxed subjects from the city of Itajaí, 4,197 had a positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (3.7% infection rate), while 3,034 of the 37,027 untreated subjects had positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 (6.6% infection rate), a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001). An addition of 114 subjects who used ivermectin and were infected were originally from other cities but were registered as part of the program, in a total of 4,311 positive cases among ivermectin users. For the present analysis, the 4,311 positive cases among subjects that used ivermectin and 3,034 cases among subjects that did not use ivermectin were considered. After PSM, two cohorts of 3,034 subjects were created.​

​

Baseline characteristics of the 7,345 subjects included prior to PSM and the baseline characteristics of the 6,068 subjects in the matched groups are shown in Table 1. Prior to PSM, ivermectin users had a higher percentage of subjects over 50 years old (p < 0.0001), higher prevalence of T2D (p = 0.0004), hypertension (p < 0.0001), and CVD (p = 0.03), and a higher percentage of Caucasians (p = 0.004), than non-users. After PSM, all baseline parameters were similar between groups. Figure 2 summarizes the main findings of this study.​

View attachment 135893


https://www.cureus.com/articles/821...3128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching


.​

 

[DB008]

Chance of hospitalization/death for a 18 year old with covid? Probably 0.001%

Go to uni at Johns Hopkins and you need to be boosted, tested twice a week and wear a N95 mask at all times.

Complete joke

.

 

[Humid]

Chance of hospitalization/death for a 18 year old with covid? Probably 0.001%

Go to uni at Johns Hopkins and you need to be boosted, tested twice a week and wear a N95 mask at all times.

Complete joke

View attachment 135938​

.

Are the staff 18?

 

[The Triangle]

Chance of hospitalization/death for a 18 year old with covid? Probably 0.001%

Go to uni at Johns Hopkins and you need to be boosted, tested twice a week and wear a N95 mask at all times.

Complete joke

View attachment 135938​

.

Plenty of Jobs and universities in Florida.

That's the beauty of the US. At least there are all the different states with different rules. Can always find one that suits your fancy. The only option in Australia to escape the tyranny is to actually leave the country, which you cannot do unless you hold multiple citizenships.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

111 deaths to 430,000 infections vs our 250+ deaths to around 700,000 infections. Seems Florida with their 70% vaccination rates, limited restrictions and fat obese Americans are doing better! Guess covid already killed off their vulnerable?

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[DB008]

Are the staff 18?

Where do you draw the line?

Omicron is 75% less severe than Delta
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-17/omicron-a-reminder-the-pandemic-is-far-from-over/13707674

Keep living like a hermit for the rest of your life?

.

 

[Belli]

Chance of hospitalization/death for a 18 year old with covid? Probably 0.001%

Ah, but...

"Regardless of a person’s age, some airway and lung diseases can set the stage for a more severe coronavirus infection because of scarring, inflammation or lung damage."

Who Is at High Risk for Severe Coronavirus Disease?

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

And this is also interesting

newsGP - Is Omicron a greater threat to children than previous COVID variants?

The new strain has widely been touted as the ‘milder COVID’, but more children are ending up in hospital than ever before.

www1.racgp.org.au

"What we do know is that early surveillance data from South Africa, where Omicron was first identified, showed children and teens under the age of 20 represented 17% of all hospital admissions during the Omicron wave. Furthermore, 10% of all admissions were in children younger than five years and we know this represents an unvaccinated population."

An neither of the articles are from frequently watched news media - which do not generally go into deeper details due to space, time constraints and the desire for the public for a quick and easy read.