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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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Humid said:
Oh dear god your using Rod Culleton
Welcome home fruit loop
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Never actually heard of him, just saw it on my timeline. We all know the spinless courts won't want to play, but I hope he just gives them some sh¹t, whatever flavour of fruit loop.
 
wayneL said:
Never actually heard of him, just saw it on my timeline. We all know the spinless courts won't want to play, but I hope he just gives them some sh¹t, whatever flavour of fruit loop.
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Its there for a reason.....get a new name its like Netflix and the algorithm he found you because of you
 
Humid said:
Its there for a reason.....get a new name its like Netflix and the algorithm he found you because of you
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Nope, retweet.

But anyhooz, enlighten me regarding his fruit loopiness. Ackshilly, I prefer fruit loops to Stalin pretenders, TBH ;)
 
wayneL said:
Never actually heard of him, just saw it on my timeline. We all know the spinless courts won't want to play, but I hope he just gives them some sh¹t, whatever flavour of fruit loop.
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So how many times do you post this stuff you just found on your timeline....my perspiring obese mate want to know?
 
Humid said:
So how many times do you post this stuff you just found on your timeline....my perspiring obese mate want to know?
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All the time bro. Then see if the resident ASF fact-checkers can debunk. Then I fact check the fact-checkers to see if the debunking can be debunked. It's a bit like the PCR test... 45 repetitions of fact-checking and debunking until nobody knows what the fark the truth is. :D
 

auspice

nextstrain.org nextstrain.org

if my understanding of the below tweets is correct the genomic sequence database equals all the required steps to disaggregate the strains


Thanks to #opendata sharing via @GISAID, we've updated http://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid with 561756 new #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 sequences during the last month!


Hsud9iVz_bigger.jpg

Michael Z. David, MD, PhD

@MichaelDavid8
8m

Wow!
E-MuefsWQAMbyCB?format=jpg&name=medium.jpg
 
mullokintyre said:
Says you. I think it highlights that you have no understanding of modelling.
My premise is just as valid as yours.
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Whatever modelling you did in the past has zero relationship to present health models which are indicative. For you to think otherwise is self deception. So your premise is not at all valid.
mullokintyre said:
You edited the post and stuck those two graphs in after my post.
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I linked to the COVASIM model. You can ask the Burnett Institute for their excel version and run whatever scenario you want from it. You didn't bother to follow to the links and want to stick with your unsound claims.
mullokintyre said:
I never said Sutton did not say it was not based on a model..
If you bothered to read my original comment, I stated it was BECAUSE he said it was based on modelling that I took umbrage.
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And here you are posting on a model you took no time to investigate or understand.
Here's the US State of Indiana's covid positive chart:
1630532719024.png

Indiana has the same population as Victoria but over twice the number of fully vaccinated people. In 5 weeks the case count rose from the hundreds to around 5k. That's what is happening in the real world, and that's what models are showing as likely trajectories without mitigation measures.
mullokintyre said:
If you were not such an arrogant know it all, you might possibly understand that people can have valid opinions that do not concur with yours.
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I have never cared for baseless opinions so my comments are based on what you claimed and that is contradicted by real world evidence.
 
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sptrawler said:
Wont be long and we will be able to sort it, by just using crop dusters doing flyovers, it's amazing how fast technology is filling the void.
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This is about a treatment drug and not a vaccine.
The downside is that to use it you first have to catch covid.
At least with the vaccine you stand a chance of not needing the drug.
 
Just on a personal note, but I found it curious. My mother 90 years old had both doses of AZ no issue, but she has never smoked or taken alcohol.
The mother in law 89 had second dose of of AZ, a few days later had to go to the doctor diagnosed with pneumonia, 2 courses of antibiotics, but wasn't hospitalised, she used to smoke underlying emphysema and was a regular drinker.
The wife has a slight asthma condition (coughs when excercising) and had a reaction to AZ, nothing serious just the sore joints flu symptoms etc.
A friend 65 same as me still working, smoked until recently, has the early stages of emphysema (doesn't realise it yet), had the AZ first shot week before last, last week had to take 3 days off work due to chest infection.
I had AZ no issue and I don't have any underlying respiratory problems, that I know of.
I know it is a small group, but it would indicate that if someone has an underlying respiratory issue, they may have a slight reaction to the AZ jab. Just my opinion.
 
rederob said:
Whatever modelling you did in the past has zero relationship to present health models which are indicative. For you to think otherwise is self deception. So your premise is not at all valid.
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You were the first one to bring up your past expertise of modelling on a glorified calculator pal, not me.
Self deception? Pot. Kettle. Black.

rederob said:
I linked to the COVASIM model. You can ask the Burnett Institute for their excel version and run whatever scenario you want from it. You didn't bother to follow to the links and want to stick with your unsound claims.
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Unsound claims. Look in the mirror.
rederob said:
And here you are posting on a model you took no time to investigate or understand.
Here's the US State of Indiana's covid positive chart:
View attachment 129746
Indiana has the same population as Victoria but over twice the number of fully vaccinated people. In 5 weeks the case count rose from the hundreds to around 5k. That's what is happening in the real world, and that's what models are showing as likely trajectories without mitigation measures.
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So what has that got to do with modelling?
Are you saying its a model of the daily cases? Or is it actual data.
Unless the model can hindcast what actually happened, then its no better than a random number generator.
Show me the model that produced something like the above BEFORE the time frame, then I MIGHT accept the model was useful

rederob said:
I have never cared for baseless opinions so my comments are based on what you claimed and that is contradicted by real world evidence.
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I am sick and tired of your arrogant know it all attitude.
from the very first post i made here, you have just taken a contradictory position, and accuse me of unsound arguments, baseless opinions , indeed everything you do yourself. You are so lacking in self awareness you don't seem to realise your own contradictions.
Your nothing better than a troll, I am not going to waste my time with responding to you.
You can post as much abuse as you like, but thats it, you will get nothing further from me.
 
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