Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[mullokintyre]

Sometimes I wonder about the mentality of the people in Government.
From ABC NEWS

Victorian officials have ramped up a push for more people to be tested for COVID-19 amid fears the virus is spreading undetected in Melbourne.

• A new campaign urges people to assume any cold or flu symptoms are COVID-19 and get tested straight away
• An infectious diseases specialist says this outbreak is different to others this year due to mystery cases
• He says testing facilities need to be accompanied by a strong public health message and supports

The message of the new campaign — "only a test can tell" whether symptoms are COVID-related — is not new, but comes after a fall in testing rates and rise in mystery cases.

"If you just think you've got a cold, it might well be the inadvertent spreading of COVID-19," Health Minister Martin Foley said today.

On Saturday, Mr Foley said the 33,672 tests processed the day earlier was not high enough and authorities wanted to see the number rise back above 40,000.

It neared that number on Tuesday, but there is still worry that not everyone with coronavirus is being picked up.

Has it not occurred to thee Governments that people have worked out that if they don't get tested, the reported numbers will go down, and there is a chance of getting out of lockdown.
We still don't know how many of the cases are asymptomatic.
There will be some unknown number of people who have had the disease and were asymptomatic but were never tested., and I suspect that number will get higher for two reasons.
Firstly, a good percentage of people who have been fully vaxed are not going to submit to testing regardless of exortations unless they get really sick.
Secondly, if as suggested the Vaxines are effective against the disease, the percentage of people getting the disease, decreases, so there are fewer people showing symptoms, and fewer people seeing the need to get tested.
I went searching for statistics, but the latest study I could find was from RACP but was dated nov 3 2020, mostly before the delta variant had made its way around. other studies from University of Colorado and from Iceland have the asymptomatic level at somewhere between 10 and 60%. However, both of these are from last year.
The official Oz govt website (The Govmint ) does not appear to keep those statistics either (at least not in my searching).
Mick

 

[rederob]

Sometimes I wonder about the mentality of the people in Government.
From ABC NEWS
Has it not occurred to thee Governments that people have worked out that if they don't get tested, the reported numbers will go down, and there is a chance of getting out of lockdown.

Contact tracing will lead to cases over and above voluntary testing. Aside from that modelling determines the likely ongoing spread and duration.
Beyond that, we know that even without testing, cases will turn up at doctors surgeries and at hospitals.
The idea that if people are not being tested then regions get out of lockdowns sooner is unsound as the reverse is more likely. That's because quarantining and isolation are key to minimising spread. So if cases are not found, spread is exacerbated and becomes exponential. That's also the consistent message from NSW at 11am each morning.

 

[sptrawler]

Mixed messages still prevail.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

And on the other hand.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

 

[basilio]

Looking very ugly on the COVID infection rate today. Steep jump in Melbourne and NSW is also increasing and spreading infections.
It seems that the Caulfield engagement party has kicked away a series of infections in St Kilda, Elwood and Caulfield.

#EngagementParty Fall-Out Continues - A Rich Life

Further details including Covid transmission have emerged about the illegal engagement party that took place in Melbourne over the weekend

arichlife.com.au

High number of COVID cases expected in Victoria today as thousands finish quarantine tests

Premier Daniel Andrews says the highest daily number of infections so far this year, with most in quarantine, shows the "system working exactly as it should work".

www.abc.net.au

 

[over9k]

Yeah, so, like I said a solid couple of weeks ago before selling a whole heap of stuff off...

We're f***ed.


You can't put this genie back in the bottle.

 

[Joules MM1]

The association between COVID-19 vaccination and Bell's palsy

In the past 100 days, more than 3 billion doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been administered globally.1 With 20 vaccines currently authorised in at least one country and 108 under clinical development as of July 20, 2021,2 there is ongoing public concern regarding the possible adverse effects...

www.thelancet.com

thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00467-9/fulltext

Bells' Palsy

 

[basilio]

Have to say the rapid spread of the Delta virus and now the emergence of a Delta Plus version is bad news.
We aren't getting on top of the current infections let alone an even nastier/more contagious new version.

This story has neat video explainer of how the virus operates and the new version currently moving through India.

The premiers of NSW and Victoria both referred to modelling yesterday. Their interpretations were very different

Victoria's strategy remains squarely focused on returning to zero cases, while NSW's message is that it's learning to live with Delta "earlier than others".

www.abc.net.au

 

[bellenuit]

The "Israel" issue has been brought up many times and misleading interpretations of figures such as 60% of severe cases being of vaccinated put forward to suggest that the vaccines "cause" the symptoms or that they aren't working. Although explanations have been provided, I think this article excellently explains what is happening. I'll jump to the conclusion, but the full article needs to be read to appreciate what is happening.

In conclusion, as long as there is a major age disparity in vaccination rates, with older individuals being more highly vaccinated, then the fact that older people have an inherently higher risk of hospitalization when infected with a respiratory virus means that it is always important to stratify results by age; if not the overall efficacy will be biased downwards and a poor representation of how well the vaccine is working in preventing serious disease (the same holds for efficacy vs. death). Even more fundamentally, it is important to use infection and disease rates (per 100k, e.g.) and not raw counts to compare unvaccinated and vaccinated groups to adjust for the proportion vaccinated. Use of raw counts exaggerates the vaccine efficacy when vaccinated proportion is low and attenuates the vaccine efficacy when, like in Israel, vaccines proportions are high.

Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?​

Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?

A surge involving the rapidly-transmitting Delta variant in heavily vaccinated countries has led to much hand-wringing that the vaccines are not effective against Delta, or vaccine effectivenss wanes after 4-6 months. This has fueled anti-vaccine sentiment suggesting the vaccines are not...

www.covid-datascience.com

 

[wayneL]

And then there is this article... it's going to take 2 or 3 years just to figure out who is telling the god damn truth.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[bellenuit]

it's going to take 2 or 3 years just to figure out who is telling the god damn truth.

Actually we know who is telling the god damn truth, but you don't want to accept it. The Ivermectin stories have been debunked hundreds of times, but you still keep pushing them. Yes, there have been some success with treating Covid in some trials, but it is not a substitute for a vaccine. Those trials showing outstanding success have been shown to be deeply flawed in their methodology.

Why don't you just admit you are an anti-vaxxer, the same as most of the other nutters out there. You pretend you have an open mind, but all we see is you continually casting doubt on results presented by proper medical authorities and at the same time presenting many of the dubious counter arguments that the anti-vaxxers use. We have always to investigate those arguments and show you their flaws, something you utterly seem incapable of doing, though you are an intelligent person. If you really had an open mind you would check them out yourself.

 

[wayneL]

Actually we know who is telling the god damn truth, but you don't want to accept it. The Ivermectin stories have been debunked hundreds of times, but you still keep pushing them. Yes, there have been some success with treating Covid in some trials, but it is not a substitute for a vaccine. Those trials showing outstanding success have been shown to be deeply flawed in their methodology.

Why don't you just admit you are an anti-vaxxer, the same as most of the other nutters out there. You pretend you have an open mind, but all we see is you continually casting doubt on results presented by proper medical authorities and at the same time presenting many of the dubious counter arguments that the anti-vaxxers use. We have always to investigate those arguments and show you their flaws, something you utterly seem incapable of doing, though you are an intelligent person. If you really had an open mind you would check them out yourself.

You fool.

I had a tetanus booster this week, and had had all sorts of vaxes from cholera to smallpox to tuberculosis to yellow fever. If I ever satisfy myself that I would be happy with the risk reward proposition then I would have no problems with getting whatever vax is appropriate.

How many times do I have to state this for you idiots?

In no way am I an antivaxxer and you are an absolute idiot for using that phrase.

Also I have no challenge whatsoever for whoever wants to be vaccinated now. In fact I thank you because it gives me an opportunity for me and my family to be able to have data to evaluate.

I put these articles up for interest and for debate. if they are debunked then that is good, that is good information for me. You on the other hand would seem be happy to be Winston's tormenters in 1984.

 

[basilio]

Actually we know who is telling the god damn truth, but you don't want to accept it. The Ivermectin stories have been debunked hundreds of times, but you still keep pushing them. Yes, there have been some success with treating Covid in some trials, but it is not a substitute for a vaccine. Those trials showing outstanding success have been shown to be deeply flawed in their methodology.

Why don't you just admit you are an anti-vaxxer, the same as most of the other nutters out there. You pretend you have an open mind, but all we see is you continually casting doubt on results presented by proper medical authorities and at the same time presenting many of the dubious counter arguments that the anti-vaxxers use. We have always to investigate those arguments and show you their flaws, something you utterly seem incapable of doing, though you are an intelligent person. If you really had an open mind you would check them out yourself.

A bit strong... but perhaps not.
IMV well worth articulating.

 

[basilio]

And then there is this article... it's going to take 2 or 3 years just to figure out who is telling the god damn truth.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The reality is simple.
Zero Hedge has Zero credibility as an information source.

 

[wayneL]

The reality is simple.
Zero Hedge has Zero credibility as an information source.

Oh yes, I forgot that the guardian is the font of all knowledge ?

 

[basilio]

Oh yes, I forgot that the guardian is the font of all knowledge ?

Not so.
And I won't say that everything Zero Hedge says is wrong.
But having read and checked many of the stories you post, particularity by "Tyler Durden", I wouldn't trust anything said under that name without corroborating evidence.

This is the origin of the Invermectin story you posted.

India's Ivermectin Blackout

Ivermectin Wins in India

www.thedesertreview.com

 

[wayneL]

Not so.
And I won't say that everything Zero Hedge says is wrong.
But having read and checked many of the stories you post, particularity by "Tyler Durden", I wouldn't trust anything said under that name without corroborating evidence.

This is the origin of the Invermectin story you posted.

India's Ivermectin Blackout

Ivermectin Wins in India

www.thedesertreview.com

Did you follow and investigate the links presented in the article?

 

[basilio]

Did you follow and investigate the links presented in the article?

I did. And honestly it was very impressive. Truly was.
After reading it I can well understand a view that believes Invermectin has a place in the treatment of COVID.

But having said that I also note some quite important contra points around the integrity of the trials. Interestingly enough I never found any mention of the dodgy/fraudulent Egyptian Invermectin trial in the extensive information in the FLACC website

The Remarkable Story of Ivermectin

What is Ivermectin? Ivermectin is one of the most common medicines used to treat a variety of illnesses. What more can this wonder drug do?

covid19criticalcare.com

Ivermectin (Still) Lacks Scientific Support as a COVID-19 Drug

A Cochrane review bolsters scientists' advice that ivermectin should not be used against the disease outside of clinical trials, while a study claiming to have found beneficial effects in patients was withdrawn following allegations of data manipulation.

www.the-scientist.com

A major ivermectin study has been withdrawn, so what now for the controversial drug?

Investigations have led to the withdrawal of a study backing ivermectin to treat COVID-19. But that’s not the last time we’ll hear about this controversial drug.

theconversation.com

False claims about Ivermectin as a proven Covid-19 treatment

Prominent influencers are falsely pushing Ivermectin as a proven Covid-19 treatment. Some scientists have described it as the “new hydroxychloroquine,” the anti-malaria drug that continues to be falsely promoted as a Covid-19 cure despite multiple studies that show no clinical benefit...

firstdraftnews.org

 

[wayneL]

I did. And honestly it was very impressive. Truly was.
After reading it I can well understand a view that believes Invermectin has a place in the treatment of COVID.

But having said that I also note some quite important contra points around the integrity of the trials. Interestingly enough I never found any mention of the dodgy/fraudulent Egyptian Invermectin trial in the extensive information in the FLACC website

The Remarkable Story of Ivermectin

What is Ivermectin? Ivermectin is one of the most common medicines used to treat a variety of illnesses. What more can this wonder drug do?

covid19criticalcare.com

Ivermectin (Still) Lacks Scientific Support as a COVID-19 Drug

A Cochrane review bolsters scientists' advice that ivermectin should not be used against the disease outside of clinical trials, while a study claiming to have found beneficial effects in patients was withdrawn following allegations of data manipulation.

www.the-scientist.com

A major ivermectin study has been withdrawn, so what now for the controversial drug?

Investigations have led to the withdrawal of a study backing ivermectin to treat COVID-19. But that’s not the last time we’ll hear about this controversial drug.

theconversation.com

and this is why I keep bringing it up and it can't hurt to get more and more data. I don't think it can be denied that there are both mercantile and political agendas around the whole scenario both for and against whatever treatment who's been proposed.

That's what I am trying to get to the bottom of.

I'm actually well acquainted with ivermectin over decades in animal treatment, and know it should be, at least in that arena, completely safe.

I actually didn't know it was used in humans until just recently, but note that it is deemed to be a Safe drug as observed over a very long time.

It is also worth noting that it seems to be a cocktail of ivermectin, doxycycline, and seeing which appears to be effective.

We know that studies can be fraudulent, of poor design, and with erroneous conclusions. and that's not just in medicine but in all areas of science.

As I have stated elsewhere on this forum, I take my health very seriously and have been an avid consumer of both nutrition and exercise physiology science, both for humans and equines.

That I am not a scientist I know how to read science, at least in those Fields, and I know that 90% of it can be chucked straight in the waste paper basket.

So that's where I'm at and not of my opinions on this matter are set in stone.

 

[rederob]

and this is why I keep bringing it up and it can't hurt to get more and more data. I don't think it can be denied that there are both mercantile and political agendas around the whole scenario both for and against whatever treatment who's been proposed.

You need to look in the right place - there's actually a health agenda and it not in twitterdom so I guess we see your problem.

We know that studies can be fraudulent, of poor design, and with erroneous conclusions. and that's not just in medicine but in all areas of science.

Given the immediate attention paid to covid claims in medical science the rubbish is constantly being tossed out, and snake oil sales folk are regularly debunked. What we know about ivermectin is that trial research remains inconclusive. Moreover, there are other drugs with proven results in treating covid symptoms and they are in use.

That I am not a scientist I know how to read science, at least in those Fields, and I know that 90% of it can be chucked straight in the waste paper basket.

Your links suggest a poor understanding of this topic.
And people go to doctors for the best medical care, not witch doctors anymore.

 

[mullokintyre]

The reality is simple.
Zero Hedge has Zero credibility as an information source.

And therein lies the problem.
People pick and choose the sources as they see fit.
Instead of providing coherent, logical reasons, people bag the source.
Its so much easier than having to back anything up.
Look at the those who hate the ABC, hate the Guardian, hate anything from "the Murdoch Press".
No wonder the world is so divided.
Mick