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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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Yeeeeeep. Total exercise in futility at this point.
 
Another article re Vitamin D

Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor - Scientific Reports

To determine the factor triggering the sudden surge of daily new COVID-19 cases arising in most European countries during the autumn of 2020. The dates of the surge were determined using a fitting of the two last months of reported daily new cases in 18 European countries with latitude ranging...
www.nature.com

Get thee some sun, folks.
 
Wow, so interesting.

I believe controlled sun exposure is best for Vit D and this article is only for the serious who want to know more about optimum VitD supplementation.

Vitamin D Supplementation: Panacea or Potential Problem?

🖨️ Print post ARTICLE SUMMARY Vitamin D blood testing and oral supplementation have become an almost routine part of conventional medical care. Unfortunately, the results of a vitamin […]
www.westonaprice.org

The sun is finally emerging in Melbourne after a very cold winter. I cannot wait to do some tanning, always have in Spring before the sun gets too intense, and still love to work in the summer sun if only for short periods.

I find the 'fear' about sun exposure absolutely ridiculous. Of course you protect yourself against burning, we have always done that, but covering ourselves in chemicals and hiding from the sun is stupid.
 
How to absolutely xxxxover a community.

Sydney woman believed to have caused Newcastle COVID-19 outbreak allegedly lied to police twice​

ABC Newcastle
/ By Ben Millington
Posted 1h ago1 hours ago, updated 25m ago25 minutes ago

NSW Police ordered the woman to return to Sydney due to information gleaned from her Opal card.(
ABC News: Dan Cox
)
Share

Police are considering laying further charges against a Western Sydney woman believed to be the source of a COVID-19 outbreak that has plunged 600,000 people in the NSW Hunter region into lockdown.

Key points:​

  • Police are "actively compiling evidence" over the breaches
  • Police say the woman twice defied orders to return to Sydney
  • It's understood she attended multiple Newcastle venues and parties
In a statement, NSW Police outlined how the 21-year-old allegedly lied to authorities and twice defied orders to return to Sydney, before spreading the virus in Newcastle over several days.

Police said the woman was detected on a train at Cardiff Station near Newcastle on Thursday July 29 by officers conducting Opal card checks.

She allegedly told police she had intended to get off at Epping Station in Sydney but had fallen asleep.

She was issued a warning and directed to return to Sydney, but it is believed she continued on to Newcastle to attend a party that night in Shortland.
Catch up on the main COVID-19 news from August 12 with a look back at our blog

Lockdown extended in the Hunter region​


Newcastle public health officials say Sydney interlopers caused the Hunter region's deepening COVID crisis.
Read more
The police statement said officers were called to an address at Sandgate Road in Shortland at 1:45am on Friday July 30.

There police found two women aged 21 and 20 who had digital drivers licences stating they lived in Sydney's west.

"Both women were directed to return to Sydney and left the location, indicating they would comply with that direction," the police statement said.

"However, investigations have revealed they failed to leave the area.

"Further inquiries have also revealed that both women attended several other locations whilst in the Newcastle City and Lake Macquarie Police Districts."

Sydney woman believed to have caused Newcastle COVID-19 outbreak allegedly lied to police twice

It is alleged a 21-year-old woman twice defied police orders to return to Sydney before spreading the virus in Newcastle over several days.
www.abc.net.au

'Should've blown up the Hawkesbury Bridge': Hunter health official points finger at Sydney as COVID cases climb

Newcastle public health officials say Sydney interlopers caused the Hunter region's deepening COVID crisis as Gladys Berejiklian confirms the region will stay in lockdown for another week.
www.abc.net.au
 
Confirmation of what we all knew. It makes the numbers greatly exaggerated.

Gotta wonder why eh? Or not?

 
wayneL said:
Confirmation of what we all knew. It makes the numbers greatly exaggerated.

Gotta wonder why eh? Or not?

Click to expand...

Really ? Why don't you go to India or Brazil or other South Amercian countries which have recorded hundreds of thousands of deaths beyond the "official" COVID stats . These exist. Millions more people have died.

Covid-19: Study claims real global deaths are twice official figures​

BMJ 2021; 373 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1188 (Published 10 May 2021) Cite this as: BMJ 2021;373:n1188

Read our latest coverage of the coronavirus pandemic​


  1. Owen Dyer
  2. Author affiliations
Global deaths from covid-19 are not 3.27 million, as official figures suggest, but 6.93 million up to 3 May, a new analysis based on changes in overall mortality claims.1

The virus is claiming about 33 000 lives a day around the world, more than twice reported figures, according to the study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The study predicts that the pandemic’s true overall toll will reach 9.43 million deaths by 1 September.2

In the UK, the researchers estimated, the true covid death toll up to May 2021 was not 150 519 as officially reported, but 209 661. They estimated the true US death toll at 905 289, compared with an official figure of 574 043.

The institute predicts a further 44 000 US deaths by September,3 and only 750 deaths in the UK,4 because of its lower rate of vaccine refusal. India is forecast to lose a further 842 000 people in that period.5

Covid-19: Study claims real global deaths are twice official figures

Global deaths from covid-19 are not 3.27 million, as official figures suggest, but 6.93 million up to 3 May, a new analysis based on changes in overall mortality claims.1 The virus is claiming about 33 000 lives a day around the world, more than twice reported figures, according to the study by...
www.bmj.com
 

It's much more likely that deaths in third world countries will be under reported. People will die without ever going to hospital or having their cause of death confirmed. The real death toll will never be known.
 
SirRumpole said:
It's much more likely that deaths in third world countries will be under reported. People will die without ever going to hospital or having their cause of death confirmed. The real death toll will never be known.
Click to expand...

That is true and those figures are much higher. However the analysis of excess mortality rates in the USA and UK also indicated many more deaths during COVID than comparable periods. There were many people who died in nursing homes, rural hospitals and at home who just dodn't make it into the formal process.
 
subject matter in the video was how it was counted in the United States, hence that is the topic at hand. Not India or Timbuktu. Happy to analyse those numbers as a separate issue.

Therefore, it is clear that the number of deaths due to covid have been over counted, the woman admits as much.

And you can bet Mombassa to a melon that it is the same at least in all the advanced economies
 
Covid is a factor in deaths but should never be recorded as the immediate cause.
The recording of deaths usually follows established conventions, such as laid out here.
If a person is dead and has not been tested for covid then clearly a death certificate will not say that covid was contributory.
Helping us to determine that covid was an influence is the use of excess death rates. Below charts for a number of US States suggest covid deaths may be undercounted:

Furthermore, recent month declines which are evident in most US States are consistent with the rollout of covid vaccinations.
Not sure why @wayneL chooses not to use data to make a point, because the evidence for the USA suggest the opposite of what he believes.
 
SirRumpole said:
It's much more likely that deaths in third world countries will be under reported. People will die without ever going to hospital or having their cause of death confirmed. The real death toll will never be known.
Click to expand...
Yes, certainly agree but it also certain that the number of cases is vastly under reported as well.

Death rate % may be more or less, we will never know
 
The video below is about what is happening right now in one US city, but it's literally symptomatic of what is currently happening across the USA:
It shows that in Baton Rouge at the beginning of summer their 2 hospitals had a total of 4 covid patients. Lifting lockdowns and easing restrictions saw the Delta variant take hold and today 90% of all patients are covid sufferers, and 90% of them are not vaccinated (@ 10:41).
If that's what can happen to America today, where do we stand now if things get away, given our low vaccination rate?

Clearly a fully vaccinated level around 50% won't prevent our hospital systems from collapsing should the Delta variant get a toe hold.
And maybe the tragic experience of other countries will help us work out what the magical percentage will be. Whatever the case, we are a very long way from being there.
 
Last edited:
Yes, we blew it in one way. During the period supply of vaccines were not available it does not appear very much planning was done for when supplies did arrive. Little in the way of infrastructure to provide for mass vaccination sites, distribution, encouraging people from a variety of cultural backgrounds to be vaccinated. It is possible I am incorrect but I didn't see or hear of anything of that nature so a window of opportunity of four months or thereabouts was wasted.
 
Apparently we have just purchased vaccines from Poland.

Why didn't they want them ?

Poland doesn't even appear on @rederob 's chart above.
 
SirRumpole said:
Apparently we have just purchased vaccines from Poland.

Why didn't they want them ?

Poland doesn't even appear on @rederob 's chart above.
Click to expand...
Can't fit every country in @SirRumpole so here are most of the nations of Europe:

I believe the EU has got its vaccine supplies under control, so maybe Poland knows it's ok and can afford to reallocate some of its doses.
 
rederob said:
Can't fit every country in @SirRumpole so here are most of the nations of Europe:
View attachment 129051
I believe the EU has got its vaccine supplies under control, so maybe Poland knows it's ok and can afford to reallocate some of its doses.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the clarification, it seems Poland is better off than we are. Would be interesting to see the terms of the deal though (which we never will).
 
This is an excellent reminder of the recent Australian world that had to deal with many common dangerous diseases and no vaccines.
I suspect that many people have literally no idea of this pre-vaccine reality as they try to undermine the current vaccine conversations.

‘No concept of how awful it was’: the forgotten world of pre-vaccine childhood in Australia​

Until relatively recently, lethal infectious diseases stalked the lives of Australian children – including my father, Tom Keneally. Vaccines have saved millions

People queue for immunisation at Maroubra School in July 1939. Photograph: Hood, Sam, 1872-1953/State Library of NSW

Meg Keneally
Sun 15 Aug 2021 06.00 AEST
Last modified on Sun 15 Aug 2021 07.01 AEST


It’s 1940, and a five-year-old boy lies in an oxygen tent. He struggles for breath and hallucinates that his leaden toy soldiers are alive and marching around the room, monstering him with their bayonets.

He has diphtheria, a disease also known as The Strangling Angel. There is a vaccine, but not every child has been inoculated. The bacterial infection creates a membrane across the back of the throat, cutting off air supply.

The little boy’s mother, sitting a desperate vigil next to the oxygen tent, has seen diphtheria take other children.

It will not, in the end, take her son. The membrane will fail to fully close off his airway, and he will emerge from the oxygen tent. He will attend the funerals of classmates who die of diphtheria and polio. He will, in time, run alongside his friend , a fine athlete born blind after his mother contracted rubella during pregnancy. He will rattle a stone in a can to guide his friend to the finish line.

Throughout his schooling, children he knows will die from disease.

‘I’d like to take anti-vaxxers back in time’, says Tom Keneally, here aged five, shortly before he contracted diphtheria. Photograph: Supplied

He will, through luck, survive. He is still alive now, at the age of 85. He’s my father, and his name is Tom Keneally.

‘No concept of how awful it was’: the forgotten world of pre-vaccine childhood in Australia

Until relatively recently, lethal infectious diseases stalked the lives of Australian children – including my father, Tom Keneally. Vaccines have saved millions
www.theguardian.com
 
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