Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[mullokintyre]

But that is not what that figure is saying. It is not saying that 20% of people who are fully vaccinated end up hospitalised, but that of those hospitalised only 20% have been fully vaccinated. The way you are phrasing it is suggesting that 20% of the hospitalisations are caused by the vaccine, where in fact if it wasn't for the vaccine, there would be 2.2 times more hospitalised. It is like saying that if 20% of politicians are women, then 20% of women are politicians.

Using rough figures, the adult population of the UK is 54m of which 32.5m have been fully vaccinated. That is 60%. If full vaccination offered no protection against hospitalisation compared to no vaccination, then we would expect 60% of hospitalisations due to COVID to be of fully vaccinated people. But the figures (using your figures from above) show that only 20% of fully vaccinated people end up hospitalised.

So for every 100 people hospitalised, 80 of those represent 40% of the people (the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated). The other 60% are fully vaccinated, but if they too were not fully vaccinated, we would expect 120 more hospitalisations instead of the just 20 more. So that figure of 100 would be 220 if no one was fully vaccinated, 2.2 times more.

Looking at this another way, the vaccines (full) effectively reduce your chances of being hospitalised by 83% (20/120). Although these are very rough back of the envelope figures, they are in line with actual results seen to date.

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses

Vaccines highly effective against hospitalisation from Delta variant

New analysis by PHE shows for the first time that 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalisation from the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant.

www.gov.uk

My apologies, I should have phrased it better.
If the general population works out that 20% of the people hospitalised with covid symptoms have been vaccinated, all hell will break loose.
As I said, if people are getting uptight about the extremely small chances of getting blood clots, that figure will cause some serious issues. Its a moot point as to whether it is warranted, but it will cause problems none the less.
Perhaps the issue is confined to the UK.
The US seems to have about 0.01% of fully vaccinated people getting what they call breakthrough cases. ( see Huff Post ).
The problem is, no on really knows just how many people get covid after being vaxed and are asymptomatic, unless they decide to get tested. And of course, they are not going to get tested unless they have symptoms. According to the article I quoted, the CDC have stopped counting the people who get covid after being vaccinated, only those who get hospitalised.
But the biggest problem I see is that even if you get the dual jab, you are still subject to all the lockdowns, travel restrictions, border closures etc etc. People who have any doubts about the various vaccines are going to ask why bother, if I get vaccinated and still subject to all the restrictions.
Mick

 

[bellenuit]

If the general population works out that 20% of the people hospitalised with covid symptoms have been vaccinated, all hell will break loose.

Why? I really believe you do not understand what the data means.

As more and more people are being vaccinated, hospitalisations are decreasing (although there seems to have been a recent upturn in UK data that needs to be analysed). But if we take countries like the US, the trend is obvious:

It's hard to read directly off the chart, but the figures seem to be about 16,000 hospitalisations per day at the peak, down to 2,000 per day currently (in fact the most recent figure is 1,843). But the important point, which you do not seem to understand, is that as the percentage of the people fully vaccinated increases, the percentage of people hospitalised due to Covid that have been vaccinated increases. The only reason all hell should break loose is if people do not understand what the figures mean.

Prior to commencement of vaccinations, 0% of hospital admissions due to Covid were of vaccinated people. If, though unlikely, 100% of people get fully vaccinated, there will still be hospitalisations due to breakthrough cases, but when that happens, 100% of hospital admissions due to Covid will be of vaccinated people. Between these two extremes, the percentage of hospitalisations where the patient is fully vaccinated increases as the percentage of people being fully vaccinated increases. That is just mathematics.

The important thing is not the relative percentage of hospitalisations where the patient is vaccinated or not, but the absolute number of hospitalisations. That is decreasing due to vaccinations as the above chart shows. The figure that you think is going to cause hell to break loose is just a mathematical byproduct of the changing population percentages that each group makes up.

The problem is, no on really knows just how many people get covid after being vaxed and are asymptomatic, unless they decide to get tested.

Here we go again. I have given you links that show that the CDC are specifically looking at asymptomatic cases post vaccination. You do not need to test the whole population several times post vaccination to get reliable results. Sample testing is sufficient. I mean isn't that what the science of statistics is about.

COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections Reported to CDC ...

COVID-19 vaccines are a critical tool for controlling the ongoing global pandemic.

www.cdc.gov

A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021. Among these cases, 6,446 (63%) occurred in females, and the median patient age was 58 years (interquartile range = 40–74 years). Based on preliminary data, 2,725 (27%) vaccine breakthrough infections were asymptomatic, 995 (10%) patients were known to be hospitalized, and 160 (2%) patients died. Among the 995 hospitalized patients, 289 (29%) were asymptomatic or hospitalized for a reason unrelated to COVID-19. The median age of patients who died was 82 years (interquartile range = 71–89 years); 28 (18%) decedents were asymptomatic or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19. Sequence data were available from 555 (5%) reported cases, 356 (64%) of which were identified as SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern,§ including B.1.1.7 (199; 56%), B.1.429 (88; 25%), B.1.427 (28; 8%), P.1 (28; 8%), and B.1.351 (13; 4%).

 

[moXJO]

I'm interested in the figures coming out of India. They were testing against the vaccines and it should be out in 5 days or so.

 

[mullokintyre]

Why? I really believe you do not understand what the data means.

As more and more people are being vaccinated, hospitalisations are decreasing (although there seems to have been a recent upturn in UK data that needs to be analysed). But if we take countries like the US, the trend is obvious:

View attachment 126744

It's hard to read directly off the chart, but the figures seem to be about 16,000 hospitalisations per day at the peak, down to 2,000 per day currently (in fact the most recent figure is 1,843). But the important point, which you do not seem to understand, is that as the percentage of the people fully vaccinated increases, the percentage of people hospitalised due to Covid that have been vaccinated increases. The only reason all hell should break loose is if people do not understand what the figures mean.

Prior to commencement of vaccinations, 0% of hospital admissions due to Covid were of vaccinated people. If, though unlikely, 100% of people get fully vaccinated, there will still be hospitalisations due to breakthrough cases, but when that happens, 100% of hospital admissions due to Covid will be of vaccinated people. Between these two extremes, the percentage of hospitalisations where the patient is fully vaccinated increases as the percentage of people being fully vaccinated increases. That is just mathematics.

The important thing is not the relative percentage of hospitalisations where the patient is vaccinated or not, but the absolute number of hospitalisations. That is decreasing due to vaccinations as the above chart shows. The figure that you think is going to cause hell to break loose is just a mathematical byproduct of the changing population percentages that each group makes up.

The problem is, no on really knows just how many people get covid after being vaxed and are asymptomatic, unless they decide to get tested.

Here we go again. I have given you links that show that the CDC are specifically looking at asymptomatic cases post vaccination. You do not need to test the whole population several times post vaccination to get reliable results. Sample testing is sufficient. I mean isn't that what the science of statistics is about.

COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections Reported to CDC ...

COVID-19 vaccines are a critical tool for controlling the ongoing global pandemic.

www.cdc.gov

A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021. Among these cases, 6,446 (63%) occurred in females, and the median patient age was 58 years (interquartile range = 40–74 years). Based on preliminary data, 2,725 (27%) vaccine breakthrough infections were asymptomatic, 995 (10%) patients were known to be hospitalized, and 160 (2%) patients died. Among the 995 hospitalized patients, 289 (29%) were asymptomatic or hospitalized for a reason unrelated to COVID-19. The median age of patients who died was 82 years (interquartile range = 71–89 years); 28 (18%) decedents were asymptomatic or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19. Sequence data were available from 555 (5%) reported cases, 356 (64%) of which were identified as SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern,§ including B.1.1.7 (199; 56%), B.1.429 (88; 25%), B.1.427 (28; 8%), P.1 (28; 8%), and B.1.351 (13; 4%).

Ok, I guess I got it all wrong then.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

The covid outbreak has certainly been keenly watched by the mining companies, the fifo debate has been heating up lately, since the NT outbreak.
I love the picture of the inside of the fifo plane, I mean really that can't be helping global warming? It must take three times as many planes to move the workers.
I wonder if @Humid is in the picture??
I really don't know who thought fifo was a good idea, looking at the unhappy faces on the blokes, I'd say it was their wives.

Perth lockdown proves need for regional FIFO workforce, mayor says

The resources sector was asked to pause the movement of all but critical FIFO workers in and out of Perth, but mine site flights are operating as per usual in some parts of regional WA.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:

 

[sptrawler]

And now on cue we have the State Governments starting to crank up the stupid rhetoric, which helps no one, jeez maybe getting rid of State Governements isn't a bad idea.
When anything gets hard, they blame the Federal Government, when everything is going well they take the credit.
How is this for bad form.LOL
Considering the States are administering the vaccines, even I find the statement a show of how shallow politicians are IMO, jeez when there wasn't a problem I'll take the credit as soon as an issue arises lets fling $hit. ? ?
Blind Freddy knows no one wants the astrazeneca shot, but Morrison said it is there if someone wants it, now it is reported as mass vaccination centres being set up to push them through. FFS how people can vote for this sort of nonsense is mindboggling.
Also probably the reason we are going to streaming movies, you can overdose on the crap free to air social engineering 24/7, for only so long.
I mean really that headline, would scream out z grade movie plot, but she is a very popular politician it kind of says where Australia is going IMO, sad really.
I'm just grateful W.A has a lucid,keep it simple, keep it straight Premier. ?

Qld Premier falsely claims PM planned mass vaccination centres for under 40s to get AstraZeneca

The federal government said Annastacia Palaszczuk’s claims were “absolutely incorrect”.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has claimed that the federal government was planning to establish mass vaccination centres to administer AstraZeneca vaccines to under 40s.

 

[IFocus]

SP the state governments are actually doing all the work Morrison SFA, seriously.

This out break really exposes the lack of vaccination in Australia we are bottom of the OCD the state premiers are looking to off load the heat even Gladys and her ministers are crying out.

By any measure its a dogs breakfast 730 tonight could not interview Morrison / Hunt / federal bureaucrats wonder why?

 

[wayneL]

How much do you really know about covid? Take this quiz

COVID-19 Quiz

How much do you really know about the pandemic? Take our five-minute quiz and test your knowledge.

www.hartgroup.org

I did pretty well, but surprised at a couple of things I got wrong.

 

[Humid]

And now on cue we have the State Governments starting to crank up the stupid rhetoric, which helps no one, jeez maybe getting rid of State Governements isn't a bad idea.
When anything gets hard, they blame the Federal Government, when everything is going well they take the credit.
How is this for bad form.LOL
Considering the States are administering the vaccines, even I find the statement a show of how shallow politicians are IMO, jeez when there wasn't a problem I'll take the credit as soon as an issue arises lets fling $hit. ? ?
Blind Freddy knows no one wants the astrazeneca shot, but Morrison said it is there if someone wants it, now it is reported as mass vaccination centres being set up to push them through. FFS how people can vote for this sort of nonsense is mindboggling.
Also probably the reason we are going to streaming movies, you can overdose on the crap free to air social engineering 24/7, for only so long.
I mean really that headline, would scream out z grade movie plot, but she is a very popular politician it kind of says where Australia is going IMO, sad really.
I'm just grateful W.A has a lucid,keep it simple, keep it straight Premier. ?

Qld Premier falsely claims PM planned mass vaccination centres for under 40s to get AstraZeneca

The federal government said Annastacia Palaszczuk’s claims were “absolutely incorrect”.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has claimed that the federal government was planning to establish mass vaccination centres to administer AstraZeneca vaccines to under 40s.

All because a lack of vaccines the rest is politics

 

[Humid]

The covid outbreak has certainly been keenly watched by the mining companies, the fifo debate has been heating up lately, since the NT outbreak.
I love the picture of the inside of the fifo plane, I mean really that can't be helping global warming? It must take three times as many planes to move the workers.
I wonder if @Humid is in the picture??
I really don't know who thought fifo was a good idea, looking at the unhappy faces on the blokes, I'd say it was their wives.

Perth lockdown proves need for regional FIFO workforce, mayor says

The resources sector was asked to pause the movement of all but critical FIFO workers in and out of Perth, but mine site flights are operating as per usual in some parts of regional WA.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:

View attachment 126875

The covid outbreak has certainly been keenly watched by the mining companies, the fifo debate has been heating up lately, since the NT outbreak.
I love the picture of the inside of the fifo plane, I mean really that can't be helping global warming? It must take three times as many planes to move the workers.
I wonder if @Humid is in the picture??
I really don't know who thought fifo was a good idea, looking at the unhappy faces on the blokes, I'd say it was their wives.

Perth lockdown proves need for regional FIFO workforce, mayor says

The resources sector was asked to pause the movement of all but critical FIFO workers in and out of Perth, but mine site flights are operating as per usual in some parts of regional WA.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:

View attachment 126875

Great in theory but they have no idea as most mines are no where near towns.
They run 2 x12 hour shifts so you need to live close to the mine to handover to the next shift.
I was staying at South Flank and travelling 2 hours each way to Newman for a shut.....getting payed watching movies on the bus.
Duty of care
Fatigue management blah blah

 

[Humid]

Planes have been flying full of hivis hobos for 8 months

 

[wayneL]

Jeez, no wonder some people are terrified! Project fear has been very effective

 

[mullokintyre]

According the ABS, Australia had about 158,000 deaths in 2018, 169,000 in 2019, but only 141,000 deaths in 2020.
The 2020 figure is almost the same as that of 2009. Flu and pneumonia deaths were down by 36%, deaths due to respiratory disease down by 16%. So despite the panic about the pandemic, there was a significant decrease in deaths in population.
So what were we worried about?
I was thinking about the fear of people and trying to relate it to shark attacks.
Australia has on average, 1 fatal death from shark attacks per year.
So far in 2021, we have had our one death for the year, so surfers should be fine for a while.
That person was a young surfer in Queenland. I am yet to hear Palaszczuk or Jeanette Young suggest that young surfers should not go in the water.
The TGA report (covid vaccine report TGA ) has one death from TTS (aka blood clots) in OZ so far this year. On a par with shark attacks.
THE TGA report says that so far, there have been 33 reported cases of TTS. 21 have recovered, nine still in hospital. I presume the discrepancy in numbers is die to some not being hospitalised at all.
There have been a tad over 21 million tests for COVID nationally. Of those tests, 0.1% have been positive.
Edited.
I forgot to mention that we have 81 hospitalised cases.
Be interesting to know how that compares to the Flu hospitalisations this year versus a "normal" year.
Mick

 

[The Triangle]

There’s yet another COVID strain spreading. Here’s what you should know about the Lambda variant

The World Health Organization (WHO) has added the COVID Lambda variant to its list of coronavirus variants of interest, meaning it could be more contagious.

fortune.com

Only a matter of time until the next variant came up. The Gamma, the Kappa, the Omega. By this time next year we'll be on the Phi-Beta-Epsilon variant.

Instead of the excrement that run the media and our governments injecting us with fear they should be inspiring our researchers to cure this sino-american made (IMO) disease.

 

[sptrawler]

There’s yet another COVID strain spreading. Here’s what you should know about the Lambda variant

The World Health Organization (WHO) has added the COVID Lambda variant to its list of coronavirus variants of interest, meaning it could be more contagious.

fortune.com

Only a matter of time until the next variant came up. The Gamma, the Kappa, the Omega. By this time next year we'll be on the Phi-Beta-Epsilon variant.

Instead of the excrement that run the media and our governments injecting us with fear they should be inspiring our researchers to cure this sino-american made (IMO) disease.

I think you pretty well nailed it.
I don't want the virus, I don't want the vaccine, but I do want to travel.
It is a shame the Governments of the world can't be honest and tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
They know a lot more than they are saying as we have said since the beginning of the virus, there has never been an explanation for the never before seen over reaction, when it was supposedly just another SARs type virus.

 

[wayneL]

Fun fact in the current context:

There 15 deaths and 430 hospitisations in Australia, on average, *every single day* in the Australian Reich.

Another fun fact, there are on average 1.5 million deaths every single year still, from tuberculosis.

That is without even considering heart disease and whatnot from preventably poor diet.

...and the transmission Is all down to *Marketing*... Interestingly something Plato alerted us to nearly 2500 years ago.

 

[bellenuit]

Fun fact in the current context:

There 15 deaths and 430 hospitisations in Australia, on average, *every single day* in the Australian Reich.

Another fun fact, there are on average 1.5 million deaths every single year still, from tuberculosis.

That is without even considering heart disease and whatnot from preventably poor diet.

...and the transmission Is all down to *Marketing*... Interestingly something Plato alerted us to nearly 2500 years ago.

The issue isn't how many die each year from different causes, so why all the angst over COVID. It is that if left unchecked, COVID deaths could grow exponentially and spawn mutations that may not be treatable. They number of COVID deaths in Australia are low because we did something about it early on.

 

[wayneL]

The issue isn't how many die each year from different causes, so why all the angst over COVID. It is that if left unchecked, COVID deaths could grow exponentially and spawn mutations that may not be treatable. They number of COVID deaths in Australia are low because we did something about it early on.

Another fun fact.

Average age of covid death in Aus is 86, as opposed to the average life expectancy of 82.

The inconvenient fact is that people die from all sorts of things, grog, heart disease, injury, cancer, etc.

TBH, my chance of dying from covid is probably a hell of a lot less from (given my job and lifestyle) a kick in the head from a horse or other head injuries, cancer... mesothelioma (or similar) particularly, vehicle accident (50,000 km per year), cirrhosis... Or a hundred other things.

Meanwhile, you bedwetters are preventing ordinary folks from having a normal lifestyle. This is in resulting in all sorts other pathology and mental illness malady.

in the past I have struggled with mental illness issues as I have detailed on this forum. I am recovered from that, but for the first time in my life I have chosen a hill to actually die on, because this life as proposed by our fascist overlords is not worth living.

 

[bellenuit]

Covid-19 vaccines saved nearly 280,000 lives in the US, new research estimates​

Covid-19 vaccines saved nearly 280,000 lives in the US, new research estimates

Covid-19 vaccines saved hundreds of thousands of lives and prevented more than a million hospitalizations in the United States, according to new estimates from researchers at Yale University and the Commonwealth Fund.

edition.cnn.com

 

[rederob]

I think you pretty well nailed it.
I don't want the virus, I don't want the vaccine, but I do want to travel.
It is a shame the Governments of the world can't be honest and tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
They know a lot more than they are saying as we have said since the beginning of the virus, there has never been an explanation for the never before seen over reaction, when it was supposedly just another SARs type virus.

SARS-CoV-2 is the second iteration of SARS, so it is "another SARs type virus".
It is much more infectious although it has about the same case fatality rate.
I have no idea what you think the government is hiding, except maybe some extra doses of vaccine it seems able to roll out when called for.
We have had a window on the rest of the world in terms of how covid can rip through nations and destroy GDP, especially when lax measures at mitigation prevail.
The longer covid is globally rampant, the more clades/variants it will spawn, as noted below:

And as we know, these vary in terms of most susceptible age groups, symptoms, infectiousness, and case fatality rate.
Those posting here and thinking covid is similar to the flu are completely mistaken. The medical evidence is overwhelming on this point.
However, the greater problem may to prove to be "long covid". In the UK extrapolated data suggest as many as 2 million have suffered or are still suffering symptoms. That's a huge additional burden on public health systems and also on the workforce.