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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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satanoperca said:
"Pandemics are large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area and cause significant economic, social, and political disruption."
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The current situation ticks most of those boxes with the only arguable one being what constitutes "greatly" in the context of increasing mortality.

3383 reported deaths thus far - is that enough or not? It's bigger than any recent transport accident for example so as a single incident it's getting up there.

For the rest though, well it's widespread geographically, it's definitely causing significant disruption and so on.

It's not a pandemic in the same way that a ute is not a car but it's rather close.
 
until they run out of trees coz the lumberjacks are all home coughing with a fever
 
qldfrog said:
Sorry but who cares about your definition , there is a WHO one, feel unlighted and look for it
Over time I have grown old and get tired of people making comment without having any clue.
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Wow, a frog does always show it colours.

No clue, seems that a frog knows better. Please enlighten, I am also old, but not naive.

Maybe the frog is old, hasn't look after oneself, exercised, eaten well or appreciated those around the pond with love and has issues with understanding that life does not go on forever.

Surely the frog who has access to a computer can buy a mask to safe guard his/hers detorating age against the virus that is no different to the many other viruses that we me humans have to live with.

But do please engage in a conversion other than, have no clue, so pre school
 
Smurf1976 said:
3383 reported deaths thus far - is that enough or not?
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While 3383 deaths is not to be dis respected, it does not define a timeline, this is a share forum and time is important, so no 50,000 deaths is not important if over a time period of month and constituents a world population of 5,300,000. It is normal attrition.

This is life, we all have to die at some time, whether it be from a virus, prostate cancer, cancer, heart failure, sh--it the human physical body breaking down etc ....

The things is can you or anyone on this forum accept death?
 
satanoperca said:
The things is can you or anyone on this forum accept death?
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Of course I accept that I will someday die. Everyone knows that from a fairly young age and most people have at least some plans in place for the inevitable.

Just as I accept that everything I own will ultimately be consumed, sold to someone else, recycled or dumped in landfill. Ultimately that's going to happen to every single thing be it something I consider valuable or something purely utilitarian.

The issue here though is about excess deaths. People passing away at a time and under circumstances where they would not normally be expected to die. Most people will find that difficult to accept and not unreasonably so.

Same as most people would object if their accounts go to zero suddenly. Sure, ultimately that's going to happen but there's a difference between someone spending or donating the money of their own accord versus having it stolen.

Looking at the situation right now, the number infected globally has officially passed 100,000 and this is disrupting and in some cases outright preventing the normal operation of everything from education to exhibitions to the tourism industry to the stock market to supermarkets. It is by no means a small impact.

That said, I do agree with those pointing out that the death rate isn't really 3.4%. A more accurate statement would be to say that the death rate is 3.4% among those who develop symptoms serious enough to seek medical attention.

Also I agree that it's not going to be the end of all life on earth and so on. We will go on.

Reality though is that this is going to be one of those events that is still discussed years and even decades after it's over. Add it to the list along with the GFC, September 11 2001, Chernobyl, the shooting of JFK, both World Wars, the Great Depression and so on. Hopefully it's not as bad as some of those but it's one of those things that people not yet born will be at least somewhat aware of having occurred by the time they're an adult.

There's also the personal factor. How many old people would there be right now who are aware of this and thinking that's it, they're going to die? It's going to be stuffing up their mental health etc beyond belief.
 
sptrawler said:
I think that is the worst part of this.
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There's one in my own family and we had "the" discussion a few hours ago.

They seriously think there's a chance they'll soon be dead and based on all I can find out about this, their chance of death would be significant if they were to contract the disease (versus living a few more years otherwise). They tick the boxes so far as risk factors are concerned yes.

The whole thing's going to be stressing a lot of people out. Worries about their own health or that of family or friends if they're in an at risk group. Worries among casual workers about losing income and can't pay the bills. Businesses struggling. Etc.

There's not too many for whom there won't be at least some concern about something even if it does bring opportunity via investment once we near a bottom. Need to be alive to do that.....
 
Fully agree.
But I think there is a bit of complacency happening with the belief that only old people die of it
And the idea behind is:
they die of this but would die of something anyway..
I fall victim of this attitude too and am not really fearing the virus as a death potential

What is old? at 20, any 40y person is an old fart..
In my mind old people is 75 or more, maybe sick .
The gov reports usually say elderly suffering of condition etc DO NOT PANIC
Problem is I do not have any real figure:
have you seen a graph showing death by age? and better requiring time in ICU?
First death in France outside tourist was a french teacher 60y old. among first US affecteds was a 50y old.
The guy who died in China after leaving the hospital as cleared and got a relapse was from memory 28 or 38,
the dead doctor famous for raising the alarm was in his 40s?
Anecdotally, this does not fit with the "only old people die".

How many of the seriously sick requiring hospital stay are actually below 75?
Or is this data kept hidden to restrict panic?
Only old people die
is different from only old people in ICU die, especially if /when ICU beds are at capacity
28y old on respirator: survives
75y old on respirator: dies
28y old on a bed in the corridor of a collapsing health service?
would be interested to hear from any related report
 

I understand your point but Corona is not business as usual, 20% require hospital care 5% require ICU pick any numbers you like but Australia is not setup to treat those numbers in the time span of a contagion which this will be.

Those numbers will displace normal day to day emergency care and the knock on effect will likely increase the fatality rate of other preventable conditions.

Of course it will be all far more serious if containment can't slow the infection rate.

Its a big deal.
 

Where are you getting these figures from?

20% require hospitalization? Sounds like a bit number, just after some evidence.
 
Smurf1976 said:
That said, I do agree with those pointing out that the death rate isn't really 3.4%. A more accurate statement would be to say that the death rate is 3.4% among those who develop symptoms serious enough to seek medical attention.
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This is a correct statement, unfortunately, people are stupid and will only read 3.4% of people will die.
 
satanoperca said:
Where are you getting these figures from?

20% require hospitalization? Sounds like a bit number, just after some evidence.
Click to expand...

Those numbers have been out there for some time and its been taken very seriously by Australia's medical fraternity, the death rate isn't the only problem but as I aid before pick any number you like its still a very serious problem well beyond previous flu epidemics.

Worth reading up on the Italian outbreak


https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a723a2-5c9e-11ea-ac50-18701e14e06d_story.html
 
The problem is they need to force oxygen down your lungs. Only so many beds and spots. You may also need to be knocked out to breathe properly. People will die if the numbers get too high because care will be unavailable.
We can't even stock toilet paper rfs.

I'm still unsure of how bad the illness is because it's hard to find info on exactly what is going on.
I think satanop numbers are correct at this point. That can all change if mismanaged of course. But numbers should be a lot worse in China, Iran, Italy if this thing were as bad as the scare campaign.

Time will tell though.
 
Situation in Melbourne could get serious. Interestingly Toorak is largely populated with older very wealthy people.

Melbourne GP clinic closed after doctor tests positive for coronavirus
Updated 27 minutes ago

Photo: The Toorak Clinic has been temporarily closed in the wake of the GP testing positive. (Google Maps)
A doctor who recently returned from the US and since treated dozens of patients has become Victoria's 11th confirmed coronavirus case, health authorities have said.

State Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said the GP was confirmed to have the virus last night, six days after returning from overseas, and was now recovering at home.

The doctor, from the Toorak Clinic in Malvern Road, consulted about 70 patients between March 2 and yesterday, Ms Mikakos said.

He also treated two patients at a nursing home in Malvern during that time.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-07/coronavirus-infects-melbourne-doctor/12023438
 
Some thoughts on the GP in Toorak who has fallen ill with the Coronavirus.

He treated 70 patients. They were, by definition, already ill. Client profile from the area would be largely older woman in their 60-80's. At a minimum he would have taken blood pressure, temperature and possibly done respiratory checks - tap the back and chest. These are all close action activities.

70 clients over 5 days is only 14 a day. That suggests relatively long consultations 20 min plus.
This doesn't include other staff at the clinic - ie other doctors, office admin.
The doctor himself is in his 70's.

The two patients he saw in the nursing home would have been even more fragile with some current additional illness or general deterioration. Depending on when he saw them they would have been attended by a number of staff for various activities. If they were still walking they would also be having meals with a regular table of people.

All of the patients would have either gone home to families or friends or possibly had family visit them. Husbands, children, visitors, home help etc

Every one of these direct and indirect contacts should be in isolation for 14 days. I'd be surprised if the final number was less than 500 people. The nursing home alone would be a real concern.

I would be amazed if, somehow, no one else has picked up the virus.
 
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qldfrog said:
I think there is a bit of complacency happening with the belief that only old people die of it
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The figures I’ve seen are to the effect that under age 40 the risk is not zero but it’s about 0.2% of those diagnosed.

From 40 onwards it goes up with pre-existing medical conditions being a major factor.

Now the thing about someone having an existing medical issue is that under normal circumstances someone can live literally decades with that.

I’m no doctor but that’s what I’ve read from sources which seemed reasonable but obviously I can’t confirm it.

At a personal level well I know two people who I have major concerns about if they were to get this since both fit the characteristics of those reported to be ending up dead due to this. Both would be expecting to live a few more years under normal circumstances. One is immediate family.

It’s much the same as if someone dies due to being shot or falling off a building under construction. Arguments that we’re all dead eventually anyway don’t cut it at least in developed countries.

It also concerns me where this could end up politically given the origins of it. It’s the sort of thing which could stir up sentiment and trigger something worse than the virus itself.
 
basilio said:
The nursing home alone would be a real concern.
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The very nature of nursing homes is that if one person gets it then fair chance they all get it.

A building full of people all of whom are in relatively poor health, with plety of people coming and going from outside and they’re nowhere even remotely close to a hospital in terms of disinfecting things and so on.
 
Holy snapping @ssholes, Margaret!

This is starting to happen all over. Can people just get a grip!

 
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