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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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Knobby22 said:
No, it has to work. I am more confident of the University of Queensland's vaccine.
Anyway I know you said it in jest but I have no desire for the autocrats to hoodwink us.
Speaking of which I noticed the death rate has halved in the USA since Trump took over the hospital collection figures. My guestimate is about 2000 deaths a day but they are only reporting 400.
Click to expand...

I did read somewhere that the improvement in treatments had 1/2 the death rate in the US.


Likely written by Trump :)
 
Anyone got the latest figures for deaths of doctors and nurses?
 
Knobby22 said:
No, it has to work. I am more confident of the University of Queensland's vaccine.
Anyway I know you said it in jest but I have no desire for the autocrats to hoodwink us.
Speaking of which I noticed the death rate has halved in the USA since Trump took over the hospital collection figures. My guestimate is about 2000 deaths a day but they are only reporting 400.
Click to expand...
as if hoodwinking is not happening here daily???
And obviously, it can only be because Trump is fudging the figures? or could it be we have less deaths?
As most other countries are experiencing....
As we did not get a first wave and are well into winter conditions, we might soon have the privilege to be the only place with increasing number of deaths (real deaths ..).
 
Three deaths in Victoria, the paper said 100+ years, 90 and 80, sad to see those people make it to such a wonderful age and then die because of some imported virus.

Again we see age as the common factor in mortality

I wonder is someone somewhere doing blood tests on the deceased looking for common links, they have done some OS which is where they discovered the Vitamin D link.

I wonder about the flu vaccine, most old people have the flu vaccine and most deaths are old people.................... statistics can be twisted around but I do wonder
 
Knobby22 said:
No, it has to work. I am more confident of the University of Queensland's vaccine.
Anyway I know you said it in jest but I have no desire for the autocrats to hoodwink us.
Speaking of which I noticed the death rate has halved in the USA since Trump took over the hospital collection figures. My guestimate is about 2000 deaths a day but they are only reporting 400.
Click to expand...

I've noticed on Worldometers that there is often a decline over Sunday/Monday & then the numbers creep back up as the week progresses.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 
qldfrog said:
As we did not get a first wave and are well into winter conditions, we might soon have the privilege to be the only place with increasing number of deaths (real deaths ..).
Click to expand...
Yes, using data, if total deaths double in Australia, we will still have about 120 nations ahead of us.
And on the issue of "temperature" being a factor, why is India experiencing an increasing death rate:
upload_2020-7-21_18-45-56.png

Just an FYI but New Delhi won't have a forecast minimum below 26 celsius in the next fortnight so obviously it has to be "heat" adding to the death rate (using @qldfrog's rationale).
 
qldfrog said:
In another thread, we are discussing the difference between peak and average power demand, this is the same analogy:
What count is how many lives will be list overall inc suicides and lives lost due to economic hit, unperformed health checks etc.so wait a few years and be open minded about the end figures in Sweden
Smooth the curve is a valid concept, suppression a wet dream in either national or world scale at this stage.all i am saying
Click to expand...
yes, lots of factors.

i might have to do some research on Sweden
 
The 'good' thing is that now we will have a delayed first wave, delayed at a huge cost but at least we know how to deal with it properly medically (does not mean we win, but much better now), and if beds are lacking now, they would never have been available;
The trouble is that we have now wasted our initial lockdown with that initial pretense at eradication
-> it will be much harder to implement the really needed minimal measures to curb the curve as people will not take a second forced lockdown for the 1%, however sheeple Australians are , and however harsh fines will be applied;
What a waste! But the end of the tunnel will be near and we will reach as stable situation as in Europe, moreover, transmission rate will decrease once we reach the 14C or above in a few months as experienced the world over, and scientifically proven
 
What we suspected, may well be starting to manifest, maybe there is a long term component in this virus. Until the long term ramifications of the virus are known, it certainly would be best not to contract it in the first place, IMO.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...symptoms-linger-in-young-20200721-p55dz7.html
From the article:
The analysis, published in the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare's national health report card, warns of COVID-19’s potential to "seriously affect not just those who are elderly or in very poor health, but also people who may not have been considered to be at the highest risk."

It comes as initial observations from a UNSW Kirby Institute study of the long-term effects of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 indicates that one in five patients experience ongoing symptoms, including breathlessness, fatigue, anxiety and "brain fog".

It will be interesting to see the data surrounding those who have had the virus, when 10 years have elapsed.
 
qldfrog said:
What a waste! But the end of the tunnel will be near and we will reach as stable situation as in Europe, moreover, transmission rate will decrease once we reach the 14C or above in a few months as experienced the world over, and scientifically proven
Click to expand...
Zero scientific proof.
The USA's positivity and death rates are increasing, and it's moved from autumn to summer - so getting hotter means more deaths!
Here's what has been happening in Mexico as summer came around:
upload_2020-7-23_10-12-19.png


About the best we can say is that in cold winters people generally are more susceptible to colds and viruses. However, viral transmission is not reliant on temperature and, in the case of COV19, clearly related to "behaviour" and poor mitigation controls.
 
Interesting that in the 'Daily Telegraph', there is an article that the BLM organisers are in the Supreme Court, fighting against the NSW police from stopping the event to be held in 5 days.
Meanwhile I can't find a thing about it in the SMH, confusing when you consider the public interest angle, one would have thought the SMH would have run it .
 
rederob said:
Zero scientific proof.
The USA's positivity and death rates are increasing, and it's moved from autumn to summer - so getting hotter means more deaths!
Here's what has been happening in Mexico as summer came around:
View attachment 106356

About the best we can say is that in cold winters people generally are more susceptible to colds and viruses. However, viral transmission is not reliant on temperature and, in the case of COV19, clearly related to "behaviour" and poor mitigation controls.
Click to expand...

Unlike the flu season being winter COV19 appears to be 12 months of the year.

What I find amazing is the opinion its not much more than a bad flu is still around while thousands of medical staff world wide have died of COV19 yet those numbers don't exist for any flu.
 
IFocus said:
Unlike the flu season being winter COV19 appears to be 12 months of the year.

What I find amazing is the opinion its not much more than a bad flu is still around while thousands of medical staff world wide have died of COV19 yet those numbers don't exist for any flu.
Click to expand...
As I said, "spread" is about behaviour/mitigation strategies as the data for Australia already shows the common flu has not resulted in the usual death rate.
The sad thing about some of the posts in this thread is the reluctance to appreciate the severity of COV19 over the flu in terms of infection rate, recovery duration, medical intervention requirement, stress on hospital systems, morbidity, and that's aside from the attendant economic consequences related to workers and workplaces and, ultimately GDP loss.
 
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