Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[basilio]

New Guinea is the latest country to see a rapid surge in COVID 19. The health infrastructure is poor.
What happens if it goes really bad ?

Coronavirus cases in Papua New Guinea double in days
Port Moresby hospital hit by staff shortages after emergency department workers test positive, bringing case tally to 62
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/27/coronavirus-cases-in-papua-new-guinea-double-in-days

 

[moXJO]

Couldn't attend a funeral as was only 20 people allowed and over 400 wanted to attend. They had to drive the body past 3 pubs and a workplace for those that wanted to attend. They also livestreamed it to the pub.

A lot of people did not get closure. I worry about the mental state of where a lot of people are at the moment. I think the mental health repercussions of living under covid will be a generational problem.

 

[Sdajii]

New Guinea is the latest country to see a rapid surge in COVID 19. The health infrastructure is poor.
What happens if it goes really bad ?

Coronavirus cases in Papua New Guinea double in days
Port Moresby hospital hit by staff shortages after emergency department workers test positive, bringing case tally to 62
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/27/coronavirus-cases-in-papua-new-guinea-double-in-days

A grand total of 62 active cases! Oh my!

New Guinea isn't a country by the way.

This highlights the futility of the current global insanity. Papua New Guinea had 11 cases, all recovered months ago. The country had no cases. With all the restrictions, precautions, and extra knowledge we have now compared to early in the year, an outbreak occurred anyway.

Look at Australia. The virus came to Australia early in the year, no one was ready, no one knew anything about it, no one was wearing masks, there was no lockdown, we peaked at around 5,000 known cases. *THEN* we went crazy, put many millions of Australian people out of work, destroyed countless businesses, left most people stressed, many depressed (I personally went through a very rough patch early on, I'm doing well now after radically restructuring my life after losing my business etc etc, but I currently have multiple friends with depression, extreme financial issues, and even some with suicidal ideation, and this seems to be a pretty big trend across the country and globally). Despite all of these extreme measures, a few little mistakes (the official narrative is that it was due to a handful of individual security guards not following protocols) we suddenly officially have more cases now than before.

Are we seeing the big picture yet? You can't expect zero mistakes from tens of millions of people. If you can't erradicate it completely, which has literally never even been a goal of the Australian strategy, you will eventually have outbreaks. You can't keep people locked up forever because eventually in a democracy they will rebel (sure, in China or North Korea they will obey under fear of death/extreme punitive measures, but not in a democracy) and it's not ongoingly financially sustainable.

We literally had the best part of three months of constant dropping in cases, and then bang, today we have literally around 10 times as many confirmed active cases as the figure of one month ago. That's today, at the time when we know the most about it, with a population more willing and more able than ever (supposedly, and according to their own claims) before to stop it. And yet bang, a few people being silly and we have an explosion of thousands of cases, and still rapidly rising.

How do people think this makes sense? What exactly are we trying to achieve in our extraordinarily expensive and destructive quest to slightly delay the inevitable? Do these real world events not demonstrate the inevitability of spread? What will?

The global number of active cases continues to rise. The overall pattern can not be changed, and our most extreme efforts, which are extremely costly in terms of money, human wellbeing, and life, simply modify the timeframe just slightly.

 

[basilio]

Couldn't attend a funeral as was only 20 people allowed and over 400 wanted to attend. They had to drive the body past 3 pubs and a workplace for those that wanted to attend. They also livestreamed it to the pub.

A lot of people did not get closure. I worry about the mental state of where a lot of people are at the moment. I think the mental health repercussions of living under covid will be a generational problem.

It is very tough getting closure when wanting to farewell close friends and family who have died. Already had three friends and family pass away with similar very limited funerals.

But the unflinching reality is that large funerals held during this COVID crisis have killed scores more people people who came to pay their respects. Spread of the contagion during large funerals was horrific.
Very difficult but essential.

https://www.seniorsnews.com.au/news/17-family-members-infected-at-funeral/3986050/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...ing-funeral-infected-100-200702100210137.html

 

[qldfrog]

A grand total of 62 active cases! Oh my!

New Guinea isn't a country by the way.

This highlights the futility of the current global insanity. Papua New Guinea had 11 cases, all recovered months ago. The country had no cases. With all the restrictions, precautions, and extra knowledge we have now compared to early in the year, an outbreak occurred anyway.

Look at Australia. The virus came to Australia early in the year, no one was ready, no one knew anything about it, no one was wearing masks, there was no lockdown, we peaked at around 5,000 known cases. *THEN* we went crazy, put many millions of Australian people out of work, destroyed countless businesses, left most people stressed, many depressed (I personally went through a very rough patch early on, I'm doing well now after radically restructuring my life after losing my business etc etc, but I currently have multiple friends with depression, extreme financial issues, and even some with suicidal ideation, and this seems to be a pretty big trend across the country and globally). Despite all of these extreme measures, a few little mistakes (the official narrative is that it was due to a handful of individual security guards not following protocols) we suddenly officially have more cases now than before.

Are we seeing the big picture yet? You can't expect zero mistakes from tens of millions of people. If you can't erradicate it completely, which has literally never even been a goal of the Australian strategy, you will eventually have outbreaks. You can't keep people locked up forever because eventually in a democracy they will rebel (sure, in China or North Korea they will obey under fear of death/extreme punitive measures, but not in a democracy) and it's not ongoingly financially sustainable.

We literally had the best part of three months of constant dropping in cases, and then bang, today we have literally around 10 times as many confirmed active cases as the figure of one month ago. That's today, at the time when we know the most about it, with a population more willing and more able than ever (supposedly, and according to their own claims) before to stop it. And yet bang, a few people being silly and we have an explosion of thousands of cases, and still rapidly rising.

How do people think this makes sense? What exactly are we trying to achieve in our extraordinarily expensive and destructive quest to slightly delay the inevitable? Do these real world events not demonstrate the inevitability of spread? What will?

The global number of active cases continues to rise. The overall pattern can not be changed, and our most extreme efforts, which are extremely costly in terms of money, human wellbeing, and life, simply modify the timeframe just slightly.

The trouble with your post is that being right, you will incite anger from people whose whole view and reasoning is collapsing in front of facts.nothing worse than someone realising and knowing he/she was wrong and not admitting it.
Wait till the fake vaccine is released with a given efficiency given at 75 or 80pc..basically placebo
We will loose people:thousands and may they RIP but let the first wave come
people will not realise it, but it is actually the better outcome vs more deaths on a longer period and more economic devastation
But people know my views
Numbers before emotions

 

[Sdajii]

The trouble with your post is that being right, you will incite anger from people whose whole view and reasoning is collapsing in front of facts.nothing worse than someone realising and knowing he/she was wrong and not admitting it.
Wait till the fake vaccine is released with a given efficiency given at 75 or 80pc..basically placebo
We will loose people:thousands and may they RIP but let the first wave come
people will not realise it, but it is actually the better outcome vs more deaths on a longer period and more economic devastation
But people know my views
Numbers before emotions

Spot on. It's easy to fool people but extremely difficult to make them realise they've been fooled. People don't like admitting that they were wrong.

And yep, spot on about the fake vaccine. It's the only way for them to save face. It will be little more than a placebo, but the probably situation will be to say:

'This vaccine is the best we have to offer, and now that we have it, it will at least help to mitigate the impact by reducing numbers and reducing the severity of infections (never mind the fact that the reduction in both will be completely negligible!), we are now as prepared as we can be and must face the consequences'

We may see a resurrection of the 'flattening the curve' narrative, and since we won't have a comparison curve and the disease is far more mild than most assumed in early 2020, it will be easy for them to claim success and most people will believe (utterly wrongly) that the alternative would have been far worse, simply because they never got to see it.

In reality, it will be the same thing, but after having screwed the economy, mental health, etc etc, for no reason first.

 

[wayneL]

 

[sptrawler]

It is a very interesting aspect of post GFC life, it shows how public opinion is so very fickle IMO, when life was bubbling along everyone was complaining about the price of everything e.g electricity, rent, housing, cost of living.
Now we have the situation where rents and house prices are falling and because no one can travel, the cost of living has reduced, unemployment has risen 4% but the ones who are working are doing better. The self funded are doing it tough so certain sectors of politics must be thrilled, the only glaring sector struggling appears to be the sector that grew fat through the boom years.
The government have kept total deaths down to a commendable level, so the purge continues.
The reset that everyone was asking for appears to be happening, even the climate activists are getting a reduction in emissions, no one appears to thinking about the positives.

 

[qldfrog]

Spot on. It's easy to fool people but extremely difficult to make them realise they've been fooled. People don't like admitting that they were wrong.

And yep, spot on about the fake vaccine. It's the only way for them to save face. It will be little more than a placebo, but the probably situation will be to say:

'This vaccine is the best we have to offer, and now that we have it, it will at least help to mitigate the impact by reducing numbers and reducing the severity of infections (never mind the fact that the reduction in both will be completely negligible!), we are now as prepared as we can be and must face the consequences'

We may see a resurrection of the 'flattening the curve' narrative, and since we won't have a comparison curve and the disease is far more mild than most assumed in early 2020, it will be easy for them to claim success and most people will believe (utterly wrongly) that the alternative would have been far worse, simply because they never got to see it.

In reality, it will be the same thing, but after having screwed the economy, mental health, etc etc, for no reason first.

My view but actually looking forward to the fake vaccine so that we can restart living.
Trouble is it will probably be mandatory to travel etc and i will hate injecting myself with untested crap with potential terrible effects.no one will know.
Can i have the saline solution please
Anyway, the earlier the better and we will only have 10000 casualties...

 

[qldfrog]

A

My view but actually looking forward to the fake vaccine so that we can restart living.
Trouble is it will probably be mandatory to travel etc and i will hate injecting myself with untested crap with potential terrible effects.no one will know.
Can i have the saline solution please
Anyway, the earlier the better and we will only have 10000 casualties...

by the way not anti vax, i got basically everything inc yellow fever, rabies you name it, hep, etc etc

 

[rederob]

The trouble with your post is that being right, you will incite anger from people whose whole view and reasoning is collapsing in front of facts.nothing worse than someone realising and knowing he/she was wrong and not admitting it.

Aside from some international and interstate tourism, Queensland is doing pretty well at the moment. I'm off to the footy next weekend to watch the Suns thump GWS. The fact seems to be one where States/Territories closing borders has worked to keep multimillion Australians feeling relatively safe and returning to near business as usual.

Wait till the fake vaccine is released with a given efficiency given at 75 or 80pc..basically placebo

One of your many baseless guesses. Any +70% effective vaccine provides herd immunity. A placebo will do zip.

We will loose people:thousands and may they RIP but let the first wave come
people will not realise it, but it is actually the better outcome vs more deaths on a longer period and more economic devastation

Why?
Many other countries have COV19 under control via sustained mitigation practices.
Wanting another Victoria when it can and is being avoided does not make much sense.

Spot on. It's easy to fool people but extremely difficult to make them realise they've been fooled. People don't like admitting that they were wrong.

Preventable deaths don't fool anyone.

'This vaccine is the best we have to offer, and now that we have it, it will at least help to mitigate the impact by reducing numbers and reducing the severity of infections (never mind the fact that the reduction in both will be completely negligible!), we are now as prepared as we can be and must face the consequences'

Not one epidemiologist would say that, so your seem to be clutching at straws.
Vaccine availability would immediately open up international travel and tourism.

 

[basilio]

No surprise this is happening..

Daniel Andrews slams behaviour in 'Bunnings Karen' mask video

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has called out the "appalling" behaviour of people flouting Melbourne's strict coronavirus restrictions.

Key points:

• A viral video shows a woman threatening to sue Bunnings over perceived discrimination
• Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said the behaviour was "appalling"
• Wesfarmers Group boss Rob Scott said he was proud of his staff

The Premier's comments came in the wake of a video which went viral over the weekend, filmed by a woman who confronted Bunnings staff who asked her to wear a mask in one of the hardware chain's Melbourne stores.

In the video, the woman, dubbed a 'Karen' by many social media users, says "It's my right as a living woman to do what I want" and threatens to sue Bunnings "for being in breach" of the 1948 Charter of Human Rights.

"You are not authorised to ask me or question me about it," she said. "You're discriminating against me.

"I actually don't [have to wear a mask] and you're not authorised by the Australian Government to even question me about it.

"I can have you sued personally for discriminating against me as a woman."

And it goes on...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-27/leaders-respond-to-bunnings-karen-mask-video/12494382

 

[sptrawler]

Unless they make it compulsory, someone will always push the boundaries.

 

[basilio]

Unless they make it compulsory, someone will always push the boundaries.

Wearing a mask in a public place is now compulsory in Victoria. This woman is just trying create a self righteous stir.

A bit on an update on her complete BS about discrimnionation, violation of human rights etc from a lawyer.
Melbourne lawyer and activist Paul Kidd knows a thing or two about discrimination, and explained just how ill-informed the woman is in a Twitter thread:

1. "CAN BUNNINGS FORCE YOU TO WEAR A MASK? No! They have no right to. BUT every Bunnings store is private property, and they decide who comes into their store, and can set conditions. If they ask you to put on a mask or leave, and you don't leave, that's the crime of trespass.
2. IS IT DISCRIMINATION TO DEMAND YOU WEAR A MASK? Discrimination in Victoria means treating someone unfavourably because of a protected attribute, such as their sex/gender, age or disability. The woman in the video claims that Bunnings are discriminating against her on the of that group. And no, 'people (or women) who don't want to wear masks' isn't a protected group for that purpose. The scope of the discrimination law is set out in statute.
3. 'YOU CAN BE SUED PERSONALLY' FOR DISCRIMINATION STOP threatening ordinary workers/their managers for acting on their employers' instructions. Every one of us is going through this pandemic – folks working in Bunnings OR ANYWHERE shouldn't be the target of your misplaced anger.
4. YOU CAN BE SUED UNDER THE 1948 CHARTER OF HUMAN RIGHTS There is no such document and you cannot be 'sued' under either it (q.e.d.) or under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948), because (insofar as it binds anybody) it binds countries, not individuals.
5. I AM NOT GOING TO STOP RECORDING YOU, IT IS MY RIGHT No, you don't have any 'right' to record Dan the Bunnings Manager without his consent, in a private place. Bunnings decides what's allowed in their stores."

The rest of the story is worth reading. The woman does have doctors certificate to enable her to go out without a mask. WTF for who knows.
https://honey.nine.com.au/latest/re...onavirus/c89a8bad-4e87-4200-af60-66093dd86b68

 

[IFocus]

I am really worried about all those people who are going to have O2 deficiency because they have to wear a mask..........you know like brain surgeons etc.......

 

[wayneL]

I have no doubt @basilio is wearing one, but I would like to see evidence that @rederob and @IFocus are wearing them in their respective states.

I'm in Qld and I see maybe 1/200 wearing one... And absolutely nobody in my local area (outer bogan suburbs).

My outlaws report that it is probably pretty similar in Western Australia.

Photographic evidence will be accepted.

 

[Sdajii]

My view but actually looking forward to the fake vaccine so that we can restart living.
Trouble is it will probably be mandatory to travel etc and i will hate injecting myself with untested crap with potential terrible effects.no one will know.
Can i have the saline solution please
Anyway, the earlier the better and we will only have 10000 casualties...

Yeah, I have pretty similar thoughts. I've never before been anti vax, I totally recognise the good which vaccinations have done for the world, I came from a hardcore antivax family but as a teenager old enough to understand the world I took it upon myself to get the vaccinations I missed as a child, hopefully I managed to get them all, and I've voluntarily paid for some of the non essential ones too, plus I try to get the flu vaccines when I'm in Australia at the right time in the season (which I'm usually not, but when it's an option I do it). But, this is the first time I'm really sus about a vaccine and I'd prefer not to have it. I'm reasonably sure it will be fairly safe, but for two reasons it will be by far the riskiest vaccine given to the public for decades. #1) Is the unprecedentedly low amount of testing and development time; usually vaccines take many years to develop and test, and they're trying to rush this one through in a fraction of the time usually considered essential to be sure of reasonable safety. #2) Is that there is a massive demand to rush this through even if it's not necessarily safe (a much greater willingness to turn a blind eye to possible risks).
A low ability to detect risks does not mix well with a lower motivation to find them and a higher motivation to tolerate or ignore them.

The above wouldn't concern me so much if the virus was either really really bad, or even if the vaccine was effective, but when neither is the case, this is not a vaccine I want to be taking.

There is a very serious risk of this vaccine causing a massive global backlash against vaccines; the anti vaccers are already quite a considerable force with huge numbers. If we force people to take an unsafe and ineffective vaccine, there will be a huge legitimisation of their movement. If a lot of people get sick or have whatever negative effect, it'll be devastating for the moment, and since it will be demonstrably ineffective, it will clearly make people say 'See? Vaccines don't work anyway!'. This will be the most high profile vaccine in history, which is the absolute worst possible one to get wrong, and that's almost certainly going to be what happens.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I don't think many people will be lining up for this vaccine because the sense of urgency suggests that the vaccine has been rushed; that is if they can even develop a vaccine.

 

[Sdajii]

I don't think many people will be lining up for this vaccine because the sense of urgency suggests that the vaccine has been rushed; that is if they can even develop a vaccine.

No vaccine is 100% safe or 100% effective. This one will probably be safe (definitely rushed and less certain than we'd want or usually accept or should accept now) and is effectively guaranteed not to be effective. To create a vaccine for this virus is technically very much equivalent to creating a vaccine for SARS (it's closely related, works in a similar way, a vaccine would correspondingly be much the same thing but with a different set of antigens to play with, which functionally is no different in terms of the difficulty or likelihood of success). As with literally every other coronavirus ever worked with (there have been many and they've been at it for many decades, including the best part of 20 years on SARS), there has been no success.

They can doubtlessly produce a 'vaccine' which will induce the production of antibodies by the immune system, which will sort of help... in the same way that pouring a cup of water on a house protects it from bushfires (barely at all, almost no chance of preventing the house catching fire, and only if the bushfire comes along shortly after you pour the glass of water). But politically, they absolutely need a vaccine, it is almost unconditional at this point, so in the absence of an effective one, a pretend one will have to do.

If you think the system would never allow such a farce, just take a look at any of the blatant farcical claims and absurd actions by the WHO and other political organisations around the world so far this year.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

No vaccine is 100% safe or 100% effective. This one will probably be safe (definitely rushed and less certain than we'd want or usually accept or should accept now) and is effectively guaranteed not to be effective. To create a vaccine for this virus is technically very much equivalent to creating a vaccine for SARS (it's closely related, works in a similar way, a vaccine would correspondingly be much the same thing but with a different set of antigens to play with, which functionally is no different in terms of the difficulty or likelihood of success). As with literally every other coronavirus ever worked with (there have been many and they've been at it for many decades, including the best part of 20 years on SARS), there has been no success.

They can doubtlessly produce a 'vaccine' which will induce the production of antibodies by the immune system, which will sort of help... in the same way that pouring a cup of water on a house protects it from bushfires (barely at all, almost no chance of preventing the house catching fire, and only if the bushfire comes along shortly after you pour the glass of water). But politically, they absolutely need a vaccine, it is almost unconditional at this point, so in the absence of an effective one, a pretend one will have to do.

If you think the system would never allow such a farce, just take a look at any of the blatant farcical claims and absurd actions by the WHO and other political organisations around the world so far this year.

And then when people are still getting the virus, they will turn on the politicians. What you're suggesting is political suicide. I don't think politicians would be stupid enough to support an ineffective vaccine.