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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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sptrawler said:
Hello Bas but isn't that what we've been saying since it broke out? best not to get it, as there is reportedly a HIV component and something could lay dormant:rolleyes:. What do most who have HIV normally succumb to?
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I don't know enough about that HIV component. My highlighting the recognition of the ongoing effects was to reinforce the need for keeping people from catching the virus in the first place.

Unfortunately there are still many people who believe it's effects are relatively small potatoes in terms of mortality ie lots of people die from the flu whats the deal with this ?

We are discovering the deal seems to have many more consequences. Lets stay safe and work like hell to find some medical solution.
 
Masks are now mandatory in Victoria. I suspect this direction may spread further afield.
Excellent article on masks in teh Guardian. Practical, sensible.

How to stop your glasses steaming up – and 19 other essential facts about face masks
How often should you wash a cloth mask? And how effective are the disposable ones? The expert guide to choosing, wearing and caring for your face covering
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeand...and-19-other-essential-facts-about-face-masks
 
wayneL said:
Then this

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This is the "fake news" spreader in action.
Nowhere is there any evidence that flu shots have an impact on people contracting COV19.
Here's some light reading that puts Allan Cunningham's views into an epidemiological perspective:

Aaby P, Whittle H, Benn CS (2012 Jun 14). Vaccine programmes must consider their effect on general resistance. BMJ; 344: e3769.

Abrams JY, Weintraub ES, Baggs JM et al. (2015). Childhood vaccines and Kawasaki disease, Vaccine Safety Datalink,1996-2006. Vaccine; 33: 382-387.

Ausiello CM, Urbani F, La Sala A et al. (1997 Jun). Vaccine- and Antigen-Dependent Type 1 and Type 2 Cytokine Induction after Primary Vaccination of Infants with Whole-Cell or Acellular Pertussis Vaccines. Infection and Immunity; 65(6): 2168-2174.

Bonetto C, Trotta F, Felicetti P et al. (2016). Vasculitis as an adverse event following immunization – Systematic literature review. Vaccine; 2016; 34: 6641-6651.

CDC (2018 Oct 16). Vaccines and Sudden Infant Death: Vaccines have not been shown to cause sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/sids.html [scroll down, click on Related Scientific Articles]

CDC (2019 Apr 10). Data and Statistics. Sudden Unexpected Infant Death and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/sids/data.htm

Cunningham AS (2019 May 9). Unlimited tolerance of vaccines? BMJ Rapid Responses. Available at: https://www.bmj.com/content/364/bmj.l1481/rr-21

Esposito S, Bianchini S, Dellepiane RM, Principi N (2016). Vaccines and Kawasaki disease; 15(3): 417-424.

Fine PEM, Smith PG (2007 Jan). Editorial: ‘Non-specific effects of vaccines’ – an important analytical insight, and call for a workshop. Tropical Medicine and International Health; 12(1): 1-4. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01794.x

Fine PEM, Williams TN, Aaby P et al. (2009 Sep). Epidemiological studies of the ‘non-specific effects’ of vaccines: I – data collection in observational studies. Tropical Medicine and International Health; 14(9): 969-976. Available at:

Goldwater PN (2017 Aug). Infection: the neglected paradigm in SIDS research. 102(8): 767-772. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5537520/pdf/archdischild-20...

Harrison JA (2019a May 7). Response to Stone. BMJ Rapid Responses. Available at: https://www.bmj.com/content/364/bmj.l1481/rr-14

Harrison JA (2019b May 9). Response to Allan S. Cunningham. BMJ Rapid Responses. Available at: https://www.bmj.com/content/364/bmj.l1481/rr-22

Huang (2017 Jan). Vaccination and unexplained sudden death risk in Taiwanese infants. Pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety; 26(1): 17-25. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2009.02301.x

Lin (2017 Oct 31). The global epidemiology of Kawasaki disease: Review and future perspectives. Global Cardiology Science & Practice. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5856963/

Müller-Nordhorn J, Hettler-Chen CM, Keil T, Muckelbauer R (2015). Association between sudden infant death syndrome and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis immunisation: an ecological study. BMC Pediatrics. Available at: https://bmcpediatr.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12887-015-0318-7

Roos R (2003 Nov 19). Vaccines might have contributed to death of Army reservist. CIDRAP News. Available at: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/11/vaccines-might-have-c...

Saadatian-Elahi M, Aaby P, Shann F (2016 2016 Jul 25). Heterologous vaccine effects. Vaccine; 34: 3923-3930. Vaccine; 34(34): 3923-3930.

Talaat KR, Halsey NA, Cox AB et al. (2018 Mar). Rapid changes in serum cytokines and chemokines in response to inactivated influenza vaccination. Influenza and other respiratory viruses; 12(2): 202-210. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5820426/pdf/IRV-12-202.pdf

Uehara R, Belay ED (2012). Epidemiology of Kawasaki Disease in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Journal of Epidemiology; 22(2): 79-85.

Wikipedia. Kawasaki disease. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kawasaki_disease

Wikipedia. Sudden infant death syndrome. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_infant_death_syndrome

Wormsbecker AE, Johnson C, Bourns L et al. (2019 Jan 15). Demonstration of background rates of three conditions of interest for vaccine safety surveillance. PLOS One; 14(1). Available at: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0210833
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Ummmm, The BMJ, AKA the British medical journal is a wholly owned subsidiary of the British Medical Association which is the professional body that represents the UK medical profession.

I wouldn't really describe that as fake news Robbie
 
wayneL said:
Ummmm, The BMJ, AKA the British medical journal is a wholly owned subsidiary of the British Medical Association which is the professional body that represents the UK medical profession.

I wouldn't really describe that as fake news Robbie
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If there is actual evidence that flu vaccines affect COV19 then present it.
You have relied on what is effectively an "opinion" posted into the BMJ as if it were some sort of definitive article, and it is not.
If you do not understand the issue, then read what I have listed - including peer reviewed medical science references - to give perspective to Cunningham's piece; he has clutched at straws.
 
rederob said:
If there is actual evidence that flu vaccines affect COV19 then present it.
You have relied on what is effectively an "opinion" posted into the BMJ as if it were some sort of definitive article, and it is not.
If you do not understand the issue, then read what I have listed - including peer reviewed medical science references - to give perspective to Cunningham's piece; he has clutched at straws.
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The article should be taken at face value Robbie, as something worthy of investigation.

I thought it was interesting because in my own family it seems to be something that is observable, anecdotally.... And no I am not representing that is some sort of empirical truth just something that should be investigated.

That is hardly fake news and it is quite disingenuous of you to label it as such, that is what I am saying.
 
wayneL said:
More fake news

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/19/lockdown-may-cost-200k-lives-government-report-shows/

Lockdown may cost 200,000 lives, government report shows

Research shines a light on the reasons why the Government has been keen to lift lockdown, in spite of experts claiming it happened too soon
More than 200,000 people could die from the impact of lockdown and protecting the NHS, an official government report shows....
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It's indicative of the crap you have posted for years.
Wuhan was locked down harder and longer than anywhere on the planet, so where is there any evidence from real life that supports the article?
 
wayneL said:
The article should be taken at face value Robbie, as something worthy of investigation.

I thought it was interesting because in my own family it seems to be something that is observable, anecdotally.... And no I am not representing that is some sort of empirical truth just something that should be investigated.

That is hardly fake news and it is quite disingenuous of you to label it as such, that is what I am saying.
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It's a doctor's opinion.
It's not medical science.
Rather than accept his opinion, read the medical science links I provided that put Cunningham's views in perspective rather than continue to spread a tweet that I have seen dozens of times and is without merit.
 
rederob said:
It's indicative of the crap you have posted for years.
Wuhan was locked down harder and longer than anywhere on the planet, so where is there any evidence from real life that supports the article?
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Would you expect China to release accurate records of suicides/family violence or other causes of death ?
 
SirRumpole said:
Would you expect China to release accurate records of suicides/family violence or other causes of death ?
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I would expect real world evidence to be available.
Italy and Spain also endured hard lockdowns. Does their experience lend any support to @wayneL's linked article?
 
qldfrog said:
We will realise if we look at figures in a year that they fared as good bad as everyone else but just without lockdown...
Do not expect reading that in the mainstream media
Overreacting? Of course.
Initially valid response, but not anymore once we know more about virus.
Now used as a pretext ..
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so no where to put dead bodies (out of space)?
and what's used as a pretext?
 
grah33 said:
so no where to put dead bodies (out of space)?
and what's used as a pretext?
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In another thread, we are discussing the difference between peak and average power demand, this is the same analogy:
What count is how many lives will be list overall inc suicides and lives lost due to economic hit, unperformed health checks etc.so wait a few years and be open minded about the end figures in Sweden
Smooth the curve is a valid concept, suppression a wet dream in either national or world scale at this stage.all i am saying
 
Knobby22 said:
Good company AstraZeneca. Even if the vaccine doesn't work well enough to stop transmission, if it at least primes the body to fight it then many more people will get less sick and we can reopen the economies.
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Can we put this in context of my fake vaccine idea considering only 25% of infected people even develop fever? They could release sterile water injection today and save time and lives by achieving all what you mentioned.
Cheaper as well but who cares a few billions anymore
 
qldfrog said:
Can we put this in context of my fake vaccine idea considering only 25% of infected people even develop fever? They could release sterile water injection today and save time and lives by achieving all what you mentioned.
Cheaper as well but who cares a few billions anymore
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No, it has to work. I am more confident of the University of Queensland's vaccine.
Anyway I know you said it in jest but I have no desire for the autocrats to hoodwink us.
Speaking of which I noticed the death rate has halved in the USA since Trump took over the hospital collection figures. My guestimate is about 2000 deaths a day but they are only reporting 400.
 
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