greggles
I'll be back!
- Joined
- 28 July 2004
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I think we are talking past each other. When people talk of a copper shortage they are talking about copper that has been mined, processed and is ready for sale to those who wish to purchase it. They are not talking about copper ore that resides hundreds of metres under the Earth. The former is useful, the latter is not although may be in the future once millions of dollars has been spent digging it out of the ground and processing it into a form that can be used for industrial production.
Copper below the Earth is plentiful, copper mined and processed is not necessarily so. Copper mines take many years and mountains of capital to plan, build and then operate.
From your post I'm gathering that you think that there is going to be a issue with mining the copper, which will cause a shortage and a price boom.
General internet 2019? info.
1.4 billion cars ice on road
600 million other combustion engines
Let's say 1 billion of em to be made over x amount of time
1 billion X 25 kg copper = 25 million tons of copper
Wiki
"Copper demand
Total world production is about
18 million metric tons per year.
Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating."
Make of it what you will.
Or a projected chart could probably be found on the net.
Because they dumb... Blissful ignorance on their part. That may change as they start to make motors in-house more.And ask yourself this; why have the other minerals required for EV production gone up while copper falls? Why are battery and vehicle manufacturers racing to secure lithium, nickel and cobalt, but not copper?
Here is my copper chart: -
- The price will not move by itself
- The price is correct
- Everybody knows Copper inventory is low at one end and high at the other
Just depends where you buy your copper, some even steal it from the live power poles.
DYOR
View attachment 145026
Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.Don't really know where the prices will fluctuate in the short to mid term...
But I think there will be increased copper demand if the world is slowly moving away from fossil fuels and in with the electrification of everything from EVs to solar/wind powered grid etc. EV motors and wind turbines use tons of Cu for example. Is there going to be enough supply from mining and recycling well into the future ?
I wouldn’t say copper/Aluminium substitution sets a ceiling on the copper price, because there are so many areas where copper can’t be substituted, but substitution is a factor that will destroy some demand as the price rises.Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.
but isn't energy costs the big millstone around aluminum's neck ( more so than copper ) surely energy costs will track the price of copper unless the world switches to more nuclear powerAluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.
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