Not often being one to be critical of the government, labor or liberal, one thing that has struck me about the budget this year is the assumption of continued balance of trade in Australia's favour for many years. The government is assuming that the resources boom will continue for at least 5 years, some have been quoted on figures of 15 to 30 years.
The fundamentals of many resources that Australia has in abundance does look positive but statistically resource booms have not lasted anywhere near 15 years in the past and are usually lucky to last 5 years before increased supply triggers market correction.
Things are "different" today, there is much less of the stuff out there and never have so many emerging economies thirsted for so much metal and coal but similar arguments that "this time things are different" have been heard before in many booms for many hundreds of years and usually close to the apex. Remember, China does not want to have to pay top dollar for our rocks, if they can find an alternative solution they will do so!
Interested in forum oppinion on the likelyhood of a sustained resource boom as the government is assuming.
PS. I am not talking about precious metals which have different fundamental drivers, im talking about the big exports of Coal, Iron Ore and Base Metals.
The fundamentals of many resources that Australia has in abundance does look positive but statistically resource booms have not lasted anywhere near 15 years in the past and are usually lucky to last 5 years before increased supply triggers market correction.
Things are "different" today, there is much less of the stuff out there and never have so many emerging economies thirsted for so much metal and coal but similar arguments that "this time things are different" have been heard before in many booms for many hundreds of years and usually close to the apex. Remember, China does not want to have to pay top dollar for our rocks, if they can find an alternative solution they will do so!
Interested in forum oppinion on the likelyhood of a sustained resource boom as the government is assuming.
PS. I am not talking about precious metals which have different fundamental drivers, im talking about the big exports of Coal, Iron Ore and Base Metals.
