CBH - CBH Resources

[CanOz]

Nizar, what other zinc stocks do you like?

What are your thoughts on MLS?

Cheers,

 

[dj_420]

interesting when comparing CBH with ZFX and KZL over a number of timeframes. when compared on two years ZFX and KZL have clearly outperformed CBH.

however when we compare on the last years performance CBH has outperformed ZFX in terms of percentage gained. when we compare to KZL, KZL has outperformed CBH but as late CBH is closing the gap in regards to percentage gained.

these differences are obviously due to size etc, as the stock increases in market cap to a very large size obvisouly sp growth will slow in comparison.

IMO if the current trend continues CBH will accelerate and overtake other zinc stocks in terms of percentage gained due to the fact that the sp is increasing from comparitavely low levels.

 

[nizar]

Nizar, what other zinc stocks do you like?

What are your thoughts on MLS?

Cheers,

My favourite is KZL. ZFX's profits for this year i think will suprise even the most bullish of analysts/brokers.

KZL's rate of production growth is really stunning.

 

[2020hindsight]

Zinc is doomed!! I've added some more CBH, ZFX, & KZL too what I already held. Rationally my added exposure will jinx the sp completly.

OTS - you mean we're all on a Zinc-ing ship - I'd have to say its looking more like a space ship - and the sky's the limit!!
...............
Disclaimer - I dont even have to post a disclaimer - everyone knows I'm just guessing when it comes to the facts. But I sure as hell know that, irrespective of whether he's right more often, an optimist sure is happier than a pessimist

 

[nizar]

interesting when comparing CBH with ZFX and KZL over a number of timeframes. when compared on two years ZFX and KZL have clearly outperformed CBH.

however when we compare on the last years performance CBH has outperformed ZFX in terms of percentage gained. when we compare to KZL, KZL has outperformed CBH but as late CBH is closing the gap in regards to percentage gained.

these differences are obviously due to size etc, as the stock increases in market cap to a very large size obvisouly sp growth will slow in comparison.

IMO if the current trend continues CBH will accelerate and overtake other zinc stocks in terms of percentage gained due to the fact that the sp is increasing from comparitavely low levels.

Yeh?
We will see about that.
Notice how KZL doesnt need volume to run, whereas CBH does. CBH's sell side is perenially stacked as there are 800million shares on issue, compared to KZL's 200million.

Im holding both so i couldnt care less to be honest, but i do expect substantial gains from these two...

And whatever happened to those BFS results...

 

[CanOz]

Great charts DJ...

Thanks Nizar.

 

[dj_420]

good points nizar

however, ill make a few assumptions from here.
for CBH to make it to the hartleys valuation of $2.49 (say 2.50) that is an approximate increase on current sp by 350%, which is based on a spot zinc price that remains at high levels which based on fundamentals is achievable.

if we assume the same percentage gains for zinc stocks from here on in that 350% gain would put KZL on $25.90 and ZFX on $53.10, i just dont see earnings justifying those inflated sp.

anyway these are just hypotheticals that i like to throw in there.

 

[nizar]

DJ, i think CBH are substantially undervalued due not only to their earnings, but their production growth profile.

They should valued more more KZL and less like ZFX.

If zinc averages us$2/lb this year, KZL i suspect will earn $1/share NPAT (maybe even a 10c divvy or something? but im not fussed - im here for capital gains). PE of 20 is fair enough for a company that will grow earnings at 40%+ for the next 3 years. So $20/share.

CBH maybe will earn 15c at those zinc prices. PE of 20 (as they will have substantial earnings growth) and u get $3/share.

So more upside with CBH, correct.

Of course the above is only my opinion and the way i see things personally. It does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a professional financial advisor before investing.

 

[michael_selway]

DJ, i think CBH are substantially undervalued due not only to their earnings, but their production growth profile.

They should valued more more KZL and less like ZFX.

If zinc averages us$2/lb this year, KZL i suspect will earn $1/share NPAT (maybe even a 10c divvy or something? but im not fussed - im here for capital gains). PE of 20 is fair enough for a company that will grow earnings at 40%+ for the next 3 years. So $20/share.

CBH maybe will earn 15c at those zinc prices. PE of 20 (as they will have substantial earnings growth) and u get $3/share.

So more upside with CBH, correct.

Of course the above is only my opinion and the way i see things personally. It does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a professional financial advisor before investing.

PE of 20 is too high? are you talking about 1 yr fwd PE?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -2.8 12.9 17.4 16.8
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 12.9 5.5 --
Year Ending 30-06-08 17.4 4.1 34.9%

thx

MS

 

[johnmwu3]

CBH company presentation :
Endeavour mine is in full production in Dec. quarter of 2006, and forecast production for 2006-2007 is :
Zin: 64000t
Lead : 33000t
With Zin and Lead price up, CBH will be soaring.
Any opp.?
John3

 

[coladuna]

Grrr.... Sold both CBH and JML at around 58 cents. So pissed to see these two stocks skyrocket after holding them for months.

 

[dj_420]

even if both CBH and JML display some short term weakness they are still in a definate uptrend that is hugely supported by zinc fundamentals. im holding these until well into 2007 and from there will see what the future for zinc stocks holds.

CBH showed some consolidation today and closed a little weaker, any short term weakness is IMO short term and it will only be a matter of time before buyers are back to push the sp along.

zinc spot is up again tonight so maybe zinc stocks will show some more consolidation at these levels before running again. they certainly wont drop to far based on market fundamentals. who knows zinc stocks could be off and running again tomorrow.

 

[sleeper88]

morning all, looks like CBH is on the run again with good volume for the first 50mins of trading, already up 4c to 75.5c with a volume of approx 1.8m Fingers crossed it'll touch 80c today

 

[hypnotic]

even if both CBH and JML display some short term weakness they are still in a definate uptrend that is hugely supported by zinc fundamentals. im holding these until well into 2007 and from there will see what the future for zinc stocks holds.

CBH showed some consolidation today and closed a little weaker, any short term weakness is IMO short term and it will only be a matter of time before buyers are back to push the sp along.

zinc spot is up again tonight so maybe zinc stocks will show some more consolidation at these levels before running again. they certainly wont drop to far based on market fundamentals. who knows zinc stocks could be off and running again tomorrow.

Yeap you got it right dj,

Zinc prices are pushing up and today CBH going for a little run up around 6% to a peak of 76cents

while JML still consolidating around 83 cent....

I am with you i am holding these for a bit longer i think and after reading your post from FAT about JML , i am pretty certain they will be very attractive shares for the medium term.

 

[nizar]

Yes a good day today.
I was thinking maybe sell this week as next week possible correction due to US conspiracy elections etc, but now i think im gonna keep them.

If anything happens next week ill just free up some funds to buy more.

I have a feeling this price will be a joke in 6 months time, or even in a year time when they announce their profits.

 

[Out Too Soon]

I'm thinking of selling my BHP & SUL to buy more zinc, makes more sense than selling ZFX,KZL or CBH. I'm also sitting on JML, PLA & AGS not zinc but nicely rocketing resources all the same, just wish I had more invested/to invest. :/

 

[CanOz]

Yes a good day today.
I was thinking maybe sell this week as next week possible correction due to US conspiracy elections etc, but now i think im gonna keep them.

If anything happens next week ill just free up some funds to buy more.

I have a feeling this price will be a joke in 6 months time, or even in a year time when they announce their profits.

Nizar, do you trail stops?

 

[nizar]

Nizar, do you trail stops?

No I dont. I dont use stops at all. I take more of a long term view. That said, my exits do need to be refined. But after my last exams next week iv got a very long break, so i want to try to create, trial and test a plan which will allow me to daytrade. My TA knowledge is rather lacking, but iv got myself a few books. But systems trading is what im really keen on. POWER etrade i think is really handy, and im trialling it at the moment. Lets you see whats moving the second it starts moving (of course so does any real-time broker)

When do u use a trailing stop?
When u are in good profit? and where do u place it? Below at ATR or long term moving average?

 

[peterke]

Best place for a trialing stop is 1 or 2 points below last major low point. For a really tight trail place it one or two points below low of last day or two.

Trailing closes can be a pain if you set them too tight as you may get closed out before you want.

regards

Peter

 

[michael_selway]

Yes a good day today.
I was thinking maybe sell this week as next week possible correction due to US conspiracy elections etc, but now i think im gonna keep them.

If anything happens next week ill just free up some funds to buy more.

I have a feeling this price will be a joke in 6 months time, or even in a year time when they announce their profits.

Yep but need to keep an eye on "on warrant", hasnt moved down much this week or 2, altough nto much "ins", so shoudl be ok

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -2.8 10.2 9.7 16.8
DPS -- 0.0 4.0 10.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 10.2 7.5 --
Year Ending 30-06-08 9.7 7.8 -4.9%

thx

MS