CBH - CBH Resources
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i wouldnt say come back with a thud, it still closed two cents above yesterdays close. the sp has hardly had time to have a breather.
testing new highs, ten million traded, you cant expect a stock to close on intraday highs every day. i thought today was a good day for CBH, there were obviously profit taking late into the afternoon but sp still up of yesterdays close.
it has already run through heavy resistance to break 40 cents, then heavy resistance to break 50 cents, resistance in early 50's then broken through previous high to 60 cents plus.
zinc spot has climbed again overnight, and SS BFS due very soon i would imagine. looked over qtrly and thought it was great, shows what projects are in the pipeline and exp tennements.
IMO the sp is going very nicely and things are looking fantastic for CBH.
testing new highs, ten million traded, you cant expect a stock to close on intraday highs every day. i thought today was a good day for CBH, there were obviously profit taking late into the afternoon but sp still up of yesterdays close.
it has already run through heavy resistance to break 40 cents, then heavy resistance to break 50 cents, resistance in early 50's then broken through previous high to 60 cents plus.
zinc spot has climbed again overnight, and SS BFS due very soon i would imagine. looked over qtrly and thought it was great, shows what projects are in the pipeline and exp tennements.
IMO the sp is going very nicely and things are looking fantastic for CBH.
Realist
Billie Jean is not my lover
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Royce said:
Can I borrow some money from you?
Say a small $100,000....
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Question ...
Logic demands that a stock wont go up every day for weeks on end. (doesnt it ? lol - sorry I have this naive expectation that logic and the market have something - anything - in common)
So when do we get the next zigzag? - sell today , buy in a day or 3?
(editors note : only a bludy newbie would use a word like zigzag, I think he means "triple lightning bolt with pike")
As Elma Fudd said to Bugs Bunny at the entrance to the cave " Ohhh Great Hunting Spirit, Tell me what to do".
So far I've tried tealeaves , sheep entrails, and rooster blood - STILL waiting for a SIGN here !!!
Lol - I'm gettin greedy I know - guess Im in for the long haul - review after Xmas maybe ?
Logic demands that a stock wont go up every day for weeks on end. (doesnt it ? lol - sorry I have this naive expectation that logic and the market have something - anything - in common)
So when do we get the next zigzag? - sell today , buy in a day or 3?
(editors note : only a bludy newbie would use a word like zigzag, I think he means "triple lightning bolt with pike")
As Elma Fudd said to Bugs Bunny at the entrance to the cave " Ohhh Great Hunting Spirit, Tell me what to do".
So far I've tried tealeaves , sheep entrails, and rooster blood - STILL waiting for a SIGN here !!!
Lol - I'm gettin greedy I know - guess Im in for the long haul
- review after Xmas maybe ?
Out Too Soon
My real name is King Julian ;)
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Does CBH have a web site? I tried connecting from the ASX page but no connection.
Wish I'd bought some more.
Wish I'd bought some more.Out Too Soon said:Does CBH have a web site? I tried connecting from the ASX page but no connection.
here's their website http://www.cbhresources.com.au/
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Royce said:
actually do u know what, i think it can
Its called "irrational exuberance", but thats what happens if real supply cant meet real demand
thx
MS
Out Too Soon
My real name is King Julian ;)
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Thanks Sleeper, my IE browser gives me a blank blu frame I'll get arond it using my Opera browser, strange never mind. Bad day for nervous traders today even CBH has dropped a cent or 2 so I just topped up with some more
MARKET FEATURE
INVESTMENT
The commodity bull run is still in its early stages
October 27, 2006
By Bruce Tinney
The recent major themes of earnings growth, extraordinary cash flow and corporate activity should remain in place for the resources sector.
Strong, concerted growth in global industrial production has been the driving force behind the strength in commodity prices for the past three years.
Chinese industrial production, which grew at around 10 percent a year during the late 1990s, stepped up a gear to 20 percent. At the same time, Group of Seven (G7) industrial production recovered from the weakness in 2002, growing at an above-trend rate since 2004.
We are in the early stages of a long-term bull market for commodities, which should progress as Asia moves up the development curve. The per capita consumption of commodities for China and India is well below that of developed economies.
Recently, however, the G7 leading indicator has turned down, and globally we are now at the mature end of the current business cycle.
Historically, metal prices have declined when the US Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates. Oil prices have already corrected, and base metals are expected to follow. It is interesting that the price:earnings ratio of BHP Billiton, the largest miner in the world, is 11.5 times.
This is the same rating on which the company traded at the start of this commodity cycle early in 2003. In other words, the market is rating the company as if this is the end of the cycle, and earnings have peaked. No recognition is being awarded for its extraordinary cash flows, management initiatives, portfolio positioning or project pipeline.
The surge in demand for commodities followed years of underinvestment in production capacity, consequently new supply has simply failed to meet demand, as evidenced by falling metal inventories.
The poor supply-side response is not a short-term phenomenon; as capital and operating costs are rising and quali- fied people are in short supply.
Consequently, a return to previous trough price levels for commodities is not anticipated and the major themes for the mining industry should remain in place. The rand will continue to weaken, acting as a hedge against any dollar commodity price weakness.
At the half-year, the resource companies reported year-on-year earnings growth in excess of 40 percent.
While earnings growth momentum for the diversified mining sector should peak in the first half of 2007, forward earnings growth for the platinum and gold producers could be substantial, even at lower metal prices, and forward price:earnings multiples are well below historical averages.
The feature of the mid-year reporting season was the high level of free cash flow, and resulting strength of the balance sheets for the resource firms.
Over the next 18 months, mining companies should continue to generate above-normal levels of discretionary cash flow at a time when balance sheets are relatively ungeared and mining projects are in short supply.
The excess cash should flow back to shareholders via lower dividend cover, share buy-backs, or special dividends.
The corporate activity stage of this economic cycle is under way, with some large deals, including CVRD's $15.16 billion (R114 billion) cash offer for Canadian mining house Inco.
In the absence of greenfields investments, there should be further consolidation of the industry.
Beneficiaries of corporate action could include Kumba, and some of the smaller platinum miners.
Bruce Tinney is a resources analyst at BoE Private Clients
INVESTMENT
The commodity bull run is still in its early stages
October 27, 2006
By Bruce Tinney
The recent major themes of earnings growth, extraordinary cash flow and corporate activity should remain in place for the resources sector.
Strong, concerted growth in global industrial production has been the driving force behind the strength in commodity prices for the past three years.
Chinese industrial production, which grew at around 10 percent a year during the late 1990s, stepped up a gear to 20 percent. At the same time, Group of Seven (G7) industrial production recovered from the weakness in 2002, growing at an above-trend rate since 2004.
We are in the early stages of a long-term bull market for commodities, which should progress as Asia moves up the development curve. The per capita consumption of commodities for China and India is well below that of developed economies.
Recently, however, the G7 leading indicator has turned down, and globally we are now at the mature end of the current business cycle.
Historically, metal prices have declined when the US Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates. Oil prices have already corrected, and base metals are expected to follow. It is interesting that the price:earnings ratio of BHP Billiton, the largest miner in the world, is 11.5 times.
This is the same rating on which the company traded at the start of this commodity cycle early in 2003. In other words, the market is rating the company as if this is the end of the cycle, and earnings have peaked. No recognition is being awarded for its extraordinary cash flows, management initiatives, portfolio positioning or project pipeline.
The surge in demand for commodities followed years of underinvestment in production capacity, consequently new supply has simply failed to meet demand, as evidenced by falling metal inventories.
The poor supply-side response is not a short-term phenomenon; as capital and operating costs are rising and quali- fied people are in short supply.
Consequently, a return to previous trough price levels for commodities is not anticipated and the major themes for the mining industry should remain in place. The rand will continue to weaken, acting as a hedge against any dollar commodity price weakness.
At the half-year, the resource companies reported year-on-year earnings growth in excess of 40 percent.
While earnings growth momentum for the diversified mining sector should peak in the first half of 2007, forward earnings growth for the platinum and gold producers could be substantial, even at lower metal prices, and forward price:earnings multiples are well below historical averages.
The feature of the mid-year reporting season was the high level of free cash flow, and resulting strength of the balance sheets for the resource firms.
Over the next 18 months, mining companies should continue to generate above-normal levels of discretionary cash flow at a time when balance sheets are relatively ungeared and mining projects are in short supply.
The excess cash should flow back to shareholders via lower dividend cover, share buy-backs, or special dividends.
The corporate activity stage of this economic cycle is under way, with some large deals, including CVRD's $15.16 billion (R114 billion) cash offer for Canadian mining house Inco.
In the absence of greenfields investments, there should be further consolidation of the industry.
Beneficiaries of corporate action could include Kumba, and some of the smaller platinum miners.
Bruce Tinney is a resources analyst at BoE Private Clients
Zinc Prices set to continue to explode
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, October 27, 2006
Zinc Prices are up 13% over former highs!
Since I'm such a long term thinker and planner, I'm not used to making predictions that come true so strongly within a month, except when I write up a stock, which can move up 30% the next day.
In my last report on Oct. 11th,
http://silverstockreport.com/email/zinc_lead.html
I wrote that zinc prices were breaking out to new highs, above $1.70/lb., and today, a mere 16 days later, zinc prices hit $1.92/lb., 13% higher.
Most investors don't care about zinc, or don't understand the fundamentals. I'll try to keep it simple.
Zinc inventories at the LME are the primary location for zinc stockpiles in the world. Zinc inventories are being rapidly depleted from a high of about 700,000 metric tonnes in 2004, and yet now stand at just over 100,000 tonnes.
Source:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html
(You have to check out the kitco graphs at the link above, it says everything!)
These zinc tonnes are 3.5 days worth of world demand, and will last about 100 days. Confused? The 3.5-day figure assumes all zinc mining in the world stops completely. The 100-day figure assumes zinc mining will continue, and that the deficit between demand and supply will consume the stockpile in about 100 days, unless things change in the next 100 days.
The only thing that can change, and must change, is the zinc price. Prices must rise to choke off world zinc demand.
Think about that for a moment. Mildly rising interest rates are probably not capable of slowing down the growth of the world economy. It has come down to the lack of zinc that is more likely going to do it, because about 75% of zinc is used to galvanize steel, for use in things like cars and building construction.
The annual deficit in zinc is about 420,000 metric tonnes.
Source:
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=144642
Again, you can see that the 113,000 tonnes of zinc left will only last just over 3 months, unless prices rise high enough to choke off world zinc demand.
The reason why mine supply will not increase in the next 3 months is that it takes about 5-10 years to bring new mines to production. In short, people do not understand how slow, how difficult, and how expensive it is to rev up the "old economy". It's not as easy as throwing up a web site, or writing an article, or buying a stock tomorrow. Even if many of the zinc projects were fully funded, and they are not, it would still take years from today to increase zinc production!
Many of the zinc market leaders are saying that it will take at least 2 years from today to increase zinc production. That includes projects in the mine construction phase, such as Apex Silver in Bolivia, which seems to be having trouble with the newly elected Bolivian dictator repeatedly saying he will confiscate the entire mining industry! Many zinc production estimates were counting on projects such as Yukon Zinc's Wolverine deposit coming to production, which recently hit feasibility difficulties. Feasibility was also delayed on Metalline Mining, which recently announced that they may take up to 12 to 18 months more to complete feasibility. And after feasibility then comes project financing, which may take 6-12 months, and then mine construction that can also take a few years!
I'm absolutely convinced that we must see a bubble in zinc prices within the next 3 months to choke off world zinc demand, or else we will run out of zinc. Furthermore, such higher zinc prices must stay high for the next 2 years! The reason is that the paper futures market manipulators cannot short to death a physical commodity that requires delivery! But zinc prices may continue higher even after 2 years! Two years from now, supply and demand still may, or may not, be in balance, but we can evaluate things then. Or even within 3 months!
The 3-month zinc supply must last 2 years--8 times longer than current rates of depletion indicate!
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, October 27, 2006
Zinc Prices are up 13% over former highs!
Since I'm such a long term thinker and planner, I'm not used to making predictions that come true so strongly within a month, except when I write up a stock, which can move up 30% the next day.
In my last report on Oct. 11th,
http://silverstockreport.com/email/zinc_lead.html
I wrote that zinc prices were breaking out to new highs, above $1.70/lb., and today, a mere 16 days later, zinc prices hit $1.92/lb., 13% higher.
Most investors don't care about zinc, or don't understand the fundamentals. I'll try to keep it simple.
Zinc inventories at the LME are the primary location for zinc stockpiles in the world. Zinc inventories are being rapidly depleted from a high of about 700,000 metric tonnes in 2004, and yet now stand at just over 100,000 tonnes.
Source:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html
(You have to check out the kitco graphs at the link above, it says everything!)
These zinc tonnes are 3.5 days worth of world demand, and will last about 100 days. Confused? The 3.5-day figure assumes all zinc mining in the world stops completely. The 100-day figure assumes zinc mining will continue, and that the deficit between demand and supply will consume the stockpile in about 100 days, unless things change in the next 100 days.
The only thing that can change, and must change, is the zinc price. Prices must rise to choke off world zinc demand.
Think about that for a moment. Mildly rising interest rates are probably not capable of slowing down the growth of the world economy. It has come down to the lack of zinc that is more likely going to do it, because about 75% of zinc is used to galvanize steel, for use in things like cars and building construction.
The annual deficit in zinc is about 420,000 metric tonnes.
Source:
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=144642
Again, you can see that the 113,000 tonnes of zinc left will only last just over 3 months, unless prices rise high enough to choke off world zinc demand.
The reason why mine supply will not increase in the next 3 months is that it takes about 5-10 years to bring new mines to production. In short, people do not understand how slow, how difficult, and how expensive it is to rev up the "old economy". It's not as easy as throwing up a web site, or writing an article, or buying a stock tomorrow. Even if many of the zinc projects were fully funded, and they are not, it would still take years from today to increase zinc production!
Many of the zinc market leaders are saying that it will take at least 2 years from today to increase zinc production. That includes projects in the mine construction phase, such as Apex Silver in Bolivia, which seems to be having trouble with the newly elected Bolivian dictator repeatedly saying he will confiscate the entire mining industry! Many zinc production estimates were counting on projects such as Yukon Zinc's Wolverine deposit coming to production, which recently hit feasibility difficulties. Feasibility was also delayed on Metalline Mining, which recently announced that they may take up to 12 to 18 months more to complete feasibility. And after feasibility then comes project financing, which may take 6-12 months, and then mine construction that can also take a few years!
I'm absolutely convinced that we must see a bubble in zinc prices within the next 3 months to choke off world zinc demand, or else we will run out of zinc. Furthermore, such higher zinc prices must stay high for the next 2 years! The reason is that the paper futures market manipulators cannot short to death a physical commodity that requires delivery! But zinc prices may continue higher even after 2 years! Two years from now, supply and demand still may, or may not, be in balance, but we can evaluate things then. Or even within 3 months!
The 3-month zinc supply must last 2 years--8 times longer than current rates of depletion indicate!
Out Too Soon
My real name is King Julian ;)
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Zinc is doomed!!
I've added some more CBH, ZFX, & KZL too what I already held. Rationally my added exposure will jinx the sp completly.:
OK! not really.
I've added some more CBH, ZFX, & KZL too what I already held. Rationally my added exposure will jinx the sp completly.
: OK! not really.
There is a good discussion of the next "nickel" sector - zinc - in this week's Minesite weekly roundup which is here in full.
That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?
Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.
Minews. A few price examples please?
Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.
Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?
Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.
Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?
Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.
Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?
Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.
Minews. Much on the downside?
Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.
http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3894
That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?
Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.
Minews. A few price examples please?
Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.
Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?
Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.
Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?
Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.
Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?
Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.
Minews. Much on the downside?
Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.
http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3894
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I've just topped up twice at 70 cents. I had a buy at 65 cents over the weekend thinking the week might start in a bit of a downturn. I was wrong.
If It breaks through the low 70's are we looking at consolodating at about 80 cents?
Cheers,
If It breaks through the low 70's are we looking at consolodating at about 80 cents?
Cheers,
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Am I right in thinking this stock is not finished yet? We should see some kind off blow off high before it consolidates/reverses correct? (not that a reversal is on the cards given zinc’s strength) Any EW enthusiasts want to have a guess at the top of this trend?
I'm unsure of an exit point and would appreciate some opinions.
I'm unsure of an exit point and would appreciate some opinions.
Some TA people over at S/S reckon 0.92 is the target.
92c on the current run is described as "the best possible result"
I havent thought what to do with these yet but im leaning towards bottom drawer. I wanna see what happens to zinc stocks where the stocks get to below 50ktonnes.
92c on the current run is described as "the best possible result"
I havent thought what to do with these yet but im leaning towards bottom drawer. I wanna see what happens to zinc stocks where the stocks get to below 50ktonnes.
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